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Corporate zombies: Anatomy and life cycle 僵尸企业:解剖和生命周期
IF 2.5 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-05-18 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiac027
Ryan Banerjee, Boris Hofmann
Using firm-level data on listed non-financial companies in 14 advanced economies, we document a rise in the share of zombie firms, defined as unprofitable firms with low stock market valuation, from 4% in the late 1980s to 15% in 2017. These zombie firms are smaller, less productive, more leveraged, invest less in physical and intangible capital and shrink their assets, debt and employment. Their performance deteriorates several years before zombification and remains significantly poorer than that of non-zombie firms in subsequent years. Over time, some 25% of zombie companies exited the market, while 60% exited from zombie status. However, recovered zombies underperform compared to firms that have never been zombies and they face a high probability of relapsing into zombie status.
利用14个发达经济体上市非金融公司的公司层面数据,我们发现僵尸公司的比例从20世纪80年代末的4%上升到2017年的15%。僵尸公司被定义为股票市场估值较低的无利可图公司。这些僵尸企业规模更小,生产率更低,杠杆率更高,对有形和无形资本的投资更少,资产、债务和就业都在缩水。它们的业绩在僵尸化前几年就会恶化,并且在随后的几年里仍明显逊于非僵尸企业。随着时间的推移,大约25%的僵尸公司退出了市场,而60%的僵尸公司退出了市场。然而,与那些从未成为僵尸的公司相比,恢复后的僵尸公司表现不佳,而且它们很有可能再次陷入僵尸状态。
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引用次数: 0
Lockdown and voting behaviour: a natural experiment on postponed elections during the COVID-19 pandemic 封锁与投票行为:2019冠状病毒病大流行期间推迟选举的自然实验
IF 2.5 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-03-16 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiac018
Tommaso Giommoni,Gabriel Loumeau
Abstract The goal of this paper is to study the electoral impact of crisis management policies. With this aim, we exploit a natural experiment during the COVID-19 pandemic in France to evaluate the effect of the lockdown on voting behaviour. In particular, the country has been divided in two areas, red and green, subject to a ‘hard’ and a ‘soft’ lockdown, respectively. To measure voting behaviour, before and after the policy, we rely on the 2020 French municipal elections: the first round took place before the introduction of the restrictions, while the second round was delayed after the end of the lockdown. We estimate a spatial regression-discontinuity-design model comparing electoral outcomes around the border of red and green areas both in the second round and between the two electoral rounds. The main results suggest that lockdown regulations significantly affected voting outcomes. First, in localities under a harder lockdown, the incumbent’s vote share is higher. Second, voter turnout is larger where more stringent restrictions are adopted. These results suggest that lockdown policy mobilizes citizens and leads them to rally around the incumbent politicians.
本文的目的是研究危机管理政策对选举的影响。为此,我们利用法国COVID-19大流行期间的自然实验来评估封锁对投票行为的影响。特别是,该国被分为红色和绿色两个区域,分别受到“硬”和“软”封锁。为了衡量政策实施前后的投票行为,我们依靠2020年法国市政选举:第一轮选举在实施限制措施之前举行,而第二轮选举在封锁结束后推迟举行。我们估计了一个空间回归-不连续性-设计模型,比较了第二轮和两轮选举中红色和绿色区域边界附近的选举结果。主要结果表明,封锁措施对投票结果有显著影响。首先,在封锁力度更大的地方,现任总统的得票率更高。第二,如果采取更严格的限制措施,投票率就会更高。这些结果表明,封锁政策动员了公民,使他们团结在现任政治家周围。
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引用次数: 0
The political economy of reforms in central bank design: evidence from a new dataset 中央银行设计改革的政治经济学:来自新数据集的证据
IF 2.5 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-24 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiac011
Davide Romelli
What explains the worldwide changes in central bank design over the past five decades? Using a new dataset on central bank institutional design, this paper investigates the timing, pace and magnitude of reforms in a sample of 154 countries over the period 1972-2017. I construct a new dynamic index of central bank independence and show that past levels of independence, as well as regional convergence, represent important drivers of changes in central bank design. An external pressure, such as obtaining an IMF loan, or political events, such as democratic reforms and the election of nationalistic governments, also impact the reform process. Reforms also follow periods of high inflation rates suggesting an endogeneous evolution of central bank independence. The results also reveal important heterogeneities in the reform process depending on the level of development, the size and direction of reforms, as well as the different dimensions along which central bank legislation can be amended.
如何解释过去50年世界范围内央行设计的变化?本文使用中央银行制度设计的新数据集,研究了1972-2017年期间154个国家改革的时间、速度和规模。我构建了一个新的中央银行独立性动态指数,并表明过去的独立性水平以及区域趋同是中央银行设计变化的重要驱动因素。外部压力,如获得国际货币基金组织贷款,或政治事件,如民主改革和民族主义政府的选举,也会影响改革进程。改革还伴随着高通胀率时期,这表明央行独立性的内生演变。研究结果还揭示了改革过程中重要的异质性,这取决于发展水平、改革的规模和方向,以及央行立法可以修改的不同维度。
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引用次数: 0
Can the Covid Bailouts Save the Economy? Covid救助能拯救经济吗?
IF 2.5 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-15 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiac009
Vadim Elenev, Tim Landvoigt, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
The covid-19 crisis has led to a sharp deterioration in firm and bank balance sheets. The government has responded with a massive intervention in corporate credit markets. We study equilibrium dynamics of macroeconomic quantities and prices, and how they are affected by this policy response. The interventions prevent a much deeper crisis by reducing corporate bankruptcies by about half and short-circuiting the doom loop between corporate and financial sector fragility. The additional fiscal cost is zero since program spending replaces what would otherwise have been spent on financial sector bailouts. An alternative intervention that targets aid to firms at risk of bankruptcy prevents more bankruptcies at much lower lower fiscal cost, but only enjoys marginally higher welfare. Finally, we study longer-run consequences for firm leverage and intermediary health when pandemics become the new normal.
新冠肺炎危机导致企业和银行资产负债表急剧恶化。作为回应,政府对企业信贷市场进行了大规模干预。我们研究宏观经济数量和价格的均衡动态,以及它们如何受到这种政策反应的影响。这些干预措施将企业破产数量减少了约一半,并缩短了企业与金融部门脆弱性之间的恶性循环,从而防止了一场更深层次的危机。额外的财政成本为零,因为项目支出取代了原本用于金融部门救助的支出。另一种干预措施是针对有破产风险的企业提供援助,以更低的财政成本防止更多的企业破产,但只享有略高的福利。最后,我们研究了当流行病成为新常态时对企业杠杆和中介健康的长期影响。
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引用次数: 0
The role of schools in transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus: quasi-experimental evidence from Germany 学校在SARS-CoV-2病毒传播中的作用:来自德国的准实验证据
IF 2.5 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-10 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiac001
Clara von Bismarck-Osten, Kirill Borusyak, Uta Schönberg
This paper considers the role of school closures in the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. To isolate the impact of the closures from other containment measures and identify a causal effect, we exploit variation in the start and end dates of the summer and fall school holidays across the 16 federal states in Germany using a difference-in-differences design with staggered adoption. We show that neither the summer closures nor the closures in the fall had a significant containing effect on the spread of SARS-CoV-2 among children or a spill-over effect on older generations. There is also no evidence that the return to school at full capacity after the summer holidays increased infections among children or adults. Instead, we find that the number of children infected increased during the last weeks of the summer holiday and decreased in the first weeks after schools reopened, a pattern we attribute to travel returnees.
本文考虑了学校关闭在SARS-CoV-2病毒传播中的作用。为了将关闭的影响与其他遏制措施隔离开来,并确定因果关系,我们利用了德国16个联邦州夏季和秋季学校假期开始和结束日期的差异,采用了交错采用的差异中之差设计。我们的研究表明,无论是夏季关闭还是秋季关闭,都没有对SARS-CoV-2在儿童中的传播产生显著的遏制作用,也没有对老年人产生溢出效应。也没有证据表明暑假后满负荷返校会增加儿童或成人的感染。相反,我们发现,在暑假的最后几个星期,受感染的儿童人数有所增加,而在学校重新开学后的头几个星期,受感染的儿童人数有所减少,我们将这种模式归因于返乡旅行。
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引用次数: 0
Editors’ Introduction 编辑的介绍
IF 2.5 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-09 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiab017
In this issue, there are four policy-relevant papers that have a particular focus to questions in the areas of finance and banking (Papers 1–3) and on employment protection (Paper 4). All papers instigated fruitful discussion by reviewers and panellists throughout the review process. The first paper examines the relationship between financial crises and productivity growth. The second paper links the rise in house prices to the decline in real risk-free interest rates. The third paper explores how banks prepare for an increase in non-performing loans. Finally, the fourth paper studies the effect of a reduction in employment protection on workers’ fertility decisions. The COVID pandemic disrupted the regular panel meetings in 2020 and while some papers were presented virtually in October 2020 (Papers 2 and 3 of this issue), others were not presented at a panel (Paper 1 and 4).
本期有四篇与政策相关的论文,特别关注金融和银行领域的问题(论文1-3)和就业保护问题(论文4)。所有论文在评审过程中都引起了审稿人和小组成员富有成效的讨论。第一篇论文考察了金融危机与生产率增长之间的关系。第二篇论文将房价的上涨与实际无风险利率的下降联系起来。第三篇论文探讨了银行如何应对不良贷款的增加。最后,第四篇论文研究了就业保护减少对工人生育决策的影响。2019冠状病毒病大流行打乱了2020年的定期小组会议,虽然一些论文在2020年10月以虚拟方式提交(本期的论文2和3),但其他论文没有在小组会议上提交(论文1和4)。
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引用次数: 0
Erratum to: Cover your assets: non-performing loans and coverage ratios in Europe 覆盖你的资产:欧洲的不良贷款和覆盖率
IF 2.5 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-09 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiab018
Alessi L, Bruno B, Carletti E, et al.
Economic Policy 2021, https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiab013
经济政策2021,https://doi.org/10.1093/epolic/eiab013
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引用次数: 0
The impact of the coronavirus lockdown on mental health: evidence from the United States 冠状病毒封锁对心理健康的影响:来自美国的证据
IF 2.5 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-01-06 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiac002
Abi Adams-Prassl, Teodora Boneva, Marta Golin, Christopher Rauh
The coronavirus outbreak has caused significant disruptions to people’s lives. We exploit variation in lockdown measures across states to document the impact of stay-at-home orders on mental health using real-time survey data in the United States. We find that the lockdown measures lowered mental health by 0.083 standard deviations. This large negative effect is entirely driven by women. As a result of the lockdown measures, the existing gender gap in mental health has increased by 61%. The negative effect on women’s mental health cannot be explained by an increase in financial worries or caring responsibilities.
冠状病毒疫情对人们的生活造成了严重干扰。我们利用各州封锁措施的差异,利用美国的实时调查数据记录了居家令对心理健康的影响。我们发现,封锁措施使心理健康水平降低了0.083个标准差。这种巨大的负面影响完全是由女性造成的。由于封锁措施,心理健康方面现有的性别差距扩大了61%。对妇女心理健康的负面影响不能用经济忧虑或照顾责任的增加来解释。
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引用次数: 0
Employment protection and fertility decisions: the unintended consequences of the Italian Jobs Act 就业保护和生育决定:意大利就业法案的意外后果
IF 2.5 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-08-12 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiab015
Maria De Paola, Roberto Nisticò, Vincenzo Scoppa
SUMMARY We study the effect of a reduction in employment protection on workers’ fertility decisions. Using data from the Italian Labor Force Survey for 2013–18, we analyse how the propensity to have a child has been affected by the 2015 labour market reform dubbed the ‘Jobs Act’, which reduced employment protection for employees of larger firms while leaving small firms essentially untouched. We take a Difference-in-Differences identification approach and compare the change in fertility decisions of women employed in large firms with that of women in small firms. We find that the former’s probability of having a child is 1.4 percentage points lower. A battery of robustness checks confirms this finding. The effect also holds when possible sorting issues are accounted for by an instrumental variable approach. We document substantial heterogeneous effects by age, marital status, parity and geographical area as well as by education and earnings. Our findings suggest the potential unintended consequences on fertility that labour market reforms introducing greater flexibility may have by heightening career insecurity.
我们研究了就业保护减少对工人生育决策的影响。利用2013-18年意大利劳动力调查的数据,我们分析了2015年被称为“就业法案”的劳动力市场改革对生育倾向的影响,该法案减少了对大公司员工的就业保护,而对小公司基本没有影响。我们采用差异中的差异识别方法,比较了在大公司工作的女性与在小公司工作的女性在生育决策方面的变化。我们发现前者生孩子的概率要低1.4个百分点。一系列稳健性检查证实了这一发现。当可能的排序问题由工具变量方法来解释时,效果也成立。我们记录了年龄、婚姻状况、性别平等和地理区域以及教育和收入的大量异质性影响。我们的研究结果表明,引入更大灵活性的劳动力市场改革可能会加剧职业不安全感,从而对生育率产生潜在的意想不到的后果。
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引用次数: 0
Chaebols and firm dynamics in Korea 财阀与韩国企业的动态
IF 2.5 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-08-10 DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eiab016
Philippe Aghion, Sergei Guriev, Kangchul Jo
SUMMARY We study firm dynamics in Korea before and after the 1997/8 Asian crisis and pro-competitive reforms that reduced the dominance of chaebols. We find that in industries that were dominated by chaebols before the crisis, labour productivity and total factor productivity of non-chaebol firms increased markedly after the reforms (relative to other industries). Furthermore, entry of non-chaebol firms increased significantly in all industries after the reform. After the crisis, the non-chaebol firms also dramatically increased their patenting activity. Finally, markups of chaebol firms declined substantially, especially within industries dominated by chaebols before the crisis. These results suggest that the crisis had the virtue of helping Korea move from catching-up growth based on investment in existing technologies to innovation-based growth.
我们研究了1997/8年亚洲金融危机前后韩国的企业动态,以及减少财阀主导地位的有利于竞争的改革。我们发现,在危机前由财阀主导的行业中,改革后(相对于其他行业),非财阀企业的劳动生产率和全要素生产率显著提高。此外,改革后,非财阀企业在所有行业的进入都显著增加。金融危机之后,非财阀公司也大幅增加了专利申请活动。最后,财阀公司的利润率大幅下降,尤其是在危机前由财阀主导的行业。这些结果表明,这场危机的好处是帮助韩国从以现有技术投资为基础的赶超增长转向以创新为基础的增长。
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引用次数: 0
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Economic Policy
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