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Preferences for Labor Regulation: Endowments vs. Beliefs 对劳动法规的偏好:禀赋与信念
IF 2.5 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-07 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiae021
Romain Duval, Yi Ji, Chris Papageorgiou, Ippei Shibata, Antonio Spilimbergo
Are preferences for labor regulations driven by individuals’ own endowments or their beliefs? To address this question, we conducted a cross-country survey on people’s opinions on employment protection legislation—an area where reform has proven to be difficult and personal interests are at stake. We find that individuals’ beliefs contribute two to three times more than their own endowments and personal pay-offs. A randomized information treatment confirms that beliefs can explain views about regulations, but beliefs can also change with new information. Our results are robust to several checks, including to alternative estimation techniques and samples.
对劳动法规的偏好是受个人自身禀赋还是信仰的驱动?为了解决这个问题,我们就人们对就业保护立法的看法进行了一项跨国调查--在这个领域,改革已被证明是困难的,个人利益也受到了威胁。我们发现,个人信念的作用是其自身禀赋和个人回报的两到三倍。随机信息处理证实,信念可以解释对法规的看法,但信念也会随着新信息的出现而改变。我们的结果经多次检验,包括其他估算技术和样本的检验,都是稳健的。
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引用次数: 0
The many channels of firm’s adjustment to energy shocks: Evidence from France 企业适应能源冲击的多种渠道:来自法国的证据
IF 2.5 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-02-04 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiae011
Lionel Fontagne, Philippe Martin, Gianluca Orefice
Based on firm level data in the French manufacturing sector, we find that firms adapt quickly, strongly and through multiple channels to energy shocks, even though electricity and gas bills represent a small share of their total costs. Over the period 1996-2019, faced with an idiosyncratic energy price increase, firms reduce their energy demand, improve their energy efficiency, increase intermediate inputs imports and optimize energy use across plants. Firms are also able to pass-through the cost shock fully into their export prices. Their production, exports and employment fall. A consequence of these multiple adjustment mechanisms is that the fall in profits is either non-significant, small or specific to only the most energy intensive firms. We also find that the impact of electricity shocks has weakened over time, suggesting that only firms able to adapt their production process to energy cost shocks have survived. Importantly, when faced with large electricity and gas price increases, firms are less able to reduce their consumption. These results shed light on the mechanisms of resilience of the European manufacturing sector in the context of the present energy crisis.
基于法国制造业的企业级数据,我们发现,尽管电费和天然气费只占企业总成本的一小部分,但企业会通过多种渠道快速、强烈地适应能源冲击。在 1996-2019 年期间,面对能源价格的特异性上涨,企业会减少能源需求、提高能源效率、增加中间投入进口并优化各工厂的能源使用。企业还能将成本冲击完全转嫁到出口价格中。它们的生产、出口和就业都会下降。这些多重调整机制的一个后果是,利润的下降要么不显著,要么很小,要么只针对能源最密集的企业。我们还发现,随着时间的推移,电力冲击的影响有所减弱,这表明只有能够调整生产流程以适应能源成本冲击的企业才能存活下来。重要的是,当面临电力和天然气价格大幅上涨时,企业降低消耗的能力较弱。这些结果阐明了欧洲制造业在当前能源危机背景下的复原机制。
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引用次数: 0
Building Bridges to Peace: A Quantitative Evaluation of Power-Sharing Agreements 架起通往和平的桥梁:权力分享协议的定量评估
IF 2.5 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-01-24 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiae010
Hannes Mueller, Christopher Rauh
Power-sharing agreements are used as a tool to reduce political violence in regions of conflict, but agreements are often followed by violence. This is due to the fact that such agreements are introduced during periods of political violence when a country is inside the conflict trap, which makes it difficult to distinguish the effect of the agreement from the political context that generates persistent political violence. In this study we match on pre-agreement conflict risk to estimate the effects of power-sharing agreements on violence using a difference-in-difference method. The results show that violence falls immediately after an agreement, with the effects strengthening over time. Comprehensive agreements tend to be particularly successful. We show that broader institutional changes that have their nucleus in the agreements are crucial elements explaining these large changes.
在冲突地区,权力分享协议被用作减少政治暴力的工具,但协议之后往往会出现暴力。这是由于此类协议是在政治暴力时期引入的,当时一个国家正处于冲突陷阱之中,这就很难将协议的效果与产生持续政治暴力的政治环境区分开来。在本研究中,我们采用差分法匹配协议前的冲突风险来估计权力分享协议对暴力的影响。结果表明,协议签订后暴力事件立即减少,而且随着时间的推移,效果会逐渐增强。全面协议往往特别成功。我们表明,以协议为核心的更广泛的制度变革是解释这些巨大变化的关键因素。
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引用次数: 0
On the design of effective sanctions: the case of bans on exports to russia* 关于有效制裁的设计:禁止向俄罗斯出口的案例*
IF 2.5 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-01-22 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiad043
Ricardo Hausmann, Ulrich Schetter, Muhammed A Yıldırım
We build on Baqaee and Farhi (2019, 2021) and derive a theoretically-grounded criterion that allows targeting bans on exports to a sanctioned country at the level of ∼5000 6-digit HS products. The criterion implies that the costs to the sanctioned country are highly convex in the market share of the sanctioning parties. Hence, there are large benefits from coordinating export bans among a broad coalition of countries. Applying our results to Russia reveals that sanctions imposed by the EU and the US in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are not systematically related to our arguments once we condition on Russia’s total imports of a product from participating countries. We discuss drivers of these differences, and then provide a quantitative evaluation of the export bans to show that (i) they are very effective with the welfare loss typically ∼100 times larger for Russia than for the sanctioners; (ii) improved coordination of the sanctions and targeting sanctions based on our criterion allows to increase the costs to Russia by about 80% with little to no extra cost to the sanctioners; and (iii) there is scope for increasing the cost to Russia further by expanding the set of sanctioned products.
我们在 Baqaee 和 Farhi(2019,2021)的基础上,推导出一个有理论依据的标准,允许在 6 位数 HS 产品 ∼5000 的水平上有针对性地禁止向受制裁国家出口。该标准意味着受制裁国的成本与制裁方的市场份额呈高度凸性关系。因此,在广泛的国家联盟中协调出口禁令会带来巨大收益。将我们的结果应用于俄罗斯时发现,一旦我们以俄罗斯从参与国的产品进口总量为条件,欧盟和美国针对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰所实施的制裁与我们的论点并无系统性关联。我们讨论了造成这些差异的原因,然后对出口禁令进行了定量评估,结果表明:(i) 出口禁令非常有效,俄罗斯的福利损失通常是制裁国的 100 倍;(ii) 根据我们的标准改进制裁的协调和定向制裁,可以使俄罗斯的成本增加约 80%,而制裁国几乎没有额外成本;(iii) 通过扩大受制裁产品的范围,俄罗斯的成本还有进一步增加的空间。
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引用次数: 0
Bank lending policies and monetary policy: Some lessons from the negative interest era 银行贷款政策和货币政策:负利率时代的一些经验教训
IF 2.5 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-01-11 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiae001
Oscar Arce, Miguel García-Posada, Sergio Mayordomo, Banco de España, Steven Ongena
What is the long-term impact of negative interest rates on bank lending? To answer this question, we construct a unique summary measure of negative rate exposure by individual banks based on exclusive survey data and banks’ balance sheets and couple it with the credit register of Spain and firms’ balance sheets to identify this impact on the supply of credit to firms. We find that only when deposit rates reached the zero lower bound (ZLB) did affected banks (relative to non-affected banks) decrease their supply, especially when undercapitalized and lending to risky firms. The adverse effects of the negative rates on banks’ intermediation capacity only took place after a protracted period of time.
负利率对银行贷款的长期影响是什么?为了回答这个问题,我们基于独家调查数据和银行资产负债表,构建了一个独特的衡量单个银行负利率风险的汇总指标,并将其与西班牙信贷登记和企业资产负债表相结合,以确定负利率对企业信贷供应的影响。我们发现,只有当存款利率达到零下限(ZLB)时,受影响的银行(相对于未受影响的银行)才会减少信贷供应,尤其是在资本不足和贷款给高风险企业的情况下。负利率对银行中介能力的不利影响只有在经过一段较长的时间后才会出现。
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引用次数: 0
Sanctions and the Exchange Rate in Time 制裁与汇率时间
IF 2.5 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-12-12 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiad034
Barry Eichengreen, Massimo Ferrari Minesso, Arnaud Mehl, Isabel Vansteenkiste, Roger Vicquéry
We test the predictions of recent theoretical studies of the impact of sanctions on the exchange rate. We build a database of exchange rates and sanctions spanning 1914-1945—an era when both large and small economies were targeted by multilateral sanction packages, facilitating comparisons with today’s Russian war episode. We estimate the dynamic response of the exchange rate in a panel of sanction episodes at weekly frequency using local projections, conditioning on the type of sanctions taken. We tease out mechanisms through which sanctions affect the exchange rate by estimating their effects on macroeconomic variables plausibly acting as transmission channels. Our estimates suggest that import restrictions, export restrictions, asset freezes and trade embargoes lead to exchange rate effects consistent with theory, though the precision of the measured effects varies across sanction type. These findings suggest that recent models of the effects of sanctions on the exchange rate do not just match developments in today’s specific Russia episode but have broader applicability. It follows that the direction of exchange rate movements is not an adequate metric of the success or failure of sanctions but a reflection of the type and scale of the measures taken.
我们检验了近期关于制裁对汇率影响的理论研究的预测。我们建立了一个汇率和制裁数据库,时间跨度为 1914-1945 年--在这一时期,大型和小型经济体都是多边制裁的目标,便于与今天的俄罗斯战争事件进行比较。我们利用本地预测,以采取的制裁类型为条件,按周频率估算了制裁事件面板中汇率的动态响应。我们通过估算制裁对宏观经济变量的影响,找出制裁影响汇率的机制,这些宏观经济变量可能是制裁的传导渠道。我们的估算结果表明,进口限制、出口限制、资产冻结和贸易禁运会导致汇率效应,这与理论是一致的,尽管不同制裁类型的测算效应的精确度有所不同。这些研究结果表明,近期关于制裁对汇率影响的模型并不仅仅符合当今俄罗斯的具体情况,而是具有更广泛的适用性。由此可见,汇率变动的方向并不能充分衡量制裁的成败,而只能反映所采取措施的类型和规模。
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引用次数: 0
Private Sanctions 私人制裁
IF 2.5 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-12-09 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiad041
Oliver Hart, David Thesmar, Luigi Zingales
We survey a representative sample of the U.S. population to understand stakeholders’ desire to see their firms leave Russia after the invasion of Ukraine. Only 37% of the respondents think that leaving Russia is a pure business decision, and only 30% think that sanctions are a pure matter for the government. If a firm does not conform to the desire to leave Russia, 66% of the respondents are willing to boycott it (exit). We randomize a (hypothetical) cost of exiting the firm. This cost has a strong effect on the stated propensity to exit. This sensitivity allows us to provide a natural $equivalent of moral motivations for exiting. We try to distinguish deontological and impact-related motives to exit, by randomizing beliefs about the impact on the firm. We find a clear effect of impact for shareholders, but not for consumers and employees. Our results continue to hold on the subsample of participants who actually donate part of their survey compensation to Ukraine. In our survey, consumers emerge as the most powerful force to control the morality of firms. We discuss the geopolitical and economic implications of a world where private corporations can discontinue profitable business relationships for moral or political reasons.
我们对美国人口中的代表性样本进行了调查,以了解利益相关者在乌克兰入侵后希望其公司离开俄罗斯的愿望。只有 37% 的受访者认为离开俄罗斯纯属商业决定,只有 30% 的受访者认为制裁纯属政府事务。如果一家企业不符合离开俄罗斯的愿望,66% 的受访者愿意抵制它(退出)。我们随机设定了退出企业的(假设)成本。该成本对声明的退出倾向有很大影响。这种敏感性使我们能够提供退出的道德动机的自然等价物。我们试图通过随机化关于对公司影响的信念,来区分道义上的退出动机和与影响相关的退出动机。我们发现影响对股东有明显的影响,但对消费者和员工没有影响。我们的结果在将部分调查报酬捐赠给乌克兰的参与者子样本中依然成立。在我们的调查中,消费者成为控制企业道德的最强大力量。我们讨论了一个私营企业可以出于道德或政治原因中止有利可图的商业关系的世界所带来的地缘政治和经济影响。
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引用次数: 0
Natural Unemployment and Activity Rates in Italy: Flow-based Determinants and Implications for Price Dynamics 意大利的自然失业率和经济活动率:基于流量的决定因素及其对价格动态的影响
IF 2.5 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-25 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiad032
Francesco D’Amuri, Marta De Philippis, Elisa Guglielminetti, Salvatore Lo Bello
Despite the magnitude and cyclicality of transitions into and out of the labor force, the literature generally considers unemployment as a sufficient statistic of labor market slack. We question this view by jointly estimating natural unemployment and participation rates through a Phillips curve informed by structural labor market flows. Focusing on Italy, a country where flows into and out of the labor force are particularly large, we find that the participation margin accounts for a significant share of total slack and explains one third of the missing inflation that followed the 2011 Sovereign Debt Crisis. Exploiting a reform that sharply and unexpectedly increased the statutory retirement age and expanded labor supply without directly affecting unemployment, we confirm that neglecting the participation gap biases inflation forecasts.
尽管进入和退出劳动力的转变幅度很大,而且具有周期性,但文献通常认为失业是劳动力市场松弛的充分统计数据。我们对这一观点提出了质疑,通过结构性劳动力市场流动的菲利普斯曲线共同估计自然失业率和参与率。以意大利为例,我们发现劳动力流入和流出特别大的国家,参与边际占了总闲置的很大一部分,并解释了2011年主权债务危机后三分之一的通胀缺失。利用一项在不直接影响失业率的情况下大幅提高法定退休年龄和扩大劳动力供应的改革,我们证实忽视参与率差距会影响通胀预测。
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引用次数: 0
Low price-to-book ratios and bank dividend payouts: economic policy implications 低市净率和银行派息:经济政策影响
IF 2.5 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-21 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiad028
Leonardo Gambacorta, Tommaso Oliviero, Hyun Song Shin
Banks with a low price-to-book ratio have a greater propensity to pay out dividends. This propensity is especially marked for banks with a price-to-book ratio below a threshold of 0.7, a situation that characterises many banks in recent years, especially in the euro area. We demonstrate these features using data for 271 advanced economy banks in 29 jurisdictions. Dividend payouts as a proportion of profits rise in a non-linear way as the price-to-book ratio falls below 0.7. In a hypothetical exercise with fixed balance sheet ratios, we find that a suspension of bank dividends in 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic would have added, under different stress scenarios and parametrisations, an additional US$0.2–1.1 trillion of bank lending capacity in our sample, equivalent to 0.3–1.6% of total GDP.
市净率较低的银行更倾向于派发股息。这种倾向在市净率低于0.7的银行中尤为明显,这是近年来许多银行的特点,尤其是在欧元区。我们使用29个司法管辖区271家发达经济体银行的数据来证明这些特征。当市净率降至0.7以下时,股息支出占利润的比例呈非线性上升。在固定资产负债表比率的假设中,我们发现,在不同的压力情景和参数化下,在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间,2020年暂停银行股息将使我们样本中的银行贷款能力增加0.2-1.1万亿美元,相当于GDP总量的0.3-1.6%。
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引用次数: 0
Power Mismatch and Civil Conflict: An Empirical Investigation 权力错配与国内冲突:一个实证研究
IF 2.5 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-11-15 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiad030
Massimo Morelli, Laura Ogliari, Long Hong
This paper empirically shows that the imbalance between an ethnic group’s political and military power is crucial to understanding the likelihood that such a group engages in a conflict. We develop a novel measure of a group’s military power by combining machine learning techniques with rich data on ethnic group characteristics and outcomes of civil conflicts in Africa and the Middle East. We couple this measure with available indicators of an ethnic group’s political power as well as with a novel proxy based on information about the ethnicity of cabinet members. We find that groups characterized by a higher mismatch between military and political power are between 30% and 50% more likely to engage in a conflict against their government depending on the specification used. We also find that the effects of power mismatch are nonlinear, which is in agreement with the predictions of a simple model that accounts for the cost of conflict. Moreover, our results suggest that high-mismatched groups are typically involved in larger and centrist conflicts. The policy implication is that power-sharing recommendations and institutional design policies for peace should consider primarily the reduction of power mismatches between relevant groups, rather than focusing exclusively on equalizing political power in isolation.
本文的实证表明,一个族群的政治和军事力量之间的不平衡对于理解这个族群参与冲突的可能性至关重要。我们通过将机器学习技术与有关非洲和中东种族群体特征和内部冲突结果的丰富数据相结合,开发了一种衡量群体军事力量的新方法。我们将这一衡量标准与一个族裔群体政治权力的现有指标以及一个基于内阁成员族裔信息的新代理相结合。我们发现,根据所使用的规范,军事和政治权力之间高度不匹配的群体更有可能与政府发生冲突,其可能性在30%到50%之间。我们还发现,功率不匹配的影响是非线性的,这与考虑冲突成本的简单模型的预测一致。此外,我们的研究结果表明,高度不匹配的群体通常会卷入更大的中间冲突。其政策含义是,权力分享建议和和平体制设计政策应主要考虑减少相关群体之间的权力不匹配,而不是只注重孤立地平衡政治权力。
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引用次数: 0
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Economic Policy
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