Abstract A central bank that faces inflation above target may fail to bring it down. This article discusses six ways in which this happens because the central bank is dominated by: misjudgment, expectations, fiscal policy, financial markets, recession fears, or external forces. It applies this approach to the challenge facing the ECB in 2023-24. The hope is that the factors identified can serve as warning signs for what to avoid.
{"title":"What can keep euro area inflation high?","authors":"Ricardo Reis","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiad029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiad029","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract A central bank that faces inflation above target may fail to bring it down. This article discusses six ways in which this happens because the central bank is dominated by: misjudgment, expectations, fiscal policy, financial markets, recession fears, or external forces. It applies this approach to the challenge facing the ECB in 2023-24. The hope is that the factors identified can serve as warning signs for what to avoid.","PeriodicalId":47772,"journal":{"name":"Economic Policy","volume":"109 4","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134957051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract We propose a data-based approximation of the effects of trade sanctions that can readily be computed on the basis of international input-output data. Approximated effects are very close to the exact responses obtained from a canonical multi-country multi-sector model, without having to make difficult calibration choices. We illustrate the approximation with trade sanctions against Russia and obtain estimates well within the existing range. Russia is much more affected by trade sanctions than the EU, even though the importance of EU markets for Russia has been falling, especially since 2014 with China picking up the slack. Within the EU the consequences are largest in ex-“satellite” countries of the Soviet Union: These countries do not typically have access to substitute markets and in fact have historically been highly dependent on Russia. This extreme and persistent dependence is at least partly explained by the existence of specific energy transporting infrastructure (pipelines) that appears to constrain tightly the production of electricity. Our proposed approximation is practical and can be implemented in a variety of contexts: We have developed a web-based dashboard, accessible at exposure.trade that can be used to approximate the costs of trade sanctions for any combinations of sanctioning and sanctioned countries or sectors.
{"title":"An Empirical Approximation of the Effects of Trade Sanctions with an Application to Russia","authors":"Jean Imbs, Laurent Pauwels","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiad027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiad027","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We propose a data-based approximation of the effects of trade sanctions that can readily be computed on the basis of international input-output data. Approximated effects are very close to the exact responses obtained from a canonical multi-country multi-sector model, without having to make difficult calibration choices. We illustrate the approximation with trade sanctions against Russia and obtain estimates well within the existing range. Russia is much more affected by trade sanctions than the EU, even though the importance of EU markets for Russia has been falling, especially since 2014 with China picking up the slack. Within the EU the consequences are largest in ex-“satellite” countries of the Soviet Union: These countries do not typically have access to substitute markets and in fact have historically been highly dependent on Russia. This extreme and persistent dependence is at least partly explained by the existence of specific energy transporting infrastructure (pipelines) that appears to constrain tightly the production of electricity. Our proposed approximation is practical and can be implemented in a variety of contexts: We have developed a web-based dashboard, accessible at exposure.trade that can be used to approximate the costs of trade sanctions for any combinations of sanctioning and sanctioned countries or sectors.","PeriodicalId":47772,"journal":{"name":"Economic Policy","volume":" 41","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135291796","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract If school closures and social-distancing experiences during the Covid-19 pandemic impeded children’s skill development, they may leave a lasting legacy in human capital. Our parental survey during the second German school lockdown provides new measures of socio-emotional development and panel evidence on how students’ time use and educational inputs adapted over time. Children’s learning time decreased severely during the first school closures, particularly for low-achieving students, and increased only slightly 1 year later. In a value-added model, learning time increases with daily online class instruction, but not with other school activities. Parental assessments of children’s socio-emotional development are mixed. Discussing our findings in light of the emerging literature on substantial achievement losses, we conclude that unless remediated, the school closures will persistently increase inequality and reduce skill development, lifetime income and economic growth.
{"title":"The legacy of Covid-19 in education","authors":"Katharina Werner, Ludger Woessmann","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiad016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiad016","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract If school closures and social-distancing experiences during the Covid-19 pandemic impeded children’s skill development, they may leave a lasting legacy in human capital. Our parental survey during the second German school lockdown provides new measures of socio-emotional development and panel evidence on how students’ time use and educational inputs adapted over time. Children’s learning time decreased severely during the first school closures, particularly for low-achieving students, and increased only slightly 1 year later. In a value-added model, learning time increases with daily online class instruction, but not with other school activities. Parental assessments of children’s socio-emotional development are mixed. Discussing our findings in light of the emerging literature on substantial achievement losses, we conclude that unless remediated, the school closures will persistently increase inequality and reduce skill development, lifetime income and economic growth.","PeriodicalId":47772,"journal":{"name":"Economic Policy","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136364057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Refet S Gürkaynak, Burçin Kısacıkoğlu, Sang Seok Lee
SUMMARY For the academic audience, this paper presents the outcome of a well-identified, large change in the monetary policy rule from the lens of a standard New Keynesian model and asks whether the model properly captures the effects. For policymakers, it presents a cautionary tale of the dismal effects of ignoring basic macroeconomics. In doing so, it also clarifies how neo-Fisherian disinflation may work or fail, in theory and in practice. The Turkish monetary policy experiment of the past decade, stemming from a belief of the government that higher interest rates cause higher inflation, provides an unfortunately clean exogenous variance in the policy rule. The mandate to keep rates low, and the frequent policymaker turnover orchestrated by the government to enforce this, led to the Taylor principle not being satisfied and eventually a negative coefficient on inflation in the policy rule. In such an environment, was the exchange rate still a random walk? Was inflation anchored? Does the “standard model” suffice to explain the broad contours of macroeconomic outcomes in an emerging economy with large identifying variance in the policy rule? There are no surprises for students of open-economy macroeconomics; the answers are no, no and yes.
{"title":"Exchange rate and inflation under weak monetary policy: Turkey verifies theory","authors":"Refet S Gürkaynak, Burçin Kısacıkoğlu, Sang Seok Lee","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiad020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiad020","url":null,"abstract":"SUMMARY For the academic audience, this paper presents the outcome of a well-identified, large change in the monetary policy rule from the lens of a standard New Keynesian model and asks whether the model properly captures the effects. For policymakers, it presents a cautionary tale of the dismal effects of ignoring basic macroeconomics. In doing so, it also clarifies how neo-Fisherian disinflation may work or fail, in theory and in practice. The Turkish monetary policy experiment of the past decade, stemming from a belief of the government that higher interest rates cause higher inflation, provides an unfortunately clean exogenous variance in the policy rule. The mandate to keep rates low, and the frequent policymaker turnover orchestrated by the government to enforce this, led to the Taylor principle not being satisfied and eventually a negative coefficient on inflation in the policy rule. In such an environment, was the exchange rate still a random walk? Was inflation anchored? Does the “standard model” suffice to explain the broad contours of macroeconomic outcomes in an emerging economy with large identifying variance in the policy rule? There are no surprises for students of open-economy macroeconomics; the answers are no, no and yes.","PeriodicalId":47772,"journal":{"name":"Economic Policy","volume":"76 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135902911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
SUMMARY We investigate in which countries fiscal externalities provide a justification for increasing subsidies to higher education. First, we show that the marginal fiscal recovery rate, i.e., the ratio of the change in total net fiscal revenues and the change in total subsidy costs caused by a small change in tuition subsidies, is the key statistic: if larger than a well-specified threshold value, then a small increase in subsidies is desirable from a welfare point of view. We also show that the marginal fiscal recovery rate depends on three statistics: the elasticity of participation with respect to subsidies, the success probability of the marginal student, and the ratio of the net fiscal revenue gain and the subsidy level of a degree in higher education. Second, we use this formula to approximate the marginal fiscal recovery rate in twenty OECD countries. The average marginal fiscal recovery rate is equal to 0.94, meaning that, on average, 0.94 euro is recovered of an increase in subsidies by one euro. This average hides substantial heterogeneity between countries. In six countries, the marginal fiscal recovery rate is larger than one, implying that an increase in subsidies to higher education is unambiguously desirable (i.e., a Pareto improvement) in these countries. In the other 14 countries, the marginal fiscal recovery rate is below one. Yet, if the degree of inequality aversion is not extreme, then increasing subsidies is also desirable in 12 additional countries. Third, to check the quality of our approximation of the marginal fiscal recovery rate, we simulate it for Belgium (region of Flanders) on the basis of a more detailed model. This simulation provides a somewhat lower, yet fairly similar result compared to the approximation.
{"title":"Should higher education be subsidized more?","authors":"Koen Declercq, Erwin Ooghe","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiad019","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiad019","url":null,"abstract":"SUMMARY We investigate in which countries fiscal externalities provide a justification for increasing subsidies to higher education. First, we show that the marginal fiscal recovery rate, i.e., the ratio of the change in total net fiscal revenues and the change in total subsidy costs caused by a small change in tuition subsidies, is the key statistic: if larger than a well-specified threshold value, then a small increase in subsidies is desirable from a welfare point of view. We also show that the marginal fiscal recovery rate depends on three statistics: the elasticity of participation with respect to subsidies, the success probability of the marginal student, and the ratio of the net fiscal revenue gain and the subsidy level of a degree in higher education. Second, we use this formula to approximate the marginal fiscal recovery rate in twenty OECD countries. The average marginal fiscal recovery rate is equal to 0.94, meaning that, on average, 0.94 euro is recovered of an increase in subsidies by one euro. This average hides substantial heterogeneity between countries. In six countries, the marginal fiscal recovery rate is larger than one, implying that an increase in subsidies to higher education is unambiguously desirable (i.e., a Pareto improvement) in these countries. In the other 14 countries, the marginal fiscal recovery rate is below one. Yet, if the degree of inequality aversion is not extreme, then increasing subsidies is also desirable in 12 additional countries. Third, to check the quality of our approximation of the marginal fiscal recovery rate, we simulate it for Belgium (region of Flanders) on the basis of a more detailed model. This simulation provides a somewhat lower, yet fairly similar result compared to the approximation.","PeriodicalId":47772,"journal":{"name":"Economic Policy","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135971866","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Patrick Leisibach, Simon Luechinger, Jonas Roellin, Christoph A Schaltegger
Abstract We investigate how revenues from taxing hydropower production affect local fiscal policy with data for municipalities in Switzerland in 1987–2015. Our instrumental variable approach uses exogenous variation in these revenues by combining the municipality-specific hydropower potential with the varying federally mandated ceiling on taxation of hydropower production. We find negative effects on tax rates and tax revenues, but insignificant spending effects. These results provide fresh evidence on how local authorities use exogenous revenues and on the flypaper effect for a setting with strong local fiscal autonomy and participatory institutions.
{"title":"The effects of natural resource revenues on municipal finance","authors":"Patrick Leisibach, Simon Luechinger, Jonas Roellin, Christoph A Schaltegger","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiad015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiad015","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We investigate how revenues from taxing hydropower production affect local fiscal policy with data for municipalities in Switzerland in 1987–2015. Our instrumental variable approach uses exogenous variation in these revenues by combining the municipality-specific hydropower potential with the varying federally mandated ceiling on taxation of hydropower production. We find negative effects on tax rates and tax revenues, but insignificant spending effects. These results provide fresh evidence on how local authorities use exogenous revenues and on the flypaper effect for a setting with strong local fiscal autonomy and participatory institutions.","PeriodicalId":47772,"journal":{"name":"Economic Policy","volume":"114 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135827225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Islamic veil is a subject of intense controversy in many Western countries. In particular, it remains an open question whether banning the veil in schools prevents female Muslim students from engaging in normal schooling, or whether it is a policy that promotes their integration. We shed light on this question by exploring the effects of the 1994 ministerial circular that required French schools to ban Islamic veils. We show that the ban coincided with a significant improvement in the educational attainment of female students of Muslim origin, as well as a rise in mixed marriages.
{"title":"Behind the Veil: the Effect of Banning the Islamic Veil in Schools","authors":"Éric Maurin, Nicolás Navarrete H","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiac069","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiac069","url":null,"abstract":"The Islamic veil is a subject of intense controversy in many Western countries. In particular, it remains an open question whether banning the veil in schools prevents female Muslim students from engaging in normal schooling, or whether it is a policy that promotes their integration. We shed light on this question by exploring the effects of the 1994 ministerial circular that required French schools to ban Islamic veils. We show that the ban coincided with a significant improvement in the educational attainment of female students of Muslim origin, as well as a rise in mixed marriages.","PeriodicalId":47772,"journal":{"name":"Economic Policy","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2022-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138541339","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We analyze the role of changes in the geographic concentration of immigrants in shaping teachers’ assessment of students’ performance. By using data on Italian students attending the 5th grade, we adopt an IV estimation strategy and, by controlling for student performance in blindly-scored tests of proficiency, find that an increasing presence of immigrants in the local population negatively affects the way teachers evaluate immigrant students, as opposed to their peers, in non-blindly-graded tests. We also reveal that the effect is mainly driven by schools located in smaller communities and in areas with lower overall levels of educational attainment and that it is unlikely to be related to the conduct of immigrant students who live in the areas experiencing sizable increases in immigration flows. In addition, older teachers tend to be more biased.
{"title":"Immigration and Teacher Bias towards Students with an Immigrant Background","authors":"Marco Alberto De Benedetto, Maria De Paola","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiac068","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiac068","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze the role of changes in the geographic concentration of immigrants in shaping teachers’ assessment of students’ performance. By using data on Italian students attending the 5th grade, we adopt an IV estimation strategy and, by controlling for student performance in blindly-scored tests of proficiency, find that an increasing presence of immigrants in the local population negatively affects the way teachers evaluate immigrant students, as opposed to their peers, in non-blindly-graded tests. We also reveal that the effect is mainly driven by schools located in smaller communities and in areas with lower overall levels of educational attainment and that it is unlikely to be related to the conduct of immigrant students who live in the areas experiencing sizable increases in immigration flows. In addition, older teachers tend to be more biased.","PeriodicalId":47772,"journal":{"name":"Economic Policy","volume":"11 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2022-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138541358","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Women are underrepresented in politics. In this paper, we test one of the potential explanations for this situation: gender biases from voters. We use a natural experiment during French local elections in 2015: for the first time in this country, candidates had to run in pairs, that had to be gender-balanced. We argue that this reform confused some voters, who might have assumed that the first name on the ballot represented the “main” candidate. Since the order of the candidates on the ballot was determined by their alphabetical order, the order of appearance of male and female candidates was as-good-as-random, and this setting allows us to isolate gender biases from selection effects. Our main result is that there exists a negative gender bias affecting right-wing candidates, whose vote shares were lower by 1.5 percentage points when the female candidate appeared first on the ballot. The missing votes prevented some pairs of candidates from proceeding to the second round of voting. Using data on newspaper circulation and additional institutional features of the election - namely the fact that candidates can (but do not have to) report additional information about themselves on the ballot - we show that higher levels of information decrease discrimination. We argue that the discrimination we identify is, therefore, likely to be statistical.
{"title":"Gender Biases: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in French Local Elections","authors":"Jean-Benoît Eyméoud, Paul Vertier","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiac067","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiac067","url":null,"abstract":"Women are underrepresented in politics. In this paper, we test one of the potential explanations for this situation: gender biases from voters. We use a natural experiment during French local elections in 2015: for the first time in this country, candidates had to run in pairs, that had to be gender-balanced. We argue that this reform confused some voters, who might have assumed that the first name on the ballot represented the “main” candidate. Since the order of the candidates on the ballot was determined by their alphabetical order, the order of appearance of male and female candidates was as-good-as-random, and this setting allows us to isolate gender biases from selection effects. Our main result is that there exists a negative gender bias affecting right-wing candidates, whose vote shares were lower by 1.5 percentage points when the female candidate appeared first on the ballot. The missing votes prevented some pairs of candidates from proceeding to the second round of voting. Using data on newspaper circulation and additional institutional features of the election - namely the fact that candidates can (but do not have to) report additional information about themselves on the ballot - we show that higher levels of information decrease discrimination. We argue that the discrimination we identify is, therefore, likely to be statistical.","PeriodicalId":47772,"journal":{"name":"Economic Policy","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2022-12-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138541362","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Almost all countries worldwide closed schools at the outbreak of the Covid-19 crisis. I document that schooling time dropped on average by -55% in the US and -45% in Germany from the onset of the crisis to the summer of 2021. In the US, schools were closed longer in richer than in poorer areas, while in Germany the regional variation is much smaller. However, Germany exhibited substantial variation by grade level, with a strong U-shaped patterns that implies that children attending middle school faced the longest closures. A structural model of human capital accumulation predicts that the US school closures on average lead to a reduction of life-time earnings of –1.8% for the affected children. While the overall losses are likely somewhat smaller in Germany, the socio-economic gradient in the losses could be larger than in the US, leading to increased inequality and decreased intergenerational mobility.
{"title":"Covid-Induced School Closures in the US and Germany: Long-Term Distributional Effects","authors":"Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln","doi":"10.1093/epolic/eiac052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiac052","url":null,"abstract":"Almost all countries worldwide closed schools at the outbreak of the Covid-19 crisis. I document that schooling time dropped on average by -55% in the US and -45% in Germany from the onset of the crisis to the summer of 2021. In the US, schools were closed longer in richer than in poorer areas, while in Germany the regional variation is much smaller. However, Germany exhibited substantial variation by grade level, with a strong U-shaped patterns that implies that children attending middle school faced the longest closures. A structural model of human capital accumulation predicts that the US school closures on average lead to a reduction of life-time earnings of –1.8% for the affected children. While the overall losses are likely somewhat smaller in Germany, the socio-economic gradient in the losses could be larger than in the US, leading to increased inequality and decreased intergenerational mobility.","PeriodicalId":47772,"journal":{"name":"Economic Policy","volume":"45 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.5,"publicationDate":"2022-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138541361","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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