Journal of Population Economics最新文献

The United States is facing an unprecedented drug overdose crisis, distinguished from prior epidemics by its severity, widespread impact, and demographic incidence. This study examines demographic overdose trends during the opioid crisis relative to historical disparities. Using a simple decomposition framework, I assess the contributions of specific demographic factors while accounting for other characteristics, finding that many disparities intensify when adjusted for covarying factors. Additionally, I analyze the long-term impacts of OxyContin's launch, discovering that it induced substantial differences in overdose rates by sex and education. While OxyContin contributed to some racial/ethnic disparities, there is evidence that other factors independently shaped these trends. Nonetheless, all demographic groups were substantially impacted by the introduction and promotion of OxyContin. This research highlights how certain groups have been disproportionately affected by the opioid crisis and the foundational role of supply-side shocks to opioid access in explaining the demographics of the overdose death crisis.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00148-025-01108-0.

It is well established that boys perceive themselves to be better in mathematics than girls, even when their ability is the same. We examine the drivers of the gender gap in self-assessed mathematics ability using a longitudinal study of twins. Using measures of individual self-assessment in mathematics from childhood, along with mathematics levels and test scores, cognitive skills, parent and teacher mathematics assessments, and characteristics of their families and siblings, we examine potential channels of the gender gap. Our results confirm that objective mathematics abilities only explain a small share of the gender gap in self-assessed mathematics abilities, and the gap is even larger within boy-girl twin pairs. We find that the self-assessment of boys is positively correlated with the self-assessment of their male co-twins, not just in mathematics, but also in other abilities. However, this positive correlation is not observed between girls and their male co-twins; if anything, it is negative. This indicates that boys and girls have different reactions to highly confident male peers. We also find that parents are more likely to overestimate boys' and underestimate girls' mathematics abilities. Gender-biased parental assessments explain a large part of the gender gap in mathematics self-assessment, highlighting the potential of the intergenerational transmission of gender stereotypes.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00148-025-01087-2.

The opioid crisis generates broader societal harms beyond direct health and economic effects, impacting non-users through adverse spillovers on children, families, and communities. We study the spillover effects of a supply-side policy aimed at reducing overprescription of opioids on women's well-being by examining its effects on intimate partner violence (IPV) in the United States. Using administrative data on incidents reported to law enforcement, in conjunction with quasi-experimental variation in the adoption of stringent mandatory-access prescription drug monitoring programs, we find that these policies generate a downstream benefit for women by significantly reducing their overall exposure to IPV and IPV-involved injuries by 9 to 10%. The strongest effects are experienced by groups with higher rates of opioid consumption at baseline, including non-Hispanic Whites. Our findings also show a significant increase in heroin-involved IPV incidents, suggesting substitution into illicit drug consumption. However, since heroin-related IPV accounts for less than 1% of all incidents, its increase among highly opioid-dependent individuals does not offset the overall decline in total IPV incidents in affected states. Our results highlight the need to identify high-risk groups prone to switching to illicit opioids and to address this risk through evidence-based policies.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00148-025-01111-5.

This paper shows that gender segregation in the labor market has important implications for the estimation of gender pay gaps. Using Switzerland as an example, we provide evidence that there are sizable segments in the labor market with perfect sorting such that there are no comparable men and women. In these segments, covariate-adjusted gender pay gaps are not identified non-parametrically. Reliability of estimated pay gaps then requires correct functional forms for extrapolation or excluding segments of the labor market with perfect sorting from the analysis. We discuss different estimation choices within this trade-off and show how they affect estimates of unexplained gender pay gaps. We find that enforcing comparability ex ante, estimator choice and functional form restrictions matter greatly. Using a flexible semi-parametric estimator with moderate restrictions on ex ante comparability explains up to 38% more of the raw gender pay gap and results in estimated unexplained gender pay gaps that are up to 44% smaller than standard Blinder-Oaxaca estimates that account for the same wage determinants but ignore lack of overlap.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00148-025-01115-1.

This paper investigates the causal impact of fathers' education on sons' longevity by linking the full count 1940 US census to Social Security Administration death records and using the first wave of compulsory schooling laws from 1875 to 1912 as instruments for education. OLS estimates suggest small protective effects-conditional on children surviving until age 35, an extra year of fathers' education increases sons' age at death by 0.75 months. IV estimates are substantially larger, with an extra year of a father's education increasing his son's age at death by 5.6 months. We also find that an extra year of fathers' education increases sons' education by 0.22 years, conditional on children surviving till 16 years. This suggests that intergenerational transmission of human capital is a channel linking fathers' education to children's longevity. In addition, we find significant improvements in sons' occupational status associated with higher paternal education, indicating that occupational mobility is another important pathway through which parental education improves long-term health and longevity.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00148-025-01134-y.

This study aims to analyze the effect of prenatal exposure to certain nutritional disruptions in utero on human capital formation. In order to resolve the endogeneity driven by maternal dietary deficiencies, we use the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, during which observers abstain from eating and drinking entirely from sunrise to sunset, as a natural experiment to assess the effects of fetal malnourishment on educational and labor market outcomes. We compare schooling and employment measures of individuals who are prenatally exposed to Ramadan with those who are not using the 2016 round of the Turkish Family Structure Survey dataset. Our results indicate that men who are exposed to Ramadan in utero in the first or third trimester complete 0.53 fewer years of schooling and are less likely to obtain middle school, high school, and college degrees. These effects are stronger when Ramadan coincides with summer.

We examine the labour market impacts of the largest livelihoods programs in the world, India’s Deendayal Antyodaya Yojana-National Rural Livelihoods Mission (DAY-NRLM). A key aspect of this program is to mobilize rural women into self-help groups (SHGs). We combine administrative data on SHG membership across districts in India with survey micro-data on labour force and employment outcomes of rural women between 2011 and 2019. Using a generalized difference-in-differences approach, we find that SHG membership is positively associated with labour force participation and employment of rural women. We also find evidence that SHG membership is associated with a shift towards self-employment and a crowd-out of casual work among the employed. Our supplementary analysis based on large primary survey data from Maharashtra allows us to examine the relationship between SHG membership and economic activity at the individual level. The results confirm our main result of a positive association between SHG membership and economic activity. Further, we show that longer duration of SHG membership is associated with higher participation rates.

Existing literature shows that a ban on child labour may be self-enforcing under the extreme assumption that, above the subsistence level, no amount of consumption can compensate parents for the disutility of child labour. The present paper shows that a partial ban may be self-enforcing also in a more general model where education is an alternative to work, and the disutility of child labour can be compensated by higher present consumption or future income, but a total ban may not. It also shows that, in the absence of informational asymmetries, child labour can be eliminated and a first best achieved if the ban is combined with a credit-backed policy including a subsidy to parents, and a tax on skilled adults. A first best is out of reach if the use children make of their time when they are neither at school, nor working in the labour market is private information, because the policy maker then faces an incentive-compatibility constraint. The second-best policy reduces child labour, but not to zero.

I propose a model of cultural assimilation with endogenous social networks and idiosyncratic assimilation patterns that is consistent with the empirical evidence for Europe. The model implies that assimilation is weaker in pluralistic or more culturally heterogeneous societies, and stronger in socially denser societies, but it is not influenced by the minority share. Social segregation for the minority increases with social density, with the minority share, and with the initial average cultural distance between the majority and the minority.

I demonstrate that the profound change in working from home (WFH) in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic is concentrated among individuals with college degrees. Relative to 2015–2019, the number of minutes worked from home on “post-pandemic” (August 2021–December 2022) weekdays increased by 78 min for college graduates; for non-graduates, the increase was 22 min. The share of work done at home (for those who worked at all) increased by 22% for graduates and 7% for non-graduates. I examine how time-use patterns change for college graduates relative to non-graduates over the same period. Average minutes worked changed little for either group. Daily time spent traveling (e.g., commuting) fell by 21 min for college graduates and 6 min for non-graduates. College graduates experience a relative shift from eating out to eating at home, an increase in free time, and an increase in time spent with children, with the latter effect concentrated among fathers. Thus, while the gender gap in childcare among college graduates may be diminished by the WFH revolution, gaps in children’s outcomes by parents’ college attainment may be exacerbated by it.