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Energy efficiency and rebound effects in German industry – evidence from macroeconometric modeling 德国工业的能源效率和反弹效应——来自宏观经济计量模型的证据
IF 2.5 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-06-11 DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2021.1937953
C. Lutz, Maximilian Banning, L. Ahmann, Markus Flaute
Increases in energy efficiency are reduced by the rebound effect. Efficiency gains on the micro level do not lead to proportionate reductions of energy consumption on the macro level. The German energy-economy model PANTA RHEI is applied to better understand the rebound effect. To get more robust estimates micro data from a cost structure survey of the German manufacturing sector was used to derive price elasticities of energy demand. The mesoeconomic rebound effect of an autonomous increase in energy efficiency at the industry level in manufacturing is between 7% in 2021 and 12% in 2030. The macroeconomic rebound effect lies between 12% in 2021 and 18% in 2030. Inclusion of necessary investment and assumptions of higher elasticities of substitution increase the effects. Rebound effects limit the scope of technology-driven efficiency improvements and must be considered in the design of ambitious energy efficiency programs and climate policies.
能源效率的提高会因反弹效应而降低。微观层面的效率提高并不能导致宏观层面的能源消耗相应减少。应用德国能源经济模型PANTA RHEI来更好地理解反弹效应。为了获得更稳健的估计,德国制造业成本结构调查的微观数据被用来推导能源需求的价格弹性。制造业行业层面能源效率自主提高的中间经济反弹效应在2021年为7%至2030年为12%。宏观经济反弹效应在2021年的12%到2030年的18%之间。包括必要的投资和假设更高的替代弹性会增加影响。反弹效应限制了技术驱动的效率提高的范围,在设计雄心勃勃的能源效率计划和气候政策时必须加以考虑。
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引用次数: 10
Who’s afraid of Virginia Wu? US employment footprints and self-sufficiency 谁害怕吴?美国就业足迹和自给自足
IF 2.5 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-06-11 DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2021.1935219
Timon Bohn, S. Brakman, E. Dietzenbacher
Globalization has brought about concerns of domestic job losses due to outsourcing to countries like China. The ‘employment footprint’ concept provides new insights into the implications of trade for employment. Using this approach for the period of 1995–2008, we analyze the relation of US jobs with international trade, particularly with China. Furthermore, we compare the US employment footprint with its labor endowment to assess if the country could be self-sufficient in terms of labor. We find that the US’s consumption increasingly depends on foreign workers. The country ‘consumes’ more labor than is nationally available; thus, self-sufficiency is not possible under realistic assumptions. Moreover, the US has benefited from jobs – especially in services – generated by the world economy. Referring to Albee’s famous play about living in illusions, we use ‘Virginia Wu’ as a Chinese version of ‘Virginia Woolf’ to argue that the perceived threat of China (Virginia Wu) is only an illusion.
全球化带来了人们对外包给中国等国家导致国内失业的担忧。“就业足迹”概念为贸易对就业的影响提供了新的见解。在1995-2008年期间,我们使用这种方法分析了美国就业与国际贸易,特别是与中国的贸易的关系。此外,我们将美国的就业足迹与其劳动力禀赋进行了比较,以评估该国在劳动力方面是否能够自给自足。我们发现,美国的消费越来越依赖外国工人。该国“消耗”的劳动力比全国可用的劳动力多;因此,在现实的假设下,自给自足是不可能的。此外,美国还受益于世界经济创造的就业机会,尤其是服务业。参考艾尔比关于生活在幻觉中的著名戏剧,我们用“弗吉尼亚·吴”作为“弗吉尼亚·伍尔夫”的中文版,认为中国(弗吉尼亚·吴)的威胁只是一种幻觉。
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引用次数: 3
On the plausibility of using linear programming to trace important input–output coefficients in the framework of tolerable limits 在容许极限的框架下,利用线性规划追踪重要的投入产出系数的可行性
IF 2.5 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-05-06 DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2021.1919603
Łukasz Lach
Recent input–output (IO) literature offers original proposals on using linear programming (LP) to make ‘tolerable limits’ approach suitable for measuring the importance of IO coefficients to an economy. In this paper, I focus on one of such influential proposals presented in Tarancón et al. [(2008). A revision of the tolerable limits approach: searching for the important coefficients. Economic Systems Research, 20, 75–95]. In the theoretical part of this paper, I provide exact analytical solutions to the LP problems formulated in Tarancón et al. The main result proves that the classification of IO coefficients with respect to their importance in the sense of the LP-based indicators of Tarancón et al. does not depend on the benchmark welfare measure of interest. This fact, in turn, severely reduces practical applicability of the discussed LP-based approach to tracing important IO coefficients.
最近的投入产出(IO)文献提供了关于使用线性规划(LP)使“可容忍极限”方法适用于衡量IO系数对经济的重要性的原始建议。在这篇论文中,我关注Tarancón等人提出的一个有影响力的建议。[(2008)。可容忍极限方法的修订:寻找重要系数。经济系统研究,20,75–95]。在本文的理论部分,我对Tarancón等人提出的LP问题提供了精确的分析解。主要结果证明,在Tarancín等人基于LP的指标意义上,IO系数的重要性分类并不取决于利益的基准福利衡量。这一事实反过来又严重降低了所讨论的基于LP的方法追踪重要IO系数的实际适用性。
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引用次数: 1
Multi-perspective structural analysis of supply chain networks 供应链网络的多视角结构分析
IF 2.5 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-03-12 DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2021.1883552
T. Hanaka, Keiichiro Kanemoto, S. Kagawa
ABSTRACT Determining the structural positions and characteristics of multi-role sectors is critical for understanding supply chain networks. Thus, in this study, we developed an attribution analysis framework to assess the structure of sectors with multiple roles in a supply chain. Subsequently, we applied the framework in a case study, where the top-ranking Japanese sectors were identified for production-oriented, betweenness-oriented, and consumption-oriented carbon dioxide emission scores. Additionally, these attribution indicators were utilized to identify/visualize the structural positions of sectors. Using company-level data, we also evaluated the structural positions of Japanese companies in relation to their carbon disclosure project (CDP) reporting practices. The results demonstrate that a company's role in the supply chain is unlikely to be related to CDP reporting.
确定多角色部门的结构位置和特征对于理解供应链网络至关重要。因此,在本研究中,我们开发了一个归因分析框架来评估供应链中具有多个角色的部门的结构。随后,我们在一个案例研究中应用了该框架,在该案例研究中,我们确定了以生产为导向、以中介为导向和以消费为导向的二氧化碳排放得分最高的日本部门。此外,这些归因指标被用来确定/可视化部门的结构位置。利用公司层面的数据,我们还评估了日本公司在碳披露项目(CDP)报告实践方面的结构地位。结果表明,公司在供应链中的角色不太可能与CDP报告相关。
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引用次数: 7
The Euro and SUT-RAS methods: some further considerations 欧元和SUT-RAS方法:一些进一步的考虑
IF 2.5 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-03-12 DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2021.1883553
J. M. Valderas‐Jaramillo, J. Rueda‐Cantuche, Joerg Beutel
The main objective of this paper is to revisit the Euro method in a critical and constructive way. We have analysed some arguments against the Euro method published recently in the literature as well as some other relevant aspects of the SUT-Euro and SUT-RAS methods not covered before. Although not being the Euro method perfect, we believe that there is still space for the use of the Euro method in updating/regionalizing Supply and Use tables.
本文的主要目的是以一种批判性和建设性的方式重新审视欧元方法。我们分析了最近在文献中发表的一些反对Euro方法的论点,以及以前没有涉及的SUT-Euro和SUT-RAS方法的一些其他相关方面。尽管欧元方法并不完美,但我们相信,在更新/区域化供应和使用表时,欧元方法仍有使用空间。
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引用次数: 2
Brexit deal done! A detailed micro- and macroeconomic analysis of its fallout 英国脱欧协议达成!详细的微观和宏观经济分析其影响
IF 2.5 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-03-02 DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2021.1887089
J. Cubells, M. Latorre
We offer a rich set of macroeconomic and sectoral effects of Brexit in France, together with macroeconomic ones for the UK, the rest of the EU and the rest of the world. We explain the intuition for the impact on production and trade across the 21 sectors that underlie our macroeconomic estimations (national imports and exports, output, GDP, welfare, wages and rental rate of capital). Our comprehensive technique captures the direct and indirect effects of Brexit on trade. Four types of withdrawal are analysed, including the finally agreed between the EU and the UK on December 2020. This will avoid tariffs, but other medium size (non-tariff) barriers will emerge. The UK, France and the rest of the EU will be harmed by Brexit, although asymmetrically. While Brexit will substantially harm the UK economy, the negative impact on France and the rest of the EU will be limited and similar.
我们提供了一整套丰富的英国脱欧对法国的宏观经济和行业影响,以及对英国、欧盟其他国家和世界其他地区的宏观经济影响。我们解释了21个部门对生产和贸易的影响的直觉,这些部门构成了我们宏观经济估计的基础(国家进出口、产出、GDP、福利、工资和资本租金率)。我们的综合技术捕捉到了英国脱欧对贸易的直接和间接影响。分析了四种类型的脱欧,包括欧盟和英国在2020年12月达成的最终协议。这将避免关税,但其他中等规模的(非关税)壁垒将出现。英国、法国和欧盟其他国家将受到英国退欧的伤害,尽管这是不对称的。虽然英国脱欧将严重损害英国经济,但对法国和欧盟其他国家的负面影响将是有限的,而且是相似的。
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引用次数: 0
Simultaneous supply and demand constraints in input–output networks: the case of Covid-19 in Germany, Italy, and Spain 投入产出网络中同时存在的供需约束:德国、意大利和西班牙的新冠肺炎案例
IF 2.5 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-01-19 DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2021.1926934
Anton Pichler, J. Farmer
Natural and anthropogenic disasters frequently affect both the supply and demand sides of an economy. A striking recent example is the Covid-19 pandemic which has created severe disruptions to economic output in most countries. These direct shocks to supply and demand will propagate downstream and upstream through production networks. Given the exogenous shocks, we derive a lower bound on total shock propagation. We find that even in this best case scenario network effects substantially amplify the initial shocks. To obtain more realistic model predictions, we study the propagation of shocks bottom-up by imposing different rationing rules on industries if they are not able to satisfy incoming demand. Our results show that economic impacts depend strongly on the emergence of input bottlenecks, making the rationing assumption a key variable in predicting adverse economic impacts. We further establish that the magnitude of initial shocks and network density heavily influence model predictions.
自然灾害和人为灾害经常影响经济的供需双方。最近一个引人注目的例子是新冠肺炎疫情,它严重破坏了大多数国家的经济产出。这些对供应和需求的直接冲击将通过生产网络向下游和上游传播。考虑到外生冲击,我们得出了总冲击传播的下界。我们发现,即使在这种最好的情况下,网络效应也会大大放大最初的冲击。为了获得更现实的模型预测,我们通过对无法满足传入需求的行业施加不同的配给规则,自下而上地研究冲击的传播。我们的研究结果表明,经济影响在很大程度上取决于投入瓶颈的出现,这使得配给假设成为预测不利经济影响的关键变量。我们进一步证实,初始冲击的大小和网络密度对模型预测有很大影响。
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引用次数: 26
Export-sustained employment: accounting for exporter-heterogeneity in input–output tables 出口持续就业:投入产出表中出口商异质性的核算
IF 2.5 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-01-08 DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2020.1869701
B. Michel, Caroline Hambÿe
ABSTRACT Exports matter for domestic employment in both export-producing firms and upstream suppliers. Their total effect can be captured through an input–output-based indicator of export-sustained employment. However, as industry classifications used in regular input–output tables are based on product similarity, they fail to account for within-industry technological heterogeneity between exporters and other firms, which may lead to a bias in results for export-sustained employment. In this paper, we describe the breakdown of manufacturing industries into export-oriented and domestic-oriented firms in Belgian input–output tables and employment data based on detailed firm-level data for industry totals and input–output structures. Based on the resulting export-heterogeneous tables, we find that 585,000 jobs or 13% of economy-wide employment in Belgium is sustained by manufacturing exports. This is overestimated by 4% with regular tables. Moreover, we identify who contributes to and who gains from exports for groups of firms rather than aggregated industries.
出口对出口生产企业和上游供应商的国内就业都很重要。它们的总效应可以通过基于投入产出的出口可持续就业指标来衡量。然而,由于常规投入产出表中使用的行业分类是基于产品相似性,它们无法解释出口商和其他公司之间的行业内技术异质性,这可能导致出口持续就业结果的偏差。在本文中,我们在比利时的投入产出表和就业数据中描述了制造业为出口导向型和内向型企业的分解,这些数据基于详细的企业层面的行业总量和投入产出结构数据。根据得出的出口异质表,我们发现比利时585,000个就业岗位或13%的经济就业岗位是由制造业出口维持的。对于常规表,这被高估了4%。此外,我们确定了谁为企业集团(而不是总体行业)的出口做出了贡献,谁从出口中获益。
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引用次数: 2
How will natural gas market reforms affect carbon marginal abatement costs? Evidence from China 天然气市场改革将如何影响碳边际减排成本?来自中国的证据
IF 2.5 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-01-06 DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2020.1868410
Hong-Dian Jiang, Meimei Xue, Kangyin Dong, Qiao-Mei Liang
Having recognised the significant role of natural gas in reducing carbon abatement costs, China is rapidly promoting its growth. However, obvious distortions exist in China’s natural gas market, and it is unclear how these may affect abatement policies going forward. Therefore, to assess the effects of energy market distortions on the carbon marginal abatement costs (MACs) in China, this study proposes a computable general equilibrium model for China’s natural gas sector, which considers the monopoly market structure, price regulation, and import restrictions. Results show that deregulation of gas prices will lead to an effective decrease in China’s MACs. China’s MACs are insensitive to liberalisation of the market monopoly or gas import restrictions. When all three distortions are fully deregulated, China’s MACs show an obvious upward trend. Finally, this study uses China's carbon trading policies as an example to propose policy implications under different scenarios of natural gas market reform.
在认识到天然气在降低碳减排成本方面的重要作用后,中国正在迅速推动其增长。然而,中国天然气市场存在明显的扭曲,目前尚不清楚这将如何影响未来的减排政策。因此,为了评估能源市场扭曲对中国碳边际减排成本(MACs)的影响,本研究提出了考虑垄断市场结构、价格管制和进口限制的中国天然气部门可计算一般均衡模型。结果表明,天然气价格放松管制将导致中国MACs的有效下降。中国的石油公司对市场垄断自由化或天然气进口限制不敏感。当这三种扭曲都被完全解除管制时,中国的mac表现出明显的上升趋势。最后,本文以中国碳交易政策为例,提出了天然气市场改革不同情景下的政策含义。
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引用次数: 21
Multi-dynamic interregional input-output shift-share: model, theory and application 多动态区域间投入产出转移份额:模型、理论与应用
IF 2.5 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-01-06 DOI: 10.1080/09535314.2020.1867078
Claudia Montanía, S. Dall’erba
Shift-share decomposition has been extensively used to identify the key drivers of sectoral and regional economic growth. Traditionally, shift-share does not pay attention to any form of interregional externalities and the rare exceptions define them based on geographical proximity only. However, given the increasing role of global value chains in economic growth, this paper introduces the Multi-dynamic interregional input-output shift-share decomposition in order to capture the dynamic intersectoral relationships between a spatial unit and any other unit it trades with. The methodology is illustrated on 35 productive sectors of 15 European Union countries over 1995–2006. The results show that the most important driver of output growth in these countries are their sectoral linkages with other European countries, followed by the domestic sectoral linkages.
转移份额分解已被广泛用于确定部门和区域经济增长的关键驱动因素。传统上,转移份额不注意任何形式的区域间外部性,少数例外仅根据地理邻近度来定义外部性。然而,考虑到全球价值链在经济增长中的作用越来越大,本文引入了多动态区域间投入产出转移份额分解,以捕捉空间单位与其交易的任何其他单位之间的动态部门间关系。该方法以1995-2006年间15个欧盟国家的35个生产部门为例进行了说明。结果表明,这些国家产出增长的最重要驱动力是其与其他欧洲国家的部门联系,其次是国内部门联系。
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引用次数: 3
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Economic Systems Research
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