Review of Economic Dynamics最新文献

英文中文

Searching for wage growth: Policy responses to the “new machine age” 寻找工资增长：对“新机器时代”的政策回应

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-04-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101286

Andrew Berg , Edward F. Buffie , Mariarosaria Comunale , Chris Papageorgiou , Luis-Felipe Zanna

The current wave of technological revolution is changing the way policies work. This paper examines the growth and distributional implications of cuts in the corporate tax rate and public investment in infrastructure and education in a neoclassical growth model with “robot” capital (a broad definition of robots, Artificial Intelligence, computers, big data, digitalization, networks, sensors and servos). We find that incorporating robot capital into the model makes a big difference to policy outcomes: the trickle-down effects of corporate tax cuts on unskilled wages are attenuated, and the advantages of investment in infrastructure, and especially in education, are bigger. Based on our calibrations, grounded in new empirical estimates, infrastructure investment and corporate tax cuts dominate investment in education in a “traditional” economy. However, in an economy with robots, infrastructure investment dominates corporate tax cuts, while investment in education tends to produce the highest welfare gains of all.

当前的技术革命浪潮正在改变政策的运作方式。本文在具有“机器人”资本（机器人、人工智能、计算机、大数据、数字化、网络、传感器和伺服系统的广义定义）的新古典增长模型中，研究了削减公司税、基础设施和教育公共投资对增长和分配的影响。我们发现，将机器人资本纳入模型会对政策结果产生重大影响：企业减税对非熟练工人工资的涓滴效应减弱，基础设施投资（尤其是教育投资）的优势更大。根据我们基于新的实证估计的校准，基础设施投资和企业减税在“传统”经济体的教育投资中占主导地位。然而，在一个拥有机器人的经济体中，基础设施投资占企业减税的主导地位，而教育投资往往会产生最高的福利收益。

引用次数: 0

Solving DSGE models with incomplete markets by perturbation 用扰动法求解不完全市场DSGE模型

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-03-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101285

Guillermo Hausmann-Guil

DSGE models with incomplete markets (with one or many assets) are typically challenging to solve due to their lack of stable dynamics as risk goes to zero. To bypass this difficulty, I propose to first approximate the local dynamics of a tractable auxiliary model and then apply regular perturbation to some of the parameters to reach the model of interest. This method is easy to implement with available packages and allows researchers to solve a wide class of DSGE models around a large subset of the state-space while still relying on the implicit function theorems. Exploiting these properties, the paper develops a simple algorithm to find an auxiliary model whose deterministic steady state equals the stochastic steady state of the model of interest and builds the perturbation solution around this point. The lead application extends the two-period, multi-asset model of Coeurdacier and Gourinchas (2016, JME) to an infinite horizon setup. The calibrated model with bonds and equities delivers a large level of equity home bias and a natural link between trade and financial openness, with external asset positions comparable to the data. However, the model generates excessive risk-sharing and counterfactual co-movements of gross capital flows.

具有不完全市场（具有一个或多个资产）的DSGE模型通常具有挑战性，因为当风险趋于零时，它们缺乏稳定的动态。为了绕过这个困难，我建议首先近似一个可处理的辅助模型的局部动力学，然后对一些参数应用规则摄动以达到感兴趣的模型。这种方法很容易用可用的包实现，并且允许研究人员在仍然依赖隐函数定理的情况下，围绕状态空间的一个大子集求解广泛的DSGE模型。利用这些性质，本文开发了一种简单的算法来寻找辅助模型，该模型的确定性稳态等于目标模型的随机稳态，并建立了围绕该点的扰动解。主要应用将Coeurdacier和Gourinchas （2016， JME）的两期多资产模型扩展到无限视界设置。经过校准的债券和股票模型显示出很大程度的股票母国偏好，以及贸易与金融开放之间的自然联系，外部资产头寸与数据相当。然而，该模型产生了过度的风险分担和资本流动总额的反事实协同运动。

{"title":"Solving DSGE models with incomplete markets by perturbation","authors":"Guillermo Hausmann-Guil","doi":"10.1016/j.red.2025.101285","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.red.2025.101285","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>DSGE models with incomplete markets (with one or many assets) are typically challenging to solve due to their lack of stable dynamics as risk goes to zero. To bypass this difficulty, I propose to first approximate the local dynamics of a tractable auxiliary model and then apply regular perturbation to some of the parameters to reach the model of interest. This method is easy to implement with available packages and allows researchers to solve a wide class of DSGE models around a large subset of the state-space while still relying on the implicit function theorems. Exploiting these properties, the paper develops a simple algorithm to find an auxiliary model whose deterministic steady state equals the stochastic steady state of the model of interest and builds the perturbation solution around this point. The lead application extends the two-period, multi-asset model of <span><span>Coeurdacier and Gourinchas</span></span> (<span><span>2016</span></span>, JME) to an infinite horizon setup. The calibrated model with bonds and equities delivers a large level of equity home bias and a natural link between trade and financial openness, with external asset positions comparable to the data. However, the model generates excessive risk-sharing and counterfactual co-movements of gross capital flows.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":47890,"journal":{"name":"Review of Economic Dynamics","volume":"57 ","pages":"Article 101285"},"PeriodicalIF":2.3,"publicationDate":"2025-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143644114","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

The neoclassical model and the welfare costs of selection 新古典模型与选择的福利成本

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-03-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101284

Fabrice Collard , Omar Licandro

This paper embeds firm dynamics into the Neoclassical model in a framework with partially reversible capital and investment distortions, allowing for a simple characterization of the transitional dynamics of economies moving towards greater selection. At equilibrium, aggregate technology is Neoclassical, with the quality of capital and the depreciation rate depending on selection. As investment distortions are corrected, selection increases, and both output per capita and welfare rise at the steady state. However, selection destroys existing production capacities, leading to transitional welfare losses. When calibrated to the US, the model shows that developing countries reducing investment distortions to US levels would experience substantial steady-state welfare gains, though transitional costs could absorb 70% to 76% of these gains. While the associated welfare gains from selection at steady-state are significant, between 10% and 23%, transitional costs largely offset these additional welfare gains.

本文在资本和投资扭曲部分可逆的框架下，将企业动态嵌入到新古典主义模型中，从而可以简单地描述经济向更大选择过渡的动态。在均衡状态下，总技术是新古典主义的，资本的质量和折旧率取决于选择。随着投资扭曲得到纠正，选择增加，人均产出和福利都在稳定状态下上升。然而，选择破坏了现有的生产能力，导致过渡性福利损失。当将其调整到美国时，该模型显示，将投资扭曲程度降低到美国水平的发展中国家将获得可观的稳态福利收益，尽管过渡成本可能会吸收这些收益的70%至76%。虽然在稳定状态下选择的相关福利收益显著，在10%到23%之间，但过渡成本在很大程度上抵消了这些额外的福利收益。

引用次数: 0

Monetary policy over the lifecycle 整个生命周期的货币政策

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-02-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101274

R. Anton Braun , Daisuke Ikeda

We propose a quantitative model of monetary policy over the lifecycle with endogenous portfolio choices. Our model reproduces the average age profiles of asset portfolios, the empirical responses of aggregate variables, and the microeconomic responses of different age groups to a tightening in monetary policy. Households disagree about the benefits of a tighter monetary policy. Consumption and welfare of older age groups increase, but consumption and welfare of younger households fall.

本文提出了一个具有内生投资组合选择的货币政策生命周期定量模型。我们的模型再现了资产组合的平均年龄概况，总变量的经验反应，以及不同年龄组对货币政策收紧的微观经济反应。家庭对收紧货币政策的好处意见不一。老年群体的消费和福利增加，而年轻家庭的消费和福利下降。

引用次数: 0

Habit formation and news-driven business cycles 习惯形成和新闻驱动的商业周期

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-02-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101273

Fengqi Liu , Keqing Liu , Jianpo Xue

This paper demonstrates that, in a standard real business cycle (RBC) model, internal consumption habits alone are sufficient to generate positive comovements among key macroeconomic aggregates in response to news about future productivity. We highlight the prospective channel associated with internal habits, through which the effect of news shocks is transmitted to the present, stimulating current consumption, labor, and investment. Without this channel, other forms of preferences such as external habits fail to generate the positive comovements. The quantitative performance of the model is also discussed. Arguably, we provide a nearly minimal departure from the RBC framework to generate news-driven business cycles.

本文证明，在标准的实际商业周期（RBC）模型中，仅内部消费习惯就足以在关键宏观经济总量之间产生积极的运动，以响应有关未来生产率的新闻。我们强调了与内部习惯相关的预期渠道，通过该渠道，新闻冲击的影响传递到现在，刺激当前消费、劳动力和投资。没有这个渠道，其他形式的偏好，如外在习惯，就无法产生积极的运动。并对模型的定量性能进行了讨论。可以说，我们提供了几乎最小的偏离RBC框架，以产生新闻驱动的商业周期。

引用次数: 0

Public financing under balanced budget rules 平衡预算规则下的公共筹资

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-02-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101275

Minjie Deng , Chang Liu

This paper analyzes the impact of a balanced budget rule (BBR) on government financing costs and its implications for the government balance sheet. Exploiting the variation in BBR implementation across US states, we find that states with more stringent BBRs exhibit significantly lower bond spreads and credit default swap spreads, demonstrating the crucial role of default risk. A sovereign default model, which features long-term debt, endogenous investment and output, as well as a BBR, aligns with the empirical result. Calibrated to Illinois, our quantitative analysis suggests that implementing a BBR could dramatically decrease the state bond spread, gradually lower the debt, and improve welfare in the long run.

本文分析了平衡预算规则（BBR）对政府融资成本的影响及其对政府资产负债表的影响。利用美国各州BBR实施的差异，我们发现，BBR实施更严格的州，债券息差和信用违约互换息差明显更低，证明了违约风险的关键作用。以长期债务、内生投资和产出以及BBR为特征的主权违约模型与实证结果一致。以伊利诺伊州为例，我们的定量分析表明，实施BBR可以大幅降低国债息差，逐步降低债务，并从长远来看改善福利。

引用次数: 0

Worker-firm screening and the business cycle 工人-公司筛选和商业周期

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101272

Jake Bradley

To understand the co-movement of vacancies and employment, an equilibrium model with two-sided screening is developed. On one side of the market, both employed and unemployed workers can evaluate multiple job openings simultaneously and decide which ones to apply for. On the other side, firms assess multiple applicants and choose their preferred candidates. This model is calibrated to reflect the U.S. economy. Consistent with data, the model generates significant volatility in vacancies, unemployment, and labor market flows over the business cycle. Moreover, differences in the search behaviors of employed and unemployed workers offer a theoretical explanation for the shift in the Beveridge curve observed after the 2008 recession.

为了理解职位空缺和就业的共同运动，建立了一个双边筛选的均衡模型。在市场的一边，就业者和失业者都可以同时评估多个职位空缺，并决定申请哪一个。另一方面，公司评估多个申请人并选择他们喜欢的候选人。这个模型经过校准以反映美国经济。与数据一致，该模型在商业周期中产生了空缺、失业和劳动力市场流动的显著波动。此外，就业工人和失业工人在寻找行为上的差异，为2008年经济衰退后观察到的贝弗里奇曲线的移动提供了理论解释。

引用次数: 0

Does the added worker effect matter? 额外的工人效应重要吗？

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101271

Nezih Guner , Yuliya A. Kulikova , Arnau Valladares-Esteban

In the US, the likelihood of a married woman entering the labor force in a given month increases by 60% if her husband loses his job, known as the added worker effect. However, only 1.5% to 3.5% of married women entering the labor force in a given month can be added workers. This raises the question of whether the added worker effect can significantly impact aggregate labor market outcomes. Building on Shimer (2012), we introduce a new methodology to evaluate how joint transitions of married couples across labor market states affect aggregate participation, employment, and unemployment rates. Our results show that the added worker effect significantly impacts aggregate outcomes, increasing married women's participation and employment by 0.72 and 0.65 percentage points each month. Additionally, the added worker effect reduces the cyclicality of married women's participation and unemployment, lowering the correlation between GDP's cyclical components and participation by 4.5 percentage points and unemployment by 8 percentage points.

在美国，如果已婚妇女的丈夫失业，她在一个月内加入劳动力大军的可能性会增加60%，这被称为“额外工人效应”。但是，当月进入劳动力市场的已婚女性中，只有1.5% ~ 3.5%的人可以增加劳动力。这就提出了一个问题，即增加的工人效应是否会显著影响劳动力市场的总体结果。在Shimer（2012）的基础上，我们引入了一种新的方法来评估劳动力市场各州已婚夫妇的共同过渡如何影响总体参与率、就业和失业率。我们的研究结果表明，增加的工人效应显著影响了总体结果，已婚妇女的参与率和就业率每月分别提高0.72和0.65个百分点。此外，额外的工人效应降低了已婚妇女参与和失业的周期性，使GDP的周期性成分与参与和失业之间的相关性降低了4.5个百分点和8个百分点。

引用次数: 0

Family policies and child skill accumulation 家庭政策与儿童技能积累

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101270

Emily G. Moschini , Monica Tran-Xuan

We analyze the economic effects of two major family policies in the United States, the Child Tax Credit and the Child Care and Development Fund childcare subsidy, in an overlapping generations framework where altruistic parents invest in their child's skill using their own time and purchased childcare time. The model incorporates differences in the design of these policies and endogenizes low rates of childcare subsidy receipt by including application costs and subsequent rationing. We compare the effects of a recent child tax credit expansion with a spending-equivalent expansion of the childcare subsidy implemented by reducing access frictions. Across steady states, the childcare subsidy expansion generates a larger increase in average adult skill, which leads to larger welfare gains behind the veil of ignorance compared to the tax credit expansion. However, the two policies yield similar average welfare gains for adults who know their own skill level, and the tax credit benefits a larger share of this group.

我们分析了美国两项主要家庭政策的经济影响，儿童税收抵免和儿童保育和发展基金儿童保育补贴，在代际重叠的框架下，无私的父母利用自己的时间和购买的儿童保育时间投资于孩子的技能。该模型结合了这些政策设计上的差异，并通过纳入申请成本和随后的配给来内化低托儿补贴收费率。我们比较了最近儿童税收抵免的扩大与通过减少准入摩擦实现的儿童保育补贴的同等支出扩大的影响。在稳定状态下，儿童保育补贴的扩大使成年人平均技能的提高幅度更大，与税收抵免的扩大相比，这在无知之幕背后带来了更大的福利收益。然而，对于了解自己技能水平的成年人来说，这两项政策带来的平均福利收益相似，而且税收抵免对这一群体的好处更大。

引用次数: 0

A multisector perspective on wage stagnation 工资停滞的多部门视角

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.101269

L. Rachel Ngai , Orhun Sevinc

Low-skill workers are concentrated in sectors experiencing fast productivity growth, yet their real wages have stagnated and lagged behind aggregate productivity. We provide evidence demonstrating the importance of a multisector perspective. Central to our mechanism is the decline in the relative price of the low-skill intensive sector driven by its faster productivity growth. This dampens wage gains for low-skill workers by lowering the price of their output relative to their consumption basket, which is further reinforced by shifting them into the sector where less weight is placed on their labor. We calibrate the two-sector model to the 1980–2010 U.S. economy and find this mechanism to be quantitatively important. Our counterfactual analysis reveals that low-skill real wage growth would have nearly doubled if the observed aggregate productivity growth had been evenly distributed across sectors.

低技能工人集中在生产率快速增长的行业，但他们的实际工资却停滞不前，落后于总生产率。我们提供证据证明多部门视角的重要性。我们的机制的核心是低技能密集型部门的相对价格下降，这是由其更快的生产率增长所驱动的。这降低了低技能工人的产出相对于其消费篮子的价格，从而抑制了他们的工资增长，而将他们转移到对其劳动力不那么重视的行业，则进一步加强了这种增长。我们将双部门模型校准到1980-2010年的美国经济，发现这一机制在数量上是重要的。我们的反事实分析表明，如果观察到的总生产率增长在各个部门之间均匀分布，低技能的实际工资增长将几乎翻倍。

引用次数: 0

首页上一页

下一页尾页

类型

全部化学•材料生命科学医学物理工程技术环境•农林材料科学地球科学法学管理学化学环境科学与生态学计算机科学教育学经济学农林科学人文科学生物学数学物理与天体物理心理学综合性期刊其他工业工程理学历史学农学文学信息工程

数据库

全部 ACS Publications Elsevier ieeexplore Springer The Royal Society of Chemistry Wiley

期刊

Review of Economic Dynamics

全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.

﹀