Population Studies-A Journal of Demography最新文献

We follow general fertility rates (GFRs) in Switzerland up to 2022, with a focus on their dynamics during and after pandemics. Historical influenza pandemics (1889-90, 1918-20, 1957) have consistently led to temporary declines in births between six and nine months after the pandemic peak. High rates of miscarriage may explain these findings. After the 1889-90 and 1918-20 pandemics, short-term baby booms occurred. For the recent Covid-19 pandemic, the dynamics appear more complex. The GFR had already been declining since 2018, before the pandemic hit Switzerland. During and shortly after the first two waves in 2020, there was an increase in conceptions, leading to a higher GFR in 2021: shutdown measures may have brought planned pregnancies forwards. Subsequently, the GFR declined from February 2022; one possible explanation is that pregnancies were intentionally postponed until after vaccination. Following these population-level observations, more in-depth studies are needed to understand better why fertility is affected by pandemics.

This paper explores the shift in family influence on socio-economic outcomes, focusing on sibling relationships, from the sixteenth to the nineteenth centuries in the Barcelona area. Our findings reveal a diminishing role of vertical ties (parents-children) and an increasing significance of horizontal ties (between siblings). Specifically, brothers who were first in the sibling group to marry exerted more influence on socio-economic persistence over time, aligning with the changes in familial dynamics since proto-industrialization. Gender dynamics highlight the influence of first-married brothers' influence, although first-married sisters were also significantly associated with non-first-married siblings' social mobility. The intensification of horizontal ties is seen as a cooperative model among siblings, challenging the notion of a complete loss of family influence during industrialization. The study contributes nuance to modernization theory by highlighting the enduring importance of kinship in industrial periods, especially among siblings.

Internal migration fell in high-income countries such as Australia, the UK, and the United States during the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries. High-level explanations for these declines have referred to developmental stage (Zelinsky's super-advanced society), changed values and preferences (secular rootedness), and long-run socio-demographic change (second demographic transition). We assess the relevance of these overlapping interpretations in the Norwegian context via a combination of direct empirical tests (using full-population register data for 1981-2015 and Oaxaca-Blinder analysis) and indirect assessments based on the inherent features of the Norwegian case study. The net effect of changes in population composition and behaviours has been to increase migration: the upward effects of a more educated population and changed household structures have outweighed the downward effects of population ageing. Our results raise questions about how far these macro explanations of migration decline are generally applicable. We offer some suggestions for future conceptual and empirical investigation.

In the context of low fertility and population ageing, many countries look to immigration to address labour shortages and reduce the effects of population decline. While the short-term effects of immigration are relatively well understood, the long-term demographic consequences of high and sustained immigration are still undetermined. In this paper, we highlight the major contributions that immigration has made to population change across 11 geographic areas in Australia from 1981 to 2021. The analyses use recently reconciled demographic component data for 18 overseas-born subgroups and the Australia-born population by age and sex. While net international migration of overseas-born people contributed approximately 56 per cent of overall population growth over the 40-year period, immigrants also made sizeable contributions to other demographic processes: 28 per cent of births, 31 per cent of deaths, and 17 per cent of interregional migration. This research provides new insights into both period-specific and long-term demographic effects of diverse immigration streams across Australia's cities and regions.

Research remains inconclusive on whether increased longevity is resulting in disability compression. Using the Health and Retirement Study and multistate models, this study is the first to examine trends (between 1996-2006 and 2008-18) across multiple key aspects of disability burden: namely, lifetime risk and age at onset of disability; recovery and mortality of the disabled; and disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) at age 50 in the United States' older population. Furthermore, we differentiate these trends by key socio-demographic factors: sex, race/ethnicity, and educational attainment. The analysis shows that over four-fifths of the total life expectancy increase at age 50 was in DFLE. This was accompanied by a one-year postponement in disability onset and insignificant recovery from disability. However, lifetime risk of disability remained unchanged between periods. Disability trends improved more for women than men. Latinx and the lowest-educated adults experienced no improvement in disability onset. The lowest-educated Whites exhibited substantial health deterioration.

Studies in low-fertility settings have consistently found positive relationships between parents' and children's fertility timing and family sizes, and these persist after accounting for socio-demographic factors. We explore intergenerational transmission of fertility in Great Britain, where socio-economic inequalities are larger and could play a greater role in explaining intergenerational continuities than in other settings. Using the 1970 British Cohort Study, a long-running longitudinal data set, we estimate parity-specific discrete-time event-history models to investigate the role of mother's family size and age at first birth in birth transitions. We find stronger evidence for transmission of birth timing and family size in transitions to first and third births than second births. Family size transmission affects daughters more than sons. Accounting for socio-economic and demographic characteristics does not explain these associations. Except for first births, transmission of fertility is equally likely across the socio-economic hierarchy, highlighting the importance of socialization and cultural preferences for fertility transmission, even in the relatively unequal British context.

This study investigated educational differences in parity distribution at separation. Using the Harmonized Histories and GGS-II data sets, we examined unions ending in separation in 1995-2004 and in 2011-20 across 12 countries in Europe and North America, comparing them with a matched group of intact unions. Our analysis revealed a negative educational gradient in parity at separation. The mean number of children at separation decreased with higher levels of parental education in 10 out of 12 countries in the earlier observation window and four out of six countries in the later observation window. This educational gradient was more pronounced in unions ending in separation than intact unions and also in the earlier observation window. Overall, our findings show that couples with low and medium education contribute disproportionately to the population of children experiencing parental separation, corroborating concerns raised by previous studies on the social stratification of separation.

While concerns have been raised about declining marriage and fertility rates and increasing union dissolution, less attention has been paid to individuals remaining single. We ask whether individuals with different occupational characteristics experience different chances of remaining single throughout their lives and whether this relationship has changed across birth cohorts for men or women. We focus on Italy, a familistic context where exacerbated work-family conflict may hinder family formation for career-oriented women, while the male breadwinner norm makes occupational outcomes crucial for men's mating market chances. Based on Kaplan-Meier survival curves and logistic regression models using rich retrospective survey data, our analysis suggests that stronger labour market attachment is positively associated with singlehood for women and negatively for men. The work-family trade-off appears to have disappeared for women across the birth cohorts studied, whereas careers have become increasingly relevant for men, suggesting that the male breadwinner model is strongly entrenched in Italy.

Widely credited with ending population control and ushering in a new era of reproductive rights, the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) Programme of Action also included some important compromises. The commemoration of ICPD+30 presents an opportune moment to reflect critically on those compromises and their implications for family planning programmes in the three decades since. Here, we critically examine how these compromises have enabled population control logics to flourish within global family planning programmes and the ways that neo-Malthusian concerns still motivate contraceptive programming under co-opted feminist rhetoric. We argue that rather than binary stances of 'pro' or 'anti' contraception, the post-ICPD landscape includes multiple contested positions, including: (1) concern for reproductive rights and autonomy; (2) concern over fertility or population dynamics; and (3) opposition to biomedical contraception and abortion. Setting out the intersecting and diverging tenets of these ideologies, we call for more critical reflection on these tangled histories and engagement with reproductive justice during ICPD+30.

Demographers have long suspected that ordinary people in societies experiencing rapid demographic transition face difficulties in perceiving mortality decline. Recent empirical accounts have supported this supposition, demonstrating the extent of misperceptions in select transitioning societies and examining the individual life-course experiences that predate them. Yet, the broader significance of individuals misperceiving the presence or degree of mortality decline remains unclear. This paper examines whether individuals' perceptions of mortality conditions are systematically related to their perceptions of modern healthcare, as the old hypothesis suggested. Using data from the Tsogolo la Thanzi study of women in Balaka, Malawi-a context where mortality has declined dramatically alongside the expansion of modern healthcare-this study assesses whether a pessimistic outlook on mortality corresponds with scepticism of modern healthcare. The results emphasize the continued need for demographic research that grapples with individuals' perceptions of mortality decline, given the broader salience of perceptions to population health matters.