This paper addresses the limitations of Modern Money Theory (MMT) as a guide to development policy. We explore two main questions on this topic: whether policies championed by MMT advocates (i) ought to be implemented in low- and middle-income economies and (ii) can be implemented. In relation to the first question, we argue that the MMT literature mischaracterises the essence of the development challenge for low- and middle-income economies. Our argument is that the chief long-run growth challenge faced by developing countries concerns structural transformation rather than general aggregate demand insufficiency. We use several formal representations of the consumption–investment trade-off in growth theory, found in the Harrod–Domar growth model, the Feldman–Mahalanobis model and Kalecki’s 1963 growth model to illustrate this point. Concerning the second question, we argue that even if MMT had the correct diagnosis of the principal growth challenge faced by developing countries, its chief policy recommendations would likely be counter-productive if implemented outside of select advanced economies. We draw from the international economics literature on currency hierarchy and exchange rate volatility to illustrate this point.
{"title":"Weaknesses of MMT as a guide to development policy","authors":"A. Aboobaker, E. Ugurlu","doi":"10.7275/18878576","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7275/18878576","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This paper addresses the limitations of Modern Money Theory (MMT) as a guide to development policy. We explore two main questions on this topic: whether policies championed by MMT advocates (i) ought to be implemented in low- and middle-income economies and (ii) can be implemented. In relation to the first question, we argue that the MMT literature mischaracterises the essence of the development challenge for low- and middle-income economies. Our argument is that the chief long-run growth challenge faced by developing countries concerns structural transformation rather than general aggregate demand insufficiency. We use several formal representations of the consumption–investment trade-off in growth theory, found in the Harrod–Domar growth model, the Feldman–Mahalanobis model and Kalecki’s 1963 growth model to illustrate this point. Concerning the second question, we argue that even if MMT had the correct diagnosis of the principal growth challenge faced by developing countries, its chief policy recommendations would likely be counter-productive if implemented outside of select advanced economies. We draw from the international economics literature on currency hierarchy and exchange rate volatility to illustrate this point.","PeriodicalId":48156,"journal":{"name":"Cambridge Journal of Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45177721","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper addresses the limitations of Modern Money Theory (MMT) as a guide to development policy. We explore two main questions on this topic: whether policies championed by MMT advocates (i) ought to be implemented in low- and middle-income economies and (ii) can be implemented. In relation to the first question, we argue that the MMT literature mischaracterises the essence of the development challenge for low- and middle-income economies. Our argument is that the chief long-run growth challenge faced by developing countries concerns structural transformation rather than general aggregate demand insufficiency. We use several formal representations of the consumption–investment trade-off in growth theory, found in the Harrod–Domar growth model, the Feldman–Mahalanobis model and Kalecki’s 1963 growth model to illustrate this point. Concerning the second question, we argue that even if MMT had the correct diagnosis of the principal growth challenge faced by developing countries, its chief policy recommendations would likely be counter-productive if implemented outside of select advanced economies. We draw from the international economics literature on currency hierarchy and exchange rate volatility to illustrate this point.
{"title":"Weaknesses of MMT as a guide to development policy","authors":"Adam Aboobaker, Esra Nur Ugurlu","doi":"10.1093/cje/bead009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bead009","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper addresses the limitations of Modern Money Theory (MMT) as a guide to development policy. We explore two main questions on this topic: whether policies championed by MMT advocates (i) ought to be implemented in low- and middle-income economies and (ii) can be implemented. In relation to the first question, we argue that the MMT literature mischaracterises the essence of the development challenge for low- and middle-income economies. Our argument is that the chief long-run growth challenge faced by developing countries concerns structural transformation rather than general aggregate demand insufficiency. We use several formal representations of the consumption–investment trade-off in growth theory, found in the Harrod–Domar growth model, the Feldman–Mahalanobis model and Kalecki’s 1963 growth model to illustrate this point. Concerning the second question, we argue that even if MMT had the correct diagnosis of the principal growth challenge faced by developing countries, its chief policy recommendations would likely be counter-productive if implemented outside of select advanced economies. We draw from the international economics literature on currency hierarchy and exchange rate volatility to illustrate this point.","PeriodicalId":48156,"journal":{"name":"Cambridge Journal of Economics","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135972233","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
I. Clark, Alan Collins, James Hunter, R. Pickford, Jack Barratt, H. Fearnall-Williams
The growing significance of non-compliant employment practice in the British economy has motivated scrutiny of the effectiveness of current regulation. In some markets, charges of labour exploitation, underpayment of the national minimum wage and associated ‘wage theft’ from workers are rife where business operations are characterised by academics, regulators and stakeholders as exuding ‘permissive visibility’. The current landscape of enforcement and regulation of informal business and employment practices features complex structural and operational issues for regulators subject to tight resource constraints. These enable permissiveness and offer scope for strategic regulatory tolerance of some violation types, possibly to raise compliance rates for other types of violations. Drawing on extensive empirical evidence and qualitative data sources in one market sector (hand car washes), this study investigates some key hypotheses focussing on compliance and responses by businesses and regulators to the extant regulatory regime. These inform a pragmatic institutional analysis considering the merits of some movement towards a single enforcement body instead of the existing arrangements featuring multiple regulatory institutions.
{"title":"Persistently non-compliant employment practice in the informal economy: permissive visibility in a multiple regulator setting","authors":"I. Clark, Alan Collins, James Hunter, R. Pickford, Jack Barratt, H. Fearnall-Williams","doi":"10.1093/cje/bead007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bead007","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 The growing significance of non-compliant employment practice in the British economy has motivated scrutiny of the effectiveness of current regulation. In some markets, charges of labour exploitation, underpayment of the national minimum wage and associated ‘wage theft’ from workers are rife where business operations are characterised by academics, regulators and stakeholders as exuding ‘permissive visibility’. The current landscape of enforcement and regulation of informal business and employment practices features complex structural and operational issues for regulators subject to tight resource constraints. These enable permissiveness and offer scope for strategic regulatory tolerance of some violation types, possibly to raise compliance rates for other types of violations. Drawing on extensive empirical evidence and qualitative data sources in one market sector (hand car washes), this study investigates some key hypotheses focussing on compliance and responses by businesses and regulators to the extant regulatory regime. These inform a pragmatic institutional analysis considering the merits of some movement towards a single enforcement body instead of the existing arrangements featuring multiple regulatory institutions.","PeriodicalId":48156,"journal":{"name":"Cambridge Journal of Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41628283","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Prominent economists may provide expert guidance to assist the public in forming expectations. Using both Keynes’ theory of conventional expectations formation and lay epistemology, this article argues that prominent economists may have sufficient ‘epistemic authority’ to encourage a self-fulfilling ‘placebo/nocebo effect’, meaning that widely and confidently-held expectations congruent with prominent economists’ guidance encourage economic behaviours that promote the economic outcomes predicted by these economists. This article examines the peripherality of pluralism in the economics discipline as supporting these self-fulfilling dynamics insofar as it: (i) contributes to the public’s capacity to identify and attribute epistemic authority to prominent economists, (ii) encourages sufficient convergence of prominent economists’ expectational guidance that the public can adopt coherent and confident expectations based on this guidance and (iii) facilitates the public dissemination of this expectational guidance. The conclusion considers Keynesian ‘abnormal times’ (such as a Minskian expectational scenario) that may discredit the epistemic authority of prominent economists (and perhaps expert economic knowledge in general) and considers some implications of these circumstances for disciplinary pluralism.
{"title":"Keynesian expectations, epistemic authority and pluralism in economics: placebo and nocebo effects in normal and abnormal times","authors":"Ellen D Russell","doi":"10.1093/cje/bead001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bead001","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Prominent economists may provide expert guidance to assist the public in forming expectations. Using both Keynes’ theory of conventional expectations formation and lay epistemology, this article argues that prominent economists may have sufficient ‘epistemic authority’ to encourage a self-fulfilling ‘placebo/nocebo effect’, meaning that widely and confidently-held expectations congruent with prominent economists’ guidance encourage economic behaviours that promote the economic outcomes predicted by these economists. This article examines the peripherality of pluralism in the economics discipline as supporting these self-fulfilling dynamics insofar as it: (i) contributes to the public’s capacity to identify and attribute epistemic authority to prominent economists, (ii) encourages sufficient convergence of prominent economists’ expectational guidance that the public can adopt coherent and confident expectations based on this guidance and (iii) facilitates the public dissemination of this expectational guidance. The conclusion considers Keynesian ‘abnormal times’ (such as a Minskian expectational scenario) that may discredit the epistemic authority of prominent economists (and perhaps expert economic knowledge in general) and considers some implications of these circumstances for disciplinary pluralism.","PeriodicalId":48156,"journal":{"name":"Cambridge Journal of Economics","volume":"77 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135528859","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Concepts like ‘creative city’, ‘world city’ and ‘eco city’ arrive with loud celebration, but fade in just a few years. In recent years, ‘smart city’ has been a buzzword. As each fad emerges, urbanists debate its meaning and implications. However, why so many urban concepts circulate at all is rarely focused on. This study attempts to answer this question based on the Marxian view of the built environment as a fixed capital. We focus on the differences between the built environment and other types of fixed capital, and show how these differences render capital circulation in the built environment sector more fragile. We claim that such fragility cannot be fixed within the circuit of capital, so external intervention is necessary and deployment of catchy urban concepts is a resorted method of such intervention.
{"title":"Smart city, eco city, world city, creative city, et cetera et cetera: a Marxian interpretation of urban discourses’ short lifecycles","authors":"J. Sonn, Joonha Park","doi":"10.1093/cje/beac069","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/beac069","url":null,"abstract":"Concepts like ‘creative city’, ‘world city’ and ‘eco city’ arrive with loud celebration, but fade in just a few years. In recent years, ‘smart city’ has been a buzzword. As each fad emerges, urbanists debate its meaning and implications. However, why so many urban concepts circulate at all is rarely focused on. This study attempts to answer this question based on the Marxian view of the built environment as a fixed capital. We focus on the differences between the built environment and other types of fixed capital, and show how these differences render capital circulation in the built environment sector more fragile. We claim that such fragility cannot be fixed within the circuit of capital, so external intervention is necessary and deployment of catchy urban concepts is a resorted method of such intervention.","PeriodicalId":48156,"journal":{"name":"Cambridge Journal of Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48444324","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
G. Scheiring, A. Azarova, D. Irdam, K. Doniec, M. Mckee, D. Stuckler, Lawrence King
An unprecedented mortality crisis struck Eastern Europe during the 1990s, causing around seven million excess deaths. We enter the debate about the causes of this crisis by performing the first quantitative analysis of the association between deindustrialisation and mortality in Eastern Europe. We develop a theoretical framework identifying deindustrialisation as a process of social disintegration rooted in the lived experience of shock therapy. We test this theory relying on a novel multilevel dataset, fitting survival and panel models covering 52 towns and 42,800 people in 1989–95 in Hungary and 514 towns in European Russia in 1991–99. The results show that deindustrialisation was directly associated with male mortality and indirectly mediated by hazardous drinking as a stress-coping strategy. The association is not a spurious result of a legacy of dysfunctional working-class health culture aggravated by low alcohol prices during the early years of the transition. Both countries experienced deindustrialisation, but social and economic policies have offset Hungary’s more immense industrial employment loss. The results are relevant to health crises in other regions, including the deaths of despair plaguing the American Rust Belt. Policies addressing the underlying causes of stress and despair are vital to save lives during painful economic transformations.
{"title":"Deindustrialisation and the post-socialist mortality crisis","authors":"G. Scheiring, A. Azarova, D. Irdam, K. Doniec, M. Mckee, D. Stuckler, Lawrence King","doi":"10.1093/cje/beac072","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/beac072","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 An unprecedented mortality crisis struck Eastern Europe during the 1990s, causing around seven million excess deaths. We enter the debate about the causes of this crisis by performing the first quantitative analysis of the association between deindustrialisation and mortality in Eastern Europe. We develop a theoretical framework identifying deindustrialisation as a process of social disintegration rooted in the lived experience of shock therapy. We test this theory relying on a novel multilevel dataset, fitting survival and panel models covering 52 towns and 42,800 people in 1989–95 in Hungary and 514 towns in European Russia in 1991–99. The results show that deindustrialisation was directly associated with male mortality and indirectly mediated by hazardous drinking as a stress-coping strategy. The association is not a spurious result of a legacy of dysfunctional working-class health culture aggravated by low alcohol prices during the early years of the transition. Both countries experienced deindustrialisation, but social and economic policies have offset Hungary’s more immense industrial employment loss. The results are relevant to health crises in other regions, including the deaths of despair plaguing the American Rust Belt. Policies addressing the underlying causes of stress and despair are vital to save lives during painful economic transformations.","PeriodicalId":48156,"journal":{"name":"Cambridge Journal of Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44645031","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Both sides in the U.S. Civil War financed military spending by issuing new fiat currencies. The Union ‘greenback’ underwent moderate inflation (by wartime standards), but the Confederate ‘greyback’ suffered hyperinflation. Existing explanations for these price movements typically treat only one of the two cases and adopt either a quantity theory or rational expectations approach. We compare Union and Confederate policies directly and highlight the importance of taxation for assuring the value of inconvertible money. Combining monetary and fiscal history literatures, we find that tax policies were determined by long-term development of democratic governing institutions. Higher levels of democracy in the North, as compared to the slaveholding South, meant greater tax policy legitimacy and administrative competence. The Union drew on this legacy to back its money effectively, while the Confederacy failed to do so. We contribute to credit theories of money by drawing attention to the political determinants of effective fiscal policy.
{"title":"The Money War: democracy, taxes and inflation in the U.S. Civil War","authors":"Ariel Ron, Sofia Valeonti","doi":"10.1093/cje/bead006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bead006","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Both sides in the U.S. Civil War financed military spending by issuing new fiat currencies. The Union ‘greenback’ underwent moderate inflation (by wartime standards), but the Confederate ‘greyback’ suffered hyperinflation. Existing explanations for these price movements typically treat only one of the two cases and adopt either a quantity theory or rational expectations approach. We compare Union and Confederate policies directly and highlight the importance of taxation for assuring the value of inconvertible money. Combining monetary and fiscal history literatures, we find that tax policies were determined by long-term development of democratic governing institutions. Higher levels of democracy in the North, as compared to the slaveholding South, meant greater tax policy legitimacy and administrative competence. The Union drew on this legacy to back its money effectively, while the Confederacy failed to do so. We contribute to credit theories of money by drawing attention to the political determinants of effective fiscal policy.","PeriodicalId":48156,"journal":{"name":"Cambridge Journal of Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44842864","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract There exists a long-standing debate about the influence of ideology in economics. Surprisingly, however, there are very few studies that provide systematic empirical evidence on this critical issue. Using an online randomised controlled experiment involving 2,425 economists in 19 countries, we examine the effect of ideological bias among economists. Participants were asked to evaluate statements from prominent economists on different topics, while source attribution for each statement was randomised without participants’ knowledge. For each statement, participants either received a mainstream source, an ideologically different less-/non-mainstream source, or no source. We find that changing source attributions from mainstream to less-/non-mainstream, or removing them, significantly reduces economists’ reported agreement with statements. This contradicts the image economists have/report of themselves, with 82% of participants reporting that in evaluating a statement one should only pay attention to its content. Our analysis provides clear evidence for the existence of ideological bias as well as of authority bias among economists. We also find significant heterogeneity in our results by gender, country, PhD completion country, research area and undergraduate major, with patterns consistent with the existence of ideological bias.
{"title":"Who said or what said? Estimating ideological bias in views among economists","authors":"Moshen Javdani, Ha-Joon Chang","doi":"10.1093/cje/beac071","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/beac071","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract There exists a long-standing debate about the influence of ideology in economics. Surprisingly, however, there are very few studies that provide systematic empirical evidence on this critical issue. Using an online randomised controlled experiment involving 2,425 economists in 19 countries, we examine the effect of ideological bias among economists. Participants were asked to evaluate statements from prominent economists on different topics, while source attribution for each statement was randomised without participants’ knowledge. For each statement, participants either received a mainstream source, an ideologically different less-/non-mainstream source, or no source. We find that changing source attributions from mainstream to less-/non-mainstream, or removing them, significantly reduces economists’ reported agreement with statements. This contradicts the image economists have/report of themselves, with 82% of participants reporting that in evaluating a statement one should only pay attention to its content. Our analysis provides clear evidence for the existence of ideological bias as well as of authority bias among economists. We also find significant heterogeneity in our results by gender, country, PhD completion country, research area and undergraduate major, with patterns consistent with the existence of ideological bias.","PeriodicalId":48156,"journal":{"name":"Cambridge Journal of Economics","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135742778","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper deals with two intrinsically linked issues: the endogeneity of the demand regime and the personal distribution impact on aggregate demand. By assuming that saving is a function of personal rather than functional income distribution, an increase of the labour share is effective in boosting consumption and aggregate demand, not per se, but only as long as it reduces personal inequality. As the labour share increases, both the demand regime type—the sign of the slope of the demand schedule—and its strength—the size of the slope of the demand schedule - can endogenously change. Concerning the former, there can be a threshold value for the wage share beyond which there is a shift from wage-led to profit-led demand. The analysis shows that, unlike most Kaleckian models, profit inequality is just as important as wage inequality in determining the demand regime type and its strength.
{"title":"Personal income distribution and the endogeneity of the demand regime","authors":"Lorenzo Tonni","doi":"10.1093/cje/beac059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/beac059","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper deals with two intrinsically linked issues: the endogeneity of the demand regime and the personal distribution impact on aggregate demand. By assuming that saving is a function of personal rather than functional income distribution, an increase of the labour share is effective in boosting consumption and aggregate demand, not per se, but only as long as it reduces personal inequality. As the labour share increases, both the demand regime type—the sign of the slope of the demand schedule—and its strength—the size of the slope of the demand schedule - can endogenously change. Concerning the former, there can be a threshold value for the wage share beyond which there is a shift from wage-led to profit-led demand. The analysis shows that, unlike most Kaleckian models, profit inequality is just as important as wage inequality in determining the demand regime type and its strength.","PeriodicalId":48156,"journal":{"name":"Cambridge Journal of Economics","volume":"154 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136122158","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article contributes to the literature on complexity and macroeconomic models by exploring the analytical relationship and tensions between complex phenomena and macroeconomics. By evaluating the properties of organised complexity, this article suggests alternative strategies for analysing the macroeconomy. Drawing on F. A. Hayek’s notion of organised complexity, I examine how its causal properties relate to the analytical criteria and assumptions that contemporary macroeconomic models use. The purpose is twofold: first, I associate the properties of complexity to the idea of the macroeconomy as an emergent totality arising from the causal interplay between individuals and the organising structure. This conceptually challenges modern macro and frames analytical tensions between complexity and macroeconomic analysis. Second, introducing complexity facilitates breaking away from current analytical and conceptual straitjackets in macroeconomics. Economic inquiry requires looking for alternative ways beyond standard models to analyse the macroeconomy as an emergent totality. This suggests stepping away from current formalistic methods and radical reductionism, in favour of unconventional strategies and approaches that are sensitive to rules, structures, and the causal properties of organised complexity.
{"title":"Complexity defying macroeconomics","authors":"Pablo Paniagua","doi":"10.1093/cje/bead002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/cje/bead002","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 This article contributes to the literature on complexity and macroeconomic models by exploring the analytical relationship and tensions between complex phenomena and macroeconomics. By evaluating the properties of organised complexity, this article suggests alternative strategies for analysing the macroeconomy. Drawing on F. A. Hayek’s notion of organised complexity, I examine how its causal properties relate to the analytical criteria and assumptions that contemporary macroeconomic models use. The purpose is twofold: first, I associate the properties of complexity to the idea of the macroeconomy as an emergent totality arising from the causal interplay between individuals and the organising structure. This conceptually challenges modern macro and frames analytical tensions between complexity and macroeconomic analysis. Second, introducing complexity facilitates breaking away from current analytical and conceptual straitjackets in macroeconomics. Economic inquiry requires looking for alternative ways beyond standard models to analyse the macroeconomy as an emergent totality. This suggests stepping away from current formalistic methods and radical reductionism, in favour of unconventional strategies and approaches that are sensitive to rules, structures, and the causal properties of organised complexity.","PeriodicalId":48156,"journal":{"name":"Cambridge Journal of Economics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.0,"publicationDate":"2023-02-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45504671","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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