Journal of International Development最新文献

The declining birth rate in China has resulted in a decrease in the labour force, increased ageing of the population and constrained economic growth potential, making the increase in the birth rate a priority. This study explores the connections among digital inclusive finance, household debt and fertility rates using microdata from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) for the years 2011, 2013, 2015, 2017 and 2019, along with data on digital financial inclusion in China. The baseline study finds that both digital inclusive finance and household debt are negatively correlated with fertility rates, though there exists a positive association between digital inclusive finance and household debt. Heterogeneity studies show that the impacts of household debt and digital inclusive finance on fertility rates vary by region and household income level. In both the eastern and central-western regions, digital inclusive finance significantly affects family fertility decisions, whereas household debt significantly negatively affects family fertility decisions in central-western areas. High-income families are more positively influenced by digital inclusive finance, whereas low-income families are primarily negatively affected by household debt. Specific types of debt, such as housing and education, have a significant negative impact on fertility rates. Policy research also found that targeted reserve requirement ratio policies for inclusive finance are beneficial for increasing the birth rate. This paper provides empirical evidence for policymakers, helping them design more effective policies to reduce the economic burden on families, enhance family welfare and promote an increase in birth rates.

This paper explores the evolving trade effect of foreign aid using data from European countries from 1962 to 2020 in the context of multidonor competition. Our varying-coefficient panel shows a significant country- and time-heterogeneous trade effect of European donors' aid; however, aid competition can produce a mix of trade promotion and inhibitory effects. Estimations of aid's evolving trade effect reveal that donors' aid scale and (export) industrial concentration have a positive effect on promoting the trade–aid relationship with aid scale showing a reverse U-shaped effect; the share of Aid for Trade (AfT) exerts a negative effect, and the donor's trade deficit demonstrates a positive impact on aid–trade effect.

The rapid expansion of digital trade is reshaping global economies, offering promising opportunities to mitigate carbon emissions. This study investigates the impact of digital trade on carbon emissions across 27 European Union countries from 2009 to 2023, presenting new insights into the environmental benefits of digital trade. The empirical findings reveal that digital trade significantly reduces emissions by optimizing industrial structure, promoting technological innovation and enhancing human capital. The heterogeneity analysis shows that this reduction effect is more pronounced in Northern, Western and Central Europe, where digital infrastructure and regulatory support may be more robust, and it is also stronger in highly innovative countries compared to less innovative ones. These results underscore the potential of digital trade as a driver of sustainable economic growth, providing valuable insights for policymakers aiming to leverage digitalization to enhance environmental sustainability, align with climate targets and foster a more efficient, low-carbon economy.

This article offers new evidence to aid the discussion on the economic consequences of easing or tightening sanctions, with Cuba serving as a case study. Even with the persistent sanction regime, a level of trade, remittances and visitors has been sustained between the United States and Cuba, notably since the 1990s, fluctuating with the political climate. This study consolidates data from various sources to gauge the magnitude of this exchange relative to Cuba's GDP and calculates the susceptibility of economic indicators to shifts in sanctions (either easing or tightening) over the past three decades. Econometric findings demonstrate the impact of sanctions on Cuban economic growth. The findings suggest that tight sanctions negatively impact household consumption and Cuba's private sector. However, the data do not show a decline in the value of Cuban government consumption.

Hidden hunger is a global issue that affects an astounding 2 billion people, demanding targeted interventions for better resource allocation. However, conventional methods for identifying high-prevalence areas often prove impractical in developing countries. This study introduces a cost-effective and practical approach to detecting hidden hunger, combining household budget data with health surveys and applying these methods to Madagascar. By using small-area estimation techniques, the study achieves precise commune-level estimates, addressing the limitations of survey data representativeness. The findings challenge poverty-based targeting, revealing that 17.9% of stunted children belong to non-poor households. Additionally, 21.3% of non-stunted children are found in impoverished households, supporting Sen's argument that malnutrition extends beyond destitution. The analysis further highlights key commune-level determinants of hidden hunger, including access to healthcare, improved roads, telecommunication networks and productive agricultural activities.

This study investigates the gendered impact of household wealth on children's educational aspirations in China. Using two waves of longitudinal survey data of Chinese households from 2012 and 2016, we find that household assets have a differential impact on girls' and boys' educational aspirations. Household assets have a significant and positive impact on girls' aspirations for higher education, especially for graduate school, whereas boys' aspirations remain relatively stable across asset levels. We also demonstrate that this positive impact of household assets on girls' educational aspirations is limited to girls with same-sex siblings. Girls with sisters are more likely to report an increase in aspirations for higher education with increasing levels of household assets. Conversely, for girls with brothers, household assets have a negative impact on their aspirations for higher education. Our findings suggest that traditional gender norms and family investment strategies play a critical role in shaping educational aspirations, particularly in families with both sons and daughters.