Pub Date : 2023-06-16DOI: 10.1080/0015198X.2023.2215252
Surpreet Bharjana, Rohan Fletcher, P. Lajbcygier
Abstract Factor investing exploits asset pricing anomalies to enhance fund returns. Unlike traditional market capitalization indexes, factors have onerous replication costs. We consider the impact of omitting costly, small stocks by industry in stratified factor-replicating portfolios. Such industry stratification achieves broader industry coverage and lowers tracking error compared with competing approaches. We show that the improvement in tracking error is due to enhanced industry coverage, not risk exposure, resulting in substantial economic benefits.
{"title":"Factor Replication with Industry Stratification","authors":"Surpreet Bharjana, Rohan Fletcher, P. Lajbcygier","doi":"10.1080/0015198X.2023.2215252","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/0015198X.2023.2215252","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Factor investing exploits asset pricing anomalies to enhance fund returns. Unlike traditional market capitalization indexes, factors have onerous replication costs. We consider the impact of omitting costly, small stocks by industry in stratified factor-replicating portfolios. Such industry stratification achieves broader industry coverage and lowers tracking error compared with competing approaches. We show that the improvement in tracking error is due to enhanced industry coverage, not risk exposure, resulting in substantial economic benefits.","PeriodicalId":48062,"journal":{"name":"Financial Analysts Journal","volume":"79 1","pages":"118 - 135"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-06-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47667721","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-18DOI: 10.1080/0015198X.2023.2208028
J. Park, M. K. Newaz
Abstract This study identifies the indicators of sector-level time-series predictability. The results show that investors can expect higher predictability in the more volatile sectors. In the developed markets, price downtrends, lower trading volume, and higher dividend yields indicate stronger predictability. The cyclical and sensitive super-sectors become more predictable as liquidity goes down. Particularly in the cyclical super-sectors, smaller market capitalization and larger term spread also indicate predictability. Sector selection based on the indicators can generate economic benefits.
{"title":"Time-Series Predictability for Sector Investing","authors":"J. Park, M. K. Newaz","doi":"10.1080/0015198X.2023.2208028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/0015198X.2023.2208028","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study identifies the indicators of sector-level time-series predictability. The results show that investors can expect higher predictability in the more volatile sectors. In the developed markets, price downtrends, lower trading volume, and higher dividend yields indicate stronger predictability. The cyclical and sensitive super-sectors become more predictable as liquidity goes down. Particularly in the cyclical super-sectors, smaller market capitalization and larger term spread also indicate predictability. Sector selection based on the indicators can generate economic benefits.","PeriodicalId":48062,"journal":{"name":"Financial Analysts Journal","volume":"79 1","pages":"136 - 154"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-05-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42280391","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-05-11DOI: 10.1080/0015198X.2023.2196931
Sina Ehsani, Campbell R. Harvey, Feifei Li
Abstract Stock characteristics have two sources of predictive power. First, a characteristic might be valuable in identifying high or low expected returns across industries. Second, a characteristic might be useful in identifying individual stock expected returns within an industry. Past studies generally find that the firm-specific component is the strongest predictor, leading many to sector neutralize their factor exposures. We show both analytically and empirically that the average long–short investor is more likely to benefit from hedging out sector bets, whereas the long-only investor should, on average, avoid sector neutralization.
{"title":"Is Sector Neutrality in Factor Investing a Mistake?","authors":"Sina Ehsani, Campbell R. Harvey, Feifei Li","doi":"10.1080/0015198X.2023.2196931","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/0015198X.2023.2196931","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Stock characteristics have two sources of predictive power. First, a characteristic might be valuable in identifying high or low expected returns across industries. Second, a characteristic might be useful in identifying individual stock expected returns within an industry. Past studies generally find that the firm-specific component is the strongest predictor, leading many to sector neutralize their factor exposures. We show both analytically and empirically that the average long–short investor is more likely to benefit from hedging out sector bets, whereas the long-only investor should, on average, avoid sector neutralization.","PeriodicalId":48062,"journal":{"name":"Financial Analysts Journal","volume":"79 1","pages":"95 - 117"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-05-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42540755","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-25DOI: 10.1080/0015198X.2023.2189891
B. Dumas, Tymur Gabuniya, R. Marston
Abstract Portfolio allocations to firms of various geographic areas should be guided by underlying risks of operations. In most statistical studies of international stock returns, a firm is included in a country’s index if its headquarters is located in that country, a classification scheme that ignores the operations of the firm taking place in multiple geographic areas. In prior work, we have proposed a model of country factors that is based on the business activities of all firms operating in a country, be they domestic firms or multinationals. In the present paper, we compare the resulting indexes with the domestic revenue exposure indexes already available in the industry. We conclude that our new indexes allow a portfolio manager to track geographic risk much more accurately.
{"title":"Geographic Investing: Stock Return Indexes Based on Company Operations","authors":"B. Dumas, Tymur Gabuniya, R. Marston","doi":"10.1080/0015198X.2023.2189891","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/0015198X.2023.2189891","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Portfolio allocations to firms of various geographic areas should be guided by underlying risks of operations. In most statistical studies of international stock returns, a firm is included in a country’s index if its headquarters is located in that country, a classification scheme that ignores the operations of the firm taking place in multiple geographic areas. In prior work, we have proposed a model of country factors that is based on the business activities of all firms operating in a country, be they domestic firms or multinationals. In the present paper, we compare the resulting indexes with the domestic revenue exposure indexes already available in the industry. We conclude that our new indexes allow a portfolio manager to track geographic risk much more accurately.","PeriodicalId":48062,"journal":{"name":"Financial Analysts Journal","volume":"79 1","pages":"64 - 74"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46206524","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-13DOI: 10.1080/0015198x.2023.2173492
David Blitz, Matthias X. Hanauer, Iman Honarvar, Rob Huisman, Pim van Vliet
Short-term alpha signals are generally dismissed in traditional asset pricing models, primarily due to market friction concerns. However, this paper demonstrates that investors can obtain a significant net alpha by applying a combination of signals to a liquid global universe and with advanced buy/sell trading rules that mitigate transaction costs. The composite model consists of short-term reversal, short-term momentum, short-term analyst revisions, short-term risk, and monthly seasonality signals. The resulting alpha is present in out-of-sample and post-publication periods and across regions, translates into long-only applications, is robust to incorporating implementation lags of several days, and is uncorrelated to traditional Fama-French factors.
{"title":"Beyond Fama-French Factors: Alpha from Short-Term Signals","authors":"David Blitz, Matthias X. Hanauer, Iman Honarvar, Rob Huisman, Pim van Vliet","doi":"10.1080/0015198x.2023.2173492","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/0015198x.2023.2173492","url":null,"abstract":"Short-term alpha signals are generally dismissed in traditional asset pricing models, primarily due to market friction concerns. However, this paper demonstrates that investors can obtain a significant net alpha by applying a combination of signals to a liquid global universe and with advanced buy/sell trading rules that mitigate transaction costs. The composite model consists of short-term reversal, short-term momentum, short-term analyst revisions, short-term risk, and monthly seasonality signals. The resulting alpha is present in out-of-sample and post-publication periods and across regions, translates into long-only applications, is robust to incorporating implementation lags of several days, and is uncorrelated to traditional Fama-French factors.","PeriodicalId":48062,"journal":{"name":"Financial Analysts Journal","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135190009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-11DOI: 10.1080/0015198X.2023.2185066
Guido Baltussen, L. Swinkels, Bart van Vliet, Pim van Vliet
Abstract We examine asset class and factor premiums across inflationary regimes. As periods of deflation, high inflation, and especially stagflation are relatively uncommon in recent history, we use a deep sample starting in 1875. Moderate inflation scenarios provide the highest returns across asset class and factor premiums. During deflationary periods, nominal returns are low, but real returns are attractive. By contrast, real equity and bond returns are negative during a high inflation regime and especially so during times of stagflation. During these “bad times,” factor premiums are positive, which helps to offset part of the real capital losses.
{"title":"Investing in Deflation, Inflation, and Stagflation Regimes","authors":"Guido Baltussen, L. Swinkels, Bart van Vliet, Pim van Vliet","doi":"10.1080/0015198X.2023.2185066","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/0015198X.2023.2185066","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract We examine asset class and factor premiums across inflationary regimes. As periods of deflation, high inflation, and especially stagflation are relatively uncommon in recent history, we use a deep sample starting in 1875. Moderate inflation scenarios provide the highest returns across asset class and factor premiums. During deflationary periods, nominal returns are low, but real returns are attractive. By contrast, real equity and bond returns are negative during a high inflation regime and especially so during times of stagflation. During these “bad times,” factor premiums are positive, which helps to offset part of the real capital losses.","PeriodicalId":48062,"journal":{"name":"Financial Analysts Journal","volume":"79 1","pages":"5 - 32"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48989807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-03DOI: 10.1080/0015198X.2023.2173506
R. Arnott, C. Brightman, Vitali Kalesnik, Lillian J. Wu
Abstract Traditional capitalization-weighted indices generally add stocks with high valuation multiples after persistent outperformance and sell stocks at low valuation multiples after persistent underperformance. It is well known that the price impact of these changes can be large once a change is announced. The subsequent reversal is less well known. For example, in the year after a change in the S&P 500 Index, discretionary deletions beat additions by 22%, on average. Simple rules, such as trading ahead of index funds or delaying reconstitution trades by 3 to 12 months, can add up to 23 basis points a year. This benefit roughly doubles when we cap-weight a portfolio selected based on the fundamental size of a company’s business or on its multi-year average market-cap.
{"title":"Earning Alpha by Avoiding the Index Rebalancing Crowd","authors":"R. Arnott, C. Brightman, Vitali Kalesnik, Lillian J. Wu","doi":"10.1080/0015198X.2023.2173506","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/0015198X.2023.2173506","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Traditional capitalization-weighted indices generally add stocks with high valuation multiples after persistent outperformance and sell stocks at low valuation multiples after persistent underperformance. It is well known that the price impact of these changes can be large once a change is announced. The subsequent reversal is less well known. For example, in the year after a change in the S&P 500 Index, discretionary deletions beat additions by 22%, on average. Simple rules, such as trading ahead of index funds or delaying reconstitution trades by 3 to 12 months, can add up to 23 basis points a year. This benefit roughly doubles when we cap-weight a portfolio selected based on the fundamental size of a company’s business or on its multi-year average market-cap.","PeriodicalId":48062,"journal":{"name":"Financial Analysts Journal","volume":"79 1","pages":"76 - 97"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44313292","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-03DOI: 10.1080/0015198X.2023.2169027
J. Durham
Abstract An arbitrage-free model decomposes yields on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) into expected real rates, real frictionless term premiums, and liquidity premiums. Estimation eschews non-market information, incorporates a novel observable liquidity factor, and addresses factor persistence and sample biases, including real-time estimation. Results include a modest secular decline in equilibrium real rates and a much larger drop in frictionless required excess real returns, on net, from July 1999 to September 2022. Real term premiums appear to be pro-cyclical, which implies that the default risk-free asset is a hedge, and some evidence suggests that TIPS liquidity premiums are counter-cyclical.
{"title":"What Do TIPS Say about Real Interest Rates and Required Returns?","authors":"J. Durham","doi":"10.1080/0015198X.2023.2169027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/0015198X.2023.2169027","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract An arbitrage-free model decomposes yields on Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) into expected real rates, real frictionless term premiums, and liquidity premiums. Estimation eschews non-market information, incorporates a novel observable liquidity factor, and addresses factor persistence and sample biases, including real-time estimation. Results include a modest secular decline in equilibrium real rates and a much larger drop in frictionless required excess real returns, on net, from July 1999 to September 2022. Real term premiums appear to be pro-cyclical, which implies that the default risk-free asset is a hedge, and some evidence suggests that TIPS liquidity premiums are counter-cyclical.","PeriodicalId":48062,"journal":{"name":"Financial Analysts Journal","volume":"79 1","pages":"21 - 44"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47491561","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-01DOI: 10.31107/2075-1990-2023-2-90-102
J. Tarasova, E. Lyashko
ESG factors are becoming an integral part of financial relationships, thereby increasing the demand for responsible financing instruments. Thanks to the latter, an investor can not only get the expected rate of return, but also contribute to the achievement of sustainable development goals. Green bonds, which are an example of such an instrument, help to raise financing for green activities and projects. By the end of 2021, the total amount of issued green bonds exceeded the record $1.5 trillion mark. The crisis year of 2022 contributed to a revision of many ESG criteria and the relevance of green agenda as a whole. Such changes can have serious consequences for the green bond market, but their analysis is a matter for the future. The main purpose of the research is to analyze the determinants that have influenced green bond issuance in European countries in 2021. The authors find a significant relationship between institutional factors and the volume of issued green bonds using correlation and regression analysis on a sample of European countries. Among institutional factors, the most significant are environmental regulation and the level of sustainability development.
{"title":"The Influence of Institutional Factors on Green Bond Issuance: a Look Back to 2021","authors":"J. Tarasova, E. Lyashko","doi":"10.31107/2075-1990-2023-2-90-102","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31107/2075-1990-2023-2-90-102","url":null,"abstract":"ESG factors are becoming an integral part of financial relationships, thereby increasing the demand for responsible financing instruments. Thanks to the latter, an investor can not only get the expected rate of return, but also contribute to the achievement of sustainable development goals. Green bonds, which are an example of such an instrument, help to raise financing for green activities and projects. By the end of 2021, the total amount of issued green bonds exceeded the record $1.5 trillion mark. The crisis year of 2022 contributed to a revision of many ESG criteria and the relevance of green agenda as a whole. Such changes can have serious consequences for the green bond market, but their analysis is a matter for the future. The main purpose of the research is to analyze the determinants that have influenced green bond issuance in European countries in 2021. The authors find a significant relationship between institutional factors and the volume of issued green bonds using correlation and regression analysis on a sample of European countries. Among institutional factors, the most significant are environmental regulation and the level of sustainability development.","PeriodicalId":48062,"journal":{"name":"Financial Analysts Journal","volume":"16 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82333235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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