Journal of Population Economics最新文献

We develop a model of optimal lockdown policy for a social planner who balances population health with short-term wealth accumulation. The unique solution depends on tolerable infection incidence and social network structure. We then use unique data on nursing home networks in the US to calibrate the model and quantify state-level preference for prioritizing health over wealth. We also empirically validate simulation results derived from comparative statics analyses. Our findings suggest that policies that tolerate more virus spread (laissez-faire) increase state GDP growth and COVID-19 deaths in nursing homes. The detrimental effects of laissez-faire policies are more potent for nursing homes that are more peripheral in networks, nursing homes in poorer counties, and nursing homes that operate on a for-profit basis. We also find that US states with Republican governors have a higher tolerable incidence level, but these policies tend to converge with a high death count.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00148-022-00916-y.

When the European Union expanded eastward in 2004 and 2007 to accession the so-called EU8 and EU2 countries, respectively, the incumbent member states imposed temporary restrictions on the employment of EU8 and EU2 nationals. Self-employed individuals were exempted from these transitional arrangements, prompting concerns that self-employment could be used as a means to evade the restrictions on labour market access. If the transitional arrangements led to an increase in EU8 and EU2 nationals' self-employment rates, as previous research suggests, then their removal should have led to a corresponding decrease. This article analyses whether the latter has indeed been the case. Using pooled cross section data from the EU Labour Force Survey, over the period 2004-2019, we show that removing the transitional arrangements has had a negative effect on the self-employment rates of EU2 nationals, but seemingly no effect on the self-employment rates of EU8 nationals. Distinguishing between types of capitalist regimes, however, reveals a much more nuanced picture, with significant variation in terms of the magnitude and significance of the effect across groups of countries.

This paper uses data from the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe to analyze the effect of spousal health shocks on own labor supply decisions. The results suggest minimal changes to the probability of work and the intensity of work for both husbands and wives of disabled spouses. Wives do, however, experience an increase in the probability of retirement after their husbands experience a work-limiting health shock. The results suggest that this increased probability is due to the desire to consume joint leisure. Finally, the analysis finds substantial cross-regional heterogeneity in the effects that spousal health shocks have on the various labor market outcomes examined here, which suggests an important role for country-specific factors in the estimates provided in the earlier literature.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00148-022-00929-7.

Using a novel panel survey of relatively poor urban Peruvian adolescents, we explore the link between educational aspirations and propensity to invest in the future. Aspirations comprise hope and agency. We find remarkably high educational aspirations, even among relatively poor individuals and adolescents who were exposed to negative shocks, suggesting high levels of resilience. We also find high occupational aspirations and aspirations to migrate. High-aspiration respondents were also more likely to invest in their education and avoid risky behaviors. These are associations as we do not have enough data to establish causality, although we were able to control for within-person traits. Aspirations are stable over time and positively associated with personality traits such as self-efficacy and life satisfaction, which help explain their persistence over time. Our findings complement those of other recent studies that highlight the role of personality traits in addition to cognitive skills in long-term educational, health, and socioeconomic outcomes.

The potential death toll from an epidemic is larger than the number of deaths directly associated with the infection. In this study, we find that prenatal exposure to a cholera epidemic in Peru increased childhood mortality and that surviving children were more likely to be underweight and to suffer from diarrhea. We further find that a significant part of this mortality happened during the first day of life, and that prenatal exposure to cholera decreased prenatal care and institutional deliveries, suggesting that the mortality and possibly other longer-term effects were partially driven by a reduction in prenatal investments.

The COVID-19 pandemic represents a major threat to health and economic well-being in the USA, especially for older and disabled workers, and may spill over onto Social Security. We use individual-level from the Current Population Survey, state-level monthly Social Security administrative data on disability benefit applications, and national-level monthly data on Social Security retirement benefit applications to assess the impact of the pandemic on older adults' employment and benefit claiming. State-level monthly Google Trends data are used as a leading indicator of future claiming in the population. We find that employment for older workers dropped substantially more than would have been predicted prior to the pandemic: employment for 50-61-year-olds was 5.7 pp (8.3 percent) lower, while employment for 62-70-year-olds was 3.9 pp (10.7 percent) lower. We find declines in labor force exit due to disability (4-5 percent), applications for disability insurance (15 percent), the average age of disability program applicants, and Google searches for disability (7 percent). We contrast with prior periods of economic downturn and explore potential mechanisms, finding evidence for both supply- and demand-side explanations.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00148-022-00915-z.

This paper studies the dynamic effects of longevity on intergenerational policies and fertility, distinguishing between effects of expected and unexpected longevity gains. Old agents become poorer from unexpected longevity gains than from expected gains, as they cannot prepare (save) for the former in advance. In an overlapping-generations model with means-tested pay-as-you-go social security, we show that young agents reduce their fertility when longevity increases because they need to save more for their old age ("life-cycle effect"), and in the unexpected case, they also need to pay taxes to support the impoverished elderly ("policy effect"). Using cross-country panel data on mortality rates and social expenditure, we find that an unexpected increase in life expectancy at age 65 lowers total fertility rate growth and government family-related spending growth while raising government old-age spending growth.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00148-023-00943-3.

We combine the strengths of structural models and natural experiments in an analysis of tax-benefit reforms in the Netherlands. We first estimate structural discrete-choice models for labour supply. Next, we simulate key past reforms and compare the predictions of the structural model with the outcomes of quasi-experimental studies. The structural model predicts the treatment effects well. The structural model then allows us to conduct counterfactual policy analysis. Policies targeted at working mothers with young children generate the largest labour supply responses but generate little additional government revenue. Introducing a flat tax, basic income or joint taxation is not effective.