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Why do some new products fail? Evidence from the entry and exit of Vanilla Coke 为什么有些新产品会失败?香草可乐进入和退出市场的证据
IF 1.7 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-10-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijindorg.2024.103112
Robert Clark, Yiran Gong
We study a new brand (Coca-Cola's Vanilla Coke) that was discontinued after its introduction, to investigate reasons for its failure and why it was ever introduced in the first place. We estimate demand and supply and simulate a scenario in which it was not introduced. We estimate profit gains and show they may have been insufficient to cover fixed costs. We analyze the importance of variables for explaining its failure, investigating the levels of each required to cover fixed costs. We then explain how Coca-Cola may have incorrectly forecast the levels of these variables by focusing on their pre-introduction values.
我们研究了一个新品牌(可口可乐公司的香草可乐),该品牌在推出后就停产了,我们研究其失败的原因,以及为什么当初要推出该品牌。我们对需求和供给进行了估计,并模拟了没有引进该品牌的情景。我们对利润收益进行了估算,结果表明利润收益可能不足以弥补固定成本。我们分析了各种变量对解释可口可乐失败的重要性,调查了支付固定成本所需的各种变量水平。然后,我们解释了可口可乐公司是如何通过关注这些变量的引入前值来错误预测其水平的。
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引用次数: 0
Bargaining on price on behalf of price-insensitive downstream consumers 代表对价格不敏感的下游消费者进行价格谈判
IF 1.7 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijindorg.2024.103107
Guy Arie , Paul L.E. Grieco , Shiran Rachmilevitch
There are settings in which prices are negotiated by procurement agents and final consumption decisions are made by end users who are indifferent to negotiated prices. For example, a patient seeking medical treatment is indifferent to the treatment's cost if it is covered by his insurance program. We study bargaining for per-unit prices between suppliers and an intermediary who represents price-insensitive consumers. Under the commonly used simultaneous bargaining framework we show that, if suppliers have sufficiently high bargaining power, the resulting prices will exceed the value of the good (or service) being delivered. This overpricing is solved if simultaneous negotiations are replaced by sequential ones. The theoretical problem with sequential negotiations is that they necessitate treating the suppliers asymmetrically, even if they are symmetric; the empirical problem with sequential negotiations is that the negotiations-order is unobservable. We propose a multi-period model that resolves these issues: overpricing is prevented and all suppliers are treated the same. In this model, the result about sequential negotiations is utilized in order to produce (asymmetric) off-path threats. These threats sustain symmetric on-path play.
在有些情况下,价格是由采购代理机构协商确定的,而最终消费决策是由对协商价格漠不关心的最终用户做出的。例如,如果病人的医疗费用在保险范围内,那么他对治疗费用是无动于衷的。我们研究的是供应商与代表对价格不敏感的消费者的中间商之间就单位价格进行的讨价还价。在常用的同时讨价还价框架下,我们发现,如果供应商有足够高的讨价还价能力,所产生的价格就会超过所提供商品(或服务)的价值。如果用顺序谈判取代同时谈判,这种定价过高的问题就会迎刃而解。顺序谈判的理论问题在于,即使供应商是对称的,也必须对其进行非对称处理;顺序谈判的经验问题在于,谈判顺序是不可观测的。我们提出了一个解决这些问题的多期模型:防止定价过高,对所有供应商一视同仁。在这个模型中,利用顺序谈判的结果来产生(非对称)非路径威胁。这些威胁会维持对称的路径上博弈。
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引用次数: 0
Redesigning automated market power mitigation in electricity markets 重新设计电力市场中的自动市场力量缓解措施
IF 1.7 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijindorg.2024.103108
Jacqueline Adelowo , Moritz Bohland
Electricity markets are prone to the abuse of market power. Several U.S. markets employ algorithms to monitor and mitigate market power abuse in real-time. The performance of automated mitigation procedures is contingent on precise estimates of firms' marginal production costs. Currently, marginal cost is inferred from the past offers of a plant. We present new estimation approaches and compare them to the currently applied benchmark method. We test the performance of all approaches on auction data from the Iberian power market. The results show that our novel approaches outperform the benchmark approach significantly, reducing the mean (median) absolute estimation error from 11.53 (6.08) €/MWh in the benchmark to 4.03 (2.64) €/MWh for our preferred approach. This approach also performs best in our subsequent simulation of mitigation procedures. Here we find large welfare transfers from supplier to buyer surplus as well as a robust overall welfare gain, stemming from both productive and allocative efficiency gains. Our research contributes to accurate monitoring of market power and improved automated mitigation. Although we focus on power markets, our findings are applicable to monitoring of renewable energy tenders or market power surveillance in rail and air traffic.
电力市场容易出现滥用市场支配力的现象。美国的一些市场采用算法实时监测和缓解市场支配力滥用。自动缓解程序的性能取决于对企业边际生产成本的精确估算。目前,边际成本是根据工厂过去的报价推断出来的。我们提出了新的估算方法,并将其与目前使用的基准方法进行了比较。我们在伊比利亚电力市场的拍卖数据上测试了所有方法的性能。结果显示,我们的新方法明显优于基准方法,平均(中位数)绝对估计误差从基准方法的 11.53 (6.08) 欧元/兆瓦时减少到我们首选方法的 4.03 (2.64) 欧元/兆瓦时。这种方法在我们随后的缓解程序模拟中也表现最佳。在此,我们发现了从供应方到购买方盈余的大量福利转移,以及源于生产和分配效率提高的稳健的整体福利收益。我们的研究有助于准确监控市场支配力和改进自动缓解措施。虽然我们关注的是电力市场,但我们的研究结果也适用于可再生能源招标的监控或铁路和航空交通的市场支配力监控。
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引用次数: 0
Who versus when: Designing decision processes in organizations 谁与何时:设计组织中的决策过程
IF 1.7 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijindorg.2024.103111
Roi Orzach
This paper analyzes concurrent versus sequential decision-making in a model where two units first communicate and then make decisions, attempting to both adapt to their local conditions and coordinate with their partner. Sequential decision-making improves overall information sharing compared to concurrent decision-making. However, first movers also have an incentive to over-adapt to their state, knowing second movers will conform to their decision. A surplus-maximizing headquarters prefers sequential decision-making to concurrent if and only if (i) the two units' local conditions have sufficiently different volatilities and (ii) their need to coordinate is sufficiently asymmetric or low. Finally, sequential decision-making is shown to be optimal even when allowing for additional governance structures involving the reallocation of decision rights across the units and the headquarters and is shown to render some commonly-analyzed forms of decentralization sub-optimal.
本文分析了在一个模型中并行决策与顺序决策的对比,在这个模型中,两个单位首先进行沟通,然后做出决策,试图既适应当地条件,又与合作伙伴协调。与同时决策相比,顺序决策改善了整体信息共享。然而,先行者也有动机过度适应自己的状态,因为他们知道后行者会服从他们的决策。盈余最大化的总部更倾向于顺序决策,而不是同时决策,当且仅当 (i) 两个单位的局部条件具有足够不同的波动性,以及 (ii) 它们的协调需求足够不对称或足够低。最后,即使考虑到涉及在单位和总部之间重新分配决策权的额外治理结构,顺序决策也是最优的,并表明顺序决策会使一些通常分析的分权形式变得次优。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of cartel dissolution on prices: Evidence from the air cargo cartel 卡特尔解体对价格的影响:航空货运卡特尔的证据
IF 1.7 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijindorg.2024.103109
Douglas C. Turner
I analyze pricing behavior before and after the detection of an air cargo cartel using a novel, hand-collected dataset. I find that prices did not decline after the cartel's detection. Additionally, pricing patterns are consistent with post-cartel tacit collusion. My findings suggest that airlines' cartel activity (specifically, the development of a methodology for determining the collusive price) laid a foundation for future tacit collusion. As a result, airlines profited from cartel activity, and shippers paid elevated prices, long after the cartel's dissolution.
我利用手工收集的新数据集分析了航空货运卡特尔被发现前后的定价行为。我发现,卡特尔被发现后,价格并没有下降。此外,定价模式与卡特尔后的默契合谋一致。我的研究结果表明,航空公司的卡特尔活动(特别是制定了确定合谋价格的方法)为未来的默契合谋奠定了基础。因此,航空公司从卡特尔活动中获利,托运人在卡特尔解散后很长时间内支付了高价。
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引用次数: 0
Market power, randomization and regulation 市场支配力、随机化和监管
IF 1.7 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijindorg.2024.103081

This paper provides an introduction to and overview of the mechanism design approach to textbook monopoly and monopsony pricing problems. Specifically, assuming that agents are privately informed about their values and costs, it shows that the optimal selling and procurement mechanisms quite generally involve rationing, provided the underlying mechanism design problem does not satisfy the regularity assumption of Myerson (1981). Rationing takes the form of underpricing in the case of a monopoly seller and of involuntary unemployment and efficiency wages in the case of a monopsony employer. The paper illustrates these phenomena, as well as the effects of price ceilings and minimum wages, with a leading example that permits closed-form solutions. It also explains why resale tends to undermine the firm's benefits from rationing without eliminating them and discusses emerging issues for the theory of regulation.

本文介绍并概述了教科书中垄断和垄断定价问题的机制设计方法。具体来说,假定代理人对其价值和成本是私人知情的,只要基本的机制设计问题不满足......的规则性假设,本文就能证明最优销售和采购机制一般都涉及配给。配给在垄断卖方情况下表现为定价过低,在垄断雇主情况下表现为非自愿失业和效率工资。本文通过一个允许闭式求解的主要例子来说明这些现象以及价格上限和最低工资的影响。本文还解释了为什么转售往往会削弱企业从配给中获得的利益,而不会消除这些利益,并讨论了监管理论的新问题。
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引用次数: 0
Ownership frictions in a procurement market: Evidence from London buses 采购市场中的所有权摩擦:伦敦公交车的证据
IF 1.7 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijindorg.2024.103080

This paper investigates the efficiency impact of garage ownership frictions in the procurement of public bus transportation services in London. In this market, operators are less competitive for routes far from their garages, leading to local monopoly rents. Empty bus travel between garages and routes (dead miles) is found to account for about 13 percent of driving time in this market. Consequentially, sizeable effects of dead mile minutes on bids and procurement costs are estimated. Taking the urban context and the demand side as given, and treating this market as a typical network industry, counterfactual simulations evaluate the effect of unbundling the ownership of bus garages from the operation of the bus routes. Letting a central dispatcher allocate buses to garages would reduce total dead miles by 14 percent, with corresponding reductions of operating costs and of polluting exhaust emissions.

本文研究了伦敦公共汽车运输服务采购中车库所有权摩擦对效率的影响。在这一市场中,运营商在远离其车库的线路上竞争力较弱,从而导致地方垄断租金。在该市场中,车库和线路()之间的空驶时间约占行驶时间的 13%。因此,可以估算出空驶时间对投标和采购成本的巨大影响。考虑到城市环境和需求方的既定情况,并将该市场视为典型的网络行业,进行了反事实模拟,以评估将巴士车库的所有权与巴士线路的运营权分开的效果。由中央调度员将公交车分配到车库,总行驶里程将减少 14%,运营成本和污染性废气排放也会相应减少。
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引用次数: 0
Drivers of public procurement prices: Evidence from pharmaceutical markets 公共采购价格的驱动因素:医药市场的证据
IF 1.7 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijindorg.2024.103086
Claudia Allende , Juan Pablo Atal , Rodrigo Carril , José Ignacio Cuesta , Andrés González-Lira

This paper examines the determinants of public procurement prices using comprehensive data on pharmaceutical purchases by the public sector in Chile. We first document sizable price differences between buyers for the same product and quantity purchased: the difference between the average prices paid by buyers at the 90th and 10th percentiles of the distribution is 16 percent. Our main results are related to the importance of market structure in explaining the dispersion in procurement prices. We find that market structure explains three times more dispersion than buyer effects. Moreover, we leverage exogenous variation in market structure due to patent expirations to estimate that the entry of an additional seller decreases average procurement prices by 11.7 percent, which is 72 percent of the price differences implied by the gap between the 90th and 10th percentiles of estimated buyer effects. These results suggest that supply-side factors are relevant determinants of public procurement prices and that their quantitative importance may exceed that of demand-side factors previously emphasized in the literature.

本文利用智利公共部门药品采购的综合数据,研究了公共采购价格的决定因素。我们首先记录了相同产品和采购数量下不同采购商之间存在的巨大价格差异:在分布的第 90 个百分位数和第 10 个百分位数之间,采购商支付的平均价格相差 16%。我们的主要结果与市场结构在解释采购价格分散方面的重要性有关。我们发现,市场结构对离散性的解释是买家效应的三倍。此外,我们利用专利到期导致的市场结构的外生变化,估计多一个卖方的进入会使平均采购价格下降 11.7%,这相当于估计的买方效应第 90 个百分位数和第 10 个百分位数之间的差距所隐含的价格差异的 72%。这些结果表明,供应方因素是政府采购价格的相关决定因素,其数量上的重要性可能超过文献中先前强调的需求方因素。
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引用次数: 0
The effects of short-term rental regulation: Insights from Chicago 短期租赁监管的效果:芝加哥的启示
IF 1.7 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijindorg.2024.103087
Ginger Zhe Jin , Liad Wagman , Mengyi Zhong

We provide an in-depth study of short-term rental (STR) regulation in Chicago. While many municipalities choose between outright bans or laissez-faire strategies concerning STR activities, Chicago pioneered a middle-ground ordinance, enabling the market to exist with limitations and registrations, and imposing a new tax. We show that compared to three control cities, the number of active Airbnb listings in Chicago declined 16.4% in the two years after the ordinance, but this effect is only significant after the city began receiving detailed data feeds from STR platforms. We further demonstrate (i) localized reductions in burglaries near buildings that prohibit STR listings as part of a new capability of the ordinance, (ii) Airbnb revenues declined more in zip codes with above-median hotel revenues, and (iii) Chicago's middle ground approach generated different and nuanced effects on different STR stakeholders, including the city itself in terms of its STR tax revenues.

我们对芝加哥的短期租赁(STR)监管进行了深入研究。许多城市对短租活动采取全面禁止或放任自流的策略,而芝加哥则开创性地制定了一项中庸法令,通过限制和登记使市场得以存在,并征收新税。我们的研究表明,与三个对照城市相比,芝加哥的活跃 Airbnb 房源数量在法令实施后的两年内下降了 16.4%,但这一影响只有在该市开始接收 STR 平台的详细数据反馈后才显著。我们进一步证明了:(i)作为法令新功能的一部分,禁止 STR 房源的建筑物附近的入室盗窃案有所减少;(ii)在酒店收入高于中位数的邮政编码中,Airbnb 收入下降较多;以及(iii)芝加哥的中间路线对不同的 STR 利益相关者产生了不同且细微的影响,包括该市本身的 STR 税收收入。
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引用次数: 0
Competition with exclusive contracts in vertically related markets: An equilibrium non-existence result 纵向相关市场中的排他性合同竞争:均衡不存在的结果
IF 1.7 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijindorg.2024.103097
Nicolas Schutz

I study a model in which two upstream firms compete to supply a homogeneous input to two downstream firms selling differentiated products. Upstream firms offer exclusive, discriminatory, public, two-part tariff contracts to the downstream firms. I show that, under very general conditions, this game does not have a pure-strategy subgame-perfect equilibrium. The intuition is that variable parts in such an equilibrium would have to be pairwise-stable; however, with pairwise-stable variable parts, downstream competitive externalities are not internalized, implying that upstream firms can profitably deviate. I contrast this non-existence result with earlier papers that found equilibria in related models.

我研究了这样一个模型:两家上游企业竞相向两家销售差异化产品的下游企业提供同质投入。上游企业向下游企业提供排他性的、歧视性的、公开的、两部分关税合同。我的研究表明,在非常一般的条件下,这个博弈不存在纯策略的亚博弈完全均衡。直觉告诉我们,这种均衡中的可变部分必须是成对稳定的;然而,在可变部分成对稳定的情况下,下游竞争的外部性不会被内部化,这意味着上游企业可以偏离均衡而获利。我将这一不存在的结果与之前在相关模型中发现均衡的论文进行了对比。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
International Journal of Industrial Organization
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