Journal of Population Economics最新文献

Fertility and income are negatively related at the aggregate level. However, evidence from recent periods suggests that increasing income leads to higher fertility at the individual level. In this paper, I provide a simple theory that resolves the apparent contradiction. I consider the education and fertility choices of individuals with different learning abilities. Acquiring higher education requires an investment of time and income. As a result, people with higher education have fewer children but, controlling for the level of education, increasing income leads to higher fertility. Rising income and skill premiums motivate more people to pursue higher education, resulting in a negative income-fertility association at the aggregate level. I investigate the explanatory power of the theory in a model calibrated for the US during 1950–2010.

I investigate the impact of the inflow of Syrian refugees to Jordan on school enrollment rates of 16–21-year-old Jordanians. Using an instrumented difference-in-differences identification strategy that utilizes the variation in the share of refugees across time and space, I show that the refugee influx resulted in a decline in school enrollment, primarily among males and youths with less educated parents. Next, I show that the effect would have been larger in the absence of post-influx investments in educational infrastructure in the most impacted areas. Finally, I show an increase in employment among Jordanian youths, pointing to a potential labor market mechanism for the estimated impact.

Abstract

This paper studies the long-run mortality effects of in utero and early-life economic conditions. We examine how local economic conditions experienced during the Great Depression, proxied by county-level banking deposits during in utero and first years of life, influences old-age longevity. We find that a one-standard-deviation rise in per capita bank deposits is associated with an approximately 1.7 month increase in males’ longevity at old age. Additional analyses comparing state-level versus county-level economic measures provide insight on the importance of controlling for local-level confounders and exploiting more granular measures when exploring the relationship between early-life conditions and later-life mortality.

This paper introduces an index for assessing local attitudes toward women in the United States, leveraging the Google search index and a machine learning methodology. Exploiting the constructed measure of sexism, our investigation reveals that the #MeToo movement garnered greater attention in areas characterized by low measured sexism in the pre-MeToo era. Additionally, a substantial increase in reported sex crimes is observed in those areas post-MeToo compared to those with higher sexism measures. Further empirical findings indicate that the surge in documented sex crimes primarily stems from changes in reporting behavior rather than substantive shifts in actual incidents.

We examine the effect of school shootings on risky health behaviors, health, and human capital outcomes of exposed students as adults and on their migration during middle and high school and a few years beyond. We use shootings data compiled by the Center for Homeland Defense and Security along with 2003–2012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System data to examine risky behaviors, health, and human capital outcomes, and the 2004–2018 American Community Survey to examine migration. We find that students exposed to school shootings experience declines in health and well-being, engage in more risky behaviors, and have worse education and labor market outcomes as young adults. There is no evidence of migration in response to school shootings.

Our work sheds light on the joint role of human capital and geography during the early stages of the transition from stagnation to growth in early twentieth century Greece. We uncover a robust association between geography and literacy. We also show that geography is correlated with land inequality and thus establish that land distribution is a channel through which geography influences literacy. Finally, the impact of geography on human capital formation weakens with industrialization. Our work contributes to the literature on geography and human capital in the transition from stagnation to growth since Greece was at the early stages of the industrial era during the study period.

Abstract

This study investigates the conditions under which welfare fraud and incomplete take-up emerge simultaneously and persist for a long time, which has been observed in many countries, particularly Japan and Germany. To do this, we extend models of statistical discrimination and taxpayers’ resentment to simple models of population dynamics. We find two stable boundary equilibria in the first model. One of these equilibria entails low welfare fraud and (100%) incomplete take-up, and the other entails high welfare fraud and (100%) take-up. In contrast, we find a unique stable equilibrium in the tax resentment model, which is interior and thus allows for the coexistence of welfare fraud and incomplete take-up in a long run. Hence, we conclude that this unique long-run equilibrium of the dynamic taxpayers’ resentment model provides a better explanation for the observation of simultaneous and persistent presence of welfare fraud and incomplete take-up in actual economies.