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Journal of Democracy最新文献

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Documents on Democracy 民主文件
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.1353/jod.2023.a907699
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引用次数: 0
The Meddling Kingdom 爱管闲事的王国
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.1353/jod.2023.a907698
Theresa Fallon
The Meddling Kingdom Theresa Fallon (bio) Beijing Rules: How China Weaponized Its Economy to Confront the World. By Bethany Allen. New York: Harper, 2023. 336 pp. For far too long, the story of America's approach toward the People's Republic of China (PRC) was based on what I like to call "hopium"—the belief that bringing Beijing into global markets and institutions would expose them to liberal-democratic values, thereby paving the way to the country's democratization. It was a convenient story, especially for the probusiness lobby that eyed the PRC as a place with cheap labor, scant environmental regulations, and no unions. Of course, the net sum from this strategy was something very different. Instead, it created a near peer competitor to the United States, delinked trade from human rights, and inadvertently created a serious challenge (and sometimes spoiler) to the institutions of global governance. The West's addiction to "hopium" had another cost: It bought Beijing time. Axios journalist Bethany Allen's new book, Beijing Rules: How China Weaponized Its Economy to Confront the World, examines how Beijing has used economic coercion, the promise of its vast market, and strategic positioning inside key international institutions such as the World Health Organization and the United Nations to leverage its position as "it faced a short window of strategic opportunity to pull ahead of a distracted West" (p. xvii). According to Allen, trends have now emerged that suggest that "the era of morality-free trade in the international sphere and the blind veneration of corporate profits in the domestic sphere may not continue indefinitely." [End Page 171] In particular, the economic and political shock of the covid-19 pandemic led to the West's realization of the danger of being overly dependent on PRC supply chains. Similar to the OPEC oil embargo of 1973, the Chinese Communist Party's decision to weaponize masks was a wakeup call for world leaders to stop relying on Beijing and start diversifying supply chains. "The global rush for PPE [personal protective equipment] was perhaps the first time the full impact of highly motivated Chinese diaspora communities could be felt in such a tangible way," as people in cities around the world "could not find masks in their local pharmacies" after Chinese diaspora communities bought them up to send back to the PRC, Allen explains. "In January and early February [2020], it was difficult for anyone to foresee that the entire world would soon be starving for PPE and that the individual efforts of people in overseas Chinese communities, when spurred by the top-down guidance of globe-spanning party organizations, would result in $1.2 billion worth of PPE sent back to China within a period of less than two months," writes Allen (p.23). Allen describes the CCP's use of China's diaspora communities as a "dual-function strategy." She writes: Party leaders choose to use—abuse, in fact—legitimate organizations for their own po
《北京规则:中国如何将其经济武器化以对抗世界》贝瑟尼·艾伦著。纽约:哈珀出版社,2023年。长久以来,美国对待中华人民共和国(PRC)的态度是建立在我称之为“hopium”的基础上的——相信将北京带入全球市场和机构将使他们接触到自由民主的价值观,从而为国家的民主化铺平道路。这是一个方便的故事,特别是对亲商业的游说团体来说,他们认为中国是一个劳动力廉价、环境法规宽松、没有工会的地方。当然,这一策略的净收益是非常不同的。相反,它创造了一个与美国势均力敌的竞争对手,使贸易与人权脱钩,并无意中对全球治理机构构成了严重挑战(有时是破坏)。西方对“鸦片”的沉迷还有另一个代价:它为北京赢得了时间。Axios记者Bethany Allen的新书《北京规则》:《中国如何将其经济武器化以对抗世界》考察了北京如何利用经济胁迫、对其广阔市场的承诺以及在世界卫生组织和联合国等关键国际机构中的战略定位来利用其地位,因为“它面临着一个短暂的战略机会窗口,可以领先于分心的西方”(第17页)。现在出现的趋势表明,“国际领域的无道德贸易和国内领域对企业利润的盲目崇拜的时代可能不会无限期地持续下去。”特别是,2019冠状病毒病大流行带来的经济和政治冲击使西方意识到过度依赖中国供应链的危险。与1973年石油输出国组织(OPEC)的石油禁运类似,中国共产党将口罩武器化的决定为世界各国领导人敲响了警钟,让他们停止依赖北京,开始实现供应链多样化。艾伦解释说:“全球对个人防护装备的抢购可能是第一次以如此切实的方式感受到高度积极的海外华人社区的全面影响,”因为在海外华人社区购买口罩寄回中国后,世界各地城市的人们“在当地药店找不到口罩”。艾伦写道:“在[2020年]1月和2月初,任何人都很难预见到整个世界很快就会缺乏个人防护装备,而且在遍布全球的党组织自上而下的指导下,海外华人社区的个人努力将在不到两个月的时间内将价值12亿美元的个人防护装备送回中国。”艾伦将中共利用中国侨民社区描述为一种“双重功能战略”。她写道:政党领导人为了自己的政治目的,选择滥用事实上合法的组织。无论是在中国境内还是境外,双重职能都与统战工作密切相关,并源于党的基本信念,即权力属于所有地方。这种策略有明显的不良影响。它让人对社区组织产生怀疑,并让人担心存在“第五纵队”,即一个社会中有相当多的成员是忠于外国势力的秘密潜伏特工(第44页)。有关中国公民为中共从事间谍活动的爆料越来越多,包括《华尔街日报》(Wall Street Journal)最近一篇关于利用中国公民监视美国军事设施的报道。对北京来说,情报收集显然比担心可能在海外社区播下不信任的种子更为重要。也许从长远来看,搅动这个危险的“第五纵队”的锅符合北京的利益,因为它强化了中共的说法,即美国对中国公民存在危险的偏见。但艾伦的观点是正确的,“如果北京真的关心海外华人社区的福祉,就应该一劳永逸地放弃双重功能战略”(第67页)。艾伦关于北京方面渗透Zoom视频会议服务的那一章可能会让读者犹豫,因为……
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引用次数: 0
The Authoritarian Data Problem 权威数据问题
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.1353/jod.2023.a907695
Eddie Yang, Margaret E. Roberts
Abstract: As the race to develop artificial intelligence (AI) accelerates, access to more and higher quality data is becoming increasingly crucial for AI systems. Yet the search for more data for AI facilitates information flow between authoritarian and democratic states in a way that has important implications for the behavior and output of AI. In particular, the homogenization of data, through institutions such as censorship and propaganda in authoritarian regimes can influence the output of AI developed in democracies. On the other hand, data from democracies provide valuable information for AI that is used for repressive purposes in authoritarian regimes. The authors call for greater scholarly and policy attention on the dual effect of the two-way AI-mediated data flow between democratic and authoritarian states and lay out a research agenda that would enable us to better understand the political influences on AI.
摘要:随着人工智能(AI)发展竞赛的加速,获取更多、更高质量的数据对人工智能系统变得越来越重要。然而,为人工智能寻找更多数据促进了威权国家和民主国家之间的信息流动,这对人工智能的行为和产出具有重要影响。特别是,专制政权通过审查和宣传等制度实现的数据同质化,可能会影响民主国家开发的人工智能的产出。另一方面,民主国家的数据为专制政权用于镇压目的的人工智能提供了有价值的信息。作者呼吁更多的学术和政策关注民主和专制国家之间人工智能介导的双向数据流的双重影响,并制定了一个研究议程,使我们能够更好地理解政治对人工智能的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Democracy's Devout Defenders 民主的虔诚捍卫者
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.1353/jod.2023.a907687
Kate Baldwin
Abstract: This article examines church activism for liberal democracy in sub-Saharan Africa in recent decades. The article seeks to explain churches' high levels of activism compared to a) other civil society organizations, specifically trade unions, and b) churches' varied commitments to democratic activism. The argument emphasizes the protections liberal-democratic institutions offer churches to spread their ideas without being curtailed by an all-powerful ruler. The extent to which churches need these protections depends on the degree to which their activities are vulnerable to appropriation by the state, with churches that have historically invested in schools as a method of evangelization being those most likely to advocate for liberal democracy.
摘要:本文考察了近几十年来撒哈拉以南非洲地区教会为自由民主所采取的行动。这篇文章试图解释与a)其他公民社会组织,特别是工会相比,教会的行动主义水平较高,以及b)教会对民主行动主义的各种承诺。该论点强调了自由民主制度为教会提供的保护,使他们能够传播自己的思想,而不会受到全能统治者的限制。教会需要这些保护的程度取决于他们的活动在多大程度上容易被国家挪用,历史上把投资学校作为一种传福音方式的教会最有可能倡导自由民主。
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引用次数: 0
The Rise of Theocratic Democracy 神权民主的兴起
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.1353/jod.2023.a907688
Nilay Saiya
Abstract: Many scholars and prodemocracy organizations have documented a global democratic recession that has been occurring since the mid-2000s. Yet the reason for this democratic decay remains disputed. This article argues that the global democratic recession has coincided with, and can be largely attributed to, the emergence of an antidemocratic form of religious majoritarianism that has swept across the world since the turn of the century. The author calls this development "theocratic democracy." Theocratic democracy results when religious groups and holders of state power strike an unspoken grand bargain: Political leaders back majoritarian religious groups, and these groups in return use their spiritual authority to back the political leaders. The rise of theocratic democracy has had devastating consequences for democracy.
摘要:许多学者和民主组织记录了自2000年代中期以来发生的全球民主衰退。然而,这种民主衰败的原因仍然存在争议。本文认为,全球民主衰退与自世纪之交以来席卷全球的反民主形式的宗教多数主义的出现同时发生,这在很大程度上可以归因于此。作者称这种发展为“神权民主”。当宗教团体和国家权力的拥有者达成一项不言而喻的大交易时,神权民主就产生了:政治领导人支持多数主义的宗教团体,而这些团体反过来用他们的精神权威来支持政治领导人。神权民主的兴起给民主带来了毁灭性的后果。
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引用次数: 0
The Constitutionalization of Democracy 民主的宪法化
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.1353/jod.2023.a907686
Tom Ginsburg, Mila Versteeg
Abstract: Recent decades have seen a sharp rise in constitutional provisions regulating core aspects of democracy, including the rules about parties, voting, and elections. The trend is apparent in both democracies and nondemocracies, although democracies tend to constitutionalize slightly more matters. Constitutionalization can help democracy by tying the hands of politicians. Looking at cross-national data, we find that constitutionalizing democracy is correlated with higher levels of democracy. However, some rules have the potential to undermine democracy, particularly in contexts where the military plays a major role in politics. The essay illustrates these dynamics with the case studies of Kenya and Thailand.
摘要:近几十年来,规范民主核心方面的宪法条款急剧增加,包括关于政党、投票和选举的规则。这种趋势在民主国家和非民主国家都很明显,尽管民主国家倾向于将更多的事情宪法化。宪法化可以通过束缚政治家的手来帮助民主。纵观跨国数据,我们发现民主宪政化与更高的民主水平相关。然而,一些规则有可能破坏民主,特别是在军队在政治中发挥重要作用的情况下。本文以肯尼亚和泰国的案例研究说明了这些动态。
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引用次数: 0
The Danger of Runaway AI 失控AI的危险
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.1353/jod.2023.a907694
Tom Davidson
Abstract: We must reduce harms from current AI systems while also looking ahead to harms that may occur soon. Experts worry that runaway AI could cause extreme harm in the next five to twenty years. The risk is that we develop superhuman AI systems that surpass humans in domains like persuasion, strategy, hacking, and research and development; that we design these systems to pursue goals autonomously; that we accidentally give them unintended goals; and that humans lose control of these superhuman systems. Without regulation, the actions of a small number of elite AI developers could pose massive risks to the rest of society. The risk is not specific to any particular deployment context, but is inherent to the technology itself. So, in addition to regulating specific AI products, we should also regulate the development of frontier AI systems. We should develop safety standards and empower a regulatory authority to enforce them. These regulations would apply only to a small number of frontier AI developers. The risk from runaway AI could emerge very suddenly, especially if advanced AI itself has accelerated the pace of AI progress. If we wait to see the problem before responding, the regulations may come into force too late. So we should regulate proactively, requiring a government license for frontier AI developers.
摘要:我们必须减少当前人工智能系统的危害,同时展望可能很快发生的危害。专家担心,失控的人工智能可能在未来5到20年内造成极端危害。风险在于,我们开发的超人类人工智能系统在说服、战略、黑客攻击和研发等领域超越了人类;我们设计这些系统来自主地追求目标;我们不小心给了他们意想不到的目标;人类失去了对这些超人类系统的控制。如果没有监管,少数精英人工智能开发者的行为可能会给社会其他人带来巨大风险。风险并不特定于任何特定的部署环境,而是技术本身固有的风险。所以,除了规范特定的人工智能产品,我们还应该规范前沿人工智能系统的发展。我们应该制定安全标准,并授权监管机构执行这些标准。这些规定只适用于少数前沿人工智能开发者。人工智能失控的风险可能会突然出现,特别是如果先进的人工智能本身加速了人工智能的发展步伐。如果我们坐等问题出现再作出反应,这些规定的生效可能就太晚了。因此,我们应该主动监管,要求政府对前沿人工智能开发者颁发许可证。
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引用次数: 1
How Oppositions Fight Back 对手如何反击
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1353/jod.2023.a900435
Laura Gamboa
Abstract:Around the globe, democratically elected leaders are eroding democracy by legal means, a strategy that often averts domestic and international backlash. To counter this erosion, oppositions may deploy radical, extra-institutional opposition strategies which risk backfiring and strengthening autocracy. Safer options are moderate, institutional strategies that maintain opposition legitimacy and work within democratic frameworks, an approach exemplified by the Colombian opposition during President Álvaro Uribe’s tenure. However, the success of moderate strategies hinges on strong domestic and international support for democracy. Global apathy towards democracy can combine with an autocrat’s use of a democratic façade to produce rapid democratic backsliding, as in the case of El Salvador's transition to competitive authoritarianism under President Nayib Bukele.
摘要:在全球范围内,民主选举产生的领导人正在通过法律手段侵蚀民主,这种策略通常可以避免国内和国际的反弹。为了对抗这种侵蚀,反对派可能会采取激进的、机构外的反对策略,这可能会适得其反,并加强独裁统治。更安全的选择是温和的制度战略,维持反对派的合法性,并在民主框架内工作,这是哥伦比亚反对派在Álvaro乌里韦总统任期内的一个例子。然而,温和战略的成功取决于对民主的强有力的国内和国际支持。全球对民主的冷漠可能与独裁者利用民主腐败相结合,导致民主迅速倒退,就像萨尔瓦多在纳伊布·布克勒总统领导下向竞争性威权主义过渡的情况一样。
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引用次数: 1
The End of Village Democracy in China 中国乡村民主的终结
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1353/jod.2023.a900433
Ben Hillman
Abstract:Since Xi Jinping became China’s paramount leader in 2012, his top domestic priority has been the strengthening of the Chinese Communist Party’s power over government, economy, and society. This extends to village life, where a decades-long experiment with direct elections is being unwound by new efforts to establish Party control at the rural grassroots level. This essay draws on first-hand observation and Chinese sources to examine the ongoing CCP strategy for reestablishing party dominance over village affairs.
这也延伸到了乡村生活,在那里,长达数十年的直接选举实验正在被在农村基层建立党的控制的新努力所打破。本文利用第一手观察和中国的资料来考察中国共产党正在进行的重建党对村务统治的战略。
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引用次数: 0
Kuwait’s Democratic Promise 科威特的民主承诺
IF 3.1 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1353/jod.2023.a900432
Sean Yom
Abstract:Kuwait is a democratic outlier in the Middle East. In this oil-rich Muslim Arab state, the ruling Sabah monarchy claims considerable executive authority, but it also coexists with a powerful, elected parliament and well-mobilized civil society. This oft-overlooked hybrid system is rooted in liberal norms of pluralism and openness, and enables opposition blocs to advance democratic reforms and rebuff the threat of repression. A transition towards parliamentary democracy, a rarity in the Arab world, is possible. However, this will require overcoming intense cleavages within the royal family, across social groups, and between the royal autocracy and society itself.
摘要:科威特是中东地区一个民主的异类。在这个石油资源丰富的穆斯林阿拉伯国家,执政的沙巴君主制拥有相当大的行政权力,但它也与一个强大的民选议会和动员良好的公民社会共存。这种经常被忽视的混合体制植根于多元主义和开放的自由主义准则,使反对派集团能够推进民主改革,并拒绝镇压的威胁。向议会民主过渡,这在阿拉伯世界是罕见的,是可能的。然而,这需要克服王室内部、社会群体之间以及王室专制与社会本身之间的强烈分歧。
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引用次数: 1
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Journal of Democracy
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