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Timing Is Everything: How Economists Can Better Address the Urgency of Stronger Climate Policy 时机就是一切:经济学家如何更好地应对更强有力的气候政策的紧迫性
IF 5.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/reep/rez014
L. Goulder
Building on recent consensus findings from climate scientists, this article argues that stronger policy action to address global climate change is urgent. The article indicates how economists can better address this urgency and thereby contribute more effectively to climate policy discussions. Greater effectiveness requires that economists focus their policy assessments more sharply on the timing of policy implementation and the environmental and economic costs of delayed implementation. The article also shows that focusing more on the prospects for near-term implementation can alter the cost rankings of U.S. climate policy alternatives, increasing the attractiveness of some climate policy approaches that economists might otherwise tend to dismiss.
基于气候科学家最近的共识发现,本文认为,迫切需要采取更有力的政策行动来应对全球气候变化。这篇文章指出了经济学家如何更好地解决这一紧迫性,从而更有效地为气候政策讨论做出贡献。更大的有效性要求经济学家将政策评估的重点放在政策实施的时间以及延迟实施的环境和经济成本上。文章还表明,更多地关注近期实施的前景可能会改变美国气候政策替代方案的成本排名,增加一些经济学家可能会忽视的气候政策方法的吸引力。
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引用次数: 42
Estimating the Economic Impacts of Climate Change Using Weather Observations 利用天气观测估计气候变化的经济影响
IF 5.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/reep/rez024
Charles D. Kolstad, Frances C. Moore
This article reviews methods that use historical data on weather, climate, economic activity, and other variables to statistically measure the effect of climate on economic outcomes. This has been an active area of research for several decades, with many recent developments and discussions in the literature concerning the best way to estimate climate damages. The article first presents a conceptual framework for estimating the costs of climate change impacts. It then examines several approaches proposed in the literature that use historical weather data to econometrically estimate climate change impacts. These include cross section, linear and nonlinear panel methods, long differences, and partitioning variation. For each approach we describe the type of impacts (short-run versus long-run) estimated, the type of weather or climate variation used (e.g., cross-sectional, time-series, or a combination of the two using panel data), and the advantages and disadvantages of the approach. We conclude with a summary of our findings and priorities for future research.
本文回顾了使用天气、气候、经济活动和其他变量的历史数据来统计测量气候对经济结果的影响的方法。几十年来,这一直是一个活跃的研究领域,最近在文献中有许多关于估计气候损害的最佳方法的发展和讨论。本文首先提出了估算气候变化影响成本的概念框架。然后研究了文献中提出的几种方法,这些方法使用历史天气数据来计量估计气候变化的影响。这些方法包括横截面、线性和非线性面板方法、长差和分区变化。对于每种方法,我们描述了估计的影响类型(短期与长期),所使用的天气或气候变化类型(例如,横断面,时间序列,或两者的组合使用面板数据),以及该方法的优点和缺点。最后,我们总结了我们的发现和未来研究的重点。
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引用次数: 99
Designing and Evaluating a U.S. Carbon Tax Adjustment Mechanism to Reduce Emissions Uncertainty 设计与评估美国碳税调整机制以降低排放不确定性
IF 5.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/reep/rez018
Marc A. C. Hafstead, Roberton C. Williams
There is increasing political interest in the United States in an economy-wide carbon tax. However, many environmental groups see the emissions uncertainty under a carbon tax as a significant shortcoming, leaving them reluctant to support carbon taxes without some assurance about emissions outcomes. This has created an interest in options for reducing a carbon tax’s inherent emissions uncertainty. One leading approach is a tax adjustment mechanism (TAM), which automatically adjusts the carbon tax rate based on the level of actual emissions relative to a legislated target. This article examines the role for TAMs in carbon tax design and the trade-offs of alternative designs. Using two recent TAM proposals (in former U.S. Representative Carlos Curbelo’s [R-FL] MARKET CHOICE Act and for the Climate Leadership Council’s Carbon Dividends Plan), we show that TAMs can substantially reduce emissions uncertainty. We then show how different design choices affect expected costs and emissions outcomes. We show that most design features have clear trade-offs, improving some outcomes while worsening others. Thus the optimal design will depend on the specific goals of the TAM.
在美国,对在整个经济范围内征收碳税的政治兴趣日益浓厚。然而,许多环保组织认为,碳税带来的排放不确定性是一个重大缺陷,这使得他们不愿在排放结果没有一定保证的情况下支持碳税。这引起了人们对减少碳税固有的排放不确定性的选择的兴趣。一种主要的方法是税收调整机制(TAM),它根据相对于立法目标的实际排放水平自动调整碳税率。本文考察了tam在碳税设计中的作用以及替代设计的权衡。利用TAM最近提出的两项提案(前美国众议员卡洛斯·库贝罗的《市场选择法案》和气候领导委员会的《碳红利计划》),我们表明TAM可以大大减少排放的不确定性。然后,我们展示了不同的设计选择如何影响预期成本和排放结果。我们表明,大多数设计功能都有明确的权衡,在改善某些结果的同时恶化其他结果。因此,最优设计将取决于TAM的具体目标。
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引用次数: 13
Carbon Tax Review and Updating: Institutionalizing an Act-Learn-Act Approach to U.S. Climate Policy 碳税审查和更新:将美国气候政策的行为-学习-行为方法制度化
IF 5.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/reep/rez019
Joseph E. Aldy
The design of climate change policy must address a number of key uncertainties, including the impacts of climate change, the economics of a carbon tax, and the global effort to combat climate change. A periodic review of each of these issues would provide new information and analysis that could be used to reduce uncertainty and inform the updating of a carbon tax over time. This article proposes and describes a straightforward and predictable approach for reviewing and updating a U.S. carbon tax. Under this “structured discretion” approach, the U.S. president would recommend an update to the carbon tax every 5 years, which would be based on government agency reviews of the environmental, economic, and multilateral conditions related to climate change. Following a process that is modeled after the expedited consideration of trade agreements, the U.S. Congress would agree to vote on the recommended carbon tax update. This process could also be coordinated with the timing of the emission mitigation pledging rounds under the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement. I suggest that the institutionalization of such an act-learn-act approach to carbon tax design could improve the political viability of a carbon tax and promote its adaptability to changing environmental, economic, and multilateral conditions, which would likely increase net social welfare over time.
气候变化政策的设计必须解决一些关键的不确定性,包括气候变化的影响、碳税的经济性以及全球应对气候变化的努力。对每一个问题的定期审查将提供新的信息和分析,可用于减少不确定性,并为碳税的更新提供信息。本文提出并描述了一种简单、可预测的方法来审查和更新美国碳税。根据这种“结构化自由裁量权”方法,美国总统将建议每5年更新一次碳税,这将基于政府机构对与气候变化相关的环境、经济和多边条件的审查。按照以加快审议贸易协议为模式的程序,美国国会将同意对建议的碳税更新进行投票。这一过程也可以与2015年《巴黎气候协定》下减排承诺回合的时间安排相协调。我建议,将这种“行动-学习-行动”的碳税设计方法制度化,可以提高碳税的政治可行性,并提高其对不断变化的环境、经济和多边条件的适应性,随着时间的推移,这可能会增加净社会福利。
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引用次数: 13
The Political Economy of Hybrid Approaches to a U.S. Carbon Tax: A Perspective from the Policy World 美国碳税混合征收方式的政治经济学:政策世界视角
IF 5.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/reep/rez022
S. Brooks, N. Keohane
While market-based climate policy in the United States has been dominated by emissions trading, including policies at the state level and in proposed major federal legislation, a number of recent U.S. climate proposals focus on a carbon tax (or fee). Just as emissions trading programs have included some form of “price containment” measures, carbon tax policies may include “emissions assurance” provisions or, as we refer to them here, “environmental integrity mechanisms” (EIMs), which are designed to provide greater certainty about the resulting quantity of emissions. We propose three political economy reasons—as well as one practical reason relating to international climate agreements—that EIMs are likely to be an important component of any politically successful carbon tax (or fee) legislation in the U.S. Congress.
尽管美国基于市场的气候政策一直以排放交易为主,包括州一级的政策和拟议的主要联邦立法,但美国最近的一些气候提案侧重于碳税(或费用)。正如排放交易计划包括某种形式的“价格遏制”措施一样,碳税政策可能包括“排放保证”条款,或者,正如我们在这里所说的,“环境完整性机制”(EIM),旨在为由此产生的排放量提供更大的确定性。我们提出了三个政治经济学原因,以及一个与国际气候协议有关的实际原因,即环境影响因素可能是美国国会任何政治上成功的碳税(或费用)立法的重要组成部分。
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引用次数: 14
Assessing the Rationale for the U.S. EPA’s Proposed “Strengthening Transparency In Regulatory Science” Rule 评估美国环保局提出的“加强监管科学透明度”规则的理由
IF 5.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/reep/rez017
Madison E. Condon, Michael A. Livermore, J. Shrader
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is considering a new policy that would prohibit the agency from issuing regulations that rely on studies whose underlying data are not publicly available. While the EPA claims it is pursuing this policy in the interest of transparency, we argue that such a prohibition would greatly hinder, rather than help, the rulemaking process and would likely result in undesirable regulatory outcomes that fail to maximize economic welfare. This policy brief argues that a good faith effort to encourage data availability should focus on forward-looking incentives for transparency rather than the exclusion of a whole class of studies, and that weighting older studies based on their evidentiary value is preferable to removing valuable information from agency consideration.
美国环境保护局(EPA)正在考虑一项新政策,禁止该机构发布依赖于基础数据未公开的研究的法规。虽然环保局声称其推行这项政策是为了提高透明度,但我们认为,这样的禁令将极大地阻碍而不是帮助规则制定过程,并可能导致不良的监管结果,无法最大限度地提高经济福利。本政策简报认为,鼓励数据可用性的善意努力应侧重于透明度的前瞻性激励,而不是排除一整类研究,并且根据证据价值对旧研究进行加权比从机构考虑中删除有价值的信息更可取。
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引用次数: 2
An Emissions Assurance Mechanism: Adding Environmental Certainty to a U.S. Carbon Tax 排放保证机制:为美国碳税增加环境确定性
IF 5.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/reep/rez013
G. Metcalf
Economists have long favored a carbon tax as the most efficient policy to curb greenhouse gas emissions. One barrier to broader support for this policy option is its failure to ensure limits on emissions. Environmental groups, in particular, have expressed skepticism about carbon taxes for this failure to explicitly limit emissions. In response, policymakers have shown interest in a hybrid carbon tax that provides some assurance that emissions reduction targets will be met. To demonstrate how such a hybrid tax could work, I propose a prototype emissions assurance mechanism (EAM) that is practical, simple to implement, and easily understood. This EAM would be aimed at achieving a 45 percent reduction in energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, relative to 2005 emissions, by 2035. This would put the United States on track for deep emissions reductions by mid-century. More specifically, the EAM would track actual emissions in each year relative to an emissions pathway. If cumulative emissions exceeded benchmarks along the pathway, then the tax rate would increase annually more rapidly at a rate established in the initial legislation. The emissions pathway is a policy choice that determines desired emission reductions; I suggest that the pathway and EAM be built into carbon tax legislation.
长期以来,经济学家一直认为碳税是遏制温室气体排放的最有效政策。阻碍这一政策方案获得更广泛支持的一个障碍是,它未能确保对排放进行限制。环保组织尤其对碳税未能明确限制排放表示怀疑。作为回应,政策制定者对混合碳税表现出了兴趣,这种税能在一定程度上保证减排目标的实现。为了证明这种混合税是如何运作的,我提出了一种实用、易于实施、易于理解的排放保证机制(EAM)原型。该EAM的目标是到2035年实现与能源相关的二氧化碳(CO2)排放量比2005年减少45%。这将使美国走上到本世纪中叶实现大幅减排的轨道。更具体地说,EAM将根据排放途径跟踪每年的实际排放量。如果累计排放量超过了这条道路上的基准,那么税率将以最初立法规定的速度每年更快地增长。排放途径是一种政策选择,它决定了期望的减排;我建议将途径和EAM纳入碳税立法。
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引用次数: 17
The Benefits and Pitfalls of Using Satellite Data for Causal Inference 利用卫星数据进行因果推理的利弊
IF 5.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/reep/rez023
Meha Jain
There has been growing interest in using satellite data in environmental economics research. This is because satellite data are available for any region across the globe, provide frequent data over time, are becoming available at lower cost, and are becoming easier to process. While satellite data have the potential to be a powerful resource, these data have their own sources of biases and error, which could lead to biased inference, even if analyses are otherwise well-identified. This article discusses the potential benefits and pitfalls of using satellite data for causal inference, focusing on the more technical aspects of using satellite data. In particular, I discuss why it is critical for researchers to understand the error distribution of a given satellite data product and how these errors may result in biased inference. I provide examples of some common types of error, including nonrandom misclassification, saturation effects, atmospheric effects, and cloud cover. If researchers recognize and account for these potential errors and biases, satellite data can be a powerful resource, allowing for large-scale analyses that would otherwise not be possible.
人们对在环境经济学研究中使用卫星数据越来越感兴趣。这是因为卫星数据可用于全球任何地区,随着时间的推移提供频繁的数据,以更低的成本获得,并且变得更容易处理。虽然卫星数据有可能成为一种强大的资源,但这些数据有其自身的偏差和错误来源,即使分析在其他方面得到很好的识别,也可能导致有偏见的推断。本文讨论了使用卫星数据进行因果推理的潜在好处和缺陷,重点关注使用卫星数据的更多技术方面。特别是,我讨论了为什么研究人员了解给定卫星数据产品的误差分布以及这些误差如何导致有偏差的推断是至关重要的。我提供了一些常见错误类型的示例,包括非随机错误分类、饱和度影响、大气影响和云覆盖。如果研究人员认识到并考虑到这些潜在的错误和偏差,卫星数据可以成为一个强大的资源,允许进行大规模的分析,否则是不可能的。
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引用次数: 34
How Should We Think about Environmental Policy and Jobs? An Analogy with Trade Policy and an Illustration from U.S. Coal Mining 我们应该如何看待环境政策和就业?与贸易政策的类比及美国煤矿业的启示
IF 5.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/reep/rez016
Jeremy G. Weber
Public discussions of environmentally motivated policies include much confusing talk about job loss. Does job loss in a polluting industry mean that others should endure dirty air or that complementary policies are needed? To clarify the jobs issue, I use concepts from research on international trade policy and its effects and apply them to recent job loss in the U.S. coal industry. The case of coal illustrates the economic adjustment that could arise from an environmental policy as well as the equity, efficiency, and political issues that adjustment raises. I show that for each coal job lost, earnings in the surrounding county fell by nearly $100,000, and that one-third of those who lost jobs did not move and remained unemployed. On average, the losses affected poorer counties and exacerbated income disparities between counties. Concurrently, coal county voters shifted toward pro-coal candidate Donald Trump in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, helping him win Pennsylvania. More broadly, I argue that environmental adjustment assistance of some form may improve the equity and political feasibility of environmental policies that benefit many but harm some. However, the how and when of such assistance requires further study.
公众对环境激励政策的讨论中包含了许多令人困惑的关于失业的讨论。一个污染行业的失业是否意味着其他人应该忍受肮脏的空气,或者需要补充政策?为了澄清就业问题,我使用了国际贸易政策及其影响研究中的概念,并将其应用于美国煤炭行业最近的失业问题。煤炭的例子说明了环境政策可能带来的经济调整,以及调整带来的公平、效率和政治问题。我指出,每失去一个煤炭工作岗位,周边县的收入就会减少近10万美元,而三分之一的失业者没有搬家,仍然处于失业状态。平均而言,这些损失影响到较贫穷的县,并加剧了县与县之间的收入差距。与此同时,煤炭县的选民在2016年美国总统大选中转而支持支持煤炭的候选人唐纳德·特朗普,帮助他赢得了宾夕法尼亚州。更广泛地说,我认为某种形式的环境调整援助可能会提高环境政策的公平性和政治可行性,这些政策使许多人受益,但损害了一些人。然而,这种援助的方式和时间需要进一步研究。
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引用次数: 11
Marine Plastic Pollution: Sources, Impacts, and Policy Issues 海洋塑料污染:来源、影响和政策问题
IF 5.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2019-08-01 DOI: 10.1093/reep/rez012
B. C. Carney Almroth, H. Eggert
Plastics have been instrumental in providing access to clean drinking water, medical applications, and improved hygiene and food safety. However, plastics also cause problems. More than 10 million tons of plastic enter the oceans annually. Marine plastic pollution has documented impacts on marine organisms and ecosystem services. The use of chemical additives in plastics also poses a potential threat to human health. While desirable, recycling of plastics is currently constrained by material and chemical complexity, limitations in available technologies, and market demands. This article provides a brief introduction to plastic materials, marine plastic pollution, and its potential effects on marine ecosystems and human health. We also discuss some of the policy and technical issues and suggest priorities for further research.
塑料在提供清洁饮用水、医疗应用以及改善卫生和食品安全方面发挥了重要作用。然而,塑料也会引起问题。每年有1000多万吨塑料进入海洋。海洋塑料污染对海洋生物和生态系统服务产生了影响。在塑料中使用化学添加剂也对人类健康构成潜在威胁。尽管塑料的回收是可取的,但目前受到材料和化学复杂性、现有技术的限制以及市场需求的限制。本文简要介绍了塑料材料、海洋塑料污染及其对海洋生态系统和人类健康的潜在影响。我们还讨论了一些政策和技术问题,并提出了进一步研究的优先事项。
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引用次数: 79
期刊
Review of Environmental Economics and Policy
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