Matias Berthelon, Diana Kruger, Catalina Lauer, Luca Tiberti, Carlos Zamora
Better employment quality can improve personal well-being, social cohesion, and inclusive growth and development. Yet good quality jobs—associated with greater well-being—are less accessible to women than men. While it is understood that policies balancing family and work lead to greater female labor participation, this paper investigates whether one such policy—increased childcare—improves the quality of jobs where mothers are employed. The context we analyze is a nationwide school reform in Chile that extended school schedules for primary school-aged children, providing childcare services. We combine administrative data of the phase-in of the policy with panel data of individual mothers’ employment outcomes and socio-economic characteristics. We estimate a fixed-effects model that controls for mothers’ unobserved heterogeneity and identifies the effect of the policy from plausibly exogenous temporal and spatial variations in access to schools with long schedules and exogenous exposure to the policy. We find a positive effect of childcare on several measures of employment quality and gender gaps within the couple. Our evidence suggests that the mechanism driving the impact is the implicit subsidy to the cost of childcare, affecting the opportunity cost of mothers’ time. In addition, we find heterogeneous results by mothers’ education level. Access to childcare through longer primary school schedules can increase household welfare and can play a role in reducing income and gender inequalities.
{"title":"Longer School Schedules, Childcare and the Quality of Mothers’ Employment","authors":"Matias Berthelon, Diana Kruger, Catalina Lauer, Luca Tiberti, Carlos Zamora","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiae037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiae037","url":null,"abstract":"Better employment quality can improve personal well-being, social cohesion, and inclusive growth and development. Yet good quality jobs—associated with greater well-being—are less accessible to women than men. While it is understood that policies balancing family and work lead to greater female labor participation, this paper investigates whether one such policy—increased childcare—improves the quality of jobs where mothers are employed. The context we analyze is a nationwide school reform in Chile that extended school schedules for primary school-aged children, providing childcare services. We combine administrative data of the phase-in of the policy with panel data of individual mothers’ employment outcomes and socio-economic characteristics. We estimate a fixed-effects model that controls for mothers’ unobserved heterogeneity and identifies the effect of the policy from plausibly exogenous temporal and spatial variations in access to schools with long schedules and exogenous exposure to the policy. We find a positive effect of childcare on several measures of employment quality and gender gaps within the couple. Our evidence suggests that the mechanism driving the impact is the implicit subsidy to the cost of childcare, affecting the opportunity cost of mothers’ time. In addition, we find heterogeneous results by mothers’ education level. Access to childcare through longer primary school schedules can increase household welfare and can play a role in reducing income and gender inequalities.","PeriodicalId":47772,"journal":{"name":"Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-07-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141568369","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Natalia Danzer, Sebastian Garcia-Torres, Max Steinhardt, Luca Stella
This study explores the relationship between women’s representation in political power and school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a cross-country dataset in Europe, we document a striking negative relationship between the share of female members in national governments and school closures. We show that a one standard deviation increase in female members of national governments is associated with a significant reduction in the likelihood of school lockdowns by 24% relative to the average share of school closures. This result is robust to an extensive set of sensitivity checks. We attribute this pattern to a higher awareness of female politicians about the potential costs that school closures imply for families, in particular working mothers with young children.
{"title":"Women in Political Power and School Closure During Covid Times","authors":"Natalia Danzer, Sebastian Garcia-Torres, Max Steinhardt, Luca Stella","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiae033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiae033","url":null,"abstract":"This study explores the relationship between women’s representation in political power and school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using a cross-country dataset in Europe, we document a striking negative relationship between the share of female members in national governments and school closures. We show that a one standard deviation increase in female members of national governments is associated with a significant reduction in the likelihood of school lockdowns by 24% relative to the average share of school closures. This result is robust to an extensive set of sensitivity checks. We attribute this pattern to a higher awareness of female politicians about the potential costs that school closures imply for families, in particular working mothers with young children.","PeriodicalId":47772,"journal":{"name":"Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141501473","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A large share of the gender wage gap can be attributed to occupation and employer choices. If workers are not well informed about these pay differences, increasing wage transparency might alleviate the gender gap. We test this hypothesis by examining the impact of mandatory wage postings. In 2011, Austria introduced a policy that requires firms to provide a minimum wage offer in job postings. To compare the pay prospects of vacancies before and after the introduction, we predict posted wages using detailed occupation-firm cells, which explain about 75 percent of the variation in wage postings. While we estimate a substantial gender gap of 15 log points, mandatory wage postings do not affect gender sorting into better-paying occupations and firms.
{"title":"Can Wage Transparency Alleviate Gender Sorting in the Labor Market?","authors":"Omar Bamieh, Lennart Ziegler","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiae025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiae025","url":null,"abstract":"A large share of the gender wage gap can be attributed to occupation and employer choices. If workers are not well informed about these pay differences, increasing wage transparency might alleviate the gender gap. We test this hypothesis by examining the impact of mandatory wage postings. In 2011, Austria introduced a policy that requires firms to provide a minimum wage offer in job postings. To compare the pay prospects of vacancies before and after the introduction, we predict posted wages using detailed occupation-firm cells, which explain about 75 percent of the variation in wage postings. While we estimate a substantial gender gap of 15 log points, mandatory wage postings do not affect gender sorting into better-paying occupations and firms.","PeriodicalId":47772,"journal":{"name":"Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140798823","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Using UK data, we present greater empirical detail on the puzzling firm dynamics that emerged during COVID-19. We show that firm entry increased during the pandemic across several countries, and this contrasts with typical recessions where firm entry declines. Additionally, the rise in firm entry is driven by individual entrepreneurs creating companies for the first time, particularly in online retail. We find evidence that firm creation responded significantly to declines in retail footfall, and that firms created during the pandemic are more likely to exit and less likely to post jobs. Overall this implies that, despite surging firm creation during the pandemic, the overall employment effect is limited. Finally, we find that the primary contributor to limited employment creation is the shift in ownership composition of new entrants during COVID.
{"title":"Business creation during COVID-19","authors":"Saleem Bahaj, Sophie Piton, Anthony Savagar","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiae008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiae008","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Using UK data, we present greater empirical detail on the puzzling firm dynamics that emerged during COVID-19. We show that firm entry increased during the pandemic across several countries, and this contrasts with typical recessions where firm entry declines. Additionally, the rise in firm entry is driven by individual entrepreneurs creating companies for the first time, particularly in online retail. We find evidence that firm creation responded significantly to declines in retail footfall, and that firms created during the pandemic are more likely to exit and less likely to post jobs. Overall this implies that, despite surging firm creation during the pandemic, the overall employment effect is limited. Finally, we find that the primary contributor to limited employment creation is the shift in ownership composition of new entrants during COVID.","PeriodicalId":47772,"journal":{"name":"Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140381209","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
China’s outsized growth has almost continually surpassed outsiders’ expectations for four decades and may continue to do so in the future. However, a key element of the growth model, heavy reliance on real estate and infrastructure construction, may finally be running into diminishing returns. This paper summarizes new city-level data on China’s real estate and infrastructure capital from 2000-2022 and provides evidence suggesting that the growth returns to new building may be falling in some regions. At the same time, real estate investment in particular has been a significant contributing factor to the local government debt vulnerabilities. Finally, the paper presents new findings on the combined direct and indirect impact of real estate and infrastructure construction on China’s economy, which has consistently exceeded 30 percent of GDP in recent years.
四十年来，中国的超常规增长几乎一直超出外界的预期，未来也可能继续如此。然而，这种增长模式的一个关键要素，即对房地产和基础设施建设的严重依赖，可能最终会面临收益递减的问题。本文总结了 2000-2022 年中国房地产和基础设施资本的新城市级数据，并提供证据表明，在一些地区，新建建筑的增长回报可能正在下降。同时，房地产投资尤其是地方政府债务脆弱性的一个重要促成因素。最后，本文就房地产和基础设施建设对中国经济的直接和间接综合影响提出了新的研究结果，近年来，房地产和基础设施建设对中国经济的影响一直超过 GDP 的 30%。
{"title":"Rethinking china’s growth","authors":"Kenneth Rogoff, Yuanchen Yang","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiae022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiae022","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 China’s outsized growth has almost continually surpassed outsiders’ expectations for four decades and may continue to do so in the future. However, a key element of the growth model, heavy reliance on real estate and infrastructure construction, may finally be running into diminishing returns. This paper summarizes new city-level data on China’s real estate and infrastructure capital from 2000-2022 and provides evidence suggesting that the growth returns to new building may be falling in some regions. At the same time, real estate investment in particular has been a significant contributing factor to the local government debt vulnerabilities. Finally, the paper presents new findings on the combined direct and indirect impact of real estate and infrastructure construction on China’s economy, which has consistently exceeded 30 percent of GDP in recent years.","PeriodicalId":47772,"journal":{"name":"Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140226601","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Francesco Amodio, Leonardo Baccini, Giorgio Chiovelli, Michele Di Maio
This paper investigates the impact of agricultural trade liberalization on economic activity and political violence in emerging countries. We use data on all Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) signed between 25 low- and middle-income countries and their high-income trade partners between 1995 and 2013. We exploit the implied reduction in agricultural tariffs over time combined with variation within countries in their suitability to produce liberalized crops to find that economic activity increases differentially in affected areas. We also find strong positive effects on political violence, and present evidence consistent with both producer- and consumer-side mechanisms: violence increases differentially in more urbanized areas that are suitable to produce less labor-intensive crops as well as crops that are consumed locally. Our estimates imply that economic activity and political violence would have been around 2% and 7% lower, respectively, across countries in our sample had the PTAs not been signed.
{"title":"Trade Liberalization, Economic Activity, and Political Violence in the Global South: Evidence from PTAs","authors":"Francesco Amodio, Leonardo Baccini, Giorgio Chiovelli, Michele Di Maio","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiae024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiae024","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the impact of agricultural trade liberalization on economic activity and political violence in emerging countries. We use data on all Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) signed between 25 low- and middle-income countries and their high-income trade partners between 1995 and 2013. We exploit the implied reduction in agricultural tariffs over time combined with variation within countries in their suitability to produce liberalized crops to find that economic activity increases differentially in affected areas. We also find strong positive effects on political violence, and present evidence consistent with both producer- and consumer-side mechanisms: violence increases differentially in more urbanized areas that are suitable to produce less labor-intensive crops as well as crops that are consumed locally. Our estimates imply that economic activity and political violence would have been around 2% and 7% lower, respectively, across countries in our sample had the PTAs not been signed.","PeriodicalId":47772,"journal":{"name":"Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140197946","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Eduard Suari-Andreu, Rob J M Alessie, Viola Angelini, Raun van Ooijen
In this study we examine the importance of estate planning and inter-vivos transfers towards the end of life. To that end, we use administrative data on all deaths taking place in the Netherlands between 2006 and 2013. We link these to wealth and income tax records and the hospital discharge register. Employing these unique data we distinguish between sudden and non-sudden deaths and study how they compare in terms of wealth at death. Our results show that non-sudden deaths are associated with significantly less financial wealth at the time of death. We interpret this difference as the result of inter-vivos transfers that result from estate planning towards the end of life. We find significant effects not only at the top of the wealth distribution but along the entire upper half of the distribution. Diseases with a relatively low survival rate that do not affect cognitive abilities appear as the most likely to trigger estate planning. These results have important implication for gift and inheritance tax schedules that allow for tax avoidance via exemptions and the progressivity of the tax rate.
{"title":"Giving with a warm hand: Evidence on estate planning and Inter-Vivos transfers","authors":"Eduard Suari-Andreu, Rob J M Alessie, Viola Angelini, Raun van Ooijen","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiae023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiae023","url":null,"abstract":"In this study we examine the importance of estate planning and inter-vivos transfers towards the end of life. To that end, we use administrative data on all deaths taking place in the Netherlands between 2006 and 2013. We link these to wealth and income tax records and the hospital discharge register. Employing these unique data we distinguish between sudden and non-sudden deaths and study how they compare in terms of wealth at death. Our results show that non-sudden deaths are associated with significantly less financial wealth at the time of death. We interpret this difference as the result of inter-vivos transfers that result from estate planning towards the end of life. We find significant effects not only at the top of the wealth distribution but along the entire upper half of the distribution. Diseases with a relatively low survival rate that do not affect cognitive abilities appear as the most likely to trigger estate planning. These results have important implication for gift and inheritance tax schedules that allow for tax avoidance via exemptions and the progressivity of the tax rate.","PeriodicalId":47772,"journal":{"name":"Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140153845","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Romain Duval, Yi Ji, Chris Papageorgiou, Ippei Shibata, Antonio Spilimbergo
Are preferences for labor regulations driven by individuals’ own endowments or their beliefs? To address this question, we conducted a cross-country survey on people’s opinions on employment protection legislation—an area where reform has proven to be difficult and personal interests are at stake. We find that individuals’ beliefs contribute two to three times more than their own endowments and personal pay-offs. A randomized information treatment confirms that beliefs can explain views about regulations, but beliefs can also change with new information. Our results are robust to several checks, including to alternative estimation techniques and samples.
{"title":"Preferences for Labor Regulation: Endowments vs. Beliefs","authors":"Romain Duval, Yi Ji, Chris Papageorgiou, Ippei Shibata, Antonio Spilimbergo","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiae021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiae021","url":null,"abstract":"Are preferences for labor regulations driven by individuals’ own endowments or their beliefs? To address this question, we conducted a cross-country survey on people’s opinions on employment protection legislation—an area where reform has proven to be difficult and personal interests are at stake. We find that individuals’ beliefs contribute two to three times more than their own endowments and personal pay-offs. A randomized information treatment confirms that beliefs can explain views about regulations, but beliefs can also change with new information. Our results are robust to several checks, including to alternative estimation techniques and samples.","PeriodicalId":47772,"journal":{"name":"Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140070793","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Lionel Fontagne, Philippe Martin, Gianluca Orefice
Based on firm level data in the French manufacturing sector, we find that firms adapt quickly, strongly and through multiple channels to energy shocks, even though electricity and gas bills represent a small share of their total costs. Over the period 1996-2019, faced with an idiosyncratic energy price increase, firms reduce their energy demand, improve their energy efficiency, increase intermediate inputs imports and optimize energy use across plants. Firms are also able to pass-through the cost shock fully into their export prices. Their production, exports and employment fall. A consequence of these multiple adjustment mechanisms is that the fall in profits is either non-significant, small or specific to only the most energy intensive firms. We also find that the impact of electricity shocks has weakened over time, suggesting that only firms able to adapt their production process to energy cost shocks have survived. Importantly, when faced with large electricity and gas price increases, firms are less able to reduce their consumption. These results shed light on the mechanisms of resilience of the European manufacturing sector in the context of the present energy crisis.
{"title":"The many channels of firm’s adjustment to energy shocks: Evidence from France","authors":"Lionel Fontagne, Philippe Martin, Gianluca Orefice","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiae011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiae011","url":null,"abstract":"Based on firm level data in the French manufacturing sector, we find that firms adapt quickly, strongly and through multiple channels to energy shocks, even though electricity and gas bills represent a small share of their total costs. Over the period 1996-2019, faced with an idiosyncratic energy price increase, firms reduce their energy demand, improve their energy efficiency, increase intermediate inputs imports and optimize energy use across plants. Firms are also able to pass-through the cost shock fully into their export prices. Their production, exports and employment fall. A consequence of these multiple adjustment mechanisms is that the fall in profits is either non-significant, small or specific to only the most energy intensive firms. We also find that the impact of electricity shocks has weakened over time, suggesting that only firms able to adapt their production process to energy cost shocks have survived. Importantly, when faced with large electricity and gas price increases, firms are less able to reduce their consumption. These results shed light on the mechanisms of resilience of the European manufacturing sector in the context of the present energy crisis.","PeriodicalId":47772,"journal":{"name":"Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-02-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139903506","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Power-sharing agreements are used as a tool to reduce political violence in regions of conflict, but agreements are often followed by violence. This is due to the fact that such agreements are introduced during periods of political violence when a country is inside the conflict trap, which makes it difficult to distinguish the effect of the agreement from the political context that generates persistent political violence. In this study we match on pre-agreement conflict risk to estimate the effects of power-sharing agreements on violence using a difference-in-difference method. The results show that violence falls immediately after an agreement, with the effects strengthening over time. Comprehensive agreements tend to be particularly successful. We show that broader institutional changes that have their nucleus in the agreements are crucial elements explaining these large changes.
{"title":"Building Bridges to Peace: A Quantitative Evaluation of Power-Sharing Agreements","authors":"Hannes Mueller, Christopher Rauh","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiae010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiae010","url":null,"abstract":"Power-sharing agreements are used as a tool to reduce political violence in regions of conflict, but agreements are often followed by violence. This is due to the fact that such agreements are introduced during periods of political violence when a country is inside the conflict trap, which makes it difficult to distinguish the effect of the agreement from the political context that generates persistent political violence. In this study we match on pre-agreement conflict risk to estimate the effects of power-sharing agreements on violence using a difference-in-difference method. The results show that violence falls immediately after an agreement, with the effects strengthening over time. Comprehensive agreements tend to be particularly successful. We show that broader institutional changes that have their nucleus in the agreements are crucial elements explaining these large changes.","PeriodicalId":47772,"journal":{"name":"Economic Policy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2024-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139586903","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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