JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC STUDIES最新文献

Purpose

The present research study aims to explore the impact of the most recent Israeli–Palestinian conflict, which unfolded in October 2023, on global equity markets, including a wide range of both emerging and developed markets (as per the Morgan Stanley Capital Investment country classification).

Design/methodology/approach

The market model of event study methodology, with an estimation window of 200 days and 28-day event window (including event day, i.e. October 7, 2023), has been employed to investigate the event’s impact on the stock markets of different countries, with 24 emerging countries and 23 developed countries. The daily closing prices of the prominent indices of all 47 countries have been analyzed to examine the impact of the conflict on emerging markets, developed markets and overall global equity markets. Additionally, cross-sectional regression analysis has been performed to investigate the possible explanations for abnormal returns.

Findings

The findings of the study suggest the heterogeneous impact of the selected event on different markets. Notably, emerging markets and the overall global equity landscape exhibited substantial negative responses on the event day, as reflected in average abnormal returns of −0.47% and −0.397%, respectively. In contrast, developed markets displayed resilience, with no significant negative impact observed on the day of the event. A closer examination of individual countries revealed diverse reactions, with Poland, Egypt, Greece, Denmark and Portugal standing out for their positive or resilient market responses. Poland, in particular, demonstrated significantly positive cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) of 7.16% in the short-term and 8.59% in the long-term event windows (−7, +7 and −7, +20, respectively), emphasizing its robust performance amid the geopolitical turmoil. The study also found that, during various event windows, specific variables had a significant impact on the CARs.

Practical implications

The study suggests diversification and monitoring of geopolitical risks are key strategies for investors to enhance portfolio resilience during the Israeli–Palestinian conflict. This study identifies countries such as Poland, Egypt, Greece, Denmark and Portugal with positive or resilient market reactions, providing practical insights for strategic investment decisions. Key takeaways include identifying resilient markets, leveraging opportunistic strategies and navigating market dynamics during geopolitical uncertainties.

Originality/value

As per the authors’ thorough investigation and review of the literature, the present study is the earliest attempt to explore the short-term and long-term impact of the 2023 Israeli–Palestinian conflict on equity markets worldwide using the event study approach and cross-sectional regres

Purpose

The main aim of this study is to investigate the role of fathers and mothers in the intergenerational educational persistence for sons and daughters under two dimensions that characterize the clusters of countries: redistributive policy and governance.

Design/methodology/approach

Data from the Global Database of Intergenerational Mobility (GDIM), hierarchical cluster analysis on principal components and panel regression are used in this study to estimate intergenerational educational correlation and to investigate its determinants related to the parents’ and descendants’ education variables in 93 countries grouped in four clusters. The empirical analysis is differentiated by gender combinations of parents and descendants.

Findings

In the clusters of countries characterized by high inequalities and poor governance, our findings show that the role of the fathers is stronger than that of the mothers in educational transmission; fathers and mothers are more influential for the daughters rather than for the sons; parental educational privilege is the main driver of intergenerational educational persistence; there is an inverse U-curve in the association between educational inequality of the parents and educational correlation for the sons. Differently, in the countries characterized by high income, low redistributive conflict and better governance, the role of the mothers is stronger and education mobility for the daughters is higher than that for the sons.

Social implications

The authors’ results remark on the importance of social welfare policies aimed to expand a meritocratic public education system including schooling transfers for lower social class students and narrowing the gender gap in educational mobility between daughters and sons. Social welfare policies should also be oriented to spread high quality child care systems that help to foster greater women equality in the labor market, because the strength of educational persistence depends on the position of the mother in the economic hierarchy.

Originality/value

The distinctiveness of the paper can be found in the fact that this study investigates the parental role differentiating by gender and coupling hierarchical cluster analysis on principal components with panel regression models. This allows us to have a sample of 93 countries aggregated in four groups defined in two dimensions: redistributive policy and governance. Amongst the determinants of educational transmission, we consider not only education’s years of the parents but also other determinants, such as educational inequality and privilege of the parents. We also identify the effects of investment in human capital and educational inequalities for the descendants on education mobility.

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether and how inter-firm cooperation and firm age moderate the relationship between family ownership and productivity.

Design/methodology/approach

We first estimate the total factor productivity (TFP) of a large sample of Italian firms observed over the period 2010–2018 and then apply a Poisson random effects model.

Findings

TFP is, on average, higher for non-family firms (non-FFs) than for FF. Furthermore, inter-organizational cooperation and firm age mitigate the negative effect of family ownership. In detail, it is found that belonging to a network acts as a moderator in different ways according to firm age. Indeed, young FFs underperform non-FF peers, although the TFP gap decreases with age. In contrast, the benefits of a formal network are high for older FFs, suggesting that an age-related learning process is at work.

Practical implications

The study provides evidence that FFs can outperform non-FFs when they move away from Socio-Emotional Wealth-centered reference points and exploit knowledge flows arising from high levels of social capital. In the case of mature FFs, networking is a driver of TFP, allowing them to acquire external resources. Since FFs often do not have sufficient in-house knowledge and resources, they must be aware of the value of business cooperation. While preserving the familiar identity of small companies, networks grant FFs the competitive and scale advantages of being large.

Originality/value

Despite the wide but ambiguous body of research on the performance gap between FFs and non-FFs, little is known about the role of FFs’ heterogeneity. This study has proven successful in detecting age as a factor in heterogeneity, specifically to explain the network effect on the link between ownership and TFP. Based on a representative sample, the study provides a solid framework for FFs, policymakers and academic research on family-owned companies.

Purpose

Previous literature has investigated the connection amongst remittances, political stability and unemployment in remittance-receiving economies separately. Besides, they did not cover the Middle East and North African (MENA) region.

Design/methodology/approach

To this end, this research uses the pooled mean group (PMG) method.

Findings

The findings suggest that the influence of remittances on lowering unemployment accelerates in recipient economies with high levels of political stability.

Practical implications

Policymakers in MENA countries should vigorously pursue political stability, which plays a crucial role in boosting the influence of inward remittances on unemployment alleviation. This is accomplished by establishing solid institutions that contribute to ensuring fair politics, increasing citizens' trust in the government, enhancing the rule of law and protecting investors and prioritizing policies and programs that promote political stability.

Originality/value

This paper, therefore, aspires to empirically examine the impacts of inward remittances on unemployment via the moderating role of political stability in thirteen MENA-receiving countries from 1996 to 2020.

Purpose

Our result of this paper aims to indicate that the beta pricing formula could be applied in a long-term model setting as well.

Design/methodology/approach

In this paper, we show that the capital asset pricing model can be derived from a three-period general equilibrium model.

Findings

We show that our extended model yields a Pareto efficient outcome.

Practical implications

The capital asset pricing model (CAPM) model can be used for pricing long-lived assets.

Social implications

Long-term modelling and sustainability can be modelled in our setting.

Originality/value

Our results were only known for two periods. The extension to 3 periods opens up a large scope of applicational possibilities in asset pricing, behavioural analysis and long-term efficiency.

Purpose

The COVID-19 pandemic has induced tourism destinations to reconsider organisational aspects related to health safety measures, as perceptions of health safety may have become particularly important for tourists. Using data from summer 2020, the period immediately after the outbreak of the pandemic, we investigate the factors that affected tourist perceptions of health safety.

Design/methodology/approach

Data come from a survey of tourist-card holders in Trentino, an Italian mountain destination. Through regressions, we assess the conditional correlation between health safety measure evaluations following a holiday and a set of covariates related to the features of the tourist area and the tourists themselves, as well as COVID-19 incidence in their province of residence in the months before the holiday.

Findings

Tourist-related features seem not to impact on perceived health safety, whereas some destination- and accommodation-related elements do. In particular, the number of tourist beds affects it negatively, and staying at a hotel does it in a positive way. COVID-19 incidence in one’s home province does not affect perceptions of health safety measures, which suggests a possible sample selection effect and/or the need for more fine-grained data.

Originality/value

This paper is one of the few on the immediate effects of the COVID-19 pandemic using data from a large sample of actual tourists. Our findings point out the importance of the intrinsic features of some places and accommodation in influencing perceptions of safety. We discuss implications for scholars and destination managers.

Purpose

This survey explores the application of real options theory to the field of health economics. The integration of options theory offers a valuable framework to address these challenges, providing insights into healthcare investments, policy analysis and patient care pathways.

Design/methodology/approach

This research employs the real options theory, a financial concept, to delve into health economics challenges. Through a systematic approach, three distinct models rooted in this theory are crafted and analyzed. Firstly, the study examines the value of investing in emerging health technology, factoring in future advantages, associated costs and unpredictability. The second model is patient-centric, evaluating the choice between immediate treatment switch and waiting for more clarity, while also weighing the associated risks. Lastly, the research assesses pandemic-related government policies, emphasizing the importance of delaying decisions in the face of uncertainties, thereby promoting data-driven policymaking.

Findings

Three different real options models are presented in this study to illustrate their applicability and value in aiding decision-makers. (1) The first evaluates investments in new technology, analyzing future benefits, discount rates and benefit volatility to determine investment value. (2) In the second model, a patient has the option of switching treatments now or waiting for more information before optimally switching treatments. However, waiting has its risks, such as disease progression. By modeling the potential benefits and risks of both options, and factoring in the time value, this model aids doctors and patients in making informed decisions based on a quantified assessment of potential outcomes. (3) The third model concerns pandemic policy: governments can end or prolong lockdowns. While awaiting more data on the virus might lead to economic and societal strain, the model emphasizes the economic value of deferring decisions under uncertainty.

Practical implications

This research provides a quantified perspective on various decisions in healthcare, from investments in new technology to treatment choices for patients to government decisions regarding pandemics. By applying real options theory, stakeholders can make more evidence-driven decisions.

Social implications

Decisions about patient care pathways and pandemic policies have direct societal implications. For instance, choices regarding the prolongation or ending of lockdowns can lead to economic and societal strain.

Originality/value

The originality of this study lies in its application of real options theory, a concept from finance, to the realm of health economics, offering novel insights and analytical tools for decision-makers in the healthcare s

Purpose

This paper seeks to explore the sensitivity of these parameters and their impact on fiscal policy outcomes. We use the existing literature to establish possible ranges for each parameter, and we examine how changes within these ranges can alter the outcomes of fiscal policy. In this way, we aim to highlight the importance of these parameters in the formulation and evaluation of fiscal policy.

Design/methodology/approach

The role of fiscal policy, its effects and multipliers continues to be a subject of intense debate in macroeconomics. Despite adopting a New Keynesian approach within a macroeconomic model, the reactions of macroeconomic variables to fiscal shocks can vary across different contexts and theoretical frameworks. This paper aims to investigate these diverse reactions by conducting a sensitivity analysis of parameters. Specifically, the study examines how key variables respond to fiscal shocks under different parameter settings. By analyzing the behavioral dynamics of these variables, this research contributes to the ongoing discussion on fiscal policy. The findings offer valuable insights to enrich the understanding of the complex relationship between fiscal shocks and macroeconomic outcomes, thus facilitating informed policy debates.

Findings

This paper aims to investigate key elements of New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models. The focus is on the calibration of parameters and their impact on macroeconomic variables, such as output and inflation. The study also examines how different parameter settings affect the response of monetary policy to fiscal measures. In conclusion, this study has relied on theoretical exploration and a comprehensive review of existing literature. The parameters and their relationships have been analyzed within a robust theoretical framework, offering valuable insights for further research on how these factors influence model forecasts and inform policy recommendations derived from New Keynesian DSGE models. Moving forward, it is recommended that future work includes empirical analyses to test the reliability and effectiveness of parameter calibrations in real-world conditions. This will contribute to enhancing the accuracy and relevance of DSGE models for economic policy decision-making.

Originality/value

This study is motivated by the aim to provide a deeper understanding of the roles macroeconomic model parameters play concerning responses to expansionary fiscal policies and the subsequent reactions of monetary authorities. Comprehensive reviews that encompass this breadth of relationships within a single text are rare in the literature, making this work a valuable contribution to stimulating discussions on macroeconomic policies.

Purpose

There is extensive literature on the determinants of job tenure insecurity. However, very little is known about the individual drivers of labour market insecurity. Additionally, while a piece of literature shows that volunteering improves workers' income, no study considers volunteering as an activity which could help workers to feel more confident about their perception of labour market insecurity if they lost or resigned their jobs. Therefore, purpose of this paper is to study whether workers who volunteer are less likely to perceive labour market insecurity.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper employs data from the sixth European working conditions survey which provides a great deal of information on working conditions. For the empirical investigation, probit model as well as robustness analysis have been implemented.

Findings

Results show that employees who do voluntary activities have a greater likelihood of declaring perceived labour market insecurity, which is nearly 3 percentage points lower, than employees who do not volunteer. Findings suggest that governments need to improve the relationship between for-profit and non-profit sectors to encourage volunteering.

Originality/value

This is the first study which considers volunteering as an activity which could help workers to feel more confident about their perception of “labour market insecurity”. Most of the studies on “labour market insecurity” do not focus on the workers individual characteristics but mainly on the labour markets institutional characteristics and welfare regimes differences.

Purpose

The article aims to establish whether the degree of aversion to inflation and the responsiveness to deviations from potential output have changed over time.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper assesses time variation in monetary policy rules by applying a time-varying parameter generalised methods of moments (TVP-GMM) framework.

Findings

Using monthly data until December 2022 for five inflation targeting countries (the UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Sweden) and five countries with alternative monetary regimes (the US, Japan, Denmark, the Euro Area, Switzerland), we find that monetary policy has become more averse to inflation and more responsive to the output gap in both sets of countries over time. In particular, there has been a clear shift in inflation targeting countries towards a more hawkish stance on inflation since the adoption of this regime and a greater response to both inflation and the output gap in most countries after the global financial crisis, which indicates a stronger reliance on monetary rules to stabilise the economy in recent years. It also appears that inflation targeting countries pay greater attention to the exchange rate pass-through channel when setting interest rates. Finally, monetary surprises do not seem to be an important determinant of the evolution over time of the Taylor rule parameters, which suggests a high degree of monetary policy transparency in the countries under examination.

Originality/value

It provides new evidence on changes over time in monetary policy rules.