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Structural changes in the Brazilian economy 1990–2015 1990年至2015年巴西经济的结构变化
IF 2.5 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-09-23 DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2020.1802234
J. F. S. Sousa Filho, G. F. Santos, Luiz Carlos de Santana Ribeiro
This paper analyses the structural changes in the Brazilian economy from 1990 to 2015 by applying structural decomposition analysis (SDA). The production structure of emerging economies is an important field of research because it enables the assessment of sectoral policies and technological progress to support sustained economic growth in the long-term. The investigation described here was conducted using input–output matrices for a short and long-term analysis which enabled us to verify the importance of twelve aggregate sectors regarding changes in production, final demand and technological coefficients. This topic could be used for such analyses in any other country. The results indicate that the production structure of Brazilian economy remains fragile and dependent on demand shocks for its growth. Furthermore, manufacturing industry remains the major sector capable of promoting structural changes in production.
本文运用结构分解分析法(SDA)分析了1990年至2015年巴西经济的结构变化。新兴经济体的生产结构是一个重要的研究领域,因为它能够评估部门政策和技术进步,以支持长期的持续经济增长。这里描述的调查是使用投入-产出矩阵进行短期和长期分析的,这使我们能够验证12个总部门在生产、最终需求和技术系数变化方面的重要性。这一专题可用于任何其他国家的此类分析。结果表明,巴西经济的生产结构仍然脆弱,其增长依赖于需求冲击。此外,制造业仍然是能够促进生产结构变革的主要部门。
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引用次数: 5
Weaponized trade policy: the impact of US tariffs on the European automobile sector 武器化贸易政策:美国关税对欧洲汽车行业的影响
IF 2.5 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-09-07 DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2020.1804330
Carlos Llano, Julián Pérez, Fátima El Khatabi, F. Steinberg
With trade tensions running high, the Trump Administration is considering new tariffs on imported automobiles, and the main target would be the European Union, traditionally America’s closest ally. In this paper we combine disaggregated models to estimate the impact of these tariffs worldwide, and especially on Spain. First, a trade-policy simulation model computes the potential effects worldwide. Then we plug these into the World Input–Output Database, obtaining the inter-sectoral effects of the tariffs on Europe and the rest of the world. Finally, we insert these results into the Spanish inter-regional Input–Output Tables, obtaining final effects for Spanish regions via their inter-sectoral relations with the European Union and the rest of the world. By our calculation, the new US auto tariffs could end up destroying 10,400 jobs in Spain alone and 567,000 jobs worldwide. Moreover, they might have unexpected consequences, affecting, Spanish regions and sectors that just indirectly depend on the automobile industry.
随着贸易紧张局势加剧,特朗普政府正在考虑对进口汽车征收新关税,主要目标将是欧盟,传统上美国最亲密的盟友。在本文中,我们结合分类模型来估计这些关税在全球范围内的影响,尤其是对西班牙的影响。首先,贸易政策模拟模型计算了全球范围内的潜在影响。然后,我们将这些数据插入世界投入产出数据库,获得关税对欧洲和世界其他地区的跨部门影响。最后,我们将这些结果插入西班牙地区间投入产出表,通过西班牙地区与欧盟和世界其他地区的部门间关系,获得西班牙地区的最终效果。根据我们的计算,美国新的汽车关税最终可能仅在西班牙就摧毁10400个工作岗位,在全球范围内摧毁567000个工作岗位。此外,它们可能会产生意想不到的后果,影响西班牙间接依赖汽车业的地区和部门。
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引用次数: 3
The role of rurality in determining the economy-wide impacts of a natural disaster 农村在决定自然灾害对整个经济的影响方面的作用
IF 2.5 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-09-06 DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2020.1814206
A. Bonfiglio, S. Coderoni, R. Esposti, E. Baldoni
Rural areas may be highly vulnerable to natural disasters because of their lower economic diversification and a higher incidence of sectors that may suffer from a larger impact produced by these adverse events. In addition, because of their trade dependence, local effects can be transmitted to neighbouring regions more diffusely so amplifying total impacts. This paper aims to quantify the economy-wide impacts generated by the earthquake sequence that mostly hit a markedly rural area of Central Italy in 2016–2017. To this purpose, a non-linear programming model based on a multi-regional IO table with a mixed territorial scale is adopted. Results indicate that some negative effects are transmitted outside the seismic area and a few positive effects are also produced. Moreover, they confirm that rural areas are more vulnerable to disasters and that the effects of disasters in these areas are more likely to be transmitted to the neighbouring space.
农村地区可能极易受到自然灾害的影响,因为它们的经济多样化程度较低,而且受这些不利事件影响较大的部门发生率较高。此外,由于它们对贸易的依赖,局部影响可以更广泛地传播到邻近地区,从而放大总体影响。本文旨在量化2016-2017年主要袭击意大利中部农村地区的地震序列对整个经济的影响。为此,采用了一种基于混合地域尺度的多区域IO表的非线性规划模型。结果表明,一些负面影响在震区外传播,也产生了一些正面影响。此外,他们证实,农村地区更容易受到灾害的影响,这些地区的灾害影响更有可能传播到邻近地区。
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引用次数: 7
A multiregional input–output optimization model to assess impacts of water supply disruptions under climate change on the Great Lakes economy 评估气候变化下供水中断对大湖区经济影响的多区域投入产出优化模型
IF 2.5 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-08-19 DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2020.1805414
J. Garcia-Hernandez, R. Brouwer
This paper presents a water-restricted multi-regional input–output model to evaluate the economic impacts of water supply reductions in the Canadian Great Lakes Basin (GLB), one of the largest freshwater reservoirs in the world. The proposed model, first of its kind applied to the GLB, aims to minimize the impact of water supply disruptions on the GLB-economy, measured by the loss of GDP. A new flexible economic optimization procedure is introduced, capable of imposing resource constraints and ensuring minimal supply levels for intermediate and final consumption at the same time. The model accounts for inter-regional trade between different lake regions. The impacts of two climate change scenarios on water security and the economy are investigated, with and without additional food and energy security restrictions. The proposed economic optimization model holds promise as a new tool for resource-restricted Input–Output analyses.
本文建立了一个水资源限制的多区域投入产出模型,以评估世界上最大的淡水水库之一——加拿大大湖盆地(GLB)的供水减少对经济的影响。该模型首次应用于GLB,旨在将供水中断对GLB经济的影响降到最低,以GDP损失来衡量。提出了一种新的灵活的经济优化程序,能够施加资源限制,同时确保中间和最终消费的最低供应水平。该模型考虑了不同湖区之间的区域间贸易。研究了两种气候变化情景对水安全和经济的影响,包括是否有额外的粮食和能源安全限制。所提出的经济优化模型有望成为资源受限投入产出分析的新工具。
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引用次数: 7
Defining prices in an inter-regional SAM system 在区域间地空资产管理系统中定义价格
IF 2.5 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-08-18 DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2020.1804331
M. Llop
The literature of inter-regional social accounting matrices (SAM) focuses on quantity-oriented models that determine the transmission of income impacts. This paper develops a price version to identify the channels of price transmission at the inter-regional (or inter-country) level. The method proposed divides the total multiplier effects into intra-regional price multipliers (i.e. the cost impacts within a region), open loop inter-regional price multipliers (i.e. the cost impacts from one region on another by quantifying all the within-region impacts), and closed loop inter-regional price multipliers (i.e. the circular cost impacts transiting through the accounts in the other region and returning to the starting region). In addition, the intra-regional multipliers are divided into the intra-account, the inter-account and the cross-account (circular) effects. The empirical application, which uses a bi-regional SAM that distinguishes the United States (USA) and China (CHN), highlights the importance of the within-region interdependences for explaining price impacts.
区域间社会核算矩阵(SAM)的文献侧重于确定收入影响传递的数量导向模型。本文开发了一个价格版本,以确定地区间(或国家间)的价格传导渠道。所提出的方法将总乘数效应分为区域内价格乘数(即一个区域内的成本影响)、开环区域间价格乘数(通过量化所有区域内影响,以及闭环区域间价格乘数(即循环成本影响通过其他区域的账户转移并返回起始区域)。此外,区域内乘数分为账户内、账户间和跨账户(循环)效应。该实证应用使用了区分美国和中国的双区域SAM,强调了区域内相互依存关系对解释价格影响的重要性。
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引用次数: 2
Flow-of-funds structure of the U.S. economy 2001–2018 2001-2008年美国经济的资金流动结构
IF 2.5 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-07-27 DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2020.1795629
Masako Tsujimura, Kazusuke Tsujimura
Great inventions and substantial productivity growth of the Roaring Twenties brought unprecedented prosperity to the United States. After Black Thursday in the fall of 1929 however, the U.S. economic landscape changed dramatically. To ensure that the bitter experience of the Great Depression does not recur, Wesley Mitchell and Morris Copeland, the architects of flow-of-funds analysis, urged a better understanding of the circulation of funds, the means of payment. The new century has so far brought us many technological innovations and new ways of doing business. The objective of the paper is to find out if and how well the funds have been flowing in the U.S. economy over the past two decades, using the flow-of-funds matrix (payer-payee matrix) proposed by Tsujimura and Tsujimura ([2018]. A flow of funds analysis of the U.S. quantitative easing. Economic Systems Research, 30(2), 137–177. https://doi.org/10.1080/09535314.2018.1443908). The industrial revolution of the new century does not seem to have enough momentum circulating funds, the lifeblood of the economy.
咆哮的二十年代的伟大发明和生产力的大幅增长为美国带来了前所未有的繁荣。然而,在1929年秋季的黑色星期四之后,美国经济形势发生了巨大变化。为了确保大萧条的痛苦经历不会重演,资金流动分析的设计者韦斯利·米切尔和莫里斯·科普兰敦促人们更好地了解资金的流动,即支付方式。到目前为止,新世纪给我们带来了许多技术创新和新的经营方式。本文的目的是利用Tsujimura和Tsujimura([2018])提出的资金流动矩阵(付款人-收款人矩阵),了解过去二十年来资金在美国经济中的流动情况。美国量化宽松的资金流动分析。经济系统研究,30(2),137-177。https://doi.org/10.1080/09535314.2018.1443908)。新世纪的工业革命似乎没有足够的动力来流动资金,这是经济的命脉。
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引用次数: 2
Constructing an open access economy-wide database for bioeconomy impact assessment in the European Union member states 构建开放获取的欧盟成员国生物经济影响评估经济数据库
IF 2.5 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-07-27 DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2020.1785848
Alfredo J. Mainar‐Causapé, G. Philippidis, A. Sanjuán-López
ABSTRACT The bioeconomy encompasses the extraction, processing and transformation of renewable biological resources and waste streams, connected to activities as diverse as food, feed, energy and manufacturing. Under the auspices of the European Union’s ‘Green Deal' strategy, this broad collective of sectors is promoted as a cornerstone for achieving sustainable growth. Progress in developing ex-ante tools of economy-wide modelling analysis to assess its performance is, however, hindered by a paucity of consistent and comprehensive data. To overcome this shortcoming, the construction steps for a new set of open access social accounting matrices (dubbed ‘BioSAMs’) is described for a detailed and comprehensive selection of traditional and contemporary bio-based accounts for each of the EU member states. To illustrate its potential, a structural analysis based on three different and complementary methods (Rasmussen-Jones, hypothetical extraction method and eigenvector) is performed to classify bio-based sector wealth generating properties and to identify high performance (‘key') sectors.
摘要生物经济包括可再生生物资源和废物流的提取、加工和转化,与食品、饲料、能源和制造业等多种活动有关。在欧盟“绿色协议”战略的支持下,这一广泛的部门集体被宣传为实现可持续增长的基石。然而,由于缺乏一致和全面的数据,在开发全经济建模分析的事前工具以评估其业绩方面的进展受到阻碍。为了克服这一缺点,描述了一套新的开放获取社会会计矩阵(称为“BioSAM”)的构建步骤,以详细全面地选择每个欧盟成员国的传统和现代生物账户。为了说明其潜力,基于三种不同且互补的方法(Rasmussen Jones、假设提取方法和特征向量)进行了结构分析,以对基于生物的部门财富产生属性进行分类,并确定高性能(“关键”)部门。
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引用次数: 7
David Hawkins and the making of the Hawkins-Simon conditions 大卫·霍金斯和霍金-西蒙条件的形成
IF 2.5 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-07-25 DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2020.1794799
Wilfried Parys
The Hawkins-Simon conditions, which are necessary and sufficient for the viability of input–output systems, are described in many encyclopedias, textbooks and papers, but always without historical details about the philosopher David Hawkins. The rich literature on the history of input–output economics has neglected Hawkins, probably because he spent only a few years among the economists. My paper fills this gap. By using the relevant archival material on Hawkins, Simon, and Leontief, I correct and expand some scarce remarks on Hawkins by Simon and Samuelson. I discuss Hawkins’s three remarkable contributions to economics. First, Hawkins’s dynamic input–output model in Econometrica in 1948 scooped Leontief. Second, I show how the correspondence between Hawkins and Simon created their famous joint note in Econometrica in 1949. Third, an overlooked chapter in Hawkins’s 1964 book The Language of Nature discussed the commodity values of commodities, generalizing Marx’s labour values and the Technocrats's energy values.
许多百科全书、教科书和论文都描述了霍金斯-西蒙条件,这是输入-输出系统生存所必需的和充分的条件,但总是没有关于哲学家大卫·霍金斯的历史细节。关于投入产出经济学历史的丰富文献忽略了霍金斯,可能是因为他在经济学家中只呆了几年。我的论文填补了这一空白。通过使用霍金斯、西蒙和莱昂惕夫的相关档案材料,我纠正并扩展了西蒙和萨缪尔森对霍金斯的一些稀缺评论。我将讨论霍金斯对经济学的三大杰出贡献。首先,霍金斯1948年在《计量经济学》(Econometrica)上提出的动态投入产出模型抢了莱昂惕夫的先机。其次,我展示了霍金斯和西蒙之间的通信如何在1949年的《计量经济学》(Econometrica)上创造了他们著名的联合笔记。第三,在霍金斯1964年出版的《自然的语言》一书中,有一个被忽视的章节讨论了商品的商品价值,概括了马克思的劳动价值和技术官僚的能源价值。
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引用次数: 0
Uncertainty measures for economic accounts 经济账户的不确定性度量
IF 2.5 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-07-22 DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2020.1792843
N. Mushkudiani, J. Pannekoek, Li‐Chun Zhang
The problem of adjusting large systems of estimated economic or social accounts such that they fulfill known functional relationships can be quite complex. For such complex systems, evaluating the accuracy of the estimates after the adjustment is difficult since these estimates are defined by unadjusted initial estimates, the accounting equations and the adjustment method. In this paper, we consider such accounting systems as a single entity and develop scalar uncertainty measures that are based on the first two moments of the joint distribution of final adjusted estimates. Scalar measures can help to effectively communicate to the users the relevant uncertainty of disseminated macro-economic accounts and can assist the producer in choosing and improving adjustment method and input estimators. The proposed approach is illustrated both analytically and by simulation. Applications to supply and use tables and to time series data are presented.
调整估计的经济或社会帐户的大型系统,使它们满足已知的功能关系的问题可能相当复杂。对于这样复杂的系统,由于这些估计是由未调整的初始估计、会计方程和调整方法定义的,因此很难评估调整后估计的准确性。在本文中,我们将这样的会计系统视为一个单一的实体,并开发基于最终调整估计联合分布的前两个矩的标量不确定性度量。标量度量有助于有效地向用户传达传播宏观经济核算的相关不确定性,并有助于生产者选择和改进调整方法和投入估计量。通过分析和仿真验证了该方法的有效性。介绍了提供和使用表格以及时间序列数据的应用。
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引用次数: 2
Evaluating the impact of violence against women in the macroeconomic Input–Output framework 在宏观经济投入产出框架中评估暴力侵害妇女行为的影响
IF 2.5 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-07-16 DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2020.1790505
C. Ciaschini, F. Chelli
Violence against women and girls (VAW&G) has progressively become an emergency issue in many European countries and a relevant topic of public discussion. In this paper, we attempt to insert this theme within a model for macroeconomic policy design and evaluation. Special attention is devoted to the assessment of distortions in the allocation of public expenditure generated by VAW&G, in terms of gains and losses in aggregate total output. We adopt a macroeconomic input–output approach by adding to the framework an industry that produces care services to victims of VAW&G. The resulting model is integrated with the public expenditure reallocations that emerge as a result of the progressive elimination of violence. It is, thus, a simulation tool for determining total output gains or losses that emerge from the reallocation of public expenditures as VAW&G fades.
对妇女和女孩的暴力行为已逐渐成为许多欧洲国家的一个紧急问题,也是公众讨论的一个相关话题。在本文中,我们试图将这一主题插入宏观经济政策设计和评估的模型中。特别注意评估VAW&G产生的公共支出分配扭曲,即总产出的收益和损失。我们采用宏观经济投入-产出的方法,在框架中增加一个为暴力侵害妇女行为受害者提供护理服务的行业。由此产生的模式与逐步消除暴力所产生的公共支出再分配相结合。因此,它是一个模拟工具,用于确定随着VAW&G的消退,公共支出重新分配产生的总产出收益或损失。
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引用次数: 5
期刊
Economic Systems Research
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