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The causal effect of economic sanctions on political stability: A two-stage difference-in-differences analysis 经济制裁对政治稳定的因果效应:一个两阶段的差异中差异分析
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q3 SOCIAL WORK Pub Date : 2024-11-06 DOI: 10.1111/ijsw.12707
Dongan Tan

This study employs the two-stage difference-in-differences (2sDiD) estimator to investigate the causal effect of economic sanctions on political stability. It contributes to existing research by (1) re-evaluating sanctions' impacts on political stability using newly introduced causal inference methods, and (2) distinguishing the effects of sanctions across various political regimes and economic globalisation levels. The article argues that economic sanctions create economic hardships for the target population, leading to public frustration toward their governments, which stimulates political mobilisation and thereby decreases the country's political stability. However, sanctions hurt democracies more than autocracies because autocratic regimes can suppress public dissent through repression and citizens face higher costs for opposition. Moreover, economic globalisation offers targets alternatives to sanctioned products and services, potentially weakening sanctions thus damaging political stability more in low-globalised than in high-globalised countries. Empirical findings from 9230 country-year observations between 1949 and 2022 largely align with the theoretical predictions, showing that economic sanctions undermine the target's political stability, with these destabilising effects contingent upon its political regime and economic globalisation levels.

本研究采用两阶段差中差(2sDiD)估计法来探讨经济制裁对政治稳定的因果效应。它通过(1)使用新引入的因果推理方法重新评估制裁对政治稳定的影响,以及(2)区分制裁对不同政治制度和经济全球化水平的影响,为现有研究做出了贡献。文章认为,经济制裁给目标人口造成经济困难,导致公众对其政府感到沮丧,这刺激了政治动员,从而降低了国家的政治稳定。然而,制裁对民主国家的伤害大于专制国家,因为专制政权可以通过镇压压制公众的异议,而公民反对的代价更高。此外,经济全球化为目标提供了受制裁产品和服务的替代方案,可能削弱制裁,从而在低全球化国家比在高全球化国家更严重地破坏政治稳定。从1949年至2022年的9230个国家/年观察得出的实证结果与理论预测基本一致,表明经济制裁破坏了目标国家的政治稳定,这些破坏稳定的影响取决于其政治制度和经济全球化水平。
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引用次数: 0
Intertwined precariousness and precarity: Disentangling a phenomenon that characterises Spanish youth 交织在一起的不稳定和不稳定:解开西班牙青年特征的现象
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q3 SOCIAL WORK Pub Date : 2024-10-28 DOI: 10.1111/ijsw.12709
Lara Maestripieri, Alba Lanau, Roger Soler-i-Martí, Míriam Acebillo-Baqué

The growth of non-standard employment has emerged as a crucial factor that contributes to delays and difficulties in young people's transitions to adulthood. Previous studies have demonstrated the importance of multidimensional measures of precariousness. This paper aims to investigate the phenomenon of precariousness holistically, using an original database of respondents in Spain from 20 to 34 years of age. Using a mixed-methods approach, we explore young people's understandings of precariousness and examine its key determinants and consequences. The findings illustrate the multidimensional nature of feelings of precariousness, with economic insecurity and work conditions being core elements. Our results point to precarity stemming from a combination of inextricably intertwined objective and subjective components, as well as work and economic dimensions.

非标准就业的增长已成为导致年轻人向成年过渡的延迟和困难的关键因素。以前的研究已经证明了多维不稳定性测量的重要性。本文旨在全面调查不稳定现象,使用原始数据库的受访者在西班牙从20至34岁。采用混合方法,我们探索年轻人对不稳定性的理解,并检查其关键决定因素和后果。研究结果说明了不稳定感的多维性,经济不安全感和工作条件是核心因素。我们的研究结果表明,不稳定性源于不可避免地交织在一起的客观和主观因素,以及工作和经济方面。
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引用次数: 0
The lived experiences of the welfare state of platform workers: The barriers to accessing social protection in Italy, Sweden and the United Kingdom 平台工人福利国家的生活经验:意大利、瑞典和英国获得社会保护的障碍
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q3 SOCIAL WORK Pub Date : 2024-10-27 DOI: 10.1111/ijsw.12708
Lorenza Antonucci

The recent literature on platform work and the welfare state has stressed that, despite being affected by high-income insecurity, platform workers cannot easily access social protection. However, it is unclear why platform workers encounter such barriers. This article offers an inductive and empirically based theoretical framework to investigate the obstacles faced by platform workers. It shows that the barriers experienced by platform workers depend on the eligibility criteria, the assessment criteria and the trade-off between taxation and social protection. The article substantiates these claims by offering both a policy analysis of formal arrangements and a qualitative analysis of the lived experiences of welfare of 101 platform workers in Italy, Sweden and the UK during COVID-19. The research found that, while many platform workers attempted to access social protection during COVID-19, platform workers' access to social protection was affected by their positionality as outsiders, which clashes with the eligibility criteria (in Sweden and Italy); by the irregular nature of platform work, which contrasts with the rigidity of the assessment criteria (in the UK, Italy and Sweden); and by the implicit trade-off experienced by platform workers between minimising taxation and accessing to social protection (in the UK and Italy).

最近关于平台工作和福利国家的文献强调,尽管受到高收入不安全感的影响,平台工作人员不容易获得社会保护。然而,目前尚不清楚为什么平台工作人员会遇到这样的障碍。本文提供了一个基于归纳和经验的理论框架来研究平台工人面临的障碍。研究表明,平台工作者所经历的障碍取决于资格标准、评估标准以及税收与社会保护之间的权衡。本文通过对正式安排的政策分析和对意大利、瑞典和英国101名平台工人在COVID-19期间的福利生活经历的定性分析,证实了这些说法。研究发现,虽然许多平台工作人员在COVID-19期间试图获得社会保护,但平台工作人员的社会保护受到其局外人身份的影响,这与资格标准相冲突(在瑞典和意大利);平台工作的不规则性,这与评估标准的刚性(在英国、意大利和瑞典)形成鲜明对比;以及平台工作者在最小化税收和获得社会保护之间的隐性权衡(在英国和意大利)。
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引用次数: 0
An ideology of deserving: A historical analysis of the United States' immigration policies governing forced migration and social welfare 一种应得的意识形态:美国管理强迫移民和社会福利的移民政策的历史分析
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q3 SOCIAL WORK Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1111/ijsw.12706
Alexander Bervik, Anna Ferris

Legislation governs both the admittance and treatment of forced migrants in the United States. Increasingly, many forced migrants are offered few welfare benefits, temporary protection, and no pathway to permanent residency. This paper explores forced migrants' legal categories and access to social welfare, focusing on five humanitarian protection statuses: Temporary Protected Status, Humanitarian Parole, Asylum Seeker, Refugee, and Asylee. Based on the concepts of welfare nationalism and the Protestant Work Ethic, our historical analysis examines the Welfare Reform Act of 1996 to see how this landmark legislation shaped access to welfare for noncitizens. We then focus on the emergence of humanitarian statuses since the 1950s and the legislation that constructed them. We conclude that immigration legislation governing forced migrants underlies an ideology of deserving, where some are treated as more meritorious than others. Thus, we call for welfare scholars to elevate immigration status as a key category in their research.

立法规定了美国境内强迫移民的入境和待遇。越来越多的被迫移民得不到什么福利、临时保护,也没有获得永久居留权的途径。本文探讨了被迫移民的法律类别和获得社会福利的途径,重点关注五种人道主义保护身份:临时保护身份、人道主义假释、寻求庇护者、难民和避难者。基于福利民族主义和新教工作伦理的概念,我们的历史分析考察了1996年的福利改革法案,以了解这一具有里程碑意义的立法如何影响非公民获得福利的机会。然后,我们将重点讨论自20世纪50年代以来人道主义地位的出现以及构成这些地位的立法。我们的结论是,管理强迫移民的移民法构成了一种应得意识形态的基础,其中一些人被认为比其他人更有价值。因此,我们呼吁福利学者将移民身份提升为他们研究的一个关键类别。
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引用次数: 0
Uptake of cash benefits among children with a disability in Norway: The role of parental socioeconomic characteristics and immigrant background 挪威残疾儿童现金福利的吸收:父母社会经济特征和移民背景的作用
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q3 SOCIAL WORK Pub Date : 2024-10-21 DOI: 10.1111/ijsw.12705
Andreea Ioana Alecu, Idunn Brekke, Henrik Holmstrøm, Astri Syse

Caring for a disabled child involves both indirect and direct economic costs, which in turn may create a financial burden for the family. Using Norway as a case, we examine if public compensatory measures reach those most in need, by assessing whether socioeconomic disadvantages and immigrant background impact adversely on the uptake of a nationally available cash benefits eligible for parents caring for a child with a disability. We take advantage of national administrative register data on children with a selection of well-defined diagnoses born between 2009 and 2017 (N = 14,469). Our results show nonnegligible, but relatively minor, social inequalities in the uptake of cash benefits related to socioeconomic and immigrant background. Our findings indicate that this state's financial support seems to reach those most in need. However, it is essential to deepen our understanding of how socioeconomic and immigrant backgrounds influence access to and utilization of municipal healthcare services. Notably, the application process for these services often involves a greater degree of discretion on the part of welfare professionals. Further research is needed to illuminate the nuanced dynamics of these factors in the context of accessing healthcare services at the local level.

照顾残疾儿童涉及间接和直接的经济成本,这反过来又可能给家庭造成经济负担。以挪威为例,我们通过评估社会经济劣势和移民背景是否会对照顾残疾儿童的父母获得全国可用现金福利产生不利影响,来检查公共补偿措施是否能惠及最需要帮助的人。我们利用了2009年至2017年出生的诊断明确的儿童的国家行政登记数据(N = 14,469)。我们的研究结果显示,在与社会经济和移民背景相关的现金福利的吸收方面,社会不平等是不可忽视的,但相对较小。我们的研究结果表明,该州的财政支持似乎惠及了那些最需要帮助的人。然而,有必要加深我们对社会经济背景和移民背景如何影响获得和利用市政医疗保健服务的理解。值得注意的是,这些服务的申请过程往往涉及福利专业人员更大程度的自由裁量权。需要进一步的研究来阐明在地方一级获得医疗保健服务的背景下这些因素的微妙动态。
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引用次数: 0
Unemployed and then? The role of non-standard employment in labour market trajectories after unemployment 然后呢?非标准就业在失业后劳动力市场轨迹中的作用
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q3 SOCIAL WORK Pub Date : 2024-10-11 DOI: 10.1111/ijsw.12698
Torsten Lietzmann, Katrin Hohmeyer

Non-standard employment (NSE) might offer employment opportunities for unemployed workers, who would not find a job otherwise and can improve their human capital while working in NSE instead of being unemployed. NSE thus could serve as a bridge to regular, permanent employment. However, these stepping stone effects might not occur in a segmented labour market, when the accumulated human capital is not useful for regular jobs or NSE is not a positive signal to potential employers. Using German administrative data and sequence and cluster analysis, this article examined the labour market trajectories of initially unemployed individuals between 2012 and 2015 over a 4-year period with a focus on four common forms of NSE. The results indicate that NSE is not limited to marginal groups but 62% of the initially unemployed belong to a cluster with a substantial share of NSE. Furthermore, while most individuals stay in NSE, some regular full-time employment occurs after NSE.

非标准就业(NSE)可能为失业工人提供就业机会,否则他们将找不到工作,并且可以在NSE工作而不是失业时提高他们的人力资本。因此,NSE可以作为通往正式、永久就业的桥梁。然而,当积累的人力资本对常规工作没有用处,或者NSE对潜在雇主不是一个积极的信号时,这些垫脚石效应可能不会在细分的劳动力市场中发生。本文利用德国的行政数据和序列与聚类分析,研究了2012年至2015年期间最初失业个人的劳动力市场轨迹,重点研究了四种常见的NSE形式。结果表明,NSE并不局限于边缘群体,但62%的最初失业者属于具有大量NSE份额的集群。此外,虽然大多数人留在NSE,但在NSE之后会有一些固定的全职工作。
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引用次数: 0
Informal employment in the health sector: Examining gender disparities 卫生部门的非正规就业:审查性别差距
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q3 SOCIAL WORK Pub Date : 2024-10-03 DOI: 10.1111/ijsw.12704
Maye Ehab, Fatma Mosaad

This paper investigates the association between informal employment as a form of non-standard employment and the prevalence of in-work poverty for women in the health sector. We measured in-work poverty using a binary indicator that provides information on whether an individual has earnings above or below the low earnings threshold. The indicator takes into account household size and whether other household members are also in paid work. Using data from the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey for the years 2012 and 2018 and logit models, we found that being employed within the health sector increased the likelihood of in-work poverty among non-standard employees, both men and women. However, higher risks of in-work poverty were witnessed among women working informally in the health sector compared to other sectors. This increased risk was particularly observed when comparing non-standard employment in the health sector to non-standard employment in non-health sectors. Furthermore, marital status plays a critical role in economic wellbeing, with never-married women being more susceptible to in-work poverty compared to ever-married women.

本文调查了作为一种非标准就业形式的非正规就业与卫生部门妇女在职贫困普遍存在之间的关系。我们使用一个二元指标来衡量在职贫困,该指标提供了个人收入高于或低于低收入门槛的信息。该指标考虑到家庭规模以及其他家庭成员是否也从事有偿工作。利用2012年和2018年埃及劳动力市场小组调查的数据和logit模型,我们发现,在卫生部门工作增加了非标准员工(包括男性和女性)在职贫困的可能性。然而,与其他部门相比,在卫生部门非正式工作的妇女面临的在职贫困风险更高。在将卫生部门的非标准就业与非卫生部门的非标准就业进行比较时,尤其可以观察到这种风险增加。此外,婚姻状况在经济福利中起着至关重要的作用,与已婚女性相比,未婚女性更容易陷入在职贫困。
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引用次数: 0
Ideas and the changing relationship between states and markets in social policy: A review essay 社会政策中的观念和国家与市场之间不断变化的关系:一篇评论文章
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q3 SOCIAL WORK Pub Date : 2024-10-02 DOI: 10.1111/ijsw.12701
Daniel Béland, Ronen Mandelkern

This review essay takes stock of the recent literature about the role of ideas in social policy, with a particular focus on a key issue in social policy research: the changing interactions between states and markets over time. Specifically, our aim is to examine how the ideational literature discusses and explains prominent contemporary social policy evolutions: the rise of social investment and the financialization and technocratization of the welfare state. This is done based on the scholarship on state/market interactions and the role of ideas in social policy, and by utilizing key insights of scholars of ideational influences on state/market interactions. The article ends with a short agenda for future research on ideas and discourses as a crucial factor in the evolution of the welfare state as a key space in which states and markets interact.

这篇评论文章盘点了最近关于思想在社会政策中的作用的文献,特别关注社会政策研究中的一个关键问题:随着时间的推移,国家与市场之间不断变化的相互作用。具体来说,我们的目的是研究思想文学如何讨论和解释当代突出的社会政策演变:社会投资的兴起以及福利国家的金融化和技术化。这是基于国家/市场相互作用的学术研究和思想在社会政策中的作用,并利用学者对国家/市场相互作用的思想影响的关键见解来完成的。文章以一个简短的议程结束,为未来的思想和话语研究提供了一个简短的议程,这些思想和话语是福利国家作为国家和市场互动的关键空间演变的关键因素。
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引用次数: 0
The importance of belonging: Interactions between individual and structural risk factors for youth-disengagement 归属感的重要性:青年脱离接触的个人和结构性风险因素之间的相互作用
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q3 SOCIAL WORK Pub Date : 2024-10-02 DOI: 10.1111/ijsw.12702
Chris Rønningstad

Are disengagement risks lower when youths are surrounded by others with similar risk traits? Applying theoretical perspectives of belonging and residential context, this study examines interactional effects between individual and structural risk factors for youth-disengagement. From registry data of 590,085 Norwegians aged 16–24, the study finds less disengagement among youths in municipalities where an above-average rate of individuals shared individual risk-traits of immigrant background, young parenthood, and not completing high school. Youths with parents on social welfare had an increased risk of disengagement in municipalities with above average rates of people on social welfare. Sex-stratified analysis reveals that men and women benefit from belonging to different risk-groups. In challenging the prevailing segmented approach to individual and structural risk factors for youth-disengagement, the findings demonstrate the need for continued examination of gender, belonging and residential context as theoretical perspectives.

当青少年被具有相似风险特征的人包围时,脱离接触的风险会降低吗?本研究运用归属感和居住环境的理论视角,探讨了青少年脱离接触的个体风险因素和结构性风险因素之间的相互作用。从59085名年龄在16-24岁之间的挪威人的登记数据来看,研究发现,在移民背景、年轻父母和未完成高中学业等个人风险高于平均水平的城市,年轻人的脱离接触程度较低。在社会福利人口比例高于平均水平的城市,父母靠社会福利生活的青少年脱离社会的风险更高。性别分层分析显示,男性和女性因属于不同的风险群体而受益。在挑战目前对青年脱离社会的个人和结构性风险因素的分割方法时,研究结果表明,需要从理论角度继续研究性别、归属感和居住环境。
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引用次数: 0
Distinguishing characteristics of out-of-school adolescents in South Korea: A machine learning approach 区分韩国失学青少年的特征:一种机器学习方法
IF 1.2 3区 社会学 Q3 SOCIAL WORK Pub Date : 2024-10-02 DOI: 10.1111/ijsw.12699
Yoonsun Han, Jisu Park, Juyoung Song, Deborah Minjee Kang

Recently in South Korea the increasing prevalence of school dropouts and the declining age at which students leave school have drawn renewed attention to this issue. In line with preventive efforts and recognizing early signs of leaving school, the current study aims to identify a set of variables that are most important for understanding the experience of school dropout among South Korean adolescents. Data from two independent panel studies collected by the National Youth Policy Institute in South Korea were merged and analyzed in this study: Korean Children and Youth Panel Study (N = 1646, age = 15.90, girls = 50.73%) and Dropout Youth Panel Study (N = 609, age = 16.84, girls = 56.16%). We applied machine learning algorithms to classify the experience of school dropout using two analytic methods: random forest and decision tree. A total of 36 features from personal, family, school, peer, and community domains were used in the analyses. Specifically, adolescent behavioral characteristics (truancy, smoking, drinking, media use), family structure, teacher relationship, group bullying victimization, and collective efficacy, were consistently identified as significant features of school dropout in random forest and decision tree models. Such information, which highlights a broad spectrum of important factors within adolescents' ecological systems, may provide a scientific knowledge base for school-level prevention efforts. By identifying these features, social workers and educators may develop early warning systems against school dropouts and accurately screen adolescents with high risk.

最近在韩国,辍学率的上升和学生离校年龄的下降再次引起了人们对这个问题的关注。与预防工作和识别离校的早期迹象相一致,目前的研究旨在确定一组变量,这些变量对于理解韩国青少年的辍学经历最为重要。本研究对韩国国家青年政策研究所收集的两项独立小组研究的数据进行合并和分析:韩国儿童和青年小组研究(N = 1646,年龄= 15.90,女孩= 50.73%)和辍学青年小组研究(N = 609,年龄= 16.84,女孩= 56.16%)。我们应用机器学习算法,使用随机森林和决策树两种分析方法对辍学经历进行分类。在分析中使用了来自个人、家庭、学校、同伴和社区领域的总共36个特征。具体而言,在随机森林和决策树模型中,青少年行为特征(旷课、吸烟、饮酒、媒体使用)、家庭结构、教师关系、群体欺凌受害和集体效能一致被认为是辍学的重要特征。这些信息突出了青少年生态系统中广泛的重要因素,可以为学校一级的预防工作提供科学知识基础。通过识别这些特征,社会工作者和教育工作者可以开发针对辍学的早期预警系统,并准确筛选高风险青少年。
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引用次数: 0
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International Journal of Social Welfare
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