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Improving the Methodology for Assessing the Economic Efficiency of Public E-procurement of Medicines 改进药品公共电子采购经济效益评估方法
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-08-01 DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2023-4-63-81
A. I. Denisova, D. Sozaeva, K. Gonchar, G. A. Aleksandrov
The study raises the issue of evaluating the effectiveness of public procurement, especially procurement of medicines. This topic is relevant, since a significant part of state funding is directed specifically to the healthcare system. In addition, the quality of organization of procurement activities affects the work of hospitals and polyclinics. In this regard, the improvement of the methodology for assessing the economic efficiency of public procurement, particularly procurement of medicines, is critically important. The paper presents the results of statistical analysis showing the need to develop a more comprehensive methodology that takes into account the volume of failed purchases in the context of efficiency assessment. The issue of "repeated" purchases was studied separately, since information about them would allow drawing conclusions about the existing patterns in tenders and the reasons for recognizing a purchase as failed. The methodological novelty is associated with the description of the approach to the formation of a sample for research and the algorithm for identifying "repeated" procurement procedures. All calculations are based on real data on procurement under the Federal Law No. 44-FZ for 2021–2022. The data was aggregated from the Unified Information System for Procurement. A statistical analysis of the scale of failed and repeated purchases in the context of regions, medicines and pharmacotherapeutic groups has been conducted. Based on the analysis, approximate estimates of hidden costs of the state budget related to re-organizing and re-conducting of trade procedures are given. The results of the work can be used for further scientific research in the field of public procurement efficiency, as well as to improve public policy in the field of procurement and provision of medicines.
该研究提出了评估公共采购,特别是药品采购有效性的问题。这个主题是相关的,因为国家资金的很大一部分是专门针对医疗保健系统的。此外,采购活动的组织质量影响到医院和综合诊所的工作。在这方面,改进评估公共采购、特别是药品采购的经济效率的方法至关重要。该文件提出了统计分析的结果,表明需要制定一种更全面的方法,在效率评估的范围内考虑到失败采购的数量。“重复”采购的问题是单独研究的,因为关于这种情况的资料可以使我们对投标的现有模式和确认采购失败的原因得出结论。方法上的新颖性与描述形成研究样本的方法和确定“重复”采购程序的算法有关。所有计算均基于2021-2022年联邦法44-FZ下采购的真实数据。这些数据是从采购统一信息系统汇总的。对不同地区、药品和药物治疗组的失败和重复采购规模进行了统计分析。在此基础上,给出了与重组和重新实施贸易程序有关的国家预算隐性成本的大致估计。这项工作的结果可用于公共采购效率领域的进一步科学研究,以及改进药品采购和提供领域的公共政策。
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引用次数: 0
Problems and Methods of Improving the Legal Regulation of Public Investment in Russia 完善俄罗斯公共投资法律规制的问题与方法
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-08-01 DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2023-4-8-26
A. Zolotareva
The article describes the main conclusions of the research work aimed at identifying key problems of and ways to improve the legal regulation of public investment in Russia. This work was based on the analysis of legislation and practice of its application. The analysis leads to the conclusion that there are significant shortcomings in the current legislation on planning and implementation of public investment, which hinder their efficiency. Among such shortcomings, the author highlights contradictions on the issue of bodies authorized to make key investment decisions; duplication of the investment component of state programs and national (federal) projects; approval of budget allocations for projects that are not ready for implementation; unclear grounds for raising the price of construction contracts, as well as for centralizing the functions of planning and implementation of sectoral investments, reduction of requirements for justification of investment projects. To mitigate these shortcomings, the author suggests to ensure systematic planning of large investments as part of national and federal projects, excluding these costs from the state programs; as a general rule, to abandon the practice of approving decisions on the implementation of budget investments by individual acts of the government and financing projects without the necessary documentation; to organize a comparative assessment of the efficiency of centralized and sectoral customers in investment management according to legally defined criteria; to return to the use of some previously applied criteria for the efficiency of investment projects.
本文描述了研究工作的主要结论,旨在确定俄罗斯公共投资法律监管的关键问题和改进途径。这项工作是在立法分析和其应用实践的基础上进行的。分析得出的结论是,目前关于规划和执行公共投资的立法存在重大缺陷,妨碍了它们的效率。在这些缺点中,作者强调了在授权作出关键投资决策的机构问题上的矛盾;州计划和国家(联邦)项目投资部分的重复;批准对尚未准备好实施的项目的预算拨款;提高建筑合同价格以及集中规划和执行部门投资职能的理由不明确,减少投资项目的理由要求。为了减轻这些缺点,作者建议确保将大型投资作为国家和联邦项目的一部分进行系统规划,将这些成本排除在州计划之外;作为一般规则,放弃在没有必要文件的情况下批准政府个别行为对预算投资实施的决定和资助项目的做法;按照法定标准,组织对集中客户和行业客户投资管理效率进行比较评估;回归到以前投资项目效率的一些适用标准。
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引用次数: 0
The Tax Policy of the Republic of Crimea: Reducing Subsidization of the Region 克里米亚共和国的税收政策:减少对该地区的补贴
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-08-01 DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2023-4-112-122
I. V. Kiviko, N. I. Malis
Currently, the Republic of Crimea is a subsidized region, and for objective reasons the level of subsidization will not be significantly reduced in the near future, as a result of which the implementation of the indicators reflected in the Law of the Republic of Crimea "On the Strategy of Socio-economic Development of the Republic of Crimea until 2030" does not seem realistic. At the same time, the tax policy of the republic is developing measures to increase its own budget revenues, and they are already giving their positive results. Undoubtedly, the expansion of the revenue side of the regional budget should be based on increasing the manageability of the tax potential, which is formed taking into account the indicators of the dynamics of economic development. The unique geographical, resource and climatic conditions of the Republic of Crimea allow for a widely diversified economic development policy and, accordingly, regional tax policy. Based on the peculiarities of the territorial location and a large number of health resort and recreational complexes, it is possible to form a program of short-term measures to increase the tax base under special tax regimes, personal income tax and other taxes due to the cascade effect of business activity of individuals and SMEs. Full or partial solution of the problem of seasonality of active use of tourist infrastructure will increase the tax potential and, in turn, reduce subsidized dependence on the federal center. The management of tax potential should certainly be based on the analysis of the level of tax burden due to the fact that excessive tax burden can lead to the effect of reverse increase in tax payments.
目前,克里米亚共和国是一个受补贴的地区,由于客观原因,补贴水平在近期内不会显著降低,因此,克里米亚共和国法律“克里米亚共和国至2030年社会经济发展战略”所反映的指标的实施似乎不太现实。与此同时,共和国的税收政策正在制定措施,以增加自己的预算收入,并已取得积极成果。毫无疑问,扩大区域预算的收入方面应以增加对税收潜力的可管理性为基础,这是在考虑到经济发展动态指标的情况下形成的。克里米亚共和国独特的地理、资源和气候条件允许实行广泛多样化的经济发展政策,因此也允许实行区域税收政策。根据领土位置的特殊性和大量的疗养胜地和娱乐综合体,有可能形成一个短期措施方案,在特殊税收制度下增加税基,个人所得税和其他税收,由于个人和中小企业的商业活动的级联效应。积极使用旅游基础设施的季节性问题的全部或部分解决将增加税收潜力,从而减少对联邦中心的补贴依赖。如果税金负担过重,就会导致税金的反向增加,因此,税金潜力的管理应该以分析税金负担水平为基础。
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引用次数: 0
Financing Instruments and Outcomes for R&D Public Funding 研发公共资助的融资工具和成果
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-08-01 DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2023-4-27-42
O. Yastrebova, O. Karasev
The key actual task of improving the tools of scientific and technological policy is the focus of R&D on obtaining socially significant results, including the creation of in-demand innovative products and technologies. Its solution requires appropriate improvement of the system of financial support for science. The authors of the article consider the existence of a clearly structured relationship between the national goals set for the scientific field as a whole and specific tools for their achievement as a necessary condition for effective management of this sphere. The paper analyzes the key instruments of R&D financing from the point of view of approaches to ensuring their effectiveness. The necessity of linking the volume of funding with the achieved results is shown, and specific proposals to solving this problem are made, including those based on the assessment of the technology readiness level (TRL).
改进科技政策工具的关键实际任务是将研发重点放在获得具有社会意义的成果上,包括创造需求旺盛的创新产品和技术。解决这一问题需要适当完善科技财政支持体系。这篇文章的作者认为,在为整个科学领域设定的国家目标与实现这些目标的具体工具之间存在着一种结构明确的关系,这是有效管理这一领域的必要条件。本文从保证R&D融资有效性的途径入手,分析了R&D融资的关键工具。指出了将资金数额与取得的成果联系起来的必要性,并提出了解决这一问题的具体建议,包括基于技术准备水平(TRL)评估的建议。
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引用次数: 0
On the Feasibility of Using the Environmental Performance Index to Assess the Level of Socio-ecological Development of Russian Regions 用环境绩效指标评价俄罗斯地区社会生态发展水平的可行性研究
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-08-01 DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2023-4-98-111
Z. Mingaleva, I. Nikitina, I. Kruglova
Introduction: Investment decisions by many private and institutional investors are made taking into account the information (current estimates, forecasts, trends) contained in various country ratings regularly published by leading international financial and regulatory organizations (IMF, IBRD, UN), which allows investors to assess the level of risk and return on investment in various projects in these countries. The article evaluates the Environmental Performance Index (EPI), the most common in international studies, from the point of view of its use as a comprehensive tool for comparative analysis and an indicator for assessing the success of achieving the goals of sustainable social and environmental development of Russian regions. Purpose: Analysis of the feasibility of using EPI and its individual elements as part of an integrated approach to assessing the effectiveness of social and environmental development of Russia and its regions. Results: The authors reviewed the transformation of the methodology for calculating EPI over the entire period of its compilation; analyzed the dynamics of indicators, directions and blocks that make up the Index; assessed their adequacy to the geographical and sectoral features of social and environmental development. Conclusions: An extremely high level of politicization of the Index and inconsistency of its calculation methodology with the real conditions of Russia’s economic development were revealed. The inexpediency of its use in the present conditions to assess the social and environmental development of Russian regions, to build a rating of their sustainable development, to develop criteria for evaluating the effectiveness of environmental programs and projects, including in the field of green and environmental investments, was proved.
导言:许多私人和机构投资者的投资决策考虑了主要国际金融和监管组织(国际货币基金组织、国际复兴开发银行、联合国)定期发布的各种国家评级中包含的信息(当前估计、预测和趋势),这些信息使投资者能够评估这些国家各种项目的风险水平和投资回报。本文对国际研究中最常见的环境绩效指数(EPI)进行了评价,从其作为比较分析的综合工具和评估俄罗斯地区实现可持续社会和环境发展目标是否成功的指标的角度出发。目的:分析利用扩大投资指数及其个别要素作为评估俄罗斯及其各地区社会和环境发展有效性的综合办法的一部分的可行性。结果:作者回顾了EPI计算方法在整个编制期间的转变;分析了构成指数的指标、方向和板块的动态;评估其是否符合社会和环境发展的地理和部门特点。结论:该指数的政治化程度极高,其计算方法与俄罗斯经济发展的实际情况不一致。事实证明,在目前条件下,将其用于评估俄罗斯各地区的社会和环境发展、建立其可持续发展评级、制定评估环境计划和项目(包括绿色和环境投资领域)有效性的标准是不合适的。
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引用次数: 0
Monetary Poverty and Education in Russia 俄罗斯的货币贫困与教育
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-08-01 DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2023-4-43-62
B. Alekhin
Russian economic literature on poverty abounds with empirically unsupported assertions about the positive relationship between education and living standards. The purpose of this study is to find empirical evidence of this relationship using panel data for 82 regions of the Russian Federation for 2000–2021. We applied a dynamic OLS estimator to estimate a panel cointegrating equation and found strong negative and statistically significant dependence of indicators of absolute and relative monetary poverty on the highest level of education of the regional working-age population. We also performed the Dumitrescu-Hurlin pairwise causality test, which shows that higher education does not homogeneously cause more absolute monetary poverty, but more absolute monetary poverty does homogeneously cause better education as people try to avoid poverty by raising their educational level. The results of these econometric procedures suggest that the purpose of the study has been achieved.
俄罗斯关于贫困的经济文献中充斥着关于教育与生活水平之间的积极关系的没有实证支持的断言。本研究的目的是使用2000-2021年俄罗斯联邦82个地区的面板数据来寻找这种关系的经验证据。我们应用动态OLS估计器来估计面板协整方程,发现绝对和相对货币贫困指标对区域工作年龄人口的最高教育水平具有很强的负相关和统计显著性。我们还进行了dumitrescui - hurlin两两因果检验,结果表明,高等教育并没有均匀地导致更多的绝对货币贫困,但更多的绝对货币贫困确实均匀地导致更好的教育,因为人们试图通过提高教育水平来避免贫困。这些计量经济学程序的结果表明,研究的目的已经达到。
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引用次数: 0
Green Budgeting Tools and Practice 绿色预算工具和实践
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-08-01 DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2023-4-82-97
T. Vinogradova
Russia is following the course of implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals and shaping its climate strategy. In March 2023, Russia approved the National Action Plan for the second phase of adaptation to climate change for the period until 2025. The public budget is the main tool for achieving the political goals of the government, therefore, in order to implement the public policy in the field of environmental protection and counteraction to climate change, green budgeting is being introduced. The purpose of this article is to actualize the ideas of green budgeting, systematize such budgeting tools within the framework of the general concept of green budgeting, taking into account foreign experience of their use. The author uses general scientific methods, in particular methods of analysis and synthesis of relevant scientific literature, legal information and publications of international organizations. The following conclusions are made: The public budget system is able to minimize those economic activities that are adverse for the environment by creating the possibility of tracking, analysis, evaluation and adjustment of budget expenditures using the tools of green budgeting. The latter does not require restructuring of the public finance management system; the prerequisite for its practical use is the presence of environmental care among the state national goals.
俄罗斯正在遵循可持续发展目标的实施进程,并制定其气候战略。2023年3月,俄罗斯批准了《到2025年适应气候变化第二阶段国家行动计划》。公共预算是实现政府政治目标的主要工具,因此,为了实施环境保护和应对气候变化领域的公共政策,正在引入绿色预算。本文的目的是为了实现绿色预算的理念,在绿色预算的总体概念框架内,结合国外的使用经验,对绿色预算工具进行系统化的梳理。作者使用一般的科学方法,特别是分析和综合有关科学文献、法律资料和国际组织出版物的方法。公共预算制度可以利用绿色预算工具对预算支出进行跟踪、分析、评价和调整,从而最大限度地减少对环境不利的经济活动。后者不需要改组公共财政管理制度;其实际应用的先决条件是在国家目标中存在环境保护。
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引用次数: 0
Bitcoin Price Short-term Forecast Using Twitter Sentiment Analysis 利用推特情绪分析预测比特币短期价格
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-08-01 DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2023-4-123-137
A. Mikhaylov, V. Khare, S. Uhunamure, Ts. Chang, D. Stepanova
The goal of the article is to develop an innovative forecasting approach based on the Random Forest and fuzzy logic models for predicting crypto-asset prices (IFSs, PFSs, q-ROFSs). The baseline forecast horizon is 90 days (additional horizons are 30, 60, 120 and 150 days), which allows to estimate the significance of the chosen features and the impact of time on the forecast accuracy. The paper proposes an optimal data selection approach for the Random Forest and fuzzy logic models to improve the prediction of the daily closing price of Bitcoin, using online social network activity, trading parameters, technical indicators, and data on other cryptocurrencies. This paper utilizes a tree-based machine learning prediction and a fuzzy logic model for Bitcoin. The article attempts to prove that automated Bitcoin forecasting using machine learning algorithms is very effective for the cryptocurrency market. Nevertheless, the latter is characterized by high volatility, significant rate hikes of the most liquid cryptocurrencies (mainly Bitcoin). Therefore, investments in cryptocurrencies, especially long-term ones, involve significant risks. This defines the paper’s significance for investors and regulators. As shown by simulation studies of data selection approaches generalizing the accuracy performance of the Random Forest and fuzzy logic models to real preferences of forecasting, even under significant noise measurements, the proposed selection approach leads to fast convergence of estimates. The accuracy of the model’s results exceed 85.21 on a 90-day time horizon.
本文的目标是开发一种基于随机森林和模糊逻辑模型的创新预测方法,用于预测加密资产价格(ifs, pfs, q- rofs)。基线预测范围为90天(额外范围为30、60、120和150天),这允许估计所选特征的重要性以及时间对预测准确性的影响。本文利用在线社交网络活动、交易参数、技术指标和其他加密货币的数据,提出了随机森林和模糊逻辑模型的最优数据选择方法,以改进对比特币每日收盘价的预测。本文利用基于树的机器学习预测和模糊逻辑模型对比特币进行预测。这篇文章试图证明,使用机器学习算法的自动比特币预测对加密货币市场非常有效。然而,后者的特点是高波动性,流动性最强的加密货币(主要是比特币)大幅加息。因此,投资加密货币,特别是长期投资,涉及重大风险。这就定义了这篇论文对投资者和监管机构的重要性。数据选择方法的仿真研究表明,将随机森林和模糊逻辑模型的精度性能推广到预测的真实偏好,即使在显著噪声测量下,所提出的选择方法也能导致估计的快速收敛。在90天的时间范围内,模型结果的准确率超过85.21。
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引用次数: 0
Private Shareholder Engagements on Material ESG Issues 私人股东对重大ESG问题的参与
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-07-10 DOI: 10.1080/0015198x.2023.2220648
Rob Bauer, Jeroen Derwall, Colin Tissen
Abstract We study private shareholder engagements with 2,465 listed firms about environmental, social, and governance (ESG) issues from 2007 to 2020. We examine the extent to which private engagements address financially material ESG issues and contribute to firm performance. We find that material engagements succeed more often than immaterial engagements and that the targets of successful material engagements significantly outperform their peers by 2.5% over the next 14 months. Further, we find that material engagements are more often associated with improvements in profitability and cost ratios than immaterial engagements. Finally, our evidence indicates that a decrease in CO2e emission intensity accompanies environmental engagements.
我们研究了2007年至2020年2,465家上市公司的私人股东关于环境、社会和治理(ESG)问题的参与情况。我们考察了私人约定在多大程度上解决了……
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引用次数: 2
Personalized Multiple Account Portfolio Optimization 个性化的多账户投资组合优化
IF 2.8 3区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2023-06-28 DOI: 10.1080/0015198X.2023.2212581
Thomas M. Idzorek
Abstract I develop a multi-account alpha-tracking error framework that simultaneously optimizes across an investor’s multiple accounts with different tax treatments, existing holdings, tax lots, and opportunity sets while considering taxes and trade costs in a single optimization. The objective function includes an optional term for an investor’s nonpecuniary preferences, such as various environmental, social, and governance (ESG) characteristics. By running the multi-account optimizer regularly, it also serves as a personalized asset location optimizer, tax-loss harvester, portfolio rebalancer, roll-over optimizer, and new client onboarding transition optimizer that simultaneously considers the numerous interconnected tradeoffs to produce ongoing personalized portfolio management.
摘要我开发了一个多账户阿尔法跟踪误差框架,该框架同时优化投资者的多个账户,这些账户具有不同的税收待遇、现有持股、税务批次和机会集,同时在一次优化中考虑税收和交易成本。目标函数包括投资者非货币偏好的可选术语,如各种环境、社会和治理(ESG)特征。通过定期运行多账户优化器,它还可以作为个性化资产位置优化器、税收损失采集器、投资组合再平衡器、展期优化器和新客户入职过渡优化器,同时考虑众多相互关联的权衡,以实现持续的个性化投资组合管理。
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引用次数: 2
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