Population Studies-A Journal of Demography最新文献

Rising feminization of migration has resulted in substantial flows of women migrating in Africa, increasing the importance of migration in women's lives. Although child fostering is an enduring feature of family life throughout Africa, few studies have examined the role that maternal migration may play in these arrangements. I use Demographic and Health Survey data from 24 African countries to explore associations between maternal migration experience and fostering out of children aged 0-17, focusing on maternal migrant status, migrant stream, motivation, and timing of migration relative to births of children, to explore potential disruption introduced by migration. Results suggest that maternal migration disrupts mother-child co-residence, with greater fostering among children of migrant mothers, particularly rural-urban migrants. Children born before migration display the highest probability of fostering, consistently across migrant streams. These results suggest a need for greater attention to the impacts of maternal migration for children's living arrangements, particularly as migration flows become increasingly feminized.

This study examines an inconsistency between an attitude and a behaviour: non-use of contraception among people who are not trying to get pregnant. More than one in four people in that situation report not using contraception 'sometimes' or 'always' and consequently face the risk of pregnancy. We test three potential explanations: acceptability of having (further) children; perceived low pregnancy risk; and perceived social pressure. Using 10 waves of the German pairfam panel, we estimate sex-specific between-within models, where each explanation is tested by several indicators. We find evidence for the explanation of a(nother) child being considered acceptable: a positive fertility desire increases contraceptive non-use among women and men, and relationship duration increases it among women. Supporting the explanation of low perceived pregnancy risk, analyses show that perceived infertility, breastfeeding, and age increase the probability of non-use of contraception for women and men. However, there is no strong evidence for perceived social pressure affecting contraceptive non-use.

Multimorbidity is increasing globally as populations age. However, it is unclear how long individuals live with multimorbidity and how it varies by social and economic factors. We investigate this in South Africa, whose apartheid history further complicates race, socio-economic, and sex inequalities. We introduce the term 'multimorbid life expectancy' (MMLE) to describe the years lived with multimorbidity. Using data from the South African National Income Dynamics Study (2008-17) and incidence-based multistate Markov modelling, we find that females experience higher MMLE than males (17.3 vs 9.8 years), and this disparity is consistent across all race and education groups. MMLE is highest among Asian/Indian people and the post-secondary educated relative to other groups and lowest among African people. These findings suggest there are associations between structural inequalities and MMLE, highlighting the need for health-system and educational policies to be implemented in a way proportional to each group's level of need.

Precise estimates of the impact of famine on infant and child mortality are rare due to lack of representative data. Using vital statistics reports on the Netherlands for 1935-47, we examine the impact of the Dutch famine (November 1944 to May 1945) on age-specific mortality risk and cause of death in four age groups (stillbirths, <1 year, 1-4, 5-14) in the three largest famine-affected cities and the remainder of the country. Mortality during the famine is compared with the pre-war period January 1935 to April 1940, the war period May 1940 to October 1944, and the post-war period June 1945 to December 1947. The famine's impact was most visible in infants because of the combined effects of a high absolute death rate and a threefold increase in proportional mortality, mostly from gastrointestinal conditions. These factors make infant mortality the most sensitive indicator of famine severity in this setting and a candidate marker for comparative use in future studies.

Stressful experiences are common among migrants and may have health implications. With the only US nationally representative data set on migration, the New Immigrant Survey, we used survey-adjusted descriptive and multivariate regression methods to examine whether victimization prior to resettlement was associated with obesity, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, arthritis, cancer, and chronic lung disease. Among foreign-born people who obtained lawful permanent residence in the US in 2003-04, 6.7 per cent reported victimization before arriving in the US. Those who had experienced victimization more often suffered from chronic conditions than people without such experiences: they were 32 per cent more likely to suffer from at least one chronic condition (p < 0.05), especially cancer (4.36, p < 0.05), arthritis (1.77, p < 0.01), and cardiovascular disease (odds ratio 1.32, p < 0.05). These relationships were in part mediated by differences in healthcare access after arriving in the US between those who had experienced victimization and those who had not. Victimization may have consequences for integration and later-life chronic disease.

Discrete-time multistate life tables are attractive because they are easier to understand and apply in comparison with their continuous-time counterparts. While such models are based on a discrete time grid, it is often useful to calculate derived magnitudes (e.g. state occupation times), under assumptions which posit that transitions take place at other times, such as mid-period. Unfortunately, currently available models allow very few choices about transition timing. We propose the use of Markov chains with rewards as a general way of incorporating information on the timing of transitions into the model. We illustrate the usefulness of rewards-based multistate life tables by estimating working life expectancies using different retirement transition timings. We also demonstrate that for the single-state case, the rewards approach matches traditional life-table methods exactly. Finally, we provide code to replicate all results from the paper plus R and Stata packages for general use of the method proposed.

Grandparental support may protect mothers from depression, particularly mothers who separate and enter single parenthood. Using longitudinal Finnish register data on 116,917 separating and 371,703 non-separating mothers with young children, we examined differences in mothers' antidepressant purchases by grandparental characteristics related to provision of support. Grandparents' younger age (<70 years), employment, and lack of severe health problems predicted a lower probability of maternal depression. Depression was also less common if grandparents lived close to the mother and if the maternal grandparents' union was intact. Differences in maternal depression by grandparental characteristics were larger among separating than among non-separating mothers, particularly during the years before separation. Overall, maternal grandmothers' characteristics appeared to matter most, while the role of paternal grandparents was smaller. The findings suggest that grandparental characteristics associated with increased potential for providing support and decreased need of receiving support predict a lower likelihood of maternal depression, particularly among separating mothers.

We examine the timely yet greatly under-researched interplay between home-based work (HBW) and women's birth transitions. Past research has shown that HBW may facilitate and/or jeopardize work-family balance, depending on the worker's family and work circumstances. Following that research, we develop here a theoretical framework on how HBW can facilitate or hinder fertility. Using the UK Household Longitudinal Study 2009-19 and random-effects cloglog regression, we study the link between HBW and first- and second-birth risks. We find that HBW is negatively associated with the transition to motherhood and unrelated to the progression to a second child. We also show that HBW helps to enable women to have children if they would otherwise face a long commute. All in all, our findings do not support the idea that the spread of HBW will lead to an immediate increase in fertility.

Demographers have developed a number of methods for expanding abridged mortality data into a complete schedule; however, these can be usefully applied only under certain conditions, and the presence or absence of one or more additional sources of incompleteness can degrade their relative accuracy, lead to implausible profiles, or even cause the methods to fail. We develop a new method for expanding an abridged schedule based on calibrated splines; this method is accurate and robust in the presence of errors in mortality rates, missing values, and truncation. We compare its performance with the performance of existing methods for expanding abridged data and find that it is superior to current methods at producing accurate and plausible complete schedules over a broad range of data-quality conditions. The method when applied is a valuable addition to existing tools for estimating mortality, especially for small nations, countries with incomplete vital statistics, and subnational populations.

The influence of kin on various outcomes is heavily debated. However, kinship size itself conditions the probability of potential effects. Socio-economic gradients in the prevalence, variance, and types of kin are, therefore, a vital aspect of the functions of kin. Unfortunately, these parameters are largely unknown. We used Swedish register data to enumerate consanguine and in-law kin across the life course of the 1975 birth cohort. We calculated differences in kinship size between this cohort's income quartiles and educational groups. We decomposed how specific kin relations, generations, and demographic behaviours contributed to these differences. Among low socio-economic status (SES) groups, higher fertility in earlier generations resulted in more kin compared with high-SES groups. Low-SES groups had more horizontal consanguine kin, while high-SES groups had more in-laws. Lower fertility and higher union instability among low-SES men substantially narrowed SES differences in kinship size. Kinship size varied substantially within SES groups.