Review of Economic Dynamics最新文献

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Does the added worker effect matter? 额外的工人效应重要吗？

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-02-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101271

Nezih Guner , Yuliya A. Kulikova , Arnau Valladares-Esteban

In the US, the likelihood of a married woman entering the labor force in a given month increases by 60% if her husband loses his job, known as the added worker effect. However, only 1.5% to 3.5% of married women entering the labor force in a given month can be added workers. This raises the question of whether the added worker effect can significantly impact aggregate labor market outcomes. Building on Shimer (2012), we introduce a new methodology to evaluate how joint transitions of married couples across labor market states affect aggregate participation, employment, and unemployment rates. Our results show that the added worker effect significantly impacts aggregate outcomes, increasing married women's participation and employment by 0.72 and 0.65 percentage points each month. Additionally, the added worker effect reduces the cyclicality of married women's participation and unemployment, lowering the correlation between GDP's cyclical components and participation by 4.5 percentage points and unemployment by 8 percentage points.

在美国，如果已婚妇女的丈夫失业，她在一个月内加入劳动力大军的可能性会增加60%，这被称为“额外工人效应”。但是，当月进入劳动力市场的已婚女性中，只有1.5% ~ 3.5%的人可以增加劳动力。这就提出了一个问题，即增加的工人效应是否会显著影响劳动力市场的总体结果。在Shimer（2012）的基础上，我们引入了一种新的方法来评估劳动力市场各州已婚夫妇的共同过渡如何影响总体参与率、就业和失业率。我们的研究结果表明，增加的工人效应显著影响了总体结果，已婚妇女的参与率和就业率每月分别提高0.72和0.65个百分点。此外，额外的工人效应降低了已婚妇女参与和失业的周期性，使GDP的周期性成分与参与和失业之间的相关性降低了4.5个百分点和8个百分点。

引用次数: 0

Family policies and child skill accumulation 家庭政策与儿童技能积累

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2025-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2025.101270

Emily G. Moschini , Monica Tran-Xuan

We analyze the economic effects of two major family policies in the United States, the Child Tax Credit and the Child Care and Development Fund childcare subsidy, in an overlapping generations framework where altruistic parents invest in their child's skill using their own time and purchased childcare time. The model incorporates differences in the design of these policies and endogenizes low rates of childcare subsidy receipt by including application costs and subsequent rationing. We compare the effects of a recent child tax credit expansion with a spending-equivalent expansion of the childcare subsidy implemented by reducing access frictions. Across steady states, the childcare subsidy expansion generates a larger increase in average adult skill, which leads to larger welfare gains behind the veil of ignorance compared to the tax credit expansion. However, the two policies yield similar average welfare gains for adults who know their own skill level, and the tax credit benefits a larger share of this group.

我们分析了美国两项主要家庭政策的经济影响，儿童税收抵免和儿童保育和发展基金儿童保育补贴，在代际重叠的框架下，无私的父母利用自己的时间和购买的儿童保育时间投资于孩子的技能。该模型结合了这些政策设计上的差异，并通过纳入申请成本和随后的配给来内化低托儿补贴收费率。我们比较了最近儿童税收抵免的扩大与通过减少准入摩擦实现的儿童保育补贴的同等支出扩大的影响。在稳定状态下，儿童保育补贴的扩大使成年人平均技能的提高幅度更大，与税收抵免的扩大相比，这在无知之幕背后带来了更大的福利收益。然而，对于了解自己技能水平的成年人来说，这两项政策带来的平均福利收益相似，而且税收抵免对这一群体的好处更大。

引用次数: 0

A multisector perspective on wage stagnation 工资停滞的多部门视角

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.101269

L. Rachel Ngai , Orhun Sevinc

Low-skill workers are concentrated in sectors experiencing fast productivity growth, yet their real wages have stagnated and lagged behind aggregate productivity. We provide evidence demonstrating the importance of a multisector perspective. Central to our mechanism is the decline in the relative price of the low-skill intensive sector driven by its faster productivity growth. This dampens wage gains for low-skill workers by lowering the price of their output relative to their consumption basket, which is further reinforced by shifting them into the sector where less weight is placed on their labor. We calibrate the two-sector model to the 1980–2010 U.S. economy and find this mechanism to be quantitatively important. Our counterfactual analysis reveals that low-skill real wage growth would have nearly doubled if the observed aggregate productivity growth had been evenly distributed across sectors.

低技能工人集中在生产率快速增长的行业，但他们的实际工资却停滞不前，落后于总生产率。我们提供证据证明多部门视角的重要性。我们的机制的核心是低技能密集型部门的相对价格下降，这是由其更快的生产率增长所驱动的。这降低了低技能工人的产出相对于其消费篮子的价格，从而抑制了他们的工资增长，而将他们转移到对其劳动力不那么重视的行业，则进一步加强了这种增长。我们将双部门模型校准到1980-2010年的美国经济，发现这一机制在数量上是重要的。我们的反事实分析表明，如果观察到的总生产率增长在各个部门之间均匀分布，低技能的实际工资增长将几乎翻倍。

引用次数: 0

Capitalization of intellectual property products does not explain the decline in the labor share 知识产权产品的资本化并不能解释劳动收入占比的下降

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.101268

Simcha Barkai , Suresh Nallareddy , Maria Ogneva

We reevaluate the role of the capitalization of Intellectual Property Products (IPP) in the decline in the labor share. Using the same aggregate U.S. data as Koh et al. (2020), we show that the labor share has clearly declined in recent decades and that this decline does not depend on the capitalization of IPP. The approach of KSLZ, which estimates a linear time trend for the period 1929–2018, conflates a gradual and long-run increase in IPP investment with a decline in the labor share in recent decades. In addition, in both aggregate and industry data, we show that the increase in the rate of IPP investment is nearly fully offset by depreciation. As a consequence, the labor share of net value added and its decline in recent decades are insensitive to IPP capitalization.

我们重新评估了知识产权产品资本化（IPP）在劳动收入占比下降中的作用。使用与Koh等人（2020）相同的美国汇总数据，我们表明，近几十年来，劳动收入占比明显下降，而且这种下降并不取决于IPP的资本化。KSLZ的方法估计了1929年至2018年期间的线性时间趋势，将IPP投资的逐步长期增长与近几十年来劳动收入占比的下降混为一谈。此外，在总体和行业数据中，我们都表明，IPP投资率的增长几乎完全被折旧所抵消。因此，净增加值的劳动份额及其近几十年来的下降对IPP资本化不敏感。

引用次数: 0

Monetary policy stabilization in a new Keynesian model under climate change 气候变化下新凯恩斯主义模型中的货币政策稳定问题

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-11-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.101260

George Economides , Anastasios Xepapadeas

We address the question of whether monetary policy is affected by the detrimental impact of climate change on an economy's productivity and, if so, whether policymakers should take it into account when designing policies to stabilize the business cycle. To do this, we develop a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a closed economy which incorporates a climate module that interacts with the economy. In this framework, monetary authorities choose the nominal interest rate on government bonds. The model is solved numerically using parameter values calibrated to the US economy. Our results, which are robust to both extensions and a large number of sensitivity checks, suggest non-trivial implications for the design of optimal monetary policy irrespectively of whether the shocks hitting the economy are standard economic shocks, climate shocks, or shocks to the price of energy.

我们要探讨的问题是：货币政策是否会受到气候变化对经济生产力的不利影响；如果会，决策者在制定稳定商业周期的政策时是否应将其考虑在内。为此，我们建立了一个封闭经济的新凯恩斯动态随机一般均衡模型，其中包含一个与经济相互作用的气候模块。在此框架下，货币当局选择政府债券的名义利率。该模型使用根据美国经济校准的参数值进行数值求解。无论冲击经济的是标准经济冲击、气候冲击还是能源价格冲击，我们的结果都对最优货币政策的设计产生了非同小可的影响。

引用次数: 0

Aggregate fluctuations and the role of trade credit 总量波动和贸易信贷的作用

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.101258

Lin Shao

This paper studies the aggregate implications of trade credit in a dynamic, general equilibrium model where heterogeneous entrepreneurs choose their lending and borrowing of trade credit in the presence of financial frictions. Motivated by empirical evidence, the model shows how trade credit flows from less constrained firms to more constrained ones, both in the cross-sectional distribution and in firms' response to heterogeneous financial shocks. In the face of an aggregate financial shock, entrepreneurs reduce their trade credit lending, further tightening their customers' borrowing constraints, resulting in an amplification of the initial shock. In contrast, when the financial shock only affects some, but not all, entrepreneurs, trade credit facilitates the flow of financing to entrepreneurs in financial distress, thereby mitigating its negative impacts. This mechanism, however, is only effective when the shock affects a sufficiently small number of entrepreneurs.

本文在一个动态的一般均衡模型中研究了贸易信贷的总体影响，在该模型中，异质企业家在金融摩擦的情况下选择贸易信贷的借贷。受经验证据的启发，该模型展示了贸易信贷如何从约束较少的企业流向约束较多的企业，这既体现在横截面分布上，也体现在企业对异质性金融冲击的反应上。面对总体金融冲击，企业家会减少贸易信贷借贷，进一步收紧客户的借贷约束，从而导致初始冲击的放大。相反，当金融冲击只影响部分而非全部企业家时，贸易信贷会促进资金流向陷入财务困境的企业家，从而减轻其负面影响。然而，只有当冲击影响到足够少的企业家时，这种机制才会有效。

引用次数: 0

Unconventional monetary and fiscal policy 非常规货币和财政政策

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-11-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.101259

Jing Cynthia Wu , Yinxi Xie

We build a tractable New Keynesian model to jointly study four types of monetary and fiscal policy. We find quantitative easing (QE) and tax-financed fiscal transfers or government spending have similar effects on the aggregate economy. Compared with these three policies, conventional monetary policy is more inflationary. QE and transfers have redistribution consequences, whereas others do not. Ricardian equivalence breaks: tax-financed fiscal policy is more stimulative than debt-financed policy. Finally, we study optimal policy coordination and find that adjusting two types of policy instruments can stabilize three targets simultaneously: inflation, the aggregate output gap, and cross-sectional consumption dispersion.

我们建立了一个可操作的新凯恩斯主义模型，来共同研究四种类型的货币和财政政策。我们发现量化宽松（QE）和税收资助的财政转移支付或政府支出对总体经济的影响相似。与这三种政策相比，传统的货币政策更容易引发通货膨胀。量化宽松和转移支付会产生再分配的后果，而其他政策则不会。李嘉图等价关系被打破：税收资助的财政政策比债务资助的政策更具刺激性。最后，我们研究了最优政策协调，发现调整两类政策工具可以同时稳定三个目标：通货膨胀、总产出缺口和横截面消费离散。

引用次数: 0

Means-tested programs and interstate migration in the United States 美国的经济情况调查计划和州际移民

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.101256

Álvaro Jáñez

This paper quantifies the impact of means-tested programs – in particular, Medicaid and Public Housing – on the interstate mobility of their beneficiaries. Simulations from a structural model with heterogeneous workers and locations show that beneficiaries' mobility falls by 17.2 percent, with the greatest reduction occurring among the poorest beneficiaries. Around half of this effect stems from the lack of federal coordination in the programs' administrations, namely, the possibility that a moving beneficiary loses transfers despite being eligible for them. A policy that eliminates this risk raises overall welfare, with 5 percent of low-income households enjoying a welfare gain of 1.1 percent.

本文量化了经济情况调查项目--尤其是医疗补助和公共住房--对其受益人州际流动性的影响。一个具有异质性工人和地点的结构模型模拟显示，受益人的流动性下降了 17.2%，其中最贫困的受益人的流动性下降幅度最大。这种影响的一半左右源于联邦在项目管理上缺乏协调，即流动的受益人尽管有资格享受转移支付，但仍有可能失去转移支付。消除这种风险的政策会提高整体福利，5% 的低收入家庭会享受到 1.1% 的福利增长。

引用次数: 0

Home construction financing and search frictions in the housing market 住房市场中的住房建设融资和搜索摩擦

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.101253

Miroslav Gabrovski , Victor Ortego-Marti

This paper studies the effects of financial frictions in construction on housing market dynamics. To this end, we build a search-theoretic model of the housing market in which there is endogenous entry of buyers and developers face credit constraints. We capture credit frictions by assuming that developers must search for financing before building a home à la Wasmer and Weil (2004). Our model explores a novel channel that links credit frictions faced by developers to the housing market. We calibrate the model to quantify the size of the credit channel during the 2012–2019 housing market recovery. Through a series of counterfactuals, our model predicts that the credit channel had a large impact on housing liquidity, construction, and the vacancy rate. Furthermore, it accounts for around half of the rise in prices during the 2012-2019 housing market recovery.

本文研究了建筑业的金融摩擦对住房市场动态的影响。为此，我们建立了一个住房市场的搜索理论模型，在这个模型中，购房者存在内生性进入，开发商面临信贷约束。我们假定开发商在建造房屋之前必须寻找融资，从而捕捉信贷摩擦，这一点与 Wasmer 和 Weil（2004 年）的研究类似。我们的模型探索了一个将开发商面临的信贷摩擦与住房市场联系起来的新渠道。我们对模型进行了校准，以量化 2012-2019 年房地产市场复苏期间信贷渠道的规模。通过一系列反事实分析，我们的模型预测信贷渠道对住房流动性、建设和空置率有很大影响。此外，在 2012-2019 年房地产市场复苏期间，信贷渠道约占房价上涨的一半。

引用次数: 0

A job ladder model of executive compensation 高管薪酬的职位阶梯模式

IF 2.3 3区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Review of Economic Dynamics

Pub Date : 2024-11-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2024.101257

Bo Hu

This paper examines the impact of managerial labor market competition on executive incentive contracts. I develop a dynamic contracting model that incorporates moral hazard, search frictions, and poaching offers. The model generates a job ladder along which executives can either use outside offers to renegotiate with the current firm or transition to outside firms. I show that poaching offers generate a new source of incentives, which explains a novel empirical finding whereby larger firms give executives a higher proportion of incentive compensation.

本文探讨了经理人劳动力市场竞争对高管激励合同的影响。我建立了一个包含道德风险、搜索摩擦和挖角提议的动态契约模型。该模型产生了一个职位阶梯，高管们可以沿着这个阶梯利用外部要约与当前公司重新谈判，或者过渡到外部公司。我的研究表明，"挖角 "会产生新的激励来源，这就解释了一个新的经验发现，即规模较大的公司会给予高管更高比例的激励报酬。

引用次数: 0

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