Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting最新文献

In income classification shifting, firms shift recurring income components (in core earnings) that are income reducing to items commonly assumed to be nonrecurring (special items) to increase core earnings, which are used by analysts and investors to forecast future earnings and value a firm. Some special items tend to extend over multiple quarters and are more amenable to classification shifting because it is easier to shift core expenses into those items (continuous special items). Nevertheless, as the recurrence of special items increases, the market perceives them more like recurring earnings components (Cready et al. in Account Rev 85(5):1577–1615, 2010), which reduces the benefits of classification shifting. Therefore, we hypothesize that when special items are continuous and first in a sequence of quarterly continuous special items, firms are more likely to use them to shift income than when continuous special items are last in the series. Our results confirm our expectations. The findings highlight that the location of a continuous special item in a sequence of continuous special items affects the likelihood of income classification shifting.

In this paper, we investigate the link between corporate culture and workplace safety. Using a machine learning based measure of corporate culture and data on employee- and safety-related violations, we find that firms with stronger corporate culture are less likely to be penalized, incur lower regulatory fines, and have a reduced number of violations. As a potential channel, we document higher safety expenditures with stronger corporate culture. When we examine establishment-level data on actual injuries and illnesses, we find that firms with stronger corporate culture have significantly lower injury and illness rates. While shareholders have previously been found to benefit from a stronger corporate culture, we contribute with both research and practical implications on the positive effects of a strong corporate culture for employees and society at large.

This paper examines the impact of trade secret laws on the underpricing of initial public offerings (IPOs) in the United States, where we focus on the Uniform Trade Secret Act and/or the inevitable disclosure doctrine. Given that trade secret laws help firms protect their know-how in the form of trade secrets, we propose that trade secrets protected by these laws may result in increased corporate opacity, leading to greater IPO underpricing. Empirically, the average first-day returns of IPOs in states with trade secret laws are 12.7% higher than those in states without such laws. Using the information disclosed in the 10-K report on whether the firm owns trade secrets, we suggest that the existence of trade secret laws enhances the protection effect of firm maintenance of trade secrets, which leads to greater IPO underpricing. Further analyses show that the effect of trade secret laws is reinforced for IPO firms operating in complex industries, IPO firms with R&D investments, and large IPO firms, suggesting that trade secret laws increase the difficulties investors face in assessing the intrinsic value of such firms.

We examine the causal effect of reduced disclosure levels on the risk of default. Employing regression discontinuity (RD) design as our main identification strategy and the smaller reporting company rule (SRC rule) as the exogenous source of variation, we show that smaller reporting companies (SRCs), which are permitted to provide scaled disclosures in their 10-Ks, experience significantly and economically higher default risk. We demonstrate that, while there is no effect of information loss if a smaller reporting company voluntarily maintains its disclosure level by continuing to report its financial performance in full, there is an increase in its default risk due to the loss of commitment to mandatory disclosure. We also find that, compared to previously qualified SRCs, newly qualified smaller reporting companies face steeper increases in bankruptcy risk during their first year of eligibility. Our analysis indicates that strong external oversight mechanisms, better corporate governance, and credible audit quality attenuate the negative impact of reduced disclosure levels on the risk of default. Our results are robust to alternative model specifications, RD design assumptions, and measures of default risk.

Abstract

This study investigates whether some regulatory and contextual features influenced Euro Area listed banks decisions to manage earnings and regulatory capital through discretionary provisions in the period 2013–2018. The new regulation factors are the pressure to increase high-quality regulatory capital (Basel III) and more timely recognition of loan losses (IFRS 9). The contextual features are the intensified banking competition at a national level, and the significant money market pressure. Results demonstrate that the pressure to increase high-quality regulatory capital for banks with lower Common Equity Tier 1 capital (CET1) in year t − 1 is negatively associated with upward earnings and capital management in year t. The more timely recognition of loan losses in year t compared to year t + 1 is negatively associated with upward earnings and capital management in year t. The strengthening of banking competition is positively associated with upward earnings management, but not associated with upward capital management. The increasing money market pressure is negatively associated with upward earnings management, but not associated with upward capital management. This study should be helpful to standard-setters, regulators, investors and academics interested in incentives and constraints to earnings and capital management by providing evidence regarding how listed banks reacted to the regulatory, accounting, and contextual factors, observed holistically during a unique historical period (i.e., 2013–2018) and regulatory setting (i.e., European banking sector).

Abstract

The authors examined the possible adverse effect of hot temperature on firms’ profitability and stock performance, using measures of various scorching temperature variables as exogenous indicators of firms’ weather risk. The results show that scorching temperatures led to declines in the sample firms’ earnings caused by changes in sales, expenses, and productivity. The more extreme the hot weather, the more the earnings declined. In further investigations, the authors found that this impact of scorching temperatures was heterogeneous over time and across sectors, geographical locations, and levels of economic development. The impact was most severe in low-latitude regions, especially tropical and subtropical countries from 2013 onward. It was also found that extremely hot temperatures negatively influenced the stock returns of individual firms. This effect, mediated by the firm’s earnings, was especially strong for value stocks and small cap stocks. Our results also show that the firms’ profitability and stock performance are exacerbated by the increases in global average temperatures and provide the direct evidences of the adverse impact of global warming on individual firms. Finally, weather uncertainty aggravated the volatility of earnings and stock returns.

Abstract

Earnings management has long been one of the main concerns in accounting and management literature, and the extent to which corporate governance mechanisms can discipline management behaviour and prevent earnings management has attracted increasing interest among policy makers and academic researchers. Differing from previous corporate governance literature that focuses mainly on the board and auditors, we explore the role of creditors in corporate governance. In particular, we examine the effect of bank intervention on earnings management via the lens of debt covenant violations, where control rights are transferred to creditors (banks). Using a Difference-in-Difference approach, we find that firms reduce both their accruals-based and real earnings management following debt covenant violations. The negative effect on earnings management is more prominent when banks possess greater bargaining and monitoring power and when firms are more financially constrained. By identifying a specific channel through which debt providers influence corporate financial reporting, our findings suggest that creditors can play an important role in governing organisations and disciplining management behaviour.

Leveraging the availability of a large panel of signed trade data in the corporate bond market, we explore how machine learning methods can be used to improve upon standard trade direction classification methods in markets in general, both with and without pre-trade transparency. Using the signed data set allows us to show how both the trading and information environment at the time of the trade critically affect the accuracy of existing trade classification rules in general and also illustrate the importance of optimizing the feature set in correctly classifying trade direction. These insights extend to the equity market.

This study investigates the propagation of default risk along the supply chain. We adopt a modified version of the firm-specific upstreamness measure from Gofman et al. (Rev Financ Stud 33:5856–5905, 2020) to assess each firm's vertical distance to the final consumption products in the supply chain. We find that upstream firms are more exposed to default risk, and the upstream effect is more substantial for firms that belong to less prominent, more leveraged, and less diverse supply chains. We also find that a distressed firm only affects its upstream suppliers but not its downstream customers. Our results are robust across various empirical specifications.

Order backlog is an important non-GAAP metric that is a leading indicator of future earnings. We explore how various fundamental analysis metrics interacted with order backlog impacts future earnings. This study examines whether future earnings predicted by order backlog is contingent on other fundamental analysis metrics, such as a sales decrease, the cash conversion cycle, asset growth, and the ratio of order backlog to sales. We find that order backlog is an even more informative leading indicator of future earnings when sales decrease, the cash conversion cycle is longer, and asset growth is higher. In contrast, we find that order backlog in the presence of a higher order backlog to sales ratio predicts lower future earnings. We also find that market participants incorporate the moderating effect of order backlog on sales decreases and the cash conversion cycle, while we do not find the same evidence with asset growth and the backlog to sales ratio. These empirical findings are important for managers who want to effectively communicate the prospects of a firm’s future profitability, and for investors who want to understand the financial fundamentals of firms with an order backlog. Overall, our findings show that the informativeness of order backlog can be conditional on fundamental analysis metrics in certain instances.