Population Research and Policy Review最新文献

Objectives

To quantify the role of state-level lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer (LGBTQ+)-related policies on experiences of discrimination in a population-representative sample of partnered individuals.

Methods

An adjusted multilevel random-intercept logistic regression model with individuals (level-1) nested within states (level-2) and a cross-level interaction term between gender/sexual identity and policy score was used to estimate the predicted probability of any experiences of discrimination for cisgender heterosexual, transgender and non-binary, and cisgender sexual minority respondents.

Results

Experiences of discrimination in the past month were more common amongst transgender and non-binary (90.2%) respondents compared to their cisgender sexual minority (74.0%) or cisgender heterosexual (73.2%) counterparts. When compared to cisgender heterosexual respondents, the interaction term was found to be statistically significant for only transgender and non-binary (OR = 0.93, 95% CI [0.88, 0.98]) but not cisgender sexual minority respondents (OR = 0.99, 95% CI [0.97, 1.01]). Indicating that as state policy environments became more protective the odds of experiencing discrimination decreased at a more substantial rate for transgender and non-binary respondents when compared to cisgender sexual minority or cisgender heterosexual respondents.

Conclusions

Transgender and non-binary individuals experience more discrimination compared to their cisgender sexual minority or cisgender heterosexual counterparts. State-level LGBTQ + policy protections amplified the relationship between gender identity and experiences of discrimination.

During the first half of the 20th century, infant mortality in the general population fell by more than 50% in higher income countries. Despite accounting for a disproportionately high share of deaths in these countries during this period, few quantitative studies have examined the experiences of infants who were born or raised in an institutional context. In this paper, we quantify mortality rates in Mother and Baby Homes in Ireland, institutions that were aimed primarily at unmarried mothers and their infants. Using information on over 40,000 infants born in the 6 largest of these insitutions in Ireland, we assess how this risk of mortality changed over the course of the 20th century relative to the general population, and assess variation in death rates by observed characteristics. The mortality penalty for these institutions was greatly elevated, reaching four times the national mortality rate in the 1930s and 1940s. By comparing the outcomes of infants from the Mother and Baby Homes with the rest of the population using large-scale quantitative data, this study documents the scale of the disadvantage faced by marginalised communities born outside public hospital systems, and highlights the potential role of nutrition-related causes in these disparities.

Using the Household Pulse Survey and American Community Survey, this study examines employment insecurity experienced across different racial/ethnic groups of the U.S. labor force under the pandemic disruptions. It highlights significant employment security disparities based on race, ethnicity, and income during the pandemic. However, there are no significant gender and racial disparities within the lowest income group when controlling for other conditions. In contrast, gender and racial disparities in EI are much more pronounced among mid-to-high income groups. Non-White individuals were disproportionately affected by job loss due to health and COVID-related employment issues, unlike Whites who faced unemployment more due to other factors. This pattern was more evident among lower-income groups. The trends shifted in later stages, with high-income Black and Hispanic workers becoming more likely to be unemployed due to non-health and non-employment reasons. Middle-income workers across all races were least likely to stop working for reasons other than COVID-related health or employment issues. In addition, regardless race or ethnicity, women more likely to be unemployed due to health reasons and less so due to employment issues compared to men, and the gender disparities increased with higher household incomes. We propose that the apparent immediate effects of the pandemic are actually indicative of deeper, systemic issues within the U.S. labor market, specifically the occupational segregation tied to race/ethnicity, gender, and class. Recovery efforts must take a holistic approach and integrate economic development policies, workforce development strategies, and social policies targeting poverty alleviation, health disparities, and people of color.

Understanding patterns of children’s living arrangements (physical custody) in separated families and the factors related to joint physical custody are crucial as custody patterns have significant implications for the well-being of children and parents. In this study we use the 2021 European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions Survey (EU-SILC) to provide new evidence of children’s post-separation living arrangements in Europe. Our sample (n = 7,461) is restricted to children of separated or divorced parents residing in their mother’s household and having another parent residing outside of the household. We analyze both the individual-level socioeconomic, family-and child-related characteristics, and country-level variables to explain variation in children’s joint physical custody arrangements. We find that joint physical custody is higher among boys and children in the age groups 6–10 and 11–15. We also find that children with more socioeconomically advantaged mothers (higher education, employed, higher income, homeowners) are more likely to have joint physical custody. Importantly, controlling for individual-level characteristics, both the legal and the gender equality context shape the prevalence of joint physical custody, suggesting that country-level policies and norms may be important.

Despite a developing literature on the consequences of parental incarceration, its effects on childhood obesity are not evident. Our research project fills this knowledge gap by describing the relationship between parental incarceration and childhood obesity among children aged 3–15 and determining if and how this association differs across race. We use four consecutive waves of data on 3,302 children from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study. Our analysis finds little evidence that parental incarceration influences the probability of obesity among all children as a group. Moreover, our findings reveal critical racial disparities in the relationship between parental incarceration and childhood obesity. In particular, parental lifetime incarceration is not associated with risks of obesity for White or Hispanic children but is associated with a significantly decreased chance of obesity for Black children. This research effort can initiate an interdisciplinary conversation on the important intersection of family and corrections in order to alleviate the intergenerational erosion of physical health and well-being.

Research on the legacies of historical redlining has lacked nationally representative and multilevel data. We advance this literature by analyzing new data that links historical redlining maps to the residential addresses of participants in the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health), a diverse and national cohort of adolescents who transitioned to adulthood between the mid-1990s and late 2010s (N = 10,897). We report three key findings. First, while most participants did not live within the boundaries of historical redlining maps, Black (22%) and Hispanic (28%) participants were several times more likely than their White peers (8%) to live in either a formerly yellow- or red-lined urban area in adolescence. Second, adolescents who resided in yellow- or red-lined areas also tended to live in the most disadvantaged households and neighborhoods and attained the lowest levels of socioeconomic status in adulthood. Third, Black and White adolescents who lived in rural areas also experienced similar or worse adult outcomes than their peers who lived in redlined urban areas. We also find anomalous but inconclusive patterns for the small group of Black and Hispanic participants who lived in historically affluent “green-lined” areas in adolescence, including poor adult health and high risk of contact with the criminal justice system. Given these findings, we outline avenues for future research that could include historical redlining maps, but also expand beyond urban redlining to consider nonmetropolitan areas and other contemporary indicators of structural racism.

Child marriage has lasting negative health, human capital, and welfare consequences. Conflict settings are characterized by a number of complex changes that can potentially increase the risk of child marriage, but there has been limited population-based research directly estimating the relationship between conflict and child marriage. Using data from 19 conflict-affected countries, this paper estimates the relationship between conflict and child marriage. It identifies the relationship based on variation over space and time in conflict intensity. The findings are mixed; in some countries conflict is associated with an increase in child marriage, in others it is associated with a decrease in child marriage, and in some cases there is not a statistically significant relationship. These findings underscore how efforts to reduce child marriage need to consider conflict as a potential risk factor, but also one that is likely to interact with local economic, social, and demographic environments.

We examine the utility of data on active and vacant residential addresses to inform local and timely monitoring and assessments of how areas impacted by wildfires and extreme weather events more broadly lose (or not) and subsequently recover (or not) their populations. Provided by the U.S. Postal Service to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and other users, these data are an underutilized and potentially valuable tool to study population change in disaster-affected areas for at least three reasons. First, as they are aggregated to the ZIP + 4 level, they permit highly local portraits of residential and, indirectly, of population change. Second, they are tabulated on a quarterly basis starting in 2010 through the most recent quarter, thereby allowing for timely assessments than other data sources. Third, one mechanism of population change—namely, underlying changes in residential occupancies and vacancies—is explicit in the data. Our findings show that these data are sufficient for detecting signals of residential and, indirectly, of population change during and after particularly damaging wildfires; however, there is also noticeable variation across cases that requires further investigations into, for example, the guidance the U.S. Postal Services provides its postal offices and carriers to classify addresses as vacant.

Japan’s population aging is the most advanced in the world today. No nationwide study has been conducted using small area population projection data on Japan’s aging population. This is because such projection data was unavailable for Japan before the 2016 launch of the website ‘The Web System of Small Area Population Projections for the Whole Japan’ (SAPP for Japan). SAPP for Japan opened the small-area and long-term projected population of Japan for the first time on the World Wide Web. The purpose of this study is to quantitatively analyze the future aging process using data from the SAPP for Japan and, based on this analysis, to attempt to present the standard aging process that developed countries will experience after the demographic transition, taking advantage of the fact that Japan has the most aged population in the world. Subsequently, a non-hierarchical cluster analysis was performed using two statistics on aging: the elderly population proportion and the elderly population change index, and the small areas were classified into seven clusters. Furthermore, this study examined the demographic and geographical features of the clusters, introduced a new concept of the stage in the population aging process, and analyzed the relationship between the features and the stages. To conclude, the following findings were obtained regarding the future process of Japan’s population aging. In each area of Japan, first, the total population begins to decline, second, the elderly population begins to decrease, and finally, its proportion begins to decrease. These stage shifts generally proceed earlier in areas with a higher elderly population proportion and are attributed to the reduced size of younger cohorts owing to long-term fertility decline. This process would be the norm in many developed countries after the demographic transition.

In this paper we focus on modelling and forecasting gross interregional migration in a way that can be embedded within multiregional population projections. We revisit, and apply, a family of spatial interaction models first formulated during the 1970s. The classic gravity model—in which migration is positively related to the populations of sending and receiving areas, but inversely related to various types of spatial friction associated with migrating between them—is a special case that is nested within this family of models. We investigate which member of the family of models gives the best fit when modelling five-year migration flows between the 66 Territorial Authorities (TAs) of Aotearoa New Zealand, using 2013 and 2018 census data. We find that predicting migration between two TAs can be improved by taking into account, firstly, an index of the ‘draw’ from all other TAs when modelling out-migration of any TA and, secondly, an index of the ‘competitiveness’ of a TA vis-à-vis all other TAs when modelling in-migration of any TA. We highlight the properties of the statistically-preferred model by simulating the impact on internal migration of an exogenous increase in Auckland’s population. In this model, such a population change affects not only migration flows from and to Auckland, but also migration between other TAs. The usefulness of this approach for population projections is assessed by forecasting the 2013–18 migration matrix by means of 2013 census data only. In this specific case, the model outperforms the classic gravity model in terms of forecasting gross migration, but not net migration.