Population Studies-A Journal of Demography最新文献

The net reproduction rate (NRR) is an alternative fertility measure to the more common total fertility rate (TFR) and accounts for the mortality context of the population studied. This study is the first to compare NRR trends in high- and low-income countries and to decompose NRR changes over time into fertility and survival components. The results show that changes in the NRR have been driven mostly by changes in fertility. Yet improvements in survival have also played an important role in explaining changes in the NRR over the last century and represent a substantial component of change in some low-income countries today. Furthermore, the decomposition of the survival component by age indicates that the survival effect on population reproduction is concentrated mostly in infancy, although the HIV/AIDS epidemic altered this age profile in some populations. The findings highlight the importance of mortality's effect on reproduction in specific periods and contexts.

At the population level, there is limited empirical evidence on the characteristics of individuals who were hospitalized because of Covid-19, the role of hospitalization in mortality risk, and how both evolved over time. Through the analysis of surveillance data for 7 million people in Austria, Germany, and Italy, we investigate: (1) the demographic characteristics and outcomes of individuals hospitalized because of Covid-19; and (2) the role of demographic risk factors and healthcare utilization (as measured by hospitalization) for the individual probability of dying because of Covid-19, in both cases comparing the period February to June 2020 with July 2020 to February 2021. We find that the demographic profile of individuals who were hospitalized or died because of Covid-19 is the same in both periods, except for a younger age profile for hospitalizations in the second period. Mortality differentials across countries result from the interaction of demographic risk factors and hospitalization at the individual level.

Studies show that body mass index during early adulthood ('early BMI') predicts the transition to first birth, but early childbearers tend to be omitted from such studies. This sample selection distorts the prevalence of childlessness, and particularly the racial/ethnic heterogeneity therein, because first birth timing differs by race/ethnicity. We imputed pre-parenthood early BMI for a larger sample, including early childbearers, for the same United States NLSY79 data used in a previous study and simulated differences in the probability of childlessness at age 40+ using posterior distributions based on the Bayesian framework. Obesity was consistently associated with higher childlessness across racial/ethnic groups in both sexes, but only among obese women were first births delayed until after early adulthood. The overall lower childlessness among the underweight women appeared largely driven by Black women. Our findings on the intersectionality of race/ethnicity and sex in the BMI-childlessness pathways encourage research on the underlying mechanisms and on more recent cohorts across different societies.

This study uses prospective data spanning 27 years (1991-2018) to explore the relationship between economic precariousness and transitions to first co-residential partnership among Britons aged 18-34 across three dimensions: age, historical time, and sex. Economic precariousness is measured using eight objective and subjective indicators, including income, employment, housing, and financial perceptions. Our results show that economic precariousness has a strong negative relationship with entering the first co-residential partnership among those aged 20-30, but the pattern is less clear among the youngest and oldest. Objective measures are easier to interpret than subjective measures. Historical analyses suggest that not being employed decreases the probability of union formation more in recessionary periods than in non-recessionary ones. Among working women, low labour income started to be a predictor of union formation in the most recent periods. Labour income is the only indicator presenting trends in line with our hypotheses across all dimensions.

Age gaps between partners have undergone dramatic changes in high-income countries over the past century. Yet, there has been little focus on age gaps for immigrants and their descendants. This is an important omission because age gaps can be interpreted as a macro-level indicator of intergenerational adaptation. We examine the age gaps of biological parents (childbearing partners) among immigrants and their descendants in Sweden, a country with high gender equality and a stable mean age gap. Using longitudinal, whole-population data, we examine changes in age gaps for cohorts born 1950-86. Cohort trends in age gaps often follow very different patterns for male and female immigrants, with limited evidence of adaptation across cohorts. However, there is considerable evidence of adaptation towards the Swedish norm among the second generation, including from direct comparison between immigrants and their children. The largest differences between women and men are seen among the first generation with a Swedish-born partner.

The Brazilian period total fertility rate (PTFR) dropped to 1.8 in 2010 (1.5 among those with high education). Due to shifts in fertility timing, the PTFR may provide a misleading picture of fertility levels. The consequences of these changes for the cohort total fertility rate (CTFR)-a measure free from tempo distortions-and for educational differences in completed fertility remain unknown. Due to data limitations, CTFR forecasts in low- and middle-income countries are rare. We use Brazilian censuses to reconstruct fertility rates indirectly and forecast the CTFR for all women and by educational level. Four forecasting methods indicate that the CTFR is unlikely to fall to the level of the PTFR. Educational differences in the CTFR are likely to be stark, at 0.7-0.9, larger than in many high-income countries with comparable CTFRs. We show how the CTFR can be forecasted in settings with limited data and call for more research on educational differences in completed fertility in low- and middle-income countries.

Death of a parent during childhood has become rare in developed countries but remains an important life course event that may have consequences for family formation. This paper describes the link between parental death before age 18 and fertility outcomes in adulthood. Using the large national 2011 French Family Survey (INSEE-INED), we focus on the 1946-66 birth cohorts, for whom we observe entire fertility histories. The sample includes 11,854 respondents who have lost at least one parent before age 18. We find a strong polarization of fertility behaviours among orphaned males, more pronounced for those coming from a disadvantaged background. More often childless, particularly when parental death occurred in adolescence, some seem to retreat from parenthood. But orphaned men and women who do become parents seem to embrace family life, by beginning childbearing earlier and having more children, especially when the deceased parent is of the same sex.

Earlier research has documented a relationship between parity and all-cause mortality, as well as parity and cause-specific mortality (e.g. cancer and cardiovascular disease mortality). Less is known about the relationship between parity and two very common (but less deadly) types of disorder: mental and musculoskeletal. We examine the association between parity and risk of disability pensioning from all causes and due to mental or musculoskeletal disorders, using Norwegian register data. In addition to controlling for adult socio-demographic characteristics, we control for unobserved confounding from family background by estimating sibling fixed-effects models. We find a higher risk of disability pensioning among the childless and those with one child than for parents with two children, both for all causes combined and for mental disorders. Childless men and fathers with one child also experience excess risk of being pensioned due to musculoskeletal disorders. For mental disorders, we find a positive association with high parity, particularly for men.

While there is a large literature investigating migrant marriage or fertility, little research has examined how childbearing and partnerships are interrelated. In this paper, we investigate how childbearing and partnership trajectories evolve and interact over the life course for immigrants and their descendants and how the relationship varies by migrant origin. We apply multichannel sequence analysis to rich longitudinal survey data from France and find significant differences in family-related behaviour between immigrants, their descendants, and the native French. Immigrants' family behaviour is characterized by stronger association between marriage and childbearing than in the native population. However, there are significant differences across migrant groups. Turkish immigrants exhibit the most conservative family pathways. By contrast, the family behaviour of European immigrants is similar to that of the native population. The study also demonstrates that the family behaviour of some descendant groups has gradually become indistinguishable from that of the native French, whereas for other groups significant differences in family behaviour persist.Supplementary material for this article is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2022.2049856.