International Review of Financial Analysis最新文献

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Exploring the impact of economic recession indicators on global financial markets: A QVAR analysis

IF 7.5 1区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

International Review of Financial Analysis

Pub Date : 2025-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2025.103966

Emre Bulut , Cumali Marangoz

This paper attempts to examine the impact of the connection and spillover effects between nine major stock exchange indices (namely, the US, the UK, China, Canada, Switzerland, Germany, India, Japan, and Hong Kong) and two economic recession indicators, specifically the SRRI and GRI, by employing the quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) method from May 1992 to December 1993. In a globally connected world, it is essential to comprehend the transmission and magnitude of shocks among financial markets and to understand spillover effects. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to comprehensively analyze the impact of the SAHM Rule Recession (SRRI) and GDP-Based Recession (GRI) Indices on the US stock index and its subsequent influence on worldwide financial markets. The findings demonstrate that economic recession indices significantly affect stock indices, especially in countries with close economic ties, such as China, Hong Kong, and India. In addition, the GRI implies the forward-looking nature of stock markets. Moreover, the US and UK are the major transmitters of recessionary shocks, indicating their crucial role in the global economic network.

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引用次数: 0

Climate policy uncertainty and analyst earnings forecasts: Evidence from the Chinese energy sector

IF 7.5 1区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

International Review of Financial Analysis

Pub Date : 2025-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2025.103960

Wenhua Liu , Yang Liu , Fenghua Wen , Xu Gong

We investigate whether climate policy uncertainty affects analysts' earnings forecasts. Using 51,986 analyst forecasting data from China's energy sector for 2009–2021, we find that climate policy uncertainty results in lower analysts' earnings forecasts. Our finding is consistent with the deterioration of the company's fundamentals. Heterogeneity analysis shows that climate policy uncertainty's “correction effect” on analysts' optimistic forecasts is more effective among firms with worse ESG performance and higher pollution levels. Additional analysis suggests that analysts' revision behavior is only present in the sample of optimistic forecasts and that the “correction effect” improves the accuracy of analysts' forecasts.

引用次数: 0

Concealment and detection: The influence of management tone on analyst forecast revisions

IF 7.5 1区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

International Review of Financial Analysis

Pub Date : 2025-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2025.103958

Xixi Ye , Tao Gao , Meijia Zhang , Zhanhao Zheng

Non-financial information disclosures driven by managers' expropriation motivations obscure and misrepresent a company's actual performance, discouraging capital market efficiency. This study examines analysts' sensitivity to management tone in earnings forecast revisions using data from Chinese publicly listed firms (2007–2022). Key findings are as follows: (1) Analysts reduce forecast revisions when the management tone in annual reports is overly positive. This finding indicates that Chinese securities analysts can perceive expropriation motives in the non-financial information disclosed by companies; (2) Only star analysts effectively detect expropriation motives. (3) Companies engaged in financing and margin trading exhibit improved transparency, curbing managerial opportunism and reducing tone's impact on forecasts. (4) Institutional investors identify distorted information, partially substituting for analysts in detecting self-interest and diminishing tone's influence. This study provides insights into analysts' role in recognizing the expropriation of shareholder interests in changing capital markets.

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引用次数: 0

Geographic expansion of banks and enterprise investment efficiency: Structural evidence from China

IF 7.5 1区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

International Review of Financial Analysis

Pub Date : 2025-01-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2025.103967

Ying Lin , Lei Li , Xiuyun Yang , Xiaohan Yan

The relationship between monetary policy and business performance has long attracted attention. This paper explores the impact of geographic expansion of banks on enterprise investment efficiency, using a panel dataset from 2011 to 2019 of listed Chinese enterprises each matched with commercial bank branches available within a certain geographic area. Empirical analyses indicate that bank expansion can significantly increase the investment efficiency of enterprises and the result is robust considering regional variations and possible endogenous biases. A structural analysis indicates that bank expansion induced credit easing is the main factor contributes to investment efficiency increases whereas more mortgage and pledge loans leads to investment efficiency decreases. Neglecting the structural change would find a significant but negative effect of total lending on enterprise investment efficiency with the geographic expansion of banks. These changes are evident and robust for large enterprises and state-owned enterprises while investment benefit of bank expansion is negligible for the small and the private. This paper provides policy reference for orderly competition in banking sector and efficiency improvement of enterprises in China and other developing economics facing with similar supply-side reform.

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引用次数: 0

Fulfillment of environmental responsibility, targeted reduction of inclusive finance and corporate NPD innovation

IF 7.5 1区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

International Review of Financial Analysis

Pub Date : 2025-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2025.103950

Ye Li , Honghong Lu , Minxian Sun

This study empirically explores the connection between environmental responsibility, the intentional reduction of inclusive finance, and corporate innovation in new product development (NPD). The focus is on technology-driven innovative firms listed in the Shanghai and Shenzhen capital markets in China. The findings reveal that targeted reductions in inclusive finance can significantly boost corporate NPD innovation. Additionally, the fulfillment of environmental responsibilities amplifies the positive impact of inclusive finance on NPD innovation. Further analysis indicates that this positive relationship is more prominent in firms with substantial financing constraints, limited government subsidies, and those located in areas with lower resource endowments.

引用次数: 0

National risk preference, insurance development and exports-a study based on the world values survey

IF 7.5 1区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

International Review of Financial Analysis

Pub Date : 2025-01-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2025.103954

Xiaohui Zeng , Danna Xing , Qilin Zhan , Xiuzhen Mu

Based on the data from the World Values Survey and the World Integrated Trade Solution for 23 exporting countries (regions) from 1993 to 2021, this paper studies the impact of national risk preference on exports, and investigates the moderating effect of insurance development level on this impact. The results show that national risk preference has a significant positive effect on the exports of exporting countries (regions), and the results are still significant after endogeneity and robustness tests. The development of insurance industry has a significant promoting effect on the exports of exporting countries (regions), but the coefficient of the interaction term with national risk preference is significantly negative, indicating its substitution for national risk preference. Exporting countries (regions) with lower insurance development levels rely more on the spirit of adventure to overcome risks in exporting, but the development of insurance industry is conducive to overcoming this constraint. According to the results of heterogeneity test, the substitution is limited. Its mediating effect is significant for low contract- intensive products with less risks. However, the effect is not significant for high contract-intensive products with higher risks.

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引用次数: 0

Examining blockchain's role in supply chain finance structure and governance

IF 7.5 1区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

International Review of Financial Analysis

Pub Date : 2025-01-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2025.103955

Sang Hoo Bae , Sara Saberi , Mahtab Kouhizadeh , Joseph Sarkis

Can innovative technologies address the challenge of information asymmetry that has long plagued the financial services industry? This study investigates a three-tier supply chain model, consisting of a core buyer firm, suppliers, and sub-suppliers. It explores the impact of blockchain-enabled financing (BF) on the supply chain finance's structure and governance. Utilizing a circular city model, this study examines the number of suppliers and sub-supplier selection between BF and advance payment supply chain finance policies. BF provides significant benefits, including enhanced security, reduced fraud risk, and the use of smart contracts, which together facilitate secure, verifiable, and efficient real-time information exchange. These advantages reduce information asymmetry and verification costs, leading to more efficient supply chain operations, especially in a principal-agent scenario where the core firm delegates financial responsibilities to suppliers. The study finds BF reduces disruptions due to sub-supplier moral hazard and improves buyer firm and sub-supplier interests. It does not benefit intermediary suppliers. Additionally, a decrease in BF information verification costs allows the buyer firm to contract with fewer suppliers, leading to varied impacts on the profitability of supply chain members and significant implications for overall supply chain structure and governance.

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引用次数: 0

Financial technology, population aging, and corporate innovation

IF 7.5 1区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

International Review of Financial Analysis

Pub Date : 2025-01-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2025.103956

Jing Guo , Jiaqi Yu , Ziqing Tian

This study uses city-level and enterprise data from 2011 to 2022 as the sample. Under the control of industry and year fixed effects, it employs a two-way fixed effects model to deeply explore the influences of financial technology (fintech),¹ population aging, and their interaction on corporate innovation. The research findings indicate that fintech significantly promotes corporate innovation by alleviating financing constraints, while population aging hinders corporate innovation by increasing labor costs, and investment in educational resources can mitigate this negative impact. Furthermore, the study finds that the beneficial effects of fintech on innovation are weakened by aging factors. The research also reveals considerable variation in the effect of fintech on the innovation practices of firms with different management models and scales, and greater impacts are observed for enterprises adopting a dual-role separation model and large enterprises. Additionally, the effects of aging on innovation differ across degrees of digital transformation and enterprise type, with more severe negative impacts noted for enterprises with lower degrees of digital transformation and high-tech enterprises. The research findings provide valuable insights for researchers exploring the intersection of technology and demographic changes.

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引用次数: 0

Does the depth of digital trade rules promote bilateral value chain cooperation?

IF 7.5 1区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

International Review of Financial Analysis

Pub Date : 2025-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2025.103952

Mingkun Tang, Linshan Jiang, Yanbing Mao, Lei Cao

This study explores the impact of the depth of digital trade regulations on bilateral value chain (BVC) cooperation within the framework of regional trade agreements (RTAs) using the University of International Business and Economics global value chain database and the Trade Agreements Provisions on Electronic Commerce and Data database from 2001 to 2014. The number of digital trade provisions in RTAs has been increasing since the US–Jordan RTAs first included them in 2000, and countries are paying more attention to digital trade negotiations. The author has constructed indicators of bilateral digital rules and classified them. At the sector level, indicators of the degree of BVC cooperation were also constructed. The result confirms that the depth of digital trade rules primarily facilitates BVC cooperation through four pathways, including lower bilateral trade costs, investment effects, strengthening spatial knowledge spillovers, and optimizing bilateral business environments. Furthermore, the heterogeneous promotion effects of digital trade rules on BVC cooperation were analyzed from four perspectives (i.e., type of country pairs, regional differences, industry differences, and types of provisions). The results of this analysis are significant and hold for various robustness checks.

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引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to “Accounting conservatism as a strategy to deter entry: Evidence from China's Negative List System” [International Review of Financial Analysis (2024) 93: 103143]

IF 7.5 1区经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE

International Review of Financial Analysis

Pub Date : 2025-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2025.103941

Zehua Xiao , Yitong Zhao

引用次数: 0

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