Population Research and Policy Review最新文献

Demographic projections are important for Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV) assessments around climate change. When linked with physical models that delineate alternative outcomes of climate hazards, they lead to enhanced understanding of the location and size of the most vulnerable populations, thereby improving hot-spot analysis for more targeted intervention planning. These demographic projections should be consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) so their combination with climate projections offers a diverse set of perspectives for climate change risk assessments. Most SSP based projections have been developed at a national level, which mask local-scale heterogeneities. Mexico is a heterogeneous country in terms of climate hazards, demographic characteristics, aging population, and socioeconomic inequalities across regions and states. Thus, we translate the extended SSP scenarios to quantitative demographic assumptions based on regional distinct background conditions. We then use a multi-regional cohort component model to generate SSP-based demographic projections by gender and age for each Mexican state from 2020 to 2100. We also discuss several applications to highlight the added value of using spatially refined demographic projections for IAV analysis and targeted policymaking aimed at improving the resilience of Mexico’s population in relation to climate change. Our projections indicate that, under certain SSPs, domestic migration is a major driver of population change in some states. Our subnational SSP-based demographic projections are the first set of this type of projections for Mexico informed by regional differences in demographic processes, thereby enhancing the evaluation of medium-term and long-term effects of climate change in localized scales.

The number of return migrants from the U.S. to Mexico has swelled in recent years, yet we know little about the academic performance of the over 500,000 U.S.-born children who have accompanied them. This study compares Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) test scores of U.S.-born children of return migrants in Mexico to two groups: Mexican-born students in Mexico and students in the U.S. born to Spanish-speaking immigrant parents. While previous work often highlights the struggles these children face in adapting to schools in Mexico, at age 15 they attain slightly higher PISA scores than their Mexican-born counterparts. However, these adolescents’ scores are much lower than similar youths’ in the U.S. Results for both comparisons change little in models controlling for variables related to immigrant selection and are consistent across possible individual moderators, including age at migration. This paper highlights the importance of a cross-border perspective and attention to institutional context in studies of immigrant education.

This paper investigates employment changes during the COVID-19 pandemic for women and men in a country characterized by notoriously low female employment: Italy. The paper explores to what extent previously existing inequalities in employment were further exacerbated during the pandemic. Using data from the Italian Labor Force Surveys from 2018 to 2020, we find evidence of a limited decline in employment, but a steep increase in the number of individuals working zero hours during the lockdown periods. This result holds for both men and women. The pandemic highlighted how gender inequalities in employment intersect with other socioeconomic disadvantages: single mothers and lower-educated women were more affected than their male counterparts, while single men without children and foreign men were hit stronger than women with the same characteristics in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic. The pandemic thus came with differentiated consequences, generally affecting those already in less advantaged situations harder. At the same time, the results support the idea that women’s employment was crucial to counteract job loss in the family, and some became the only breadwinner for their families. This also exposed them to risks by working during the pandemic. Overall, the pandemic greatly accentuated preexisting social inequalities in the Italian labor market, yet with an apparently transitory effect at least regarding employment participation.

This study explores linkages between various living arrangements with and without grandparents and children’s socioemotional functioning in kindergarten. Changing family patterns and increases in longevity have resulted in increasing numbers of American children coresiding with grandparents. Despite these trends, little scholarly attention has been given to associations between grandparental coresidence and children’s socioemotional health. Data comes from the second wave of the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, 2010–2011 kindergarten cohort. Using a sample of 11,486 eligible children, associations between various living arrangements, with and without grandparents, and four measures of socioemotional health (interpersonal skills, self-control, and internalizing and externalizing problem behaviors) are explored. Multiple linear regression models are weighted to produce nationally representative estimates. Findings indicate that children in one-parent multigenerational households (MGHs) and grandfamilies (with grandparent(s) as the primary caregiver and no parents) have less favorable teacher-reported socioemotional health outcomes compared to those in two-parent households without grandparents. However, between-group comparisons of children in similar living arrangements in terms of the number of parents (two, one, none), with and without grandparents, suggest the addition of a grandparent to a household is a net neutral for children’s social and emotional well-being. Having more favorable economic and primary caregiver resources may help mitigate adverse socioemotional outcomes for children in non-nuclear families, including those with grandparents. Efforts to strengthen the resource portfolios of such families should be prioritized in order to reduce observed socioemotional disadvantages for coresident children.

Most health disparities and population health scholarship homogenizes Black women, masking within-group distinctions in their lived experience and health. Moreover, the stress literature tends to focus on the health consequences of one stressor (e.g., financial strain) or a single domain from which stressors emanate (e.g., family relationships). Filling these literature gaps, this study integrates stress theory and the intersectionality framework to investigate ethnicity and nativity status heterogeneity in cardiovascular disease risk factors (i.e., hypertension and obesity) and stress profiles of US Black women while also testing for interrelationships among social status, stress exposure, and health. Drawing from the National Survey of American Life (N = 2872), the analysis proceeded with binary logistic regression models to ascertain the associations among ethnic-nativity status, stress, and cardiovascular disease risk. Study results revealed higher rates of obesity for US-born Afro-Caribbean women, followed by US-born African American and foreign-born Afro-Caribbean women. US-born African American women, however, were at greatest risk for hypertension. Differential exposure to stressors inclusive of everyday discrimination, stressful life events, financial strain, and negative interactions with family members did not explain ethnic-nativity differences in hypertension and obesity. Nonetheless, the association between specific stressors and health differed by ethnic-nativity status. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

This study examines excess mortality patterns in 32 European countries during the first three years of the pandemic, offering insights into the pandemic’s toll on each country. Using data from national statistical offices, we calculated monthly excess mortality for 2020–2022. Time series decomposition was employed for trend analysis, followed by clustering countries based on their mortality trends. Then we compared total excess mortality among different clusters. We found that neighboring countries with similar characteristics experienced comparable levels of excess mortality, regardless of the differences in their pandemic trajectories identified by cluster analysis. Other factors, such as healthcare infrastructure and pre-existing health risks, appear to have had a more significant impact on total excess mortality, with various pre-existing regional factors playing significant roles in shaping the pandemic’s final toll. While the timing of peak excess mortality may have been a factor, it was not the primary driver of the overall toll. This study highlights the critical need for comprehensive public health strategies that focus on reinforcing healthcare infrastructure and mitigating pre-existing health risks, essential for effective pandemic preparedness and response. These findings suggest the need for reevaluating current approaches and exploring alternative strategies for managing future health emergencies.

This study employs insights from food justice scholarship to develop a theoretical framework aimed at comprehending the intersections of food insecurity and mental health disparities within LGBTQ + populations. The framework is empirically tested and refined, drawing upon data from a nationally representative sample of 63,190 respondents from the 2022 Household Pulse Survey. This sample includes 40% cisgender men, 58% cisgender women, and 2% transgender and gender non-conforming (TGNC) individuals, with 10% identifying as non-heterosexual and 90% as heterosexual. Two distinct pathways are proposed and examined through data analysis. The first pathway reveals that LGBTQ + populations exhibit a higher prevalence of mental health challenges compared to their non-LGBTQ + counterparts. The findings also unveil nuanced mental health dynamics within LGBTQ + communities, with TGNC individuals and bisexual people demonstrating a higher susceptibility to mental health challenges. The second pathway underscores that food injustice amplifies pre-existing mental health disparities within LGBTQ + communities, particularly evident in TGNC individuals who exhibit the most significant rise in depression and anxiety disorders when facing food insecurity. Findings from this study underscore the urgent need for further research and proactive responses to comprehensively address the food inequities experienced by LGBTQ + communities. It is imperative to address the underlying discrimination and stigma that perpetuate these disparities through targeted efforts, including policy initiatives, community action initiatives, and educational programs.

Coresidence with parents is now the most common living arrangement among young adults (ages 18–29) in the United States. For many, coresidence comes after first leaving home and living in an independent household. Recent shifts in these residential transitions has spurred renewed research in this area, with a focus on contemporaneous young adult characteristics, individual well-being, and the family context. Largely overlooked in this research is a consideration of the geographic context where young adults make home-leaving and home-returning decisions. Drawing on residential mobility theory and research that emphasizes features of local housing and labor markets, the present study explores if county-level characteristics are associated with the likelihood of either leaving or returning to the parental home. Using data from the 1997 cohort of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, results indicate that youth are less likely to leave home, and more likely to return to it, if they live in areas with higher rental costs. Housing market characteristics also appear to be more important for home-leaving and home-returning for youth who stay in the same county, as opposed to launching to different counties. Findings thus demonstrate that contextual features should be emphasized alongside individual and family features as pathways to independent living.

This paper focuses on the consequences of the implementation of a bilateral agreement between Israel and Thailand for migrant workers in the agricultural sector. Its purpose is to shed light on the key mechanisms of the transition from the marketization to demarketization of recruiting migrant workers, and to show how this transition affects the forms of labor recruitment and its consequences for the labor migrants. The study is based on three face-to-face surveys conducted among 180 agricultural workers from Thailand. Fifty-five were surveyed in 2011 before the implementation of the bilateral agreement, and 125 were interviewed after the agreement was implemented. Relying on a “before” and “after design, we first highlight the ways in which the private recruitment industry operated in Israel in the context of a state-sponsored temporary labor migration program, identifying the actors involved in the process and explaining how they profited from the labor recruitment. Second, we shed light on the importance of bilateral agreements in eliminating illicit practices for recruiting foreign workers in Israel and its practical consequences for the Thai migrants arriving under the new arrangement. We discuss our findings in light of the theories presented in the paper.

Abstract

This study introduces a comprehensive econometric framework based on gravity equations and designed to forecast migrant flows between countries. The model’s theoretical underpinnings are validated through empirical data, and we show that the model has better out-of-sample predictive ability than alternative global models. We explore the quantitative effects of various socioeconomic, demographic, and geographic factors on migration and illustrate its use to obtain scenario-driven projections of bilateral migration, assessing the potential contributions of migration to population and GDP dynamics in Germany and Portugal for the period 2021–2025. Our projection results highlight the critical role of immigration in sustaining population levels and economic growth, particularly in the context of ageing populations and decreasing fertility rates across Europe.