This study employs the two-stage difference-in-differences (2sDiD) estimator to investigate the causal effect of economic sanctions on political stability. It contributes to existing research by (1) re-evaluating sanctions' impacts on political stability using newly introduced causal inference methods, and (2) distinguishing the effects of sanctions across various political regimes and economic globalisation levels. The article argues that economic sanctions create economic hardships for the target population, leading to public frustration toward their governments, which stimulates political mobilisation and thereby decreases the country's political stability. However, sanctions hurt democracies more than autocracies because autocratic regimes can suppress public dissent through repression and citizens face higher costs for opposition. Moreover, economic globalisation offers targets alternatives to sanctioned products and services, potentially weakening sanctions thus damaging political stability more in low-globalised than in high-globalised countries. Empirical findings from 9230 country-year observations between 1949 and 2022 largely align with the theoretical predictions, showing that economic sanctions undermine the target's political stability, with these destabilising effects contingent upon its political regime and economic globalisation levels.
{"title":"The causal effect of economic sanctions on political stability: A two-stage difference-in-differences analysis","authors":"Dongan Tan","doi":"10.1111/ijsw.12707","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ijsw.12707","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study employs the two-stage difference-in-differences (2sDiD) estimator to investigate the causal effect of economic sanctions on political stability. It contributes to existing research by (1) re-evaluating sanctions' impacts on political stability using newly introduced causal inference methods, and (2) distinguishing the effects of sanctions across various political regimes and economic globalisation levels. The article argues that economic sanctions create economic hardships for the target population, leading to public frustration toward their governments, which stimulates political mobilisation and thereby decreases the country's political stability. However, sanctions hurt democracies more than autocracies because autocratic regimes can suppress public dissent through repression and citizens face higher costs for opposition. Moreover, economic globalisation offers targets alternatives to sanctioned products and services, potentially weakening sanctions thus damaging political stability more in low-globalised than in high-globalised countries. Empirical findings from 9230 country-year observations between 1949 and 2022 largely align with the theoretical predictions, showing that economic sanctions undermine the target's political stability, with these destabilising effects contingent upon its political regime and economic globalisation levels.</p>","PeriodicalId":47567,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Social Welfare","volume":"34 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-11-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ijsw.12707","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142860222","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Lara Maestripieri, Alba Lanau, Roger Soler-i-Martí, Míriam Acebillo-Baqué
The growth of non-standard employment has emerged as a crucial factor that contributes to delays and difficulties in young people's transitions to adulthood. Previous studies have demonstrated the importance of multidimensional measures of precariousness. This paper aims to investigate the phenomenon of precariousness holistically, using an original database of respondents in Spain from 20 to 34 years of age. Using a mixed-methods approach, we explore young people's understandings of precariousness and examine its key determinants and consequences. The findings illustrate the multidimensional nature of feelings of precariousness, with economic insecurity and work conditions being core elements. Our results point to precarity stemming from a combination of inextricably intertwined objective and subjective components, as well as work and economic dimensions.
{"title":"Intertwined precariousness and precarity: Disentangling a phenomenon that characterises Spanish youth","authors":"Lara Maestripieri, Alba Lanau, Roger Soler-i-Martí, Míriam Acebillo-Baqué","doi":"10.1111/ijsw.12709","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ijsw.12709","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The growth of non-standard employment has emerged as a crucial factor that contributes to delays and difficulties in young people's transitions to adulthood. Previous studies have demonstrated the importance of multidimensional measures of precariousness. This paper aims to investigate the phenomenon of precariousness holistically, using an original database of respondents in Spain from 20 to 34 years of age. Using a mixed-methods approach, we explore young people's understandings of precariousness and examine its key determinants and consequences. The findings illustrate the multidimensional nature of feelings of precariousness, with economic insecurity and work conditions being core elements. Our results point to precarity stemming from a combination of inextricably intertwined objective and subjective components, as well as work and economic dimensions.</p>","PeriodicalId":47567,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Social Welfare","volume":"34 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ijsw.12709","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142862272","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The recent literature on platform work and the welfare state has stressed that, despite being affected by high-income insecurity, platform workers cannot easily access social protection. However, it is unclear why platform workers encounter such barriers. This article offers an inductive and empirically based theoretical framework to investigate the obstacles faced by platform workers. It shows that the barriers experienced by platform workers depend on the eligibility criteria, the assessment criteria and the trade-off between taxation and social protection. The article substantiates these claims by offering both a policy analysis of formal arrangements and a qualitative analysis of the lived experiences of welfare of 101 platform workers in Italy, Sweden and the UK during COVID-19. The research found that, while many platform workers attempted to access social protection during COVID-19, platform workers' access to social protection was affected by their positionality as outsiders, which clashes with the eligibility criteria (in Sweden and Italy); by the irregular nature of platform work, which contrasts with the rigidity of the assessment criteria (in the UK, Italy and Sweden); and by the implicit trade-off experienced by platform workers between minimising taxation and accessing to social protection (in the UK and Italy).
{"title":"The lived experiences of the welfare state of platform workers: The barriers to accessing social protection in Italy, Sweden and the United Kingdom","authors":"Lorenza Antonucci","doi":"10.1111/ijsw.12708","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ijsw.12708","url":null,"abstract":"<p>The recent literature on platform work and the welfare state has stressed that, despite being affected by high-income insecurity, platform workers cannot easily access social protection. However, it is unclear why platform workers encounter such barriers. This article offers an inductive and empirically based theoretical framework to investigate the obstacles faced by platform workers. It shows that the barriers experienced by platform workers depend on the eligibility criteria, the assessment criteria and the trade-off between taxation and social protection. The article substantiates these claims by offering both a policy analysis of formal arrangements and a qualitative analysis of the lived experiences of welfare of 101 platform workers in Italy, Sweden and the UK during COVID-19. The research found that, while many platform workers attempted to access social protection during COVID-19, platform workers' access to social protection was affected by their positionality as outsiders, which clashes with the eligibility criteria (in Sweden and Italy); by the irregular nature of platform work, which contrasts with the rigidity of the assessment criteria (in the UK, Italy and Sweden); and by the implicit trade-off experienced by platform workers between minimising taxation and accessing to social protection (in the UK and Italy).</p>","PeriodicalId":47567,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Social Welfare","volume":"34 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ijsw.12708","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142862161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Legislation governs both the admittance and treatment of forced migrants in the United States. Increasingly, many forced migrants are offered few welfare benefits, temporary protection, and no pathway to permanent residency. This paper explores forced migrants' legal categories and access to social welfare, focusing on five humanitarian protection statuses: Temporary Protected Status, Humanitarian Parole, Asylum Seeker, Refugee, and Asylee. Based on the concepts of welfare nationalism and the Protestant Work Ethic, our historical analysis examines the Welfare Reform Act of 1996 to see how this landmark legislation shaped access to welfare for noncitizens. We then focus on the emergence of humanitarian statuses since the 1950s and the legislation that constructed them. We conclude that immigration legislation governing forced migrants underlies an ideology of deserving, where some are treated as more meritorious than others. Thus, we call for welfare scholars to elevate immigration status as a key category in their research.
{"title":"An ideology of deserving: A historical analysis of the United States' immigration policies governing forced migration and social welfare","authors":"Alexander Bervik, Anna Ferris","doi":"10.1111/ijsw.12706","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ijsw.12706","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Legislation governs both the admittance and treatment of forced migrants in the United States. Increasingly, many forced migrants are offered few welfare benefits, temporary protection, and no pathway to permanent residency. This paper explores forced migrants' legal categories and access to social welfare, focusing on five humanitarian protection statuses: Temporary Protected Status, Humanitarian Parole, Asylum Seeker, Refugee, and Asylee. Based on the concepts of welfare nationalism and the Protestant Work Ethic, our historical analysis examines the Welfare Reform Act of 1996 to see how this landmark legislation shaped access to welfare for noncitizens. We then focus on the emergence of humanitarian statuses since the 1950s and the legislation that constructed them. We conclude that immigration legislation governing forced migrants underlies an ideology of deserving, where some are treated as more meritorious than others. Thus, we call for welfare scholars to elevate immigration status as a key category in their research.</p>","PeriodicalId":47567,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Social Welfare","volume":"34 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ijsw.12706","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143118990","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Andreea Ioana Alecu, Idunn Brekke, Henrik Holmstrøm, Astri Syse
Caring for a disabled child involves both indirect and direct economic costs, which in turn may create a financial burden for the family. Using Norway as a case, we examine if public compensatory measures reach those most in need, by assessing whether socioeconomic disadvantages and immigrant background impact adversely on the uptake of a nationally available cash benefits eligible for parents caring for a child with a disability. We take advantage of national administrative register data on children with a selection of well-defined diagnoses born between 2009 and 2017 (N = 14,469). Our results show nonnegligible, but relatively minor, social inequalities in the uptake of cash benefits related to socioeconomic and immigrant background. Our findings indicate that this state's financial support seems to reach those most in need. However, it is essential to deepen our understanding of how socioeconomic and immigrant backgrounds influence access to and utilization of municipal healthcare services. Notably, the application process for these services often involves a greater degree of discretion on the part of welfare professionals. Further research is needed to illuminate the nuanced dynamics of these factors in the context of accessing healthcare services at the local level.
{"title":"Uptake of cash benefits among children with a disability in Norway: The role of parental socioeconomic characteristics and immigrant background","authors":"Andreea Ioana Alecu, Idunn Brekke, Henrik Holmstrøm, Astri Syse","doi":"10.1111/ijsw.12705","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ijsw.12705","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Caring for a disabled child involves both indirect and direct economic costs, which in turn may create a financial burden for the family. Using Norway as a case, we examine if public compensatory measures reach those most in need, by assessing whether socioeconomic disadvantages and immigrant background impact adversely on the uptake of a nationally available cash benefits eligible for parents caring for a child with a disability. We take advantage of national administrative register data on children with a selection of well-defined diagnoses born between 2009 and 2017 (<i>N</i> = 14,469). Our results show nonnegligible, but relatively minor, social inequalities in the uptake of cash benefits related to socioeconomic and immigrant background. Our findings indicate that this state's financial support seems to reach those most in need. However, it is essential to deepen our understanding of how socioeconomic and immigrant backgrounds influence access to and utilization of municipal healthcare services. Notably, the application process for these services often involves a greater degree of discretion on the part of welfare professionals. Further research is needed to illuminate the nuanced dynamics of these factors in the context of accessing healthcare services at the local level.</p>","PeriodicalId":47567,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Social Welfare","volume":"34 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ijsw.12705","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143117593","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Non-standard employment (NSE) might offer employment opportunities for unemployed workers, who would not find a job otherwise and can improve their human capital while working in NSE instead of being unemployed. NSE thus could serve as a bridge to regular, permanent employment. However, these stepping stone effects might not occur in a segmented labour market, when the accumulated human capital is not useful for regular jobs or NSE is not a positive signal to potential employers. Using German administrative data and sequence and cluster analysis, this article examined the labour market trajectories of initially unemployed individuals between 2012 and 2015 over a 4-year period with a focus on four common forms of NSE. The results indicate that NSE is not limited to marginal groups but 62% of the initially unemployed belong to a cluster with a substantial share of NSE. Furthermore, while most individuals stay in NSE, some regular full-time employment occurs after NSE.
{"title":"Unemployed and then? The role of non-standard employment in labour market trajectories after unemployment","authors":"Torsten Lietzmann, Katrin Hohmeyer","doi":"10.1111/ijsw.12698","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ijsw.12698","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Non-standard employment (NSE) might offer employment opportunities for unemployed workers, who would not find a job otherwise and can improve their human capital while working in NSE instead of being unemployed. NSE thus could serve as a bridge to regular, permanent employment. However, these stepping stone effects might not occur in a segmented labour market, when the accumulated human capital is not useful for regular jobs or NSE is not a positive signal to potential employers. Using German administrative data and sequence and cluster analysis, this article examined the labour market trajectories of initially unemployed individuals between 2012 and 2015 over a 4-year period with a focus on four common forms of NSE. The results indicate that NSE is not limited to marginal groups but 62% of the initially unemployed belong to a cluster with a substantial share of NSE. Furthermore, while most individuals stay in NSE, some regular full-time employment occurs after NSE.</p>","PeriodicalId":47567,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Social Welfare","volume":"34 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ijsw.12698","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143252498","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates the association between informal employment as a form of non-standard employment and the prevalence of in-work poverty for women in the health sector. We measured in-work poverty using a binary indicator that provides information on whether an individual has earnings above or below the low earnings threshold. The indicator takes into account household size and whether other household members are also in paid work. Using data from the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey for the years 2012 and 2018 and logit models, we found that being employed within the health sector increased the likelihood of in-work poverty among non-standard employees, both men and women. However, higher risks of in-work poverty were witnessed among women working informally in the health sector compared to other sectors. This increased risk was particularly observed when comparing non-standard employment in the health sector to non-standard employment in non-health sectors. Furthermore, marital status plays a critical role in economic wellbeing, with never-married women being more susceptible to in-work poverty compared to ever-married women.
{"title":"Informal employment in the health sector: Examining gender disparities","authors":"Maye Ehab, Fatma Mosaad","doi":"10.1111/ijsw.12704","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ijsw.12704","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper investigates the association between informal employment as a form of non-standard employment and the prevalence of in-work poverty for women in the health sector. We measured in-work poverty using a binary indicator that provides information on whether an individual has earnings above or below the low earnings threshold. The indicator takes into account household size and whether other household members are also in paid work. Using data from the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey for the years 2012 and 2018 and logit models, we found that being employed within the health sector increased the likelihood of in-work poverty among non-standard employees, both men and women. However, higher risks of in-work poverty were witnessed among women working informally in the health sector compared to other sectors. This increased risk was particularly observed when comparing non-standard employment in the health sector to non-standard employment in non-health sectors. Furthermore, marital status plays a critical role in economic wellbeing, with never-married women being more susceptible to in-work poverty compared to ever-married women.</p>","PeriodicalId":47567,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Social Welfare","volume":"34 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ijsw.12704","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143111501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This review essay takes stock of the recent literature about the role of ideas in social policy, with a particular focus on a key issue in social policy research: the changing interactions between states and markets over time. Specifically, our aim is to examine how the ideational literature discusses and explains prominent contemporary social policy evolutions: the rise of social investment and the financialization and technocratization of the welfare state. This is done based on the scholarship on state/market interactions and the role of ideas in social policy, and by utilizing key insights of scholars of ideational influences on state/market interactions. The article ends with a short agenda for future research on ideas and discourses as a crucial factor in the evolution of the welfare state as a key space in which states and markets interact.
{"title":"Ideas and the changing relationship between states and markets in social policy: A review essay","authors":"Daniel Béland, Ronen Mandelkern","doi":"10.1111/ijsw.12701","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ijsw.12701","url":null,"abstract":"<p>This review essay takes stock of the recent literature about the role of ideas in social policy, with a particular focus on a key issue in social policy research: the changing interactions between states and markets over time. Specifically, our aim is to examine how the ideational literature discusses and explains prominent contemporary social policy evolutions: the rise of social investment and the financialization and technocratization of the welfare state. This is done based on the scholarship on state/market interactions and the role of ideas in social policy, and by utilizing key insights of scholars of ideational influences on state/market interactions. The article ends with a short agenda for future research on ideas and discourses as a crucial factor in the evolution of the welfare state as a key space in which states and markets interact.</p>","PeriodicalId":47567,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Social Welfare","volume":"34 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ijsw.12701","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143111018","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Are disengagement risks lower when youths are surrounded by others with similar risk traits? Applying theoretical perspectives of belonging and residential context, this study examines interactional effects between individual and structural risk factors for youth-disengagement. From registry data of 590,085 Norwegians aged 16–24, the study finds less disengagement among youths in municipalities where an above-average rate of individuals shared individual risk-traits of immigrant background, young parenthood, and not completing high school. Youths with parents on social welfare had an increased risk of disengagement in municipalities with above average rates of people on social welfare. Sex-stratified analysis reveals that men and women benefit from belonging to different risk-groups. In challenging the prevailing segmented approach to individual and structural risk factors for youth-disengagement, the findings demonstrate the need for continued examination of gender, belonging and residential context as theoretical perspectives.
{"title":"The importance of belonging: Interactions between individual and structural risk factors for youth-disengagement","authors":"Chris Rønningstad","doi":"10.1111/ijsw.12702","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ijsw.12702","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Are disengagement risks lower when youths are surrounded by others with similar risk traits? Applying theoretical perspectives of belonging and residential context, this study examines interactional effects between individual and structural risk factors for youth-disengagement. From registry data of 590,085 Norwegians aged 16–24, the study finds less disengagement among youths in municipalities where an above-average rate of individuals shared individual risk-traits of immigrant background, young parenthood, and not completing high school. Youths with parents on social welfare had an increased risk of disengagement in municipalities with above average rates of people on social welfare. Sex-stratified analysis reveals that men and women benefit from belonging to different risk-groups. In challenging the prevailing segmented approach to individual and structural risk factors for youth-disengagement, the findings demonstrate the need for continued examination of gender, belonging and residential context as theoretical perspectives.</p>","PeriodicalId":47567,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Social Welfare","volume":"34 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/ijsw.12702","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143248331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yoonsun Han, Jisu Park, Juyoung Song, Deborah Minjee Kang
Recently in South Korea the increasing prevalence of school dropouts and the declining age at which students leave school have drawn renewed attention to this issue. In line with preventive efforts and recognizing early signs of leaving school, the current study aims to identify a set of variables that are most important for understanding the experience of school dropout among South Korean adolescents. Data from two independent panel studies collected by the National Youth Policy Institute in South Korea were merged and analyzed in this study: Korean Children and Youth Panel Study (N = 1646, age = 15.90, girls = 50.73%) and Dropout Youth Panel Study (N = 609, age = 16.84, girls = 56.16%). We applied machine learning algorithms to classify the experience of school dropout using two analytic methods: random forest and decision tree. A total of 36 features from personal, family, school, peer, and community domains were used in the analyses. Specifically, adolescent behavioral characteristics (truancy, smoking, drinking, media use), family structure, teacher relationship, group bullying victimization, and collective efficacy, were consistently identified as significant features of school dropout in random forest and decision tree models. Such information, which highlights a broad spectrum of important factors within adolescents' ecological systems, may provide a scientific knowledge base for school-level prevention efforts. By identifying these features, social workers and educators may develop early warning systems against school dropouts and accurately screen adolescents with high risk.
{"title":"Distinguishing characteristics of out-of-school adolescents in South Korea: A machine learning approach","authors":"Yoonsun Han, Jisu Park, Juyoung Song, Deborah Minjee Kang","doi":"10.1111/ijsw.12699","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1111/ijsw.12699","url":null,"abstract":"<p>Recently in South Korea the increasing prevalence of school dropouts and the declining age at which students leave school have drawn renewed attention to this issue. In line with preventive efforts and recognizing early signs of leaving school, the current study aims to identify a set of variables that are most important for understanding the experience of school dropout among South Korean adolescents. Data from two independent panel studies collected by the National Youth Policy Institute in South Korea were merged and analyzed in this study: Korean Children and Youth Panel Study (<i>N</i> = 1646, age = 15.90, girls = 50.73%) and Dropout Youth Panel Study (<i>N</i> = 609, age = 16.84, girls = 56.16%). We applied machine learning algorithms to classify the experience of school dropout using two analytic methods: random forest and decision tree. A total of 36 features from personal, family, school, peer, and community domains were used in the analyses. Specifically, adolescent behavioral characteristics (truancy, smoking, drinking, media use), family structure, teacher relationship, group bullying victimization, and collective efficacy, were consistently identified as significant features of school dropout in random forest and decision tree models. Such information, which highlights a broad spectrum of important factors within adolescents' ecological systems, may provide a scientific knowledge base for school-level prevention efforts. By identifying these features, social workers and educators may develop early warning systems against school dropouts and accurately screen adolescents with high risk.</p>","PeriodicalId":47567,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Social Welfare","volume":"34 2","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.2,"publicationDate":"2024-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143248330","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}