Pub Date : 2023-10-01DOI: 10.1353/jod.2023.a907689
Senem Aydın-Düzgit, Mustafa Kutlay, E. Fuat Keyman
Abstract: What does the enduring rule of Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan tell us about the resilience of authoritarian populism despite economic and governance crises? This essay argues that a key source of authoritarian resilience lies in the mutually reinforcing interaction of state capture and market capture. The AKP government not only established firm control over state institutions but also reshaped state-market relations in a way that helped the party build an extensive network that closely ties different segments of society to the state. The authors maintain that the fallout from Turkey's growing crisis of governance is not felt evenly across society and thus defies expectations that economic and governance crises necessarily result in the downfall of an authoritarian-populist regime.
{"title":"How Erdoğan Rules Through Crisis","authors":"Senem Aydın-Düzgit, Mustafa Kutlay, E. Fuat Keyman","doi":"10.1353/jod.2023.a907689","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2023.a907689","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract: What does the enduring rule of Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan tell us about the resilience of authoritarian populism despite economic and governance crises? This essay argues that a key source of authoritarian resilience lies in the mutually reinforcing interaction of state capture and market capture. The AKP government not only established firm control over state institutions but also reshaped state-market relations in a way that helped the party build an extensive network that closely ties different segments of society to the state. The authors maintain that the fallout from Turkey's growing crisis of governance is not felt evenly across society and thus defies expectations that economic and governance crises necessarily result in the downfall of an authoritarian-populist regime.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135324033","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-01DOI: 10.1353/jod.2023.a907685
Rachel A. Schwartz, Anita Isaacs
Abstract: Guatemala has experienced sustained democratic backsliding, including the manipulation of the 2023 electoral playing field. Yet, against the odds, Guatemalan citizens defied the ruling regime's electoral authoritarian strategy, voting an anticorruption reformer into power. This article analyzes Guatemala's (anti)democratic trajectory and explains how opposition actors resisted further backsliding during the 2023 electoral process. The authors argue that the Guatemalan regime reflects a "criminal oligarchy," and examine how rule-of-law advances prompted elite backlash that eviscerated democratic institutions. The unexpected 2023 electoral outcome, however, illustrates the possibilities of exploiting fissures in the criminal-oligarchic coalition to arrest authoritarian consolidation.
{"title":"How Guatemala Defied the Odds","authors":"Rachel A. Schwartz, Anita Isaacs","doi":"10.1353/jod.2023.a907685","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2023.a907685","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract: Guatemala has experienced sustained democratic backsliding, including the manipulation of the 2023 electoral playing field. Yet, against the odds, Guatemalan citizens defied the ruling regime's electoral authoritarian strategy, voting an anticorruption reformer into power. This article analyzes Guatemala's (anti)democratic trajectory and explains how opposition actors resisted further backsliding during the 2023 electoral process. The authors argue that the Guatemalan regime reflects a \"criminal oligarchy,\" and examine how rule-of-law advances prompted elite backlash that eviscerated democratic institutions. The unexpected 2023 electoral outcome, however, illustrates the possibilities of exploiting fissures in the criminal-oligarchic coalition to arrest authoritarian consolidation.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135324027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-01DOI: 10.1353/jod.2023.a907699
{"title":"Documents on Democracy","authors":"","doi":"10.1353/jod.2023.a907699","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2023.a907699","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"129 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135324036","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-01DOI: 10.1353/jod.2023.a907698
Theresa Fallon
The Meddling Kingdom Theresa Fallon (bio) Beijing Rules: How China Weaponized Its Economy to Confront the World. By Bethany Allen. New York: Harper, 2023. 336 pp. For far too long, the story of America's approach toward the People's Republic of China (PRC) was based on what I like to call "hopium"—the belief that bringing Beijing into global markets and institutions would expose them to liberal-democratic values, thereby paving the way to the country's democratization. It was a convenient story, especially for the probusiness lobby that eyed the PRC as a place with cheap labor, scant environmental regulations, and no unions. Of course, the net sum from this strategy was something very different. Instead, it created a near peer competitor to the United States, delinked trade from human rights, and inadvertently created a serious challenge (and sometimes spoiler) to the institutions of global governance. The West's addiction to "hopium" had another cost: It bought Beijing time. Axios journalist Bethany Allen's new book, Beijing Rules: How China Weaponized Its Economy to Confront the World, examines how Beijing has used economic coercion, the promise of its vast market, and strategic positioning inside key international institutions such as the World Health Organization and the United Nations to leverage its position as "it faced a short window of strategic opportunity to pull ahead of a distracted West" (p. xvii). According to Allen, trends have now emerged that suggest that "the era of morality-free trade in the international sphere and the blind veneration of corporate profits in the domestic sphere may not continue indefinitely." [End Page 171] In particular, the economic and political shock of the covid-19 pandemic led to the West's realization of the danger of being overly dependent on PRC supply chains. Similar to the OPEC oil embargo of 1973, the Chinese Communist Party's decision to weaponize masks was a wakeup call for world leaders to stop relying on Beijing and start diversifying supply chains. "The global rush for PPE [personal protective equipment] was perhaps the first time the full impact of highly motivated Chinese diaspora communities could be felt in such a tangible way," as people in cities around the world "could not find masks in their local pharmacies" after Chinese diaspora communities bought them up to send back to the PRC, Allen explains. "In January and early February [2020], it was difficult for anyone to foresee that the entire world would soon be starving for PPE and that the individual efforts of people in overseas Chinese communities, when spurred by the top-down guidance of globe-spanning party organizations, would result in $1.2 billion worth of PPE sent back to China within a period of less than two months," writes Allen (p.23). Allen describes the CCP's use of China's diaspora communities as a "dual-function strategy." She writes: Party leaders choose to use—abuse, in fact—legitimate organizations for their own po
《北京规则:中国如何将其经济武器化以对抗世界》贝瑟尼·艾伦著。纽约:哈珀出版社，2023年。长久以来，美国对待中华人民共和国(PRC)的态度是建立在我称之为“hopium”的基础上的——相信将北京带入全球市场和机构将使他们接触到自由民主的价值观，从而为国家的民主化铺平道路。这是一个方便的故事，特别是对亲商业的游说团体来说，他们认为中国是一个劳动力廉价、环境法规宽松、没有工会的地方。当然，这一策略的净收益是非常不同的。相反，它创造了一个与美国势均力敌的竞争对手，使贸易与人权脱钩，并无意中对全球治理机构构成了严重挑战(有时是破坏)。西方对“鸦片”的沉迷还有另一个代价:它为北京赢得了时间。Axios记者Bethany Allen的新书《北京规则》:《中国如何将其经济武器化以对抗世界》考察了北京如何利用经济胁迫、对其广阔市场的承诺以及在世界卫生组织和联合国等关键国际机构中的战略定位来利用其地位，因为“它面临着一个短暂的战略机会窗口，可以领先于分心的西方”(第17页)。现在出现的趋势表明，“国际领域的无道德贸易和国内领域对企业利润的盲目崇拜的时代可能不会无限期地持续下去。”特别是，2019冠状病毒病大流行带来的经济和政治冲击使西方意识到过度依赖中国供应链的危险。与1973年石油输出国组织(OPEC)的石油禁运类似，中国共产党将口罩武器化的决定为世界各国领导人敲响了警钟，让他们停止依赖北京，开始实现供应链多样化。艾伦解释说:“全球对个人防护装备的抢购可能是第一次以如此切实的方式感受到高度积极的海外华人社区的全面影响，”因为在海外华人社区购买口罩寄回中国后，世界各地城市的人们“在当地药店找不到口罩”。艾伦写道:“在[2020年]1月和2月初，任何人都很难预见到整个世界很快就会缺乏个人防护装备，而且在遍布全球的党组织自上而下的指导下，海外华人社区的个人努力将在不到两个月的时间内将价值12亿美元的个人防护装备送回中国。”艾伦将中共利用中国侨民社区描述为一种“双重功能战略”。她写道:政党领导人为了自己的政治目的，选择滥用事实上合法的组织。无论是在中国境内还是境外，双重职能都与统战工作密切相关，并源于党的基本信念，即权力属于所有地方。这种策略有明显的不良影响。它让人对社区组织产生怀疑，并让人担心存在“第五纵队”，即一个社会中有相当多的成员是忠于外国势力的秘密潜伏特工(第44页)。有关中国公民为中共从事间谍活动的爆料越来越多，包括《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal)最近一篇关于利用中国公民监视美国军事设施的报道。对北京来说，情报收集显然比担心可能在海外社区播下不信任的种子更为重要。也许从长远来看，搅动这个危险的“第五纵队”的锅符合北京的利益，因为它强化了中共的说法，即美国对中国公民存在危险的偏见。但艾伦的观点是正确的，“如果北京真的关心海外华人社区的福祉，就应该一劳永逸地放弃双重功能战略”(第67页)。艾伦关于北京方面渗透Zoom视频会议服务的那一章可能会让读者犹豫，因为……
{"title":"The Meddling Kingdom","authors":"Theresa Fallon","doi":"10.1353/jod.2023.a907698","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2023.a907698","url":null,"abstract":"The Meddling Kingdom Theresa Fallon (bio) Beijing Rules: How China Weaponized Its Economy to Confront the World. By Bethany Allen. New York: Harper, 2023. 336 pp. For far too long, the story of America's approach toward the People's Republic of China (PRC) was based on what I like to call \"hopium\"—the belief that bringing Beijing into global markets and institutions would expose them to liberal-democratic values, thereby paving the way to the country's democratization. It was a convenient story, especially for the probusiness lobby that eyed the PRC as a place with cheap labor, scant environmental regulations, and no unions. Of course, the net sum from this strategy was something very different. Instead, it created a near peer competitor to the United States, delinked trade from human rights, and inadvertently created a serious challenge (and sometimes spoiler) to the institutions of global governance. The West's addiction to \"hopium\" had another cost: It bought Beijing time. Axios journalist Bethany Allen's new book, Beijing Rules: How China Weaponized Its Economy to Confront the World, examines how Beijing has used economic coercion, the promise of its vast market, and strategic positioning inside key international institutions such as the World Health Organization and the United Nations to leverage its position as \"it faced a short window of strategic opportunity to pull ahead of a distracted West\" (p. xvii). According to Allen, trends have now emerged that suggest that \"the era of morality-free trade in the international sphere and the blind veneration of corporate profits in the domestic sphere may not continue indefinitely.\" [End Page 171] In particular, the economic and political shock of the covid-19 pandemic led to the West's realization of the danger of being overly dependent on PRC supply chains. Similar to the OPEC oil embargo of 1973, the Chinese Communist Party's decision to weaponize masks was a wakeup call for world leaders to stop relying on Beijing and start diversifying supply chains. \"The global rush for PPE [personal protective equipment] was perhaps the first time the full impact of highly motivated Chinese diaspora communities could be felt in such a tangible way,\" as people in cities around the world \"could not find masks in their local pharmacies\" after Chinese diaspora communities bought them up to send back to the PRC, Allen explains. \"In January and early February [2020], it was difficult for anyone to foresee that the entire world would soon be starving for PPE and that the individual efforts of people in overseas Chinese communities, when spurred by the top-down guidance of globe-spanning party organizations, would result in $1.2 billion worth of PPE sent back to China within a period of less than two months,\" writes Allen (p.23). Allen describes the CCP's use of China's diaspora communities as a \"dual-function strategy.\" She writes: Party leaders choose to use—abuse, in fact—legitimate organizations for their own po","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"147 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135324028","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-01DOI: 10.1353/jod.2023.a907695
Eddie Yang, Margaret E. Roberts
Abstract: As the race to develop artificial intelligence (AI) accelerates, access to more and higher quality data is becoming increasingly crucial for AI systems. Yet the search for more data for AI facilitates information flow between authoritarian and democratic states in a way that has important implications for the behavior and output of AI. In particular, the homogenization of data, through institutions such as censorship and propaganda in authoritarian regimes can influence the output of AI developed in democracies. On the other hand, data from democracies provide valuable information for AI that is used for repressive purposes in authoritarian regimes. The authors call for greater scholarly and policy attention on the dual effect of the two-way AI-mediated data flow between democratic and authoritarian states and lay out a research agenda that would enable us to better understand the political influences on AI.
{"title":"The Authoritarian Data Problem","authors":"Eddie Yang, Margaret E. Roberts","doi":"10.1353/jod.2023.a907695","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2023.a907695","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract: As the race to develop artificial intelligence (AI) accelerates, access to more and higher quality data is becoming increasingly crucial for AI systems. Yet the search for more data for AI facilitates information flow between authoritarian and democratic states in a way that has important implications for the behavior and output of AI. In particular, the homogenization of data, through institutions such as censorship and propaganda in authoritarian regimes can influence the output of AI developed in democracies. On the other hand, data from democracies provide valuable information for AI that is used for repressive purposes in authoritarian regimes. The authors call for greater scholarly and policy attention on the dual effect of the two-way AI-mediated data flow between democratic and authoritarian states and lay out a research agenda that would enable us to better understand the political influences on AI.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"28 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135324029","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-01DOI: 10.1353/jod.2023.a907687
Kate Baldwin
Abstract: This article examines church activism for liberal democracy in sub-Saharan Africa in recent decades. The article seeks to explain churches' high levels of activism compared to a) other civil society organizations, specifically trade unions, and b) churches' varied commitments to democratic activism. The argument emphasizes the protections liberal-democratic institutions offer churches to spread their ideas without being curtailed by an all-powerful ruler. The extent to which churches need these protections depends on the degree to which their activities are vulnerable to appropriation by the state, with churches that have historically invested in schools as a method of evangelization being those most likely to advocate for liberal democracy.
{"title":"Democracy's Devout Defenders","authors":"Kate Baldwin","doi":"10.1353/jod.2023.a907687","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2023.a907687","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract: This article examines church activism for liberal democracy in sub-Saharan Africa in recent decades. The article seeks to explain churches' high levels of activism compared to a) other civil society organizations, specifically trade unions, and b) churches' varied commitments to democratic activism. The argument emphasizes the protections liberal-democratic institutions offer churches to spread their ideas without being curtailed by an all-powerful ruler. The extent to which churches need these protections depends on the degree to which their activities are vulnerable to appropriation by the state, with churches that have historically invested in schools as a method of evangelization being those most likely to advocate for liberal democracy.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"44 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135324035","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-01DOI: 10.1353/jod.2023.a907688
Nilay Saiya
Abstract: Many scholars and prodemocracy organizations have documented a global democratic recession that has been occurring since the mid-2000s. Yet the reason for this democratic decay remains disputed. This article argues that the global democratic recession has coincided with, and can be largely attributed to, the emergence of an antidemocratic form of religious majoritarianism that has swept across the world since the turn of the century. The author calls this development "theocratic democracy." Theocratic democracy results when religious groups and holders of state power strike an unspoken grand bargain: Political leaders back majoritarian religious groups, and these groups in return use their spiritual authority to back the political leaders. The rise of theocratic democracy has had devastating consequences for democracy.
{"title":"The Rise of Theocratic Democracy","authors":"Nilay Saiya","doi":"10.1353/jod.2023.a907688","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2023.a907688","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract: Many scholars and prodemocracy organizations have documented a global democratic recession that has been occurring since the mid-2000s. Yet the reason for this democratic decay remains disputed. This article argues that the global democratic recession has coincided with, and can be largely attributed to, the emergence of an antidemocratic form of religious majoritarianism that has swept across the world since the turn of the century. The author calls this development \"theocratic democracy.\" Theocratic democracy results when religious groups and holders of state power strike an unspoken grand bargain: Political leaders back majoritarian religious groups, and these groups in return use their spiritual authority to back the political leaders. The rise of theocratic democracy has had devastating consequences for democracy.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135324037","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-01DOI: 10.1353/jod.2023.a907686
Tom Ginsburg, Mila Versteeg
Abstract: Recent decades have seen a sharp rise in constitutional provisions regulating core aspects of democracy, including the rules about parties, voting, and elections. The trend is apparent in both democracies and nondemocracies, although democracies tend to constitutionalize slightly more matters. Constitutionalization can help democracy by tying the hands of politicians. Looking at cross-national data, we find that constitutionalizing democracy is correlated with higher levels of democracy. However, some rules have the potential to undermine democracy, particularly in contexts where the military plays a major role in politics. The essay illustrates these dynamics with the case studies of Kenya and Thailand.
{"title":"The Constitutionalization of Democracy","authors":"Tom Ginsburg, Mila Versteeg","doi":"10.1353/jod.2023.a907686","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2023.a907686","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract: Recent decades have seen a sharp rise in constitutional provisions regulating core aspects of democracy, including the rules about parties, voting, and elections. The trend is apparent in both democracies and nondemocracies, although democracies tend to constitutionalize slightly more matters. Constitutionalization can help democracy by tying the hands of politicians. Looking at cross-national data, we find that constitutionalizing democracy is correlated with higher levels of democracy. However, some rules have the potential to undermine democracy, particularly in contexts where the military plays a major role in politics. The essay illustrates these dynamics with the case studies of Kenya and Thailand.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135324040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-01DOI: 10.1353/jod.2023.a907694
Tom Davidson
Abstract: We must reduce harms from current AI systems while also looking ahead to harms that may occur soon. Experts worry that runaway AI could cause extreme harm in the next five to twenty years. The risk is that we develop superhuman AI systems that surpass humans in domains like persuasion, strategy, hacking, and research and development; that we design these systems to pursue goals autonomously; that we accidentally give them unintended goals; and that humans lose control of these superhuman systems. Without regulation, the actions of a small number of elite AI developers could pose massive risks to the rest of society. The risk is not specific to any particular deployment context, but is inherent to the technology itself. So, in addition to regulating specific AI products, we should also regulate the development of frontier AI systems. We should develop safety standards and empower a regulatory authority to enforce them. These regulations would apply only to a small number of frontier AI developers. The risk from runaway AI could emerge very suddenly, especially if advanced AI itself has accelerated the pace of AI progress. If we wait to see the problem before responding, the regulations may come into force too late. So we should regulate proactively, requiring a government license for frontier AI developers.
{"title":"The Danger of Runaway AI","authors":"Tom Davidson","doi":"10.1353/jod.2023.a907694","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2023.a907694","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract: We must reduce harms from current AI systems while also looking ahead to harms that may occur soon. Experts worry that runaway AI could cause extreme harm in the next five to twenty years. The risk is that we develop superhuman AI systems that surpass humans in domains like persuasion, strategy, hacking, and research and development; that we design these systems to pursue goals autonomously; that we accidentally give them unintended goals; and that humans lose control of these superhuman systems. Without regulation, the actions of a small number of elite AI developers could pose massive risks to the rest of society. The risk is not specific to any particular deployment context, but is inherent to the technology itself. So, in addition to regulating specific AI products, we should also regulate the development of frontier AI systems. We should develop safety standards and empower a regulatory authority to enforce them. These regulations would apply only to a small number of frontier AI developers. The risk from runaway AI could emerge very suddenly, especially if advanced AI itself has accelerated the pace of AI progress. If we wait to see the problem before responding, the regulations may come into force too late. So we should regulate proactively, requiring a government license for frontier AI developers.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136079919","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-01DOI: 10.1353/jod.2023.a900435
Laura Gamboa
Abstract:Around the globe, democratically elected leaders are eroding democracy by legal means, a strategy that often averts domestic and international backlash. To counter this erosion, oppositions may deploy radical, extra-institutional opposition strategies which risk backfiring and strengthening autocracy. Safer options are moderate, institutional strategies that maintain opposition legitimacy and work within democratic frameworks, an approach exemplified by the Colombian opposition during President Álvaro Uribe’s tenure. However, the success of moderate strategies hinges on strong domestic and international support for democracy. Global apathy towards democracy can combine with an autocrat’s use of a democratic façade to produce rapid democratic backsliding, as in the case of El Salvador's transition to competitive authoritarianism under President Nayib Bukele.
{"title":"How Oppositions Fight Back","authors":"Laura Gamboa","doi":"10.1353/jod.2023.a900435","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2023.a900435","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract:Around the globe, democratically elected leaders are eroding democracy by legal means, a strategy that often averts domestic and international backlash. To counter this erosion, oppositions may deploy radical, extra-institutional opposition strategies which risk backfiring and strengthening autocracy. Safer options are moderate, institutional strategies that maintain opposition legitimacy and work within democratic frameworks, an approach exemplified by the Colombian opposition during President Álvaro Uribe’s tenure. However, the success of moderate strategies hinges on strong domestic and international support for democracy. Global apathy towards democracy can combine with an autocrat’s use of a democratic façade to produce rapid democratic backsliding, as in the case of El Salvador's transition to competitive authoritarianism under President Nayib Bukele.","PeriodicalId":48227,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Democracy","volume":" ","pages":"104 - 90"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1,"publicationDate":"2023-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48623061","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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