JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC STUDIES最新文献

Purpose

The relevance of transparency related to public finances is considered fundamental for good economic policy management. An environment of greater fiscal transparency allows the private sector greater predictability, improving the entrepreneur’s decision-making ability. This study empirically analyzes fiscal opacity’s effect on business confidence in an emerging economy.

Design/methodology/approach

We use monthly data from the Brazilian economy from January 2010 to March 2023. Based on Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) regressions, we analyze whether fiscal opacity, measured by the signal-to-noise ratio, affects business confidence. Moreover, to evaluate the duration of a shock transmitted by the fiscal opacity on business confidence, we consider an impulse-response function generated by a Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR).

Findings

We found that fiscal opacity resulting from the lack of information to anticipate the budgetary result of the public sector deteriorates business confidence.

Practical implications

We present robust empirical evidence that allows us to assume that using a strategy to reduce fiscal opacity through mechanisms that provide reliable economic data and fiscal forecasts is essential for fiscal policy to affect business confidence positively. Reducing fiscal opacity provides greater clarity regarding the budget outcome, reduces economic uncertainty and improves the fiscal policy expectation channel.

Originality/value

This paper is the first to analyze how the lack of information for market agents to anticipate the government’s budget execution accurately (fiscal opacity) affects business confidence.

Purpose

This article aims to study the nonlinear effect of financial inclusion on tax revenue of 21 low financial development countries (LFDCs) and 22 high financial development countries (HFDCs) from 2004 to 2020.

Design/methodology/approach

The study calculates the world average financial development index (FD̅) for all countries using data from the IMF. The average FD of HFDCs is higher than (FD̅). On the other hand, the average FD of LFDCs is lower than (FD̅). Data of 21 LFDCs and 22 HFDCs cover the period 2004–2020. With the small sample problem, we applied the Bayesian method to examine the nonlinear effect of financial inclusion on the tax revenue of the two groups of countries.

Findings

Using the Bayesian method, the results show that financial inclusion negatively impacts tax revenue with an absolute probability of 100% in LFDCs and a lower probability of 92.45% in HFDCs. Additionally, the financial inclusion threshold at LFDCs is 18.90. Below this threshold, financial inclusion promotes tax revenue with a 100% probability. On the contrary, when financial inclusion exceeds the threshold, it will have a negative effect on tax revenue. Similarly, the financial inclusion threshold at HFDCs is 20.14, with a probability of 92.45%.

Originality/value

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first paper to examine the nonlinear impact of financial inclusion on tax revenue in high and low financial development countries.

Purpose

Without precedent, green bonds confront, for the first time since their emergence, a twofold crisis context, namely the Covid-19-Russian–Ukrainian crisis period. In this context, this paper aims to investigate the connectedness between the two pioneering bond market classes that are conventional and treasury, with the green bonds market.

Design/methodology/approach

In their forecasting target, authors use a Support Vector Regression model on daily S&P 500 Green, Conventional and Treasury Bond Indexes for a year from 2012 to 2022.

Findings

Authors argue that conventional bonds could better explain and predict green bonds than treasury bonds for the three studied sub-periods (pre-crisis period, Covid-19 crisis and Covid-19-Russian–Ukrainian crisis period). Furthermore, conventional and treasury bonds lose their forecasting power in crisis framework due to enhancements in market connectedness relationships. This effect makes spillovers in bond markets more sensitive to crisis and less predictable. Furthermore, this research paper indicates that even if the indicators of the COVID-19 crisis have stagnated and the markets have adapted to this rather harsh economic framework, the forecast errors persist higher than in the pre-crisis phase due to the Russian–Ukrainian crisis effect not yet addressed by the literature.

Originality/value

This study has several implications for the field of green bond forecasting. It not only illuminates the market participants to the best market forecasters, but it also contributes to the literature by proposing an unadvanced investigation of green bonds forecasting in Crisis periods that could help market participants and market policymakers to anticipate market evolutions and adapt their strategies to period specificities.

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to analyze the price discovery and market efficiency of energy futures traded in India. The study also examines the volatility spillover effect between the cash and futures markets of energy commodities.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses crude oil and natural gas spot and futures series traded at Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), India. To evaluate the objectives, the paper employs the cointegration test, causality check, dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) method and Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner (BEKK) GARCH Model.

Findings

The study supports the long-run association between the selected markets. Unlike natural gas, in the case of crude oil bidirectional, flow of information is observed. The study rejects the unbiasedness and efficient market hypothesis of the energy futures market in India. Further, the study confirms that the selected energy commodities indicate bidirectional shock transmission between their respective cash and futures markets.

Practical implications

The study will assist the commodity market participants in designing their trading strategy. The volatility signal will be used by investors and portfolio managers for risk management and portfolio adjustment. Regulators will be able to anticipate future spillover and can design policies to strengthen the market.

Originality/value

The paper evaluates the three aspects of the energy futures market, namely price discovery, market efficiency and volatility slipover. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, studies on efficacy and shock transmission in the context of the energy futures market in India are rare. Further, the study also contributes by investigating the price discovery process of the energy futures market.

Purpose

This study examines the impact of schooling on risk perceptions and the moderation role of a non-cognitive skill, locus of control.

Design/methodology/approach

Using information from the Thailand Vietnam Socio Economic Panel data set, the study employs Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) to address the potential endogeneity problem of the schooling variable.

Findings

The findings indicate that a higher level of willingness to take risks is correlated with additional schooling years. In other words, those with higher levels of education are more prone to take more risks. The result demonstrates that the association between education and risk attitudes is moderated by locus of control.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the growing literature on education in emerging countries by addressing the endogeneity problem of schooling variables using the GMM method. Moreover, this study examines the mediating role of personal non-cognitive skills, namely locus of control, in the relationship between education and risk attitudes.

Purpose

Development has been a long-age phenomenon from the millennium to sustainability. This is because the new millennium ushered in the episode of development in the global economy from the role of inputs to the role of productivity and knowledge. Thus, understanding the forefront of initiatives to develop better policies for better lives and to find fact-based answers to social, economic, and environmental problems becomes unavoidable.

Design/methodology/approach

The study therefore assesses the impact of labor productivity and investment decisions on human development. A modified production theory was adopted for OECD economies. To address the problem of endogeneity and cross-sectional dependence, a two-step system generalized method of moments, Driscoll–Kraay estimator, and Panel Corrected Standard Error were used.

Findings

The findings reveal that the impact of labor productivity on human development differs significantly from the impact of investment decisions. The result shows that investment decisions will have a positive impact on human development when there is an insignificant capital fixed formation to boost the productivity of OECD economies. Further, the result shows that the organization governments through the provision of social security and essential services have a positive impact on the OECD human development.

Originality/value

This study has contributed significantly to assessing the drivers of human development within the purview of labor productivity, investment decisions and government expenditure in OECD countries.

Purpose

This study aims to examine the impact of financial inclusion and bank stability on agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

Design/methodology/approach

The study used 38 countries in the SSA with data spanning between 2004 and 2021. The data were analyzed using the two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) and the panel-corrected standard error (PCSE) model.

Findings

The study found a positive effect of financial inclusion and bank stability on agricultural productivity. The study also discovered that while the access component of financial inclusion has a negative influence on agricultural productivity, the usage dimension has a positive impact.

Research limitations/implications

The study suggests to policymakers that an inclusive and stable financial system improves agricultural productivity. The findings recommend that policymakers should empower farmers to leverage financial inclusion.

Originality/value

This study provides insightful discussion on the impact of financial inclusion and its various dimensions and bank stability on agricultural productivity in SSA.

Purpose

This paper examines the short-term market impact of the beginning of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine (February 24, 2022) on the world’s largest defense firms.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors examine the world’s 100 largest listed defense firms at and around the beginning of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine using an event-study methodology.

Findings

We observe a positive and statistically significant stock price reaction at and around the beginning of the military conflict. These results are consistent with the asset-pricing perspective/expected cash flow hypothesis. Consistent with the captured regulator theory, we find superior market returns for the two portfolios with a greater weight of defense sales. Superior market returns are also found for defense firms with higher R&D and capital expenditure intensity. Finally, these reactions are reinforced or mitigated by other firm-specific characteristics such as size, profitability and institutional ownership.

Originality/value

The effect of the war on stock markets has been relatively little examined in the financial theory. This study intends to fill this gap in the literature.

Purpose

The global non-attainment of the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 5 indicates the issue of rising gender inequality. Educated women shying away from the labor force is worsening it. The labor market dynamics might shape the female labor force participation (FLFP). The present study recommends a policy framework by analyzing this dynamism across 125 countries over 1990–2020.

Design/methodology/approach

The Two-step System Generalized Method of Moments is used to address endogeneity bias. Dynamism in policy environment is captured by relaxing the Ceteris Paribus condition in the empirical model.

Findings

Results show that the moderation of labor market factors has increased with the attainment of Secondary and Tertiary Education. Results also highlight that these factors promote FLFP through prospective opportunities but also hinder female participation through employer’s discrimination despite educational attainment.

Originality/value

Studies have examined the role of education on FLFP. However, prior research has not investigated the role of labor market factors in influencing the impact of education on FLFP. The consideration of these factors will help in addressing the global policy lacuna by recommending a policy framework for enhancing FLFP through internalization of the externalities exerted by the labor market factors, and thereby, help the countries attaining the SDG 5 objectives.