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The ‘General Theory 4.0’ research programme: macroeconomics when Keynes eventually escapes Debreu and meets Ulysses and Einstein “通论4.0”研究计划:凯恩斯最终逃离德布鲁,遇到尤利西斯和爱因斯坦时的宏观经济学
IF 2 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-09 DOI: 10.1093/cje/beac065
T. Togati
In this paper, I propose a new research programme, the ‘General Theory (GT) 4.0’, aimed at restoring the academic influence of Keynes, against many contemporary misunderstandings, by defending his view that macroeconomics is an autonomous discipline with respect to standard theory. This paper focuses on two specific, complementary lines of defence. The first is to show that the metaphor of ‘Ulysses’ journey home’ for understanding Keynes, recently proposed in the literature, provides an intuitive, plastic representation of his major autonomy claims. The second is to suggest that such claims are not ad hoc, but in tune with the postulates of a scientific revolutionary paradigm, such as the relativity theory, reflecting the fact that Keynes and Einstein—despite obvious differences in their respective domains—shared the same ontology, the metaphysical world view of time and epistemology.
在这篇论文中,我提出了一个新的研究计划,即“通论(GT)4.0”,旨在通过捍卫凯恩斯的观点,即宏观经济学是一门相对于标准理论的自主学科,来恢复凯恩斯的学术影响力,克服当代的许多误解。本文件侧重于两条具体的、相辅相成的防线。首先是表明,最近在文献中提出的理解凯恩斯的“尤利西斯回家之旅”隐喻,为凯恩斯的主要自治主张提供了直观、可塑的表现。第二种说法是,这种说法不是临时的,而是符合科学革命范式的假设,如相对论,反映了凯恩斯和爱因斯坦尽管在各自的领域存在明显差异,但共享相同的本体论,即形而上学的时间世界观和认识论。
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引用次数: 0
Systemic stablecoin and the brave new world of digital money 系统稳定币与数字货币的勇敢新世界
IF 2 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-09 DOI: 10.1093/cje/beac060
J. Morgan
New forms of money invite informed speculation regarding future possibilities. In this extended commentary, we explore five issue-areas that the growth of cryptocurrency and, more particularly, stablecoin have evoked. This new form of digital money has the potential to change the form and functioning of payments technologies and thus alter not just how something is paid for but what can be paid for. Moreover, as the now shelved plans for Facebook/Meta’s Libra/Diem indicate, there is scope for a major corporation or coalition of corporations to issue their own stablecoin and this greatly increases the likelihood of a ‘systemic’ stablecoin. This, in turn, could change where power resides and who exercises it in banking, finance and society. Concern with power leads to issues regarding the nature of change and thus to concern with possible financial, economic and social disruptions ranging across the nature of trust, bank business models, the effectiveness of central bank policy and security of payments systems. Given these issues, cryptocurrency and stablecoin have become a growing concern for regulators and this concern extends to the case for a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC). Finally, a new form of money invites discussion of its implications for the nature of money and this leads to matters of philosophical or social theory interest.
新的货币形式引发了对未来可能性的知情猜测。在这篇扩展的评论中,我们探讨了加密货币,尤其是稳定币的增长所引发的五个问题领域。这种新形式的数字货币有可能改变支付技术的形式和功能,从而不仅改变支付方式,还改变支付方式。此外,正如目前搁置的Facebook/Meta的Libra/Diem计划所表明的那样,大公司或公司联盟有发行自己的稳定币的空间,这大大增加了“系统性”稳定币的可能性。反过来,这可能会改变权力所在的地方以及谁在银行、金融和社会中行使权力。对权力的担忧导致了与变革性质有关的问题,从而导致了对可能的金融、经济和社会破坏的担忧,这些破坏包括信任的性质、银行业务模式、央行政策的有效性和支付系统的安全性。鉴于这些问题,加密货币和稳定币已成为监管机构日益关注的问题,这种担忧延伸到零售央行数字货币(CBDC)。最后,一种新的货币形式引起了人们对其对货币本质的影响的讨论,这导致了哲学或社会理论感兴趣的问题。
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引用次数: 4
Financial cycles and fiscal policy in developing and emerging economies: an evaluation of the Brazilian case (1997–2018) 发展中经济体和新兴经济体的金融周期和财政政策:对巴西案例的评估(1997-2018)
IF 2 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-09 DOI: 10.1093/cje/beac067
Dyeggo Rocha Guedes, André Moreira Cunha, Luiza Peruffo
This article investigates the existence of a link between financial cycles and fiscal cycles, and discusses possible policy implications for developing and emerging economies (DEEs). It empirically analyses the impact of financial cycle shocks on the short-term dynamics of Brazil’s fiscal policy by estimating a vector autoregressive (VAR) model for the period 1997–2018. The results indicate that financial cycles have pro-cyclical effects on the fiscal policy. This suggests that a fiscal policy should consider not only the cyclical behaviour of the output, but also its role in minimising financial factors. By explicitly linking Brazil’s fiscal performance with Brazil’s higher vulnerability to the financial cycle, this article adds to the literature that strives to understand the policy implications of the financialisation process in DEEs. It also contributes to the more general empirical literature on DEEs’ fiscal dynamics.
本文研究了金融周期和财政周期之间是否存在联系,并讨论了对发展中经济体和新兴经济体可能产生的政策影响。它通过估计1997-2018年期间的向量自回归(VAR)模型,实证分析了金融周期冲击对巴西财政政策短期动态的影响。研究结果表明,金融周期对财政政策具有顺周期效应。这表明,财政政策不仅应考虑产出的周期性行为,还应考虑其在最小化金融因素方面的作用。通过明确将巴西的财政表现与巴西对金融周期的更高脆弱性联系起来,本文为努力理解DEE中金融化过程的政策含义的文献增添了内容。它还为有关DEE财政动态的更一般的实证文献做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 0
Thorstein Veblen on the cultural and economic significance of modern sports 论现代体育的文化和经济意义
IF 2 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-02-07 DOI: 10.1093/cje/beac066
Luke Petach, J. Raines
This paper adopts an evolutionary institutionalist approach to explain the persistent popularity of sports in the USA. Veblen’s writing in Theory of the Leisure Class suggests two cultural and economic functions of modern sports: as a mode of preservation of leisure class values and as a means of conspicuous waste. Our analysis emphasises the role of sports as an institution for the preservation of leisure class values in general, and what Veblen terms ‘predatory prowess’ in particular. We identify several contemporary examples of Veblenian cultural traits that explain the affinity for sports in America and illustrate the continued applicability of Veblen’s analysis. Finally, we offer support for the Veblenian view by expanding the scope of our argument to the broader evolutionary institutionalist literature.
本文采用一种进化的制度主义方法来解释体育在美国持续流行的原因。维布伦在《休闲阶层理论》一书中提出了现代体育的两种文化和经济功能:作为一种维护休闲阶层价值的模式和一种明显浪费的手段。我们的分析强调了体育作为一种保护休闲阶层价值观的机构的作用,尤其是维布伦所说的“掠夺性力量”。我们确定了几个维布伦文化特征的当代例子,这些例子解释了美国对体育的喜爱,并说明了维布伦分析的持续适用性。最后,我们通过将我们的论点范围扩大到更广泛的进化制度主义文献,来支持维布莱尼的观点。
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引用次数: 0
Alfred Marshall, Allyn Young and business size 阿尔弗雷德·马歇尔,阿林·杨和企业规模
2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-25 DOI: 10.1093/cje/beac070
Ramesh Chandra
Abstract Many prominent thinkers such as Karl Marx and Joseph Schumpeter thought that monopoly capitalism would eventually replace competitive capitalism. Several subsequent economists like Antoine Cournot and Piero Sraffa also maintained that increasing returns are incompatible with competition. This paper examines Alfred Marshall’s and Allyn Young’s views on whether monopoly capitalism is inevitable and whether increasing returns are incompatible with competition. Both Marshall and Young took their data from real life and were of the view that the economy was dominated not by big but small and medium firms. Both built on Adam Smith’s analysis of the division of labour and thought that the dominant tendency in the system was that of industrial specialisation and differentiation. Even if some firms producing standardised products such as steel or raw materials became big, most specialised firms remained small, and both small and big firms coexisted in a framework of effective competition. Advent of imperfect competition did not mean absence of competition but rather its imperfect working.
马克思、熊彼特等著名思想家认为,垄断资本主义最终将取代竞争资本主义。后来的几位经济学家,如Antoine Cournot和Piero straffa也坚持认为,增加的回报与竞争是不相容的。本文考察了马歇尔(Alfred Marshall)和杨格(Allyn Young)关于垄断资本主义是否不可避免以及收益增加是否与竞争不相容的观点。马歇尔和杨都从现实生活中获取数据,并认为经济不是由大企业而是由中小型企业主导的。两者都建立在亚当•斯密对劳动分工的分析之上,并认为该体系的主导趋势是产业专业化和差异化。即使一些生产标准化产品(如钢铁或原材料)的公司变得很大,大多数专业公司仍然很小,小公司和大公司都在有效竞争的框架下共存。不完全竞争的出现并不意味着没有竞争,而是意味着竞争的不完善。
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引用次数: 0
Setting the record straight on the recovery from the 1920–1921 recession 为从1920-1921年的经济衰退中复苏铺平了道路
2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-18 DOI: 10.1093/cje/beac063
Ahmad Borazan
Abstract The US recovery from the 1920–21 recession has been presented as a triumph of laissez-faire policies and a serious challenge to Keynesian economics. This study interrogates this claim by using previously unutilised data and examines the historical development of the early 1920s recession and recovery. The study refutes the laissez-faire view and shows that the recovery indeed fits Keynes’s perspective. The deflationary recession was largely engineered by the Federal Reserve a la 1980s Volker disinflation. The recovery closely followed the reversal of tight monetary policy and was propelled by exceptionally long pent-up private consumption and residential spending. The recovery initiated the Roaring Twenties boom of weakened organised labour, rising income inequality and mounting private debt. This private debt-led boom proved unsustainable and was fraught with risks that contributed to the severity of the Great Depression. Although the recovery was not driven by fiscal policy, it cannot be seen as driven by price flexibility either.
美国从1920年至1921年的经济衰退中复苏,一直被认为是自由放任政策的胜利,也是对凯恩斯主义经济学的严重挑战。本研究通过使用以前未使用的数据来质疑这一说法,并考察了20世纪20年代初经济衰退和复苏的历史发展。这项研究驳斥了自由放任的观点,并表明复苏确实符合凯恩斯的观点。通货紧缩的衰退在很大程度上是由美联储在上世纪80年代的沃尔克反通胀政策中策划的。紧跟着紧缩货币政策的逆转,经济复苏受到长期被压抑的私人消费和居民支出的推动。经济复苏引发了“咆哮的20年代”(Roaring Twenties)的繁荣,当时有组织的劳工力量减弱,收入不平等加剧,私人债务不断增加。事实证明,这种私人债务主导的繁荣是不可持续的,而且充满了导致大萧条严重程度的风险。尽管经济复苏不是由财政政策推动的,但也不能认为是由价格灵活性推动的。
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引用次数: 0
The changing face of anti-trust in the world of Big Tech: Collusion versus Monopolisation 大型科技世界反垄断的变脸:共谋与垄断
IF 2 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-14 DOI: 10.1093/cje/beac046
Prishnee Armoogum, S. Davies, Franco Mariuzzo
This paper presents new evidence on two key developments in worldwide anti-trust in the last decade: (i) a downturn in the number of cartels detected by competition authorities and (ii) exponential growth in cases of monopolisation/abuse of dominance. Big Tech firms have been, undoubtedly, the main focus of the latter but almost totally absent in the former. These two developments offer perspectives on the description of Monopoly Capitalism as set out by Keith Cowling 40 years ago. Superficially at least, this seems to deny the prediction of ever-widening collusion, but, on the other hand, it resonates with the prediction of increasingly unassailable dominant firms. We suggest that the two trends can best be understood by the emergence of the Big Tech giants who have established dominance by exceeding tipping points in many markets. In turn, this leads to an alternative form of collusion—‘mutual forbearance’ in which firms back away from aggressive competition in the other giants’ areas of strength. Given this dominance, they do not need collusion—put simply, no sizeable rivals are remaining with whom they need to collude.
本文就过去十年中全球反垄断的两个关键发展提供了新的证据:(i)竞争主管部门发现的卡特尔数量下降;(ii)垄断/滥用主导地位案件呈指数级增长。毫无疑问,大型科技公司一直是后者的主要关注点,但在前者中几乎完全没有。这两个发展为40年前Keith Cowling对垄断资本主义的描述提供了视角。至少从表面上看,这似乎否认了共谋不断扩大的预测,但另一方面,它与日益无懈可击的主导企业的预测产生了共鸣。我们认为,这两种趋势最好通过大型科技巨头的出现来理解,他们通过在许多市场超过临界点来确立主导地位。反过来,这又导致了另一种共谋形式——“相互宽容”,即企业在其他巨头的实力领域退出激烈竞争。考虑到这种主导地位,他们不需要勾结——简单地说,他们需要勾结的大型竞争对手已经所剩无几。
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引用次数: 1
Big technology and data privacy 大技术和数据隐私
IF 2 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-14 DOI: 10.1093/cje/beac052
Martin J Conyon
This paper discusses big technology and data privacy. First, we show the rapid rise in technology firms since the millennium. Using Facebook as a case study (the most popular social network in 2022), we show its reliance on personally identifiable data collection and advertising. Second, we investigate the Cambridge Analytica data breach. We show that stock prices fall in response to the data breach using event study methods. Cumulative abnormal returns decline by about 9.8% in the event window. Third, we discuss policy options in response to data privacy concerns. The GDPR provides a legislative model for protecting individually identifiable data.
本文讨论了大技术与数据隐私。首先,我们展示了自千禧年以来科技公司的迅速崛起。以Facebook为例(2022年最受欢迎的社交网络),我们展示了它对个人身份数据收集和广告的依赖。其次,我们调查剑桥分析公司的数据泄露事件。我们使用事件研究方法表明,股票价格会因数据泄露而下跌。事件窗口期累计异常收益下降约9.8%。第三,我们讨论了应对数据隐私问题的政策选择。GDPR为保护个人可识别数据提供了立法模式。
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引用次数: 0
Ramsey and Keynes revisited 重新审视了拉姆齐和凯恩斯
2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/cje/beac068
Bill Gerrard
Abstract This paper re-assesses Ramsey’s influence on Keynes. It is argued that the Standard View has restricted attention to the implications for probability theory of Ramsey’s criticisms of Keynes’s concepts of logical probability-relations and non-numerical probabilities. Building on the work of both Coates (1996) and Misak (2016), an Alternative View is proposed in which Ramsey’s influence on Keynes is seen as principally philosophical. Specifically, the Alternative View recognises Ramsey’s adoption of the logical pragmatist philosophy of C. S. Peirce from 1924 onwards with a dispositional theory of belief in which beliefs are treated not only as useful mental habits that can successfully guide future actions but also as able to provide true explanations of observed empirical facts. The textual evidence is examined, particularly Keynes’s biographical essay on Ramsey, which, it is argued, supports the contention that Keynes fully appreciated and was sympathetic to Ramsey’s pragmatism especially the importance of vague knowledge and the need for the development of human logic as the study of reasonable human behaviour.
本文重新评价了拉姆齐对凯恩斯的影响。有人认为,标准观点限制了人们对拉姆齐对凯恩斯逻辑概率关系和非数值概率概念的批评对概率论的影响的关注。在科茨(1996)和米萨克(2016)的研究基础上,提出了另一种观点,认为拉姆齐对凯恩斯的影响主要是哲学上的。具体来说,另一种观点承认拉姆齐从1924年起采用了c.s.皮尔斯的逻辑实用主义哲学,并提出了一种信念的性格理论,在这种理论中,信念不仅被视为有用的心理习惯,可以成功地指导未来的行动,而且能够为观察到的经验事实提供真正的解释。考察了文本证据,特别是凯恩斯关于拉姆齐的传记文章,它认为,支持凯恩斯完全欣赏和同情拉姆齐的实用主义的论点,特别是模糊知识的重要性和发展人类逻辑作为合理人类行为研究的需要。
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引用次数: 1
Stratification mechanisms in labour market matching of migrants 流动人口劳动力市场匹配的分层机制
IF 2 2区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2022-12-07 DOI: 10.1093/cje/beac058
Merve Burnazoglu
I aim to challenge the standard framework in which systematic exclusion is mistakenly characterised as only a frictional phenomenon that fails to be captured in migrants’ labour market matching mechanisms. Societies organise and rank people in a hierarchical way, not only in terms of individual differences and characteristics but with respect to social groups and categories of people. These macro patterns systematically subject some migrant groups to different forms of exclusion. Social stratification, explained in terms of social identity-based institutional structures, organises labour markets into different destinations like clubs with sharply different sets of opportunities. It functions like a trap for migrants: it reinforces itself by reproducing systems of exclusion and creates dilemmas for migrants. Can migrants organise themselves to avoid such traps? I show that exclusion is endogenous to employment as a type of good in the standard goods typology. Treating different types of employment opportunities as being like clubs, I investigate how migrants join or create alternative employment clubs as a response to real or perceived exclusion from native employment clubs. If these alternative clubs are ‘sticky’ and discourage migrants from trying to join natives’ exclusive employment clubs, the trap becomes inescapable. For migrants to escape the stratification trap, employment should be seen not only as an investment but as a collective action problem structurally targeting exclusion.
我的目标是挑战标准框架,在这个框架中,系统性排斥被错误地描述为一种摩擦现象,无法在移民的劳动力市场匹配机制中得到体现。社会不仅根据个体差异和特征,而且根据社会群体和人的类别,以等级的方式组织和排列人们。这些宏观模式系统地使一些移民群体受到不同形式的排斥。社会分层,用基于社会身份的制度结构来解释,将劳动力市场组织成不同的目的地,就像拥有截然不同的机会的俱乐部一样。它的功能就像一个移民陷阱:它通过再现排斥制度来强化自己,并为移民制造困境。移民们能组织起来避免这些陷阱吗?我表明,排除是内生的就业作为一种类型的好在标准商品类型学。将不同类型的就业机会视为俱乐部,我调查了移民如何加入或创建替代就业俱乐部,作为对真实或感知被本地就业俱乐部排斥的回应。如果这些另类俱乐部具有“粘性”,使移民不愿尝试加入当地人的专属就业俱乐部,那么陷阱就不可避免了。为了使移徙者摆脱分层陷阱,就业不仅应被视为一种投资,而且应被视为一种以结构性排斥为目标的集体行动问题。
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引用次数: 1
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Cambridge Journal of Economics
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