Pub Date : 2023-07-01DOI: 10.1353/jod.2023.a900433
Ben Hillman
Abstract:Since Xi Jinping became China’s paramount leader in 2012, his top domestic priority has been the strengthening of the Chinese Communist Party’s power over government, economy, and society. This extends to village life, where a decades-long experiment with direct elections is being unwound by new efforts to establish Party control at the rural grassroots level. This essay draws on first-hand observation and Chinese sources to examine the ongoing CCP strategy for reestablishing party dominance over village affairs.
{"title":"The End of Village Democracy in China","authors":"Ben Hillman","doi":"10.1353/jod.2023.a900433","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2023.a900433","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Since Xi Jinping became China’s paramount leader in 2012, his top domestic priority has been the strengthening of the Chinese Communist Party’s power over government, economy, and society. This extends to village life, where a decades-long experiment with direct elections is being unwound by new efforts to establish Party control at the rural grassroots level. This essay draws on first-hand observation and Chinese sources to examine the ongoing CCP strategy for reestablishing party dominance over village affairs.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":" ","pages":"62 - 76"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49502447","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-01DOI: 10.1353/jod.2023.a900436
Maria Snegovaya
Abstract:Scholars often blame Russia”s recent re-autocratization on mistakes of individual leaders: Yeltsin or Putin. This essay casts doubt on such accounts. It argues instead that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia experienced not a democratic transition but a temporary weakening of the state (incumbent capacity). This is evidenced by a lack of elite rotation and the preservation of the same type of formal and informal institutions that characterized Russia’s political system in the past. Accordingly, subsequent re-autocratization of Russian politics was just a matter of time.
{"title":"Why Russia’s Democracy Never Began","authors":"Maria Snegovaya","doi":"10.1353/jod.2023.a900436","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2023.a900436","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Scholars often blame Russia”s recent re-autocratization on mistakes of individual leaders: Yeltsin or Putin. This essay casts doubt on such accounts. It argues instead that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia experienced not a democratic transition but a temporary weakening of the state (incumbent capacity). This is evidenced by a lack of elite rotation and the preservation of the same type of formal and informal institutions that characterized Russia’s political system in the past. Accordingly, subsequent re-autocratization of Russian politics was just a matter of time.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"34 1","pages":"105 - 118"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41824759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-01DOI: 10.1353/jod.2023.a900432
Sean Yom
Abstract:Kuwait is a democratic outlier in the Middle East. In this oil-rich Muslim Arab state, the ruling Sabah monarchy claims considerable executive authority, but it also coexists with a powerful, elected parliament and well-mobilized civil society. This oft-overlooked hybrid system is rooted in liberal norms of pluralism and openness, and enables opposition blocs to advance democratic reforms and rebuff the threat of repression. A transition towards parliamentary democracy, a rarity in the Arab world, is possible. However, this will require overcoming intense cleavages within the royal family, across social groups, and between the royal autocracy and society itself.
{"title":"Kuwait’s Democratic Promise","authors":"Sean Yom","doi":"10.1353/jod.2023.a900432","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2023.a900432","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Kuwait is a democratic outlier in the Middle East. In this oil-rich Muslim Arab state, the ruling Sabah monarchy claims considerable executive authority, but it also coexists with a powerful, elected parliament and well-mobilized civil society. This oft-overlooked hybrid system is rooted in liberal norms of pluralism and openness, and enables opposition blocs to advance democratic reforms and rebuff the threat of repression. A transition towards parliamentary democracy, a rarity in the Arab world, is possible. However, this will require overcoming intense cleavages within the royal family, across social groups, and between the royal autocracy and society itself.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"34 1","pages":"46 - 61"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43223117","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-01DOI: 10.1353/jod.2023.a900430
Berk Esen, Sebnem Gumuscu
Abstract:Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan won a third presidential term in May 2023 in a close race that constituted the opposition’s best chance ever to defeat the long-serving president at the polls. The election was neither free nor fair, but it was real. Erdoğan coupled sophisticated strategies with ethnoreligious themes to win the race against a backdrop of rampant inflation and disastrous relief efforts following the massive earthquakes that struck Turkey in early 2023. The opposition rallied behind a joint candidate, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, but failed to capitalize on Erdoğan’s vulnerabilities. Their campaign remained weak and uncoordinated, giving little reason to long-time Erdogan supporters to defect.
{"title":"How Erdoğan’s Populism Won Again","authors":"Berk Esen, Sebnem Gumuscu","doi":"10.1353/jod.2023.a900430","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2023.a900430","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan won a third presidential term in May 2023 in a close race that constituted the opposition’s best chance ever to defeat the long-serving president at the polls. The election was neither free nor fair, but it was real. Erdoğan coupled sophisticated strategies with ethnoreligious themes to win the race against a backdrop of rampant inflation and disastrous relief efforts following the massive earthquakes that struck Turkey in early 2023. The opposition rallied behind a joint candidate, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, but failed to capitalize on Erdoğan’s vulnerabilities. Their campaign remained weak and uncoordinated, giving little reason to long-time Erdogan supporters to defect.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"34 1","pages":"21 - 32"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44594922","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-01DOI: 10.1353/jod.2023.a900437
{"title":"Is India Still a Democracy?","authors":"","doi":"10.1353/jod.2023.a900437","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2023.a900437","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48848143","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-01DOI: 10.1353/jod.2023.a900431
Noam Gidron
Abstract:In January 2023, massive protests erupted in Israel against the right-wing government's proposed reforms to restructure the country's democracy--reforms that mirror the types of institutional changes that populist parties on the right in Hungary and Poland have used to steer their countries away from liberal democracy. Concern that the proposed reforms would lead to a concentration of power in the executive and a weakening of the courts sparked protests throughout Israel. These protests in turn led to the suspension of the proposed reforms. Analysis suggests that the erosion of democracy is driven by conservative elites rather than far-right parties. Likud, the establishment center-right party, exhibits intense populism but its voters do not overwhelmingly reject liberal democracy. Israel's case highlights the need to consider both mass and elite attitudes and challenges traditional distinctions in understanding democratic backsliding.
{"title":"Why Israeli Democracy Is in Crisis","authors":"Noam Gidron","doi":"10.1353/jod.2023.a900431","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2023.a900431","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:In January 2023, massive protests erupted in Israel against the right-wing government's proposed reforms to restructure the country's democracy--reforms that mirror the types of institutional changes that populist parties on the right in Hungary and Poland have used to steer their countries away from liberal democracy. Concern that the proposed reforms would lead to a concentration of power in the executive and a weakening of the courts sparked protests throughout Israel. These protests in turn led to the suspension of the proposed reforms. Analysis suggests that the erosion of democracy is driven by conservative elites rather than far-right parties. Likud, the establishment center-right party, exhibits intense populism but its voters do not overwhelmingly reject liberal democracy. Israel's case highlights the need to consider both mass and elite attitudes and challenges traditional distinctions in understanding democratic backsliding.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"34 1","pages":"33 - 45"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45748303","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-01DOI: 10.1353/jod.2023.a900444
{"title":"Documents on Democracy","authors":"","doi":"10.1353/jod.2023.a900444","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2023.a900444","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135265569","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-01DOI: 10.1353/jod.2023.a900443
Divya Siddarth
Reimagining Democracy’s Defense Divya Siddarth (bio) Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence. By Paul Scharre. New York: W.W. Norton & Company, 2023. 496 pp. It seems that we are in the throes of an AI arms race. A recent open letter calling for a pause in artificial-intelligence research, with signatories from Elon Musk to Yoshua Bengio, states that “AI labs [are] locked in an outof-control race to develop and deploy AI” that they cannot “understand, predict, or reliably control.” Responses to the letter included exhortations from U.S. senators and CEOs for the United States to instead “step up” its AI arms race against China for fear of being left behind, safety risks from corporate competition notwithstanding. Paul Scharre, a vice-president and director of studies at the Center for a New American Security, takes the latter position, although he carefully sidesteps using the term “arms race.” In his comprehensive Four Battlegrounds: Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence, Scharre makes the case that the United States is locked in a “race . . . to lead in AI and write the rules of the next century to control the future of global power and security” (p. 8). While the United States is currently in a favorable position, the stakes are too high and the outcome too uncertain for complacency. Scharre calls for a renewed program of AI investment, innovation, and diffusion to cement a U.S. lead. Of course, races to control technology among rival powers are nothing new. The sixteenth century B.C.E. saw the first use of the chariot as a weapon, altering the balance of power in Egypt’s favor and sparking a centuries-long arms race from Anatolia to Mesopotamia. The Roman [End Page 173] ballista, itself derived from earlier Greek designs, set off its own race among rival states in the ancient world. The modern era has seen its share of such races, each more destructive, from the Anglo-German naval arms race, which contributed to the tensions that sparked World War I, to the destruction unleashed and threatened by the development of nuclear weapons during the Cold War. But as technology becomes more powerful, the consequences of these arms races rise commensurately, as does the risk—increasingly borne not only by combatants, but by the world at large. Nowhere is this clearer than in the race to lead in AI, both on and off the battlefield (but mostly on). Scharre’s focus is on the risk that falling behind on AI would be a death blow to democracy. As Scharre puts it: “If the United States and other democracies do not work together to lead in AI and shape the rules for how it is used, they risk a creeping tide of techno-authoritarianism that undermines democracy and freedom around the globe” (p. 7). This is very much a Biden-era book, framing this global conflict as one between democracies and autocracies that the United States must focus on winning. If there were any doubts as to the purveyors of this techno-authoritarianism, Scharr
重新构想民主的防御Divya Siddarth(传记)四个战场:人工智能时代的权力。保罗·夏尔著。纽约:诺顿出版社，2023。我们似乎正处于人工智能军备竞赛的阵痛之中。最近一封呼吁暂停人工智能研究的公开信指出，“人工智能实验室陷入了一场失控的竞赛，以开发和部署人工智能”，他们无法“理解、预测或可靠地控制”。联署者包括埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)和Yoshua Bengio。对这封信的回应包括，美国参议员和首席执行官们劝告美国不要“加紧”与中国的人工智能军备竞赛，因为美国担心落后，尽管企业竞争存在安全风险。新美国安全中心(Center for a New American Security)副总裁兼研究主任保罗·沙雷(Paul Scharre)持后一种立场，尽管他小心翼翼地避免使用“军备竞赛”一词。在他全面的《四大战场:人工智能时代的力量》一书中，沙雷认为美国陷入了一场“竞赛……领导人工智能，制定下个世纪的规则，以控制全球权力和安全的未来”(第8页)。尽管美国目前处于有利地位，但风险太高，结果也太不确定，不能自满。Scharre呼吁重新制定人工智能投资、创新和推广计划，以巩固美国的领先地位。当然，竞争对手之间控制技术的竞赛并不是什么新鲜事。公元前16世纪，战车第一次被用作武器，改变了对埃及有利的力量平衡，并引发了从安纳托利亚到美索不达米亚长达几个世纪的军备竞赛。罗马的弹道炮本身就源自早期希腊的设计，在古代世界的敌对国家中掀起了自己的竞赛。现代社会见证了这样的竞赛，每一次都更具破坏性，从导致第一次世界大战爆发的紧张局势的英德海军军备竞赛，到冷战期间核武器发展引发并威胁到的破坏。但随着技术变得越来越强大，这些军备竞赛的后果也相应增加，风险也越来越多地不仅由战斗人员承担，而且由整个世界承担。这一点在AI领域的竞争中表现得最为明显，无论是在战场上还是战场外(但主要是在战场上)。沙雷的重点是，在人工智能方面落后的风险将是对民主的致命打击。正如Scharre所说:“如果美国和其他民主国家不共同努力，在人工智能领域发挥领导作用，并制定使用人工智能的规则，它们就有可能出现一股逐渐蔓延的技术威权主义浪潮，破坏全球的民主和自由”(第7页)。这在很大程度上是一本拜登时代的书，它将这场全球冲突框定为民主国家和专制国家之间的冲突，美国必须专注于赢得这场冲突。沙雷特别关注的目标是中国。如果中国在2030年成为世界人工智能的领导者，这是它的目标，沙雷预计未来会有广泛的监视，侵犯人权和侵蚀全球自由。沙雷表示，令人担忧的是，中国可能正准备这么做。中国发表的人工智能论文比美国多，收集和利用的数据比关注隐私的西方多得多，并且正在投入数十亿美元用于研究、培训和启动大规模人工智能项目。如果民主国家不提出人工智能治理的替代模式，沙雷担心中国行动的速度和规模可能会压倒其他国家的努力。Scharre列举了决定人工智能未来的四个战场，每个战场都被描述为美国和中国之间竞争的一个表面领域:数据、计算(或计算硬件)、人才和机构。在整本书中，他把……
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Pub Date : 2023-07-01DOI: 10.1353/jod.2023.a900438
M. Tudor
Abstract:India exemplifies the global democratic recession. India’s recent downgrade to a hybrid regime is a major influence on the world’s autocratization. And the modality of India’s democratic decline reveals how democracies die today: not through a dramatic coup or midnight arrests of opposition leaders, but instead, it moves through the fully legal harassment of the opposition, intimidation of media, and centralization of executive power. By equating government criticism with disloyalty to the nation, the government of Narendra Modi is diminishing the very idea that opposition is legitimate. India today is no longer the world’s largest democracy.
{"title":"Why India’s Democracy Is Dying","authors":"M. Tudor","doi":"10.1353/jod.2023.a900438","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2023.a900438","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:India exemplifies the global democratic recession. India’s recent downgrade to a hybrid regime is a major influence on the world’s autocratization. And the modality of India’s democratic decline reveals how democracies die today: not through a dramatic coup or midnight arrests of opposition leaders, but instead, it moves through the fully legal harassment of the opposition, intimidation of media, and centralization of executive power. By equating government criticism with disloyalty to the nation, the government of Narendra Modi is diminishing the very idea that opposition is legitimate. India today is no longer the world’s largest democracy.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"34 1","pages":"121 - 132"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46538589","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-01DOI: 10.1353/jod.2023.a900429
D. Slater, Lucan Way, Jean Lachapelle, Adam E. Casey
Abstract:Militaries play dramatically different roles in different autocracies. At one extreme, the military remains the supreme political actor for generations. At the other extreme, militaries long remain subordinate to authoritarian leaders. We argue that the roots of this variation—from military supremacy to subordination—lie in military origins. Where authoritarian mass parties created militaries from scratch, the armed forces have generally remained subservient. Where militaries emerged separately from authoritarian parties, they enjoyed the autonomy necessary to achieve and maintain military supremacy. The core lesson is simple: Unless an autocratic regime created the military, it will struggle to control the military.
{"title":"The Origins of Military Supremacy in Dictatorships","authors":"D. Slater, Lucan Way, Jean Lachapelle, Adam E. Casey","doi":"10.1353/jod.2023.a900429","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2023.a900429","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Militaries play dramatically different roles in different autocracies. At one extreme, the military remains the supreme political actor for generations. At the other extreme, militaries long remain subordinate to authoritarian leaders. We argue that the roots of this variation—from military supremacy to subordination—lie in military origins. Where authoritarian mass parties created militaries from scratch, the armed forces have generally remained subservient. Where militaries emerged separately from authoritarian parties, they enjoyed the autonomy necessary to achieve and maintain military supremacy. The core lesson is simple: Unless an autocratic regime created the military, it will struggle to control the military.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":" ","pages":"20 - 5"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47864412","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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