Population Studies-A Journal of Demography最新文献

An established negative association between socio-economic status (SES) and divorce has applied to most Western nations since 1960. We expected a positive association between SES and divorce for low-divorce contexts historically because only individuals in higher social strata had the resources to overcome barriers to divorce. According to Goode's socio-economic growth theory, this relationship was reversed as industrialization and modernization began removing the economic and normative barriers. Making use of longitudinal data from parish registers, we investigated SES and other micro-level determinants of divorce among men and women in northern Sweden who married between 1880 and 1954. Results indicated a positive association between SES and divorce among those who married 1880-1919, with the middle class, not the elite, featuring the highest divorce risks. This association changed for couples who married in the 1920s, for whom divorce became more common and the working class faced similar divorce risks to the higher social strata.

Because internal and international migration are typically conceptualized and measured separately, empirical evidence on the links between these two forms of population movement remains partial. This paper takes a step towards integration by establishing how internal and international migration precede one another in various sequenced relationships from birth to age 50 in 20 European countries. We apply sequence and cluster analysis to full retrospective migration histories collected as part of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe in 2008-09 and 2017, for individuals born between 1950 and 1965. The results show that nearly all international migrants engage in internal mobility at some point in their lives. However, individual migration trajectories are delineated by the order of internal and international moves, the duration and timing of stays abroad, and the extent to which individuals engage in return international migration. Institutional and economic conditions shape the diversity of migration experiences.

We examine the socio-economic differentials in mothers' and non-mothers' repartnering behaviours following the dissolution of a co-residential (marital or cohabiting) union. Based on five waves of the National Survey of Family Growth (N = 11,479), we use discrete-time event history models, jointly modelling exit from a partnership and entry into a new union. Few differences are found for entry into direct marriage, which is a rarely observed event. However, when we examine women's entry into cohabitation (a possible stepping stone to marriage), we observe: (1) a motherhood gap, where mothers are less likely to repartner than non-mothers; (2) a negative association between educational attainment and repartnering probability; and (3) the motherhood gap existing only for low-educated women. Supplementary analyses on the impact of the Great Recession demonstrate that whereas the economic cycle mattered for the repartnering of low-educated women, it made no difference for more highly educated women.

Although preterm birth is the leading cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality in advanced economies, evidence about the consequences of prematurity in later life is limited. Using Swedish registers for cohorts born 1982-94 (N  =  1,087,750), we examine the effects of preterm birth on school grades at age 16 using sibling fixed effects models. We further examine how school grades are affected by degree of prematurity and the compensating roles of family socio-economic resources and characteristics of school districts. Our results show that the negative effects of preterm birth are observed mostly among children born extremely preterm (<28 weeks); children born moderately preterm (32-<37 weeks) suffer no ill effects. We do not find any evidence for a moderating effect of parental socio-economic resources. Children born extremely preterm and in the top decile of school districts achieve as good grades as children born at full term in an average school district.Supplementary material for this article is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2022.2080247.

One line of enquiry in demographic research assesses whether climate affects fertility. We extend this literature by examining the ramifications of climate conditions on fertility over a period of public health crisis in a highly unequal, urban middle-income country. We use monthly data for Brazil's 5,564 municipalities and apply spatial fixed-effects models to account for unobserved municipal heterogeneity and spatial dependence. Findings suggest that increases in temperature and precipitation are associated with declines in births. We also show that changes in response to climate conditions became greater during the Zika epidemic, particularly in urban areas. Combined, findings highlight the value of understanding the intersections between climate and fertility across geographic boundaries and during this public health crisis. Epidemics have become more important in people's lives with the recurring emergence of novel infectious disease threats, such as Zika and Covid-19.

Few studies have followed immigrant-origin individuals from adolescence to adulthood or examined their spousal choices. Using longitudinal data from Add Health, we present a life-course model that examines the differences in racial assortative mating between children of immigrants and non-immigrants. The results reveal substantial variation in racial endogamy from generation to generation. Racial endogamy was highest in the third generation, but this is due entirely to high racial endogamy among whites. Out-marriage was most pronounced among first- and second-generation immigrants. Our life-course approach shows that the effects of race and generation on intermarriage were mediated by family background (e.g. language proficiency and residence) and educational attainment (at time of marriage), a finding largely indicative of processes of marital assimilation that unfold over time and generation. Evidence of acculturation and structural assimilation, however, could not fully account for the large, persistent, and uneven effects of race and generation on interracial marriage.

This study uses income accumulated over ages 20-60 to examine whether richer or poorer individuals have more children. Income histories are calculated using yearly administrative register data from contemporary Sweden for cohorts born 1940-70. Differences by parity and income distribution are examined separately by sex. There is a strong positive gradient between accumulated disposable income (and to a lesser extent earnings) and fertility for men in all cohorts and a gradual transformation from a negative to a positive gradient for women. In particular, accumulated incomes are substantially lower for childless men and women than those with children. For men, fertility increases monotonically with increasing income, whereas for women much of the positive gradient results from low fertility among women with very low accumulated incomes in later cohorts. Most of the positive income-fertility gradient can be explained by the high incomes of men and women with two to four children.

The net reproduction rate (NRR) is an alternative fertility measure to the more common total fertility rate (TFR) and accounts for the mortality context of the population studied. This study is the first to compare NRR trends in high- and low-income countries and to decompose NRR changes over time into fertility and survival components. The results show that changes in the NRR have been driven mostly by changes in fertility. Yet improvements in survival have also played an important role in explaining changes in the NRR over the last century and represent a substantial component of change in some low-income countries today. Furthermore, the decomposition of the survival component by age indicates that the survival effect on population reproduction is concentrated mostly in infancy, although the HIV/AIDS epidemic altered this age profile in some populations. The findings highlight the importance of mortality's effect on reproduction in specific periods and contexts.

At the population level, there is limited empirical evidence on the characteristics of individuals who were hospitalized because of Covid-19, the role of hospitalization in mortality risk, and how both evolved over time. Through the analysis of surveillance data for 7 million people in Austria, Germany, and Italy, we investigate: (1) the demographic characteristics and outcomes of individuals hospitalized because of Covid-19; and (2) the role of demographic risk factors and healthcare utilization (as measured by hospitalization) for the individual probability of dying because of Covid-19, in both cases comparing the period February to June 2020 with July 2020 to February 2021. We find that the demographic profile of individuals who were hospitalized or died because of Covid-19 is the same in both periods, except for a younger age profile for hospitalizations in the second period. Mortality differentials across countries result from the interaction of demographic risk factors and hospitalization at the individual level.

Studies show that body mass index during early adulthood ('early BMI') predicts the transition to first birth, but early childbearers tend to be omitted from such studies. This sample selection distorts the prevalence of childlessness, and particularly the racial/ethnic heterogeneity therein, because first birth timing differs by race/ethnicity. We imputed pre-parenthood early BMI for a larger sample, including early childbearers, for the same United States NLSY79 data used in a previous study and simulated differences in the probability of childlessness at age 40+ using posterior distributions based on the Bayesian framework. Obesity was consistently associated with higher childlessness across racial/ethnic groups in both sexes, but only among obese women were first births delayed until after early adulthood. The overall lower childlessness among the underweight women appeared largely driven by Black women. Our findings on the intersectionality of race/ethnicity and sex in the BMI-childlessness pathways encourage research on the underlying mechanisms and on more recent cohorts across different societies.