Population Studies-A Journal of Demography最新文献

The sense of belonging to the current neighbourhood may play a role in the transition to parenthood by indicating a feeling of being 'at home' and having access to social resources. However, previous research has indicated that individuals often move house in anticipation of parenthood, likely altering their connection to the neighbourhood in the process. With data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study (2009-23) and using logit regression, we examine the likelihood of a first birth. The results reveal that individuals with a higher sense of belonging to their neighbourhood are more likely to have a first child: especially recent movers compared with long-term residents. Furthermore, while long-distance movers generally show a lower probability of becoming parents, those with a high sense of belonging are as likely as short-distance movers to become parents. These findings suggest that socio-spatial factors play a role in the transition to parenthood.

Evidence shows that immigrants are often in better health than the native born-the so-called 'immigrant health paradox'-and this advantage may extend to their children's health. A commonly cited but rarely tested explanation is the 'selectivity hypothesis', positing that immigrants are healthier due to selection at origin based on health or socio-economic status (SES). Using 2007-19 Spanish birth registries, we investigate immigrant-native gaps in health at birth and whether they are explained by immigrants' educational selectivity. We find that babies born to immigrants are less likely to be low birthweight (LBW) but are disadvantaged in terms of macrosomia and gestational age. Selectivity is associated with reduced LBW even after accounting for parental SES, explaining the lower risk among children of Northern African and Latin American immigrants but not across other parental country-of-birth groups. Selectivity is not associated with other birth outcomes. We confirm the selectivity hypothesis but question its universality across groups and health outcomes.

Italy has witnessed increases in life expectancy and population ageing, raising concerns about their impact on population health. Disability status greatly affects the participation of mid-to-older-aged adults in various aspects of life. We examine the long-term trend in disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) in Italy, over three different periods between 2004 and 2019, and explore disability dynamics (onset and recovery) and changes in disability-specific mortality. We use IT-SILC longitudinal data to estimate transition probabilities and DFLE between ages 50 and 79 and decompose DFLE changes in terms of these transitions. Overall, DFLE has improved over recent decades but not always as favourably as life expectancy. The trends indicate compression of disability between ages 50 and 79 in the most recent years. Changes in disability transitions have had the greatest influence, whereas disability-specific mortality has had much less impact on DFLE changes. The greatest contributions have come from increases in the probability of recovery from disability.

The experience of losing a child is increasingly uncommon worldwide but is no less devastating for parents who experience it. An overlooked aspect of this phenomenon is its timing: at which age do bereft parents lose a child and how are these ages at loss distributed? We use demographic methods to explore the mean and variability of maternal age at child loss in 18 countries for the 1850-2000 birth cohorts. We find that the distribution of age of child loss is bimodal, with one component representing young offspring deaths and another representing adult offspring deaths. Offspring loss is transitioning from being a relatively common life event, mostly experienced by young mothers, to a rare one spread throughout the maternal life course. Moreover, there is no evidence of convergence in the variability of age at offspring loss. These results advance the formal demography of kinship and underline the need to support bereaved parents across the life course.

The disappearance of the social gradient in fertility represents a paradigm shift that has called into question the validity of theories that predicted a decline in fertility with increased access to education and resources. Emerging theories have tried to explain this trend by highlighting a potential change in the fertility preferences of more educated couples. In this paper we add additional elements to this explanation. Using a computational modelling approach, we show that it is still possible to simulate the weakening social gradient in fertility, in the context of steady declines in family size preferences. Our results show that one of the key drivers of the change in the education-fertility relationship can be found in the transition to an increasingly regulated fertility regime. As the share of unplanned births decreases over time, the negative association between education and fertility weakens and the mechanisms that positively connect educational attainment with desired fertility become dominant.

This study investigates birthdate patterns in a context of well-established civil registers and intensive migration inflows. Leveraging extensive Spanish microdata on residential variation flows and the Spanish Municipality Register, this research reveals new facets of the distributions of immigrants' birthdates across days of the month that differ significantly from those of non-migrants. The registered days of the month for birthdates are categorized into six distinct types based on the assumption that the anomalous distributions of birthdates will display rounding or simplifying patterns (digit preferences). The investigation reveals important anomalies in the distribution of birthdates that are much more pronounced for immigrants. A notable concentration of recorded birthdates is confirmed within all the designated types, contrasted by an under-recording of births on the remaining days of the month. These anomalies depend primarily on migrants' country of origin and age group. The paper ends by proposing some recommendations for mitigating the anomalies.

While extensive literature documents the massive fertility delay of recent decades, knowledge about whether and how attitudes towards the timing of births have changed in Europe remains limited. Using data from two rounds of the European Social Survey, we investigate these changes and their association with macro-level fertility indicators in 21 countries. Between 2006-07 and 2018-19, societal consensus regarding the existence of optimal childbearing ages remained strong and became more in favour of later parenthood. Decomposition analyses show that these shifts were driven only partially by changes in population composition, supporting the idea that a general attitudinal change in favour of later childbearing is underway. We also find a trend towards gender convergence in upper age limits driven by the increasing social recognition of an age deadline for men's childbearing. Although shifts in perceived reproductive age windows occurred during periods of birth postponement, they corresponded only loosely to country-level changes in fertility.

Rising feminization of migration has resulted in substantial flows of women migrating in Africa, increasing the importance of migration in women's lives. Although child fostering is an enduring feature of family life throughout Africa, few studies have examined the role that maternal migration may play in these arrangements. I use Demographic and Health Survey data from 24 African countries to explore associations between maternal migration experience and fostering out of children aged 0-17, focusing on maternal migrant status, migrant stream, motivation, and timing of migration relative to births of children, to explore potential disruption introduced by migration. Results suggest that maternal migration disrupts mother-child co-residence, with greater fostering among children of migrant mothers, particularly rural-urban migrants. Children born before migration display the highest probability of fostering, consistently across migrant streams. These results suggest a need for greater attention to the impacts of maternal migration for children's living arrangements, particularly as migration flows become increasingly feminized.

This study examines an inconsistency between an attitude and a behaviour: non-use of contraception among people who are not trying to get pregnant. More than one in four people in that situation report not using contraception 'sometimes' or 'always' and consequently face the risk of pregnancy. We test three potential explanations: acceptability of having (further) children; perceived low pregnancy risk; and perceived social pressure. Using 10 waves of the German pairfam panel, we estimate sex-specific between-within models, where each explanation is tested by several indicators. We find evidence for the explanation of a(nother) child being considered acceptable: a positive fertility desire increases contraceptive non-use among women and men, and relationship duration increases it among women. Supporting the explanation of low perceived pregnancy risk, analyses show that perceived infertility, breastfeeding, and age increase the probability of non-use of contraception for women and men. However, there is no strong evidence for perceived social pressure affecting contraceptive non-use.

Multimorbidity is increasing globally as populations age. However, it is unclear how long individuals live with multimorbidity and how it varies by social and economic factors. We investigate this in South Africa, whose apartheid history further complicates race, socio-economic, and sex inequalities. We introduce the term 'multimorbid life expectancy' (MMLE) to describe the years lived with multimorbidity. Using data from the South African National Income Dynamics Study (2008-17) and incidence-based multistate Markov modelling, we find that females experience higher MMLE than males (17.3 vs 9.8 years), and this disparity is consistent across all race and education groups. MMLE is highest among Asian/Indian people and the post-secondary educated relative to other groups and lowest among African people. These findings suggest there are associations between structural inequalities and MMLE, highlighting the need for health-system and educational policies to be implemented in a way proportional to each group's level of need.