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Buying into new ideas: the ECB’s evolving justification of unlimited liquidity 购买新理念:欧洲央行不断演变的无限流动性理由
IF 3.7 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-04-03 DOI: 10.1093/ser/mwae005
Casimir Hesse, Lea Steininger
In 2012, Draghi put an end to rising euro area sovereign bond yield spreads by resolving to do ‘whatever it takes’. The crisis rhetoric and institutional practices of unlimited liquidity have since become commonplace, as countermeasures to recent market turmoil show. This article sets out to explain how and why ‘unlimited liquidity’ ideas moved to the ECB’s center of economic analysis during the euro crisis. Previous work fails to decipher that the ideational shift was highly anomalous when viewed against German ordoliberalism or scholarly support for ‘expansionary austerity’. Addressing this relative neglect in other accounts, we draw on qualitative text analysis and expert interviews to argue that this shift was due to norm entrepreneurs who capitalized on the uncertainty of the crisis. We employ constructivist arguments to identify four scoping conditions that account for the ascendance of ‘unlimited liquidity’: an indicative reference, credibility, institutional positioning and—as an extension to the literature—intellectual sensitivity. Our analysis suggests that the euro crisis changed economic ideas, and fundamentally remodels the constructivist framework for studying monetary policy in crisis times.
2012 年,德拉吉决心 "不惜一切代价",结束了欧元区主权债券收益率利差不断上升的局面。从那时起,无限流动性的危机言论和制度实践就变得司空见惯,近期市场动荡的应对措施就说明了这一点。本文旨在解释 "无限流动性 "理念如何以及为何在欧债危机期间成为欧洲央行的经济分析中心。以往的研究未能解读出,与德国的秩序自由主义或学者对 "扩张性紧缩 "的支持相比,这一思想转变是非常反常的。针对其他论述中的这一相对忽视,我们利用定性文本分析和专家访谈来论证这一转变是由于规范企业家利用了危机的不确定性。我们运用建构主义的论点,确定了 "无限流动性 "兴起的四个范围条件:指示性参考、可信度、机构定位以及--作为文献的延伸--知识敏感性。我们的分析表明,欧元危机改变了经济观念,并从根本上重塑了研究危机时期货币政策的建构主义框架。
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引用次数: 0
How do countries shift their export specialization? The role of technological capabilities and industrial policy in Ireland, Spain and Sweden (1995–2018) 国家如何转变出口专业化?爱尔兰、西班牙和瑞典的技术能力和产业政策的作用(1995-2018 年)
IF 3.7 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-04-03 DOI: 10.1093/ser/mwae010
Guendalina Anzolin, Chiara Benassi
This article contributes to the Comparative Political Economy discourse on countries’ export specialization transitions. While current growth model literature often highlights producer coalitions’ influence, we present a complementary perspective emphasizing industrial policies. These policies, we argue, are not solely shaped by politics but are also deeply influenced by sectoral technological capabilities. By strategically engaging in both demand and supply-side sectoral innovation processes, industrial policies deepen existing technological capabilities with spillover effects into new sectors or foster new sector-specific capabilities. Our empirical analysis comprises two main steps. First, we create export profiles for eight European nations, using OECD TiVA data from 1995 to 2018. These profiles are categorized based on their technological and innovation content. Second, we identify significant shifts in export structures within Ireland, Sweden and Spain. Through thorough case studies, we illustrate the role of industrial policies in cultivating sector-specific technological capabilities.
本文为比较政治经济学关于国家出口专业化转型的论述做出了贡献。当前的增长模型文献通常强调生产者联盟的影响,而我们则提出了一个强调产业政策的补充视角。我们认为,这些政策不仅受政治影响,也深受部门技术能力的影响。通过战略性地参与需求方和供应方的部门创新过程,产业政策深化了现有的技术能力,并对新部门产生溢出效应,或培养新的特定部门能力。我们的实证分析包括两个主要步骤。首先,我们利用经合组织 1995 年至 2018 年的 TiVA 数据,创建了八个欧洲国家的出口概况。这些概况根据其技术和创新含量进行分类。其次,我们确定了爱尔兰、瑞典和西班牙出口结构的重大转变。通过深入的案例研究,我们说明了产业政策在培养特定行业技术能力方面的作用。
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引用次数: 0
The state and the state-of-the-art: prefiguring private insurance for US flood risk 国家与先进技术:为美国洪水风险预设私人保险
IF 3.7 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-04-03 DOI: 10.1093/ser/mwae019
Rebecca Elliott
States not only govern markets, but they also create them, often with the intention of expanding or improving the delivery of specific policy objectives. This article outlines one way they do this: prefiguration. States prefigure markets, and private market actors, when they imagine and instantiate new market products, logics, and practices. I illustrate prefiguration through an analysis of the history of the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), the federal program that underwrites flood insurance in the United States. From the time of the NFIP’s establishment, policymakers and officials have fashioned and continuously reformed a public program, and an insurance product, in ways that emulate an imagined primary private flood insurer. In doing so, though, they have gradually established the conditions under which private flood insurers can do business. This article contributes to scholarship on state ‘marketcraft’. Whereas many scholars have addressed why governments turn to markets in the first place, and the consequences of doing so, this article offers a closer examination of what takes place in between: the specific activities that governments undertake as they pursue market creation.
国家不仅管理市场,还创造市场,其目的往往是扩大或改善特定政策目标的实现。本文概述了国家创造市场的一种方式:预设。当国家想象并实现新的市场产品、逻辑和实践时,它们就预构了市场和私人市场参与者。我通过分析国家洪水保险计划(NFIP)的历史来说明预构化,该计划是美国承保洪水保险的联邦计划。从国家洪水保险计划建立之初,政策制定者和官员们就以模仿想象中的主要私人洪水保险公司的方式制定并不断改革公共计划和保险产品。不过,在此过程中,他们也逐步确立了私营洪水保险公司开展业务的条件。本文是对国家 "市场术 "学术研究的贡献。许多学者探讨了政府为何首先转向市场以及这样做的后果,而本文则对两者之间发生的事情进行了更深入的研究:政府在追求市场创造的过程中所开展的具体活动。
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引用次数: 0
Toward a cultural sociology of taxation 走向税收文化社会学
IF 3.7 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-23 DOI: 10.1093/ser/mwae017
Ruth Braunstein
This article advances calls for a cultural sociology of taxation by arguing that Zelizer’s theory of how monetary exchanges perform ‘relational work’ can be applied to taxpaying. Based on a review of research on taxpaying in the USA, I show this approach offers insight into a disparate set of puzzles about taxation including: why the USA continues to require income tax returns; why anti-tax sentiment persists even at low tax rates; why anti-government conservatives support some social spending; and whether linking taxpaying to citizenship promotes solidarity or racialized hierarchies. Recognizing that taxpaying involves relational work also reveals continuities with other forms of monetary exchange; and supplies evidence that relational work is performed at higher levels of relational abstraction than previously understood. While this article only gestures toward these possibilities, I hope it stimulates future research that fulfills the new fiscal sociology’s aspirations for a cultural sociology of taxation.
本文通过论证泽利泽关于货币交换如何执行 "关系工作 "的理论可以应用于纳税,从而推动了对税收文化社会学的呼吁。基于对美国纳税问题研究的回顾,我表明这种方法能够深入揭示有关税收的一系列不同谜题,包括:为什么美国继续要求申报所得税;为什么即使税率很低,反税情绪依然存在;为什么反政府的保守派支持某些社会支出;以及将纳税与公民身份联系起来是促进团结还是种族等级制度。认识到纳税涉及关系工作,还揭示了与其他形式货币交换的连续性;并提供证据表明,关系工作是在比以往理解的更高的关系抽象水平上进行的。虽然本文只是对这些可能性做了一些姿态,但我希望它能激发未来的研究,以实现新财政社会学对税收文化社会学的期望。
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引用次数: 0
The spectacle of automation and status aspirations: adoption of automated metro systems around the world, 2000–2020 自动化景象与地位期望:2000-2020 年全球自动地铁系统的采用情况
IF 3.7 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-13 DOI: 10.1093/ser/mwae016
Youbin Kang, Jungmyung Kim
Automation’s extensive impact on the labor market and economy is well recognized, but the underlying motivations for its adoption remain understudied. To address this gap, we analyze an original dataset covering 1276 cities across 148 countries, using event history analysis to examine the adoption of automated metro systems. Our research suggests that city governments are driven by status competition in their decisions to automate subway systems. We find that high-status cities are more likely to adopt automation. However, this trend diminishes when cities are preparing to host a mega-event such as the Olympics, indicating that lower-status cities use these events as opportunities to adopt automation technologies. Our finding reveals that status-driven aspirations, manifesting in the spectacle of automation, are a significant motivator for adopting automated technologies, prompting further investigation into the socio-economic factors influencing automation and the symbolic importance of technological advancement across various economic sectors.
自动化对劳动力市场和经济的广泛影响已得到公认,但对采用自动化的根本原因却研究不足。为了弥补这一不足,我们分析了一个涵盖 148 个国家 1276 个城市的原始数据集,利用事件历史分析法研究了地铁自动化系统的采用情况。我们的研究表明,城市政府在决定采用地铁自动化系统时受到了地位竞争的驱动。我们发现,地位高的城市更有可能采用自动化。然而,当城市准备举办奥运会等大型活动时,这种趋势就会减弱,这表明地位较低的城市会利用这些活动作为采用自动化技术的机会。我们的研究结果表明,以自动化奇观为表现形式的地位驱动愿望是采用自动化技术的重要动机,这促使我们进一步研究影响自动化的社会经济因素以及技术进步在不同经济领域的象征意义。
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引用次数: 0
Business, as usual? The impact of organized economic interests on the stringency of Covid-19 containment policies: insights from the Italian case 一切照旧?有组织的经济利益对 Covid-19 严格遏制政策的影响:意大利案例的启示
IF 3.7 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-07 DOI: 10.1093/ser/mwae013
Arianna Tassinari, Demetrio Panarello, Giorgio Tassinari, Fabrizio Alboni, Ignazio Drudi, Francesco Bagnardi
How do organized economic interests affect the governance of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic? We investigate whether the structural and instrumental power of employer organizations and unions impact upon the stringency of containment measures implemented by governing authorities to tackle the Covid-19 pandemic, focusing on Italy during the first Covid-19 wave of early 2020 as a crucial case. Using Hausman–Taylor panel regression models and original indicators of regional stringency and of unions and employers’ organizations’ efforts to exercise instrumental power via public pressure on social media, we find that the intensity of public pressure by employer organizations is negatively correlated with the stringency of the policy responses implemented by regional authorities to tackle the Covid-19 pandemic, whilst union pressures only show a limited effect. Our findings demonstrate that business pressure and the interplay of economic and class interests are constitutive of the governance of a crucial social and public health phenomenon such as the Covid-19 pandemic.
有组织的经济利益如何影响 2019 年冠状病毒病(Covid-19)大流行的治理?我们研究了雇主组织和工会的结构性和工具性力量是否会影响管理当局为应对 Covid-19 大流行而实施的遏制措施的严格程度,并将 2020 年初第一次 Covid-19 浪潮期间的意大利作为关键案例进行了重点研究。利用豪斯曼-泰勒面板回归模型和地区严格程度的原始指标,以及工会和雇主组织通过在社交媒体上施加公众压力来行使工具性权力的努力的原始指标,我们发现雇主组织施加公众压力的强度与地区当局为应对 Covid-19 大流行病而实施的政策反应的严格程度呈负相关,而工会的压力仅显示出有限的影响。我们的研究结果表明,企业压力以及经济利益和阶级利益的相互作用是 Covid-19 大流行病这种重要的社会和公共卫生现象治理的构成因素。
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引用次数: 0
How much does immigration contribute to national poverty rates? A decomposition analysis for 17 European welfare states 移民对国家贫困率的影响有多大?对 17 个欧洲福利国家的分解分析
IF 3.7 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-07 DOI: 10.1093/ser/mwae012
David de Smalen, Jan Van Bavel, Wim Van Lancker
Over the past decades, many European welfare states failed to reduce poverty. We examine two coinciding trends: the inability to lower poverty rates, and the growth of immigrant populations. Immigrants have become the main contributor to population growth in Europe and have higher poverty risks than natives. This contribution quantifies to what extent national poverty rates were driven by population change. We present a Kitagawa–Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition of national poverty rates in 17 western European countries between 2005 and 2019 using EU-SILC data. The effect of shifting EU and non-EU immigrant populations on poverty rates is heterogeneous: while poverty in some countries increased substantially due to compositional changes, for the majority the effect was small or negligible, including in countries with above-average growth of foreign-born populations. Overall, in two-thirds of country–years changes in the population composition were not the main driver of national poverty rates.
过去几十年来,许多欧洲福利国家都未能减少贫困。我们研究了两个同时出现的趋势:无法降低贫困率,以及移民人口的增长。移民已成为欧洲人口增长的主要贡献者,其贫困风险高于本地人。本文量化了人口变化对国家贫困率的影响程度。我们利用欧盟-SILC 数据对 2005 年至 2019 年间 17 个西欧国家的国家贫困率进行了北川-布林德-瓦哈卡分解。欧盟和非欧盟移民人口的变化对贫困率的影响是不同的:虽然一些国家的贫困率因人口构成的变化而大幅上升,但对大多数国家来说,这种影响很小或可以忽略不计,包括外国出生人口增长高于平均水平的国家。总体而言,在三分之二的国家年中,人口构成的变化并不是国家贫困率的主要驱动因素。
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引用次数: 0
Persistent or temporary? Effects of social assistance benefit sanctions on employment quality 持续还是暂时?社会援助福利制裁对就业质量的影响
IF 3.7 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-07 DOI: 10.1093/ser/mwad073
Markus A Wolf
This article analyzes the effects of sanctions for unemployed recipients of the social assistance benefit in Germany. I conduct an analysis using administrative data from 2012 to 2018, applying a dynamic entropy balancing approach. In contrast to most previous analyses of benefit sanction effects, I analyse outcomes over a longer period and assess effects on various dimensions of employment quality, including education (mis)match. The results show, in line with previous research, that benefit sanctions increase the employment probability in the first months after treatment. In the long run, the employment probability and employment quality of sanctioned benefit recipients are lower than those for the comparison group of non-sanctioned benefit recipients, indicating long-lasting negative effects. The negative consequences of benefit sanctions for employment quality are hence not temporary, but persistent.
本文分析了德国对失业的社会救济金领取者实施制裁的效果。我利用 2012 年至 2018 年的行政数据,采用动态熵平衡方法进行了分析。与以往大多数关于福利制裁效果的分析不同,我分析了更长时期内的结果,并评估了对就业质量各方面的影响,包括教育(不匹配)。结果显示,与之前的研究结果一致,福利制裁在治疗后的头几个月增加了就业概率。从长远来看,受制裁的福利金领取者的就业概率和就业质量低于未受制裁的福利金领取者对比组,这表明其负面影响是长期存在的。因此,福利金制裁对就业质量的负面影响不是暂时的,而是持续的。
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引用次数: 0
Feeling disadvantaged? Type of employment contract and political attitudes 感觉自己处于不利地位?就业合同类型与政治态度
IF 3.7 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-07 DOI: 10.1093/ser/mwae011
Kseniia Gatskova, Michał Pilc, Maciej Beręsewicz
We tested the theory of relative deprivation in the context of the Polish labour market during the post-crisis period from 2009 to 2015. This period witnessed the highest incidence of temporary contracts in the European Union, providing novel evidence on the causal relationship between the type of employment contract and political attitudes. Our findings suggest that temporary workers are more supportive of income redistribution but less supportive of democracy. Additionally, a shift from permanent to temporary contracts among prime-aged employees leads to a decrease in their support for democracy. Although this effect is modest in magnitude, the article points to an important mechanism influencing shifts in political attitudes. Our findings suggest that the effect of temporary employment on political attitudes is more pronounced among socio-demographic groups less accustomed to unstable employment.
我们在 2009 年至 2015 年危机后波兰劳动力市场的背景下检验了相对剥夺理论。在这一时期,临时合同的发生率在欧盟国家中最高,这为就业合同类型与政治态度之间的因果关系提供了新的证据。我们的研究结果表明,临时工更支持收入再分配,但不太支持民主。此外,壮年雇员从长期合同转向临时合同会导致他们对民主的支持率下降。虽然这种影响的程度不大,但文章指出了影响政治态度转变的一个重要机制。我们的研究结果表明,临时就业对政治态度的影响在不太习惯不稳定就业的社会人口群体中更为明显。
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引用次数: 0
Flexibility loss and worker well-being: what happens to job satisfaction when workers lose their telework usage? 灵活性的丧失与工人的幸福感:当工人失去远程工作的使用权时,工作满意度会发生什么变化?
IF 3.7 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-05 DOI: 10.1093/ser/mwae009
Satoshi Araki, Jeremy Rappleye
The association between flexible work arrangements (FWA) and worker well-being has been extensively investigated. However, the Covid-19 pandemic has generated a new phenomenon where workers return to inflexible workstyles after experiencing FWA. This article examines the consequence of this ‘flexibility loss’ with attention to telework and job satisfaction (JS). Using panel data collected by the Japanese government in 2020–2021, regressions and generalized structural equation modeling reveal (a) workers who frequently telework exhibit higher JS in both years; (b) on average, losing telework does not affect JS; and (c) workers who experienced telework-related challenges in 2020 and continue to work remotely next year report lower JS, whereas those who lost telework opportunities possess higher JS. These results suggest that a new type of labor stratification emerges based on the compound of workers’ FWA experience (upsides or downsides) and their FWA usage (continuation or withdrawal), which affects well-being either functionally or adversely.
灵活工作安排(FWA)与工人福祉之间的关系已得到广泛研究。然而,"Covid-19 "的流行产生了一种新的现象,即工人在经历了灵活工作安排后又回到了不灵活的工作方式。本文研究了这种 "灵活性丧失 "的后果,并关注了远程工作和工作满意度(JS)。利用日本政府收集的 2020-2021 年面板数据,回归和广义结构方程模型显示:(a)经常远程工作的工人在这两年都表现出较高的工作满意度;(b)平均而言,失去远程工作机会不会影响工作满意度;以及(c)在 2020 年经历过远程工作相关挑战并在下一年继续远程工作的工人报告的工作满意度较低,而失去远程工作机会的工人则拥有较高的工作满意度。这些结果表明,出现了一种新型劳动分层,其基础是工人的远程工作经验(好处或坏处)和远程工作使用情况(继续或退出)的复合,这对福祉产生了功能性或负面影响。
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引用次数: 0
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Socio-Economic Review
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