Review of Economic Dynamics最新文献

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Monetary policy over the lifecycle 整个生命周期的货币政策

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101274

R. Anton Braun , Daisuke Ikeda

We propose a quantitative model of monetary policy over the lifecycle with endogenous portfolio choices. Our model reproduces the average age profiles of asset portfolios, the empirical responses of aggregate variables, and the microeconomic responses of different age groups to a tightening in monetary policy. Households disagree about the benefits of a tighter monetary policy. Consumption and welfare of older age groups increase, but consumption and welfare of younger households fall.

本文提出了一个具有内生投资组合选择的货币政策生命周期定量模型。我们的模型再现了资产组合的平均年龄概况，总变量的经验反应，以及不同年龄组对货币政策收紧的微观经济反应。家庭对收紧货币政策的好处意见不一。老年群体的消费和福利增加，而年轻家庭的消费和福利下降。

引用次数: 0

Monetary policy stabilization in a new Keynesian model under climate change 气候变化下新凯恩斯主义模型中的货币政策稳定问题

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.101260

George Economides , Anastasios Xepapadeas

We address the question of whether monetary policy is affected by the detrimental impact of climate change on an economy's productivity and, if so, whether policymakers should take it into account when designing policies to stabilize the business cycle. To do this, we develop a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a closed economy which incorporates a climate module that interacts with the economy. In this framework, monetary authorities choose the nominal interest rate on government bonds. The model is solved numerically using parameter values calibrated to the US economy. Our results, which are robust to both extensions and a large number of sensitivity checks, suggest non-trivial implications for the design of optimal monetary policy irrespectively of whether the shocks hitting the economy are standard economic shocks, climate shocks, or shocks to the price of energy.

我们要探讨的问题是：货币政策是否会受到气候变化对经济生产力的不利影响；如果会，决策者在制定稳定商业周期的政策时是否应将其考虑在内。为此，我们建立了一个封闭经济的新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型，其中包含一个与经济相互作用的气候模块。在此框架下，货币当局选择政府债券的名义利率。该模型使用根据美国经济校准的参数值进行数值求解。无论冲击经济的是标准经济冲击、气候冲击还是能源价格冲击，我们的结果都对最优货币政策的设计产生了非同小可的影响。

引用次数: 0

Aggregate fluctuations and the role of trade credit 总量波动和贸易信贷的作用

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.101258

Lin Shao

This paper studies the aggregate implications of trade credit in a dynamic, general equilibrium model where heterogeneous entrepreneurs choose their lending and borrowing of trade credit in the presence of financial frictions. Motivated by empirical evidence, the model shows how trade credit flows from less constrained firms to more constrained ones, both in the cross-sectional distribution and in firms' response to heterogeneous financial shocks. In the face of an aggregate financial shock, entrepreneurs reduce their trade credit lending, further tightening their customers' borrowing constraints, resulting in an amplification of the initial shock. In contrast, when the financial shock only affects some, but not all, entrepreneurs, trade credit facilitates the flow of financing to entrepreneurs in financial distress, thereby mitigating its negative impacts. This mechanism, however, is only effective when the shock affects a sufficiently small number of entrepreneurs.

本文在一个动态的一般均衡模型中研究了贸易信贷的总体影响，在该模型中，异质企业家在金融摩擦的情况下选择贸易信贷的借贷。受经验证据的启发，该模型展示了贸易信贷如何从约束较少的企业流向约束较多的企业，这既体现在横截面分布上，也体现在企业对异质性金融冲击的反应上。面对总体金融冲击，企业家会减少贸易信贷借贷，进一步收紧客户的借贷约束，从而导致初始冲击的放大。相反，当金融冲击只影响部分而非全部企业家时，贸易信贷会促进资金流向陷入财务困境的企业家，从而减轻其负面影响。然而，只有当冲击影响到足够少的企业家时，这种机制才会有效。

引用次数: 0

Habit formation and news-driven business cycles 习惯形成和新闻驱动的商业周期

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101273

Fengqi Liu , Keqing Liu , Jianpo Xue

This paper demonstrates that, in a standard real business cycle (RBC) model, internal consumption habits alone are sufficient to generate positive comovements among key macroeconomic aggregates in response to news about future productivity. We highlight the prospective channel associated with internal habits, through which the effect of news shocks is transmitted to the present, stimulating current consumption, labor, and investment. Without this channel, other forms of preferences such as external habits fail to generate the positive comovements. The quantitative performance of the model is also discussed. Arguably, we provide a nearly minimal departure from the RBC framework to generate news-driven business cycles.

本文证明，在标准的实际商业周期（RBC）模型中，仅内部消费习惯就足以在关键宏观经济总量之间产生积极的运动，以响应有关未来生产率的新闻。我们强调了与内部习惯相关的预期渠道，通过该渠道，新闻冲击的影响传递到现在，刺激当前消费、劳动力和投资。没有这个渠道，其他形式的偏好，如外在习惯，就无法产生积极的运动。并对模型的定量性能进行了讨论。可以说，我们提供了几乎最小的偏离RBC框架，以产生新闻驱动的商业周期。

引用次数: 0

Public financing under balanced budget rules 平衡预算规则下的公共筹资

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101275

Minjie Deng , Chang Liu

This paper analyzes the impact of a balanced budget rule (BBR) on government financing costs and its implications for the government balance sheet. Exploiting the variation in BBR implementation across US states, we find that states with more stringent BBRs exhibit significantly lower bond spreads and credit default swap spreads, demonstrating the crucial role of default risk. A sovereign default model, which features long-term debt, endogenous investment and output, as well as a BBR, aligns with the empirical result. Calibrated to Illinois, our quantitative analysis suggests that implementing a BBR could dramatically decrease the state bond spread, gradually lower the debt, and improve welfare in the long run.

本文分析了平衡预算规则（BBR）对政府融资成本的影响及其对政府资产负债表的影响。利用美国各州BBR实施的差异，我们发现，BBR实施更严格的州，债券息差和信用违约互换息差明显更低，证明了违约风险的关键作用。以长期债务、内生投资和产出以及BBR为特征的主权违约模型与实证结果一致。以伊利诺伊州为例，我们的定量分析表明，实施BBR可以大幅降低国债息差，逐步降低债务，并从长远来看改善福利。

引用次数: 0

Unconventional monetary and fiscal policy 非常规货币和财政政策

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.101259

Jing Cynthia Wu , Yinxi Xie

We build a tractable New Keynesian model to jointly study four types of monetary and fiscal policy. We find quantitative easing (QE) and tax-financed fiscal transfers or government spending have similar effects on the aggregate economy. Compared with these three policies, conventional monetary policy is more inflationary. QE and transfers have redistribution consequences, whereas others do not. Ricardian equivalence breaks: tax-financed fiscal policy is more stimulative than debt-financed policy. Finally, we study optimal policy coordination and find that adjusting two types of policy instruments can stabilize three targets simultaneously: inflation, the aggregate output gap, and cross-sectional consumption dispersion.

我们建立了一个可操作的新凯恩斯主义模型，来共同研究四种类型的货币和财政政策。我们发现量化宽松（QE）和税收资助的财政转移支付或政府支出对总体经济的影响相似。与这三种政策相比，传统的货币政策更容易引发通货膨胀。量化宽松和转移支付会产生再分配的后果，而其他政策则不会。李嘉图等价关系被打破：税收资助的财政政策比债务资助的政策更具刺激性。最后，我们研究了最优政策协调，发现调整两类政策工具可以同时稳定三个目标：通货膨胀、总产出缺口和横截面消费离散。

引用次数: 0

A multisector perspective on wage stagnation 工资停滞的多部门视角

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-04-01 Epub Date: 2024-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.101269

L. Rachel Ngai , Orhun Sevinc

Low-skill workers are concentrated in sectors experiencing fast productivity growth, yet their real wages have stagnated and lagged behind aggregate productivity. We provide evidence demonstrating the importance of a multisector perspective. Central to our mechanism is the decline in the relative price of the low-skill intensive sector driven by its faster productivity growth. This dampens wage gains for low-skill workers by lowering the price of their output relative to their consumption basket, which is further reinforced by shifting them into the sector where less weight is placed on their labor. We calibrate the two-sector model to the 1980–2010 U.S. economy and find this mechanism to be quantitatively important. Our counterfactual analysis reveals that low-skill real wage growth would have nearly doubled if the observed aggregate productivity growth had been evenly distributed across sectors.

低技能工人集中在生产率快速增长的行业，但他们的实际工资却停滞不前，落后于总生产率。我们提供证据证明多部门视角的重要性。我们的机制的核心是低技能密集型部门的相对价格下降，这是由其更快的生产率增长所驱动的。这降低了低技能工人的产出相对于其消费篮子的价格，从而抑制了他们的工资增长，而将他们转移到对其劳动力不那么重视的行业，则进一步加强了这种增长。我们将双部门模型校准到1980-2010年的美国经济，发现这一机制在数量上是重要的。我们的反事实分析表明，如果观察到的总生产率增长在各个部门之间均匀分布，低技能的实际工资增长将几乎翻倍。

引用次数: 0

Home construction financing and search frictions in the housing market 住房市场中的住房建设融资和搜索摩擦

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.101253

Miroslav Gabrovski , Victor Ortego-Marti

This paper studies the effects of financial frictions in construction on housing market dynamics. To this end, we build a search-theoretic model of the housing market in which there is endogenous entry of buyers and developers face credit constraints. We capture credit frictions by assuming that developers must search for financing before building a home à la Wasmer and Weil (2004). Our model explores a novel channel that links credit frictions faced by developers to the housing market. We calibrate the model to quantify the size of the credit channel during the 2012–2019 housing market recovery. Through a series of counterfactuals, our model predicts that the credit channel had a large impact on housing liquidity, construction, and the vacancy rate. Furthermore, it accounts for around half of the rise in prices during the 2012-2019 housing market recovery.

本文研究了建筑业的金融摩擦对住房市场动态的影响。为此，我们建立了一个住房市场的搜索理论模型，在这个模型中，购房者存在内生性进入，开发商面临信贷约束。我们假定开发商在建造房屋之前必须寻找融资，从而捕捉信贷摩擦，这一点与 Wasmer 和 Weil（2004 年）的研究类似。我们的模型探索了一个将开发商面临的信贷摩擦与住房市场联系起来的新渠道。我们对模型进行了校准，以量化 2012-2019 年房地产市场复苏期间信贷渠道的规模。通过一系列反事实分析，我们的模型预测信贷渠道对住房流动性、建设和空置率有很大影响。此外，在 2012-2019 年房地产市场复苏期间，信贷渠道约占房价上涨的一半。

引用次数: 0

Migration spillovers within families: Evidence from Thailand 家庭内部的移民溢出效应：泰国的证据

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-10-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.101255

Travis Baseler

When a person migrates, are their family members more likely to migrate too? I estimate the causal impact of family migrant network size on migration decisions using household survey data from rural Thailand. Large but temporary labor demand shocks in a nearby city—originating from a national infrastructure program—provide plausibly exogenous variation in family members' migration decisions based on their ages at the time of the program. Among those too young to be directly impacted by the program, I find that each older family migrant increases their migration probability by about 5 percentage points. Further analysis suggests a role for better information about the destination in driving this impact. My findings imply that the short-run benefits of relieving migration constraints can underestimate the long-run benefits due to spillovers within the household.

一个人移民后，其家庭成员是否也更有可能移民？我利用泰国农村的家庭调查数据估算了家庭移民网络规模对移民决策的因果影响。附近城市巨大但暂时的劳动力需求冲击源于一项国家基础设施计划，它根据家庭成员在该计划实施时的年龄，为家庭成员的移民决策提供了看似外生的变化。在那些因年龄太小而无法直接受到该计划影响的人中，我发现每一个年龄较大的家庭移民都会使其移民概率增加约 5 个百分点。进一步的分析表明，更好的目的地信息对这一影响起到了推动作用。我的研究结果表明，由于家庭内部的溢出效应，缓解移民限制的短期收益可能会低估长期收益。

引用次数: 0

Monetary non-neutrality in a multisector economy: The role of risk-sharing 多部门经济中的货币非中立性：风险分担的作用

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.101241

Jae Won Lee , Seunghyeon Lee

We show that the degree of risk-sharing among heterogeneous workers is a key determinant of monetary non-neutrality in a multisector sticky-price model. In this framework, workers are employed across different sectors, earning distinct wages. The limited ability of workers to fully insure against labor income risks results in strategic complementarity in firms' price-setting decisions with respect to aggregate shocks and strategic substitutability with respect to idiosyncratic shocks. These pricing interactions lead to sluggish adjustments of the price level in response to monetary and other aggregate shocks, causing significant fluctuations in the output gap while maintaining large responses of individual prices to idiosyncratic shocks. We illustrate these results across three stylized asset market scenarios: complete markets, non-contingent bond-only markets, and financial autarky.

我们的研究表明，在多部门粘性价格模型中，异质工人之间的风险分担程度是决定货币非中性的关键因素。在这一框架中，工人受雇于不同部门，赚取不同的工资。工人完全防范劳动收入风险的能力有限，这就导致企业的定价决策在面对总体冲击时具有战略互补性，而在面对特殊冲击时具有战略替代性。这些定价互动导致价格水平对货币和其他总体冲击的反应迟缓，造成产出缺口的大幅波动，同时保持单个价格对特异性冲击的大幅反应。我们通过三种风格化的资产市场情景来说明这些结果：完全市场、无条件纯债券市场和金融自给自足。

引用次数: 0

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