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Do risk measure scores and diagnoses predict evaluator opinions in sexually violent predator cases? It depends on the evaluator. 风险测量评分和诊断是否能预测评估员在性暴力犯罪案件中的意见?这取决于评估者。
IF 3.2 2区 社会学 Q1 LAW Pub Date : 2024-10-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-12 DOI: 10.1037/lhb0000561
Marcus T Boccaccini, Daniel C Murrie, Paige B Harris

Objective: Field research increasingly reveals that forensic evaluators are not interchangeable. Instead, they tend to differ in their patterns of forensic opinions, in ways that likely reflect something about themselves, not just the persons evaluated. This study used data from sexually violent predator (SVP) evaluations to examine whether evaluator differences in making intermediate decisions (e.g., instrument scoring, assigning diagnoses) might explain their different patterns of final opinions.

Hypotheses: Although this study was generally exploratory and not strongly hypothesis driven, we expected that there might be evidence for a simple form of bias in which some evaluators would be more likely than others to consistently "find" indications of SVP status (i.e., consistently assigning higher risk scores and more SVP-relevant diagnoses) and, therefore, be more likely to find behavioral abnormality, the legal construct qualifying someone for commitment as an SVP.

Method: The study used data from 745 SVP evaluations conducted by 10 different evaluators who were assigned cases from the same referral stream. Potential evaluator difference variables included behavioral abnormality opinions, paraphilia and antisocial personality disorder diagnoses, and Psychopathy Checklist-Revised and Static-99 scores.

Results: Evaluator differences explained a statistically significant (p < .001) amount of variance in behavioral abnormality opinions (17%), paraphilia diagnoses (7%), and Psychopathy Checklist-Revised scores (16%). Contrary to our expectation of a simple tendency for some evaluators to find all indicators of SVP status more often than others, evaluators differed in the ways that underlying diagnoses and scores corresponded with their conclusions. The overall pattern was one in which different evaluators appeared to base their final opinions on different factors.

Conclusions: Findings reveal further evidence of substantial forensic evaluator differences in patterns of assigning instrument scores and reaching forensic conclusions. But these findings are the first to also reveal wide variability in their patterns of reaching forensic conclusions. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved).

目的:实地研究日益表明,法医鉴定人员并不是可以互换的。相反,他们往往在法医意见的模式上存在差异,这种差异很可能反映了他们自身的一些情况,而不仅仅是被评估者的情况。本研究使用了来自性暴力犯罪者(SVP)评估的数据,以研究评估者在做出中间决定(如工具评分、指定诊断)时的差异是否可以解释他们最终意见的不同模式:尽管这项研究总体上是探索性的,并没有强烈的假设驱动,但我们预计可能会有证据表明存在一种简单形式的偏差,即一些评估者比其他评估者更有可能持续 "发现 "SVP 状态的迹象(即持续给予更高的风险评分和更多与 SVP 相关的诊断),因此更有可能发现行为异常,而行为异常是使某人有资格作为 SVP 进行收容的法律构造:研究使用了由 10 位不同评估员进行的 745 次 SVP 评估的数据,这些评估员分配的案例来自同一转介流程。潜在的评估者差异变量包括行为异常意见、性变态和反社会人格障碍诊断、精神变态检查表-修订版和 Static-99 评分:评估者差异可以解释行为异常意见(17%)、性变态诊断(7%)和精神病态检查表-修订版评分(16%)的显著差异(p < .001)。与我们所预期的一些评估者比其他评估者更经常地发现 SVP 状态的所有指标这一简单趋势相反,评估者在基本诊断和分数与他们的结论的对应方式上存在差异。总的来说,不同的评估人员似乎根据不同的因素得出最终意见:研究结果进一步证明,法医评估员在给仪器打分和得出法医结论的模式上存在很大差异。但是,这些研究结果也首次揭示了他们在得出法医鉴定结论的模式方面存在的巨大差异。(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, 版权所有)。
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引用次数: 0
Are forensic evaluators more likely to conclude that Black or White defendants are malingering? 司法鉴定人员是更有可能得出黑人被告还是白人被告装病的结论呢?
IF 2.4 2区 社会学 Q1 LAW Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1037/lhb0000589
Lucy A Guarnera, Daniel C Murrie, Brett O Gardner, Scott D Bender

Objective: Malingering is a particularly stigmatizing forensic opinion that may be prone to racial bias, although scant research has investigated the possibility. We examined whether forensic evaluators are more likely to opine that Black defendants or White defendants are overstating mental health symptoms.

Hypotheses: Study 1 (a field study) was exploratory. Following Study 1 findings, in Study 2 (an experiment), we hypothesized that participants would opine malingering more frequently for a Black defendant compared with a White defendant.

Method: In Study 1, we reviewed a large statewide sample of trial competence reports, of which 558 identified the defendant's race as Black or White. We coded feigning/malingering opinion and defendant race to assess associations. In Study 2, we randomly assigned forensic clinicians (N = 136; 78.7% identified as White only; 93.3% held a clinical doctoral degree; M = 10.7 years since earning highest degree) to read a mock competence report identifying the defendant's race as Black or White. Participants then provided opinions about malingering, competence, and other clinical judgments.

Results: Study 1 demonstrated that one prolific real-world evaluator identified Black defendants as feigning/malingering five times more often than White defendants, although there was no racial disproportionality in the overall sample after accounting for this one evaluator's influence. In Study 2, defendant race was not significantly associated with malingering opinions or virtually any other clinical judgments. Hospital-based evaluators opined malingering more often than evaluators in private practice, and novice evaluators opined malingering more often than experienced evaluators.

Conclusions: Assessing racial bias among forensic clinicians is complex, particularly when the target is a stigmatizing but low-base-rate opinion such as malingering. Results underscore the impact of individual evaluator differences and suggest a need for evaluators themselves, and perhaps state agencies, to monitor forensic opinions to identify potential bias and remediate outlying practice. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved).

目的:装病是一种特别污名化的法医意见,可能容易产生种族偏见,尽管很少有研究调查这种可能性。我们调查了法医评估人员是否更倾向于认为黑人被告或白人被告夸大了心理健康症状。假设:研究1(实地研究)为探索性研究。根据研究1的发现,在研究2(一个实验)中,我们假设参与者会更频繁地认为黑人被告比白人被告装病。方法:在研究1中,我们回顾了全州范围内的审判能力报告样本,其中558份将被告的种族确定为黑人或白人。我们对伪造/伪造意见和被告种族进行编码以评估关联。在研究2中,我们随机分配了法医临床医生(N = 136;78.7%为白人;93.3%具有临床博士学位;M =获得最高学位后10.7年)阅读一份模拟能力报告,指出被告的种族是黑人还是白人。然后,参与者提供了关于装病、能力和其他临床判断的意见。结果:研究1表明,一个多产的现实世界评估者认为黑人被告伪造/装病的频率是白人被告的五倍,尽管在考虑到这一个评估者的影响后,在整个样本中没有种族不成比例。在研究2中,被告的种族与装病意见或几乎任何其他临床判断没有显著关联。基于医院的评估者比私人执业的评估者更常认为是装病,而新手评估者比有经验的评估者更常认为是装病。结论:评估法医临床医生的种族偏见是复杂的,特别是当目标是一个污名化但低基础率的意见,如装病。结果强调了评估人员个体差异的影响,并建议评估人员自己,也许是国家机构,需要监控法医意见,以识别潜在的偏见并纠正偏离常规的做法。(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA,版权所有)。
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引用次数: 0
Bias in the justice and legal systems: Cumulative disadvantage as a framework for understanding. 司法和法律制度中的偏见:作为理解框架的累积劣势。
IF 3.2 2区 社会学 Q1 LAW Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1037/lhb0000608
Lucy A Guarnera, Jennifer T Perillo, Kyle C Scherr

Bias is a pervasive aspect of human thought and behavior that influences how we perceive, interpret, and respond to the world around us. Although built on assumptions of fairness and equality, the justice and legal systems are not exempt from individual and structural biases, which contribute to differential outcomes and disproportionately affect individuals who are marginalized based on race, gender, socioeconomic status, education, and other factors. The special issue showcases innovative science and clinical perspectives on bias in the justice and legal systems, including its underlying mechanisms, consequences, and potential interventions. We offer a framework centered on cumulative disadvantage to conceptualize how biases can accrue and compound across different stages of the justice and legal systems. The articles examine issues involving multiple actors (e.g., police, suspects, attorneys, defendants, psychologists, probation officers, jurors, judges) engaged in various processes (e.g., stops, frisks, searches, interrogation, risk assessment, evidence review, decision-making) at different stages in the justice and legal systems (e.g., initial contact, investigation, forensic evaluation, trial, post-conviction). Much like research in other domains, the special issue articles reveal that bias in the justice and legal systems is prevalent, pernicious, and difficult to attenuate. Rigorous, transparent science and evidence-based practices targeting bias at early stages in the justice and legal systems before disadvantage accumulates are sorely needed and should inform future intervention efforts. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved).

偏见是人类思想和行为中普遍存在的一个方面,它影响着我们对周围世界的感知、解释和反应。尽管司法和法律体系建立在公平和平等的假设之上,但也存在个人和结构性偏见,这些偏见导致了不同的结果,并对因种族、性别、社会经济地位、教育和其他因素而被边缘化的个人产生了不成比例的影响。本期特刊展示了关于司法和法律系统中偏见的创新科学和临床观点,包括其潜在机制、后果和潜在干预措施。我们提供了一个以累积劣势为中心的框架,以概念化偏见如何在司法和法律系统的不同阶段积累和复合。这些文章探讨了涉及多个行为者(如警察、嫌疑人、律师、被告、心理学家、缓刑官、陪审员、法官)的问题,这些行为者在司法和法律制度的不同阶段(如初步接触、调查、法医评估、审判、定罪后)参与各种程序(如拦截、搜身、搜查、审讯、风险评估、证据审查、决策)。就像其他领域的研究一样,特刊文章揭示了司法和法律体系中的偏见是普遍的、有害的,而且很难减弱。我们迫切需要在司法和法律系统的早期阶段,在不利因素积累之前针对偏见采取严格、透明的科学和循证实践,并应为今后的干预工作提供信息。(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA,版权所有)。
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引用次数: 0
Suppressing myside bias in civil litigation. 在民事诉讼中压制自己的偏见。
IF 3.2 2区 社会学 Q1 LAW Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1037/lhb0000584
Mihael A Jeklic

Objective: Myside bias-the tendency to evaluate and generate evidence as well as test hypotheses in a manner biased toward prior beliefs-causes disputants in litigation to harbor overconfident expectations of judicial awards and reduces odds of settlement. Two studies tested three interventions to suppress myside bias in civil litigation settings.

Hypotheses: I predicted that the participants in the baseline conditions would exhibit myside bias in award estimates and argument ratings and that the interventions would attenuate it.

Method: Two between-subjects experimental studies using students of law (n = 164, Mage = 24.21 years, 53% female; n = 181, Mage = 20.89 years, 61% female) compared the participants' award estimates and argument ratings in a simulated civil dispute. The interventions (a) manipulated the advocates to think they represented the opposing side during initial information processing (side-switch condition), (b) required the participants to generate and evaluate arguments for both sides (dialectical condition), and (c) affected the participants' motivations by threatening dismissal in case of estimation error (goal states condition).

Results: Baseline groups in both studies displayed significant myside bias in award estimates (all ds ≥ 1.12) and argument ratings (all ds ≥ 1.29). In Study 1, the side-switch intervention eliminated bias in argument ratings (d = 0.73 and 0.72) but only reduced (d = 0.35) rather than eliminated bias in award estimates. In Study 2, the dialectical intervention reduced bias in argument ratings (d = 0.74 and 0.58) but did not eliminate it; it also failed to reduce bias in award estimates. The goal states intervention suppressed myside bias in both argument ratings (d = 0.76 and 0.82) and award estimates (d = 0.78).

Conclusions: Myside bias in litigation settings is robust and difficult to suppress. Accountability interventions show potential as bias-attenuating strategies. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved).

目的:我的偏见——倾向于评估和产生证据,以及以偏向于先前信念的方式检验假设——导致诉讼中的争议者对司法裁决抱有过度自信的期望,并降低和解的几率。两项研究测试了三种干预措施,以抑制民事诉讼环境中的我方偏见。假设:我预测基线条件下的参与者会在奖励估计和争论评级方面表现出我的偏见,而干预会减弱它。方法:采用两组受试者间实验研究,选取法学专业学生164名,年龄24.21岁,女性53%;n = 181, Mage = 20.89, 61%为女性)比较了模拟民事纠纷中参与者对奖励的估计和争论的评分。干预措施(a)在初始信息处理过程中操纵提倡者认为他们代表了相反的一方(侧转条件),(b)要求参与者生成和评估双方的论点(辩证条件),(c)在估计错误的情况下通过威胁解雇来影响参与者的动机(目标状态条件)。结果:两项研究的基线组在奖励估计(所有ds≥1.12)和争论评分(所有ds≥1.29)中显示显著的myside偏倚。在研究1中,侧转干预消除了争论评分的偏倚(d = 0.73和0.72),但只是减少了(d = 0.35)而不是消除了奖励估计的偏倚。在研究2中,辩证干预减少了争论评分的偏倚(d = 0.74和0.58),但没有消除偏倚;它也没能减少奖金估算中的偏见。目标状态干预抑制了论点评分(d = 0.76和0.82)和奖励估计(d = 0.78)中的我方偏见。结论:诉讼环境中的我方偏见是强大的,难以抑制的。问责干预显示出作为减轻偏见策略的潜力。(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA,版权所有)。
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引用次数: 0
Regional gender bias and year predict gender representation on civil trial teams. 地区性别偏见和年份可预测民事审判团队中的性别比例。
IF 3.2 2区 社会学 Q1 LAW Pub Date : 2024-10-01 Epub Date: 2024-10-31 DOI: 10.1037/lhb0000585
Hannah J Phalen, Megan L Lawrence, Kristen L Gittings, Emily N Line, Sara N Thomas, Rose E Eerdmans, Taylor C Bettis, John C Campbell, Jessica M Salerno

Objective: There are documented gender disparities in the legal field. We examined whether gender representation on civil trial teams varied on the basis of (a) the degree of regional gender bias "in the air" and (b) time.

Hypotheses: We hypothesized that women were underrepresented both on trial teams and in leadership roles within those teams. We predicted that these gender disparities were exacerbated in regions with stronger regional gender bias and that these gender disparities attenuated over time.

Method: We coded attorney gender and case outcomes in real civil trials (N = 655). We created regional implicit and explicit gender bias scores based on the year and region of the case using Project Implicit data. Finally, we used order-constrained inference and Bayesian modeling to identify the best-performing models.

Results: Overall, women represented only 17% of attorneys at trial and 13% in leadership roles-indicating vast gender disparities. Gender disparities on teams and in leadership roles were more extreme in regions with high (vs. low) regional gender bias (teams: Bayes factor [BF] = 9,182; leadership: BF = 91,667) and improved over time (teams: BF = 6,420; leadership: BF = 3,495). Gender alone best predicted the likelihood of serving in a leadership role (BF = 1,197,397).

Conclusions: Female attorneys were grossly underrepresented on civil trial teams. Gender representation on teams, but not leadership roles, has improved slightly over time. Culture may also contribute; women were less represented on trial teams in regions with greater gender bias in the air-particularly in leadership roles. Despite these slight improvements in representation on trial teams over time and in low-bias regions, gender disparities in leadership roles persist over time and levels of regional bias. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved).

目标:在法律领域存在有据可查的性别差异。我们研究了民事审判团队中的性别代表性是否会因(a)"空气中 "的地区性别偏见程度和(b)时间而有所不同:我们假设,妇女在审判团队和团队领导岗位上的代表性都不足。我们预测,在地区性别偏见较强的地区,这些性别差异会加剧,并且随着时间的推移,这些性别差异会减弱:我们对真实民事审判中的律师性别和案件结果进行了编码(N = 655)。我们利用 "隐性项目 "的数据,根据案件的年份和地区创建了地区隐性和显性性别偏见分数。最后,我们使用有序约束推理和贝叶斯建模来确定表现最佳的模型:总体而言,女性律师在审判中仅占 17%,在领导岗位上仅占 13%,这表明性别差异巨大。在地区性别偏见较高(与较低)的地区,团队和领导职位中的性别差异更为严重(团队:贝叶斯系数 [BF] = 9,182;领导职位:贝叶斯系数 = 91,667),并且随着时间的推移有所改善(团队:贝叶斯系数 = 6,420;领导职位:贝叶斯系数 = 3,495)。性别本身最能预测担任领导职务的可能性(BF = 1,197,397):结论:女性律师在民事审判团队中的代表性严重不足。随着时间的推移,团队中的性别比例略有提高,但担任领导职务的比例却没有提高。文化也可能是原因之一;在空气中性别偏见较严重的地区,女性在审判团队中的代表性较低,尤其是在领导岗位上。尽管随着时间的推移和偏差较小的地区,女性在试验团队中的代表性略有提高,但领导岗位上的性别差异仍然随着时间的推移和地区偏差的程度而存在。(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, 版权所有)。
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引用次数: 0
The Miranda penalty: Inferring guilt from suspects' silence. 米兰达刑罚:从嫌疑人的沉默中推断其有罪。
IF 3.2 2区 社会学 Q1 LAW Pub Date : 2024-10-01 Epub Date: 2024-11-21 DOI: 10.1037/lhb0000587
Megan L Lawrence, Emma R Saiter, Rose E Eerdmans, Laura Smalarz

Objective: Despite the risks inherent to custodial police interrogation, criminal suspects may waive their Miranda rights and submit to police questioning in fear that exercising their rights or remaining silent will make them appear guilty. We tested whether such a Miranda penalty exists.

Hypotheses: We predicted that people would perceive suspects who invoke their Miranda rights or sit in silence during an interrogation as more likely to be guilty than those who waive their Miranda rights.

Method: In two experiments, undergraduate psychology students (Experiment 1; N = 256) and students enrolled in law-enforcement-related degree programs (Experiment 2; N = 119) were instructed to play the role of a police officer investigating a series of crimes in which the suspect invoked his Miranda rights, sat in silence, or spoke to police. Participants evaluated each suspect along various characteristics (e.g., honest, suspicious), assessed his likely guilt, and reported how many hours they would allocate to investigating the suspect versus other potential suspects.

Results: Suspects who invoked their right to silence or remained silent, compared with those who waived their rights and spoke to police, were perceived more negatively and judged as guiltier. Participants also allocated more hours toward investigating such suspects.

Conclusions: The protective power of Miranda is eroded by the tendency for people to infer guilt from a suspect's decision to invoke Miranda or remain silent during police interrogation. This Miranda penalty violates suspects' legal protection from being penalized for exercising their constitutional rights against self-incrimination and may bias the investigation and prosecution of criminal suspects. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved).

目的:尽管警方的羁押审讯存在固有风险,但由于担心行使权利或保持沉默会使自己显得有罪,犯罪嫌疑人可能会放弃米兰达权利并接受警方讯问。我们测试了这种米兰达惩罚是否存在:我们预测,与放弃米兰达权利的人相比,人们会认为在审讯期间援引米兰达权利或保持沉默的嫌疑人更有可能有罪:在两个实验中,心理学本科生(实验1;人数=256)和执法相关专业的学生(实验2;人数=119)被要求扮演一名警官,调查一系列犯罪案件,在这些案件中,嫌疑人会援引米兰达权利、保持沉默或与警方交谈。参与者根据各种特征(如诚实、可疑)对每个嫌疑人进行评价,评估其可能的罪行,并报告他们将分配多少时间调查该嫌疑人和其他潜在嫌疑人:结果:与放弃权利并与警方交谈的嫌疑人相比,援引沉默权或保持沉默的嫌疑人受到的负面评价更多,被判定为更有罪。参与者还花费了更多的时间来调查这些嫌疑人:结论:在警方审讯期间,人们倾向于从嫌疑人援引米兰达协议或保持沉默的决定中推断其有罪,从而削弱了米兰达协议的保护作用。这种米兰达惩罚违反了对嫌疑人的法律保护,使其不会因行使宪法赋予的免于自证其罪的权利而受到惩罚,并可能使对犯罪嫌疑人的调查和起诉出现偏差。(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA,保留所有权利)。
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引用次数: 0
Disparate impact of risk assessment instruments: A systematic review. 风险评估工具的不同影响:系统综述。
IF 3.2 2区 社会学 Q1 LAW Pub Date : 2024-10-01 Epub Date: 2024-09-30 DOI: 10.1037/lhb0000582
Spencer G Lawson, Emma L Narkewicz, Gina M Vincent

Objective: One concern about the use of risk assessment instruments in legal decisions is the potential for disparate impact by race or ethnicity. This means that one racial or ethnic group will experience harsher legal outcomes than another because of higher or biased risk estimates. We conducted a systematic review of the literature to synthesize research examining the real-world impact of juvenile and adult risk instruments on racial/ethnic disparities in legal decision making.

Hypotheses: Given the nature of research synthesis, we did not test formal hypotheses.

Method: Our systematic literature search as of July 2023 identified 21 articles that investigated the disparate impact of 13 risk assessment instruments on various legal outcomes. Most of these instruments were actuarial pretrial screening instruments.

Results: Our narrative synthesis indicated that there is not strong evidence of risk instruments contributing to greater system disparity. Ten articles indicated that adopting risk instruments did not create (or exacerbate preexisting) disparities, and eight articles found that instrument use reduced disparities in legal decision making. Three articles reported evidence of disparate impact of risk instruments; only one of these studies received a strong study quality assessment score. We observed a scarcity of high-quality articles that employed what we deem to be the gold standard approach for examining the disparate impact of risk instruments (i.e., pretest-posttest design).

Conclusions: The evidence signals that risk instruments can contribute to reductions in disparities across multiple stages of legal decision making. Yet study quality remains low, and most research has been conducted on decisions during the pretrial stage. More rigorous research on disparate impact across diverse legal decision points and approaches to risk assessment is needed. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved).

目的:在法律决策中使用风险评估工具的一个问题是,可能会对种族或民族产生不同的影响。这意味着,一个种族或民族群体会因为较高或有偏差的风险估计而经历比另一个种族或民族群体更严厉的法律结果。我们对文献进行了系统性的回顾,以综合考察青少年和成人风险评估工具在现实世界中对法律决策中种族/民族差异的影响:鉴于研究综述的性质,我们没有检验正式的假设:截至 2023 年 7 月,我们的系统性文献检索发现了 21 篇文章,这些文章调查了 13 种风险评估工具对各种法律结果的不同影响。这些工具大多是精算审前筛查工具:我们的叙述性综述表明,没有强有力的证据表明风险评估工具会导致更大的系统差异。有 10 篇文章指出,采用风险工具并没有造成(或加剧)原有的差异,有 8 篇文章发现,使用风险工具减少了法律决策中的差异。三篇文章报告了风险工具造成差异影响的证据;其中只有一篇研究获得了较高的研究质量评估分数。我们注意到,采用我们认为是研究风险工具差异影响的黄金标准方法(即前测-后测设计)的高质量文章很少:证据表明,风险工具有助于减少法律决策多个阶段的差异。然而,研究质量仍然不高,而且大多数研究都是针对审前阶段的决定。需要对不同法律决策点和风险评估方法的差异影响进行更严格的研究。(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, 版权所有)。
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引用次数: 0
Confirmatory information seeking is robust in psychologists' diagnostic reasoning. 在心理学家的诊断推理中,确认性信息寻求是很强的。
IF 3.2 2区 社会学 Q1 LAW Pub Date : 2024-10-01 Epub Date: 2024-09-19 DOI: 10.1037/lhb0000574
Tess M S Neal, Nina MacLean, Robert D Morgan, Daniel C Murrie

Objective: Across two experiments, we examined three cognitive biases (order effects, context effects, confirmatory bias) in licensed psychologists' diagnostic reasoning.

Hypotheses: Our main prediction was that psychologist-participants would seek confirming versus disconfirming information after forming an initial diagnostic hypothesis, even given multiple opportunities to seek new information in the same case. We also expected that individual differences would affect diagnostic reasoning, such that psychologists with lower (vs. higher) cognitive reflection tendencies and larger (vs. smaller) bias blind spots would be more likely to demonstrate confirmatory bias.

Method: In Study 1, we recruited 149 licensed psychologists (M = 18 years of experience; 44% women; 71% White) and exposed them to one of four randomly assigned vignettes that varied order effects (one set of symptoms in reversed orders) and context effects (court referral vs. employer referral). They rank ordered a list of four possible initial diagnostic hypotheses and received a piped follow-up choice of which of two pieces of information (confirmatory or disconfirmatory) they wanted to test their initial hypothesis. Study 2 (n = 131; M = 21 years of experience; 53% men; 68% White) replicated and extended Study 1, following the same procedure except offering three sequential choice opportunities.

Results: Both studies found robust confirmatory information seeking: 92% sought confirmatory information in Study 1, and confirmation persisted across three opportunities in Study 2 (90%, 84%, 77%), although it lowered with each opportunity (generalized logistic mixed regression model), F(2, 378) = 3.85, p = .02, ηp² = .02.

Conclusion: These findings expand a growing body of research on bias in expert judgment. Specifically, psychologists may engage in robust confirmation bias in the process of forming diagnoses. Although further research is needed on bias and its impact on accuracy, psychologists may need to take steps to reduce confirmatory reasoning processes, such as documenting evidence for and against each decision element. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved).

目的: 我们通过两项实验研究了持证心理学家诊断推理中的三种认知偏差(顺序效应、情境效应、确认偏差):通过两次实验,我们考察了持证心理学家诊断推理中的三种认知偏差(顺序效应、情境效应、确认偏差):我们的主要预测是,心理学家参与者在形成初步诊断假设后,即使有多次机会在同一案例中寻求新信息,他们也会寻求确认信息或不确认信息。我们还预计个体差异会影响诊断推理,比如认知反思倾向较低(与较高)和偏见盲点较大(与较小)的心理学家更有可能表现出确认性偏见:在研究 1 中,我们招募了 149 名有执照的心理学家(男 = 18 年工作经验;44% 为女性;71% 为白人),并让他们接触四个随机分配的小故事之一,这些小故事具有不同的顺序效应(一组症状顺序颠倒)和情境效应(法院转介与雇主转介)。他们对四种可能的初步诊断假设进行排序,并通过管道后续选择他们想要验证其初步假设的两种信息(确证信息或非确证信息)中的一种。研究 2(n = 131;男 = 21 年工作经验;53% 为男性;68% 为白人)复制并扩展了研究 1,采用了相同的程序,但提供了三次顺序选择机会:这两项研究都发现了强烈的确认性信息寻求:在研究 1 中,92% 的人寻求确认性信息;在研究 2 中,确认性信息在三次机会中持续存在(90%、84%、77%),尽管每次机会的确认性信息都在降低(广义逻辑混合回归模型),F(2, 378) = 3.85, p = .02, ηp² = .02.结论:这些发现拓展了有关专家判断偏差的研究领域。具体来说,心理学家在形成诊断结果的过程中可能会产生强烈的确认偏差。虽然还需要进一步研究偏差及其对准确性的影响,但心理学家可能需要采取措施减少确认推理过程,例如记录每个决策要素的正反证据。(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA,保留所有权利)。
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引用次数: 0
Predictive bias in pretrial risk assessment: Application of the Public Safety Assessment in a Native American population. 审前风险评估中的预测偏差:公共安全评估在美国原住民中的应用。
IF 3.2 2区 社会学 Q1 LAW Pub Date : 2024-10-01 Epub Date: 2024-08-12 DOI: 10.1037/lhb0000562
Samantha A Zottola, Kamiya Stewart, Violette Cloud, Liz Hassett, Sarah L Desmarais

Objective: Native Americans are vastly overrepresented in U.S. jails and people in rural communities face unique barriers (e.g., limited public transportation and services) that may impact how well pretrial risk assessments predict outcomes. Yet, these populations are understudied in the literature examining the predictive validity and, more importantly, the potential predictive bias of pretrial risk assessments. We sought to address these gaps.

Hypotheses: We had three aims: (a) examine the validity of Public Safety Assessment (PSA) scores in predicting pretrial outcomes in a county with a high degree of rurality, (b) compare predictive validity and test for predictive bias among Native American and White people, and (c) compare predictive validity and test for predictive bias among men and women.

Method: Our sample comprised 4,570 closed cases involving people released on personal recognizance bonds over a 3.5-year period. About two thirds were Native American and men. The PSA was completed and outcome data were collected as part of routine pretrial practice.

Results: In slightly more than one third of cases, people failed to appear or were rearrested during the pretrial period. In the full sample, PSA scores demonstrated poor validity in predicting failure to appear but fair validity in predicting new arrest. Further analyses revealed predictive bias as a function of both race and sex in the prediction of failure to appear. In contrast, we did not find evidence of bias in the prediction of new criminal arrest, although predictive validity was slightly better for White people and men.

Conclusion: Our findings raise concerns regarding the use of PSA scores to inform pretrial decisions related to risk for failure to appear in rural communities and among Native American people. They also highlight concerns regarding reliance on static factors as well as the need for research on the validity of pretrial risk assessments in these populations. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved).

目标:美国原住民在美国监狱中所占比例过高,农村社区的人们面临着独特的障碍(如有限的公共交通和服务),这可能会影响审前风险评估对结果的预测。然而,在研究审前风险评估的预测有效性以及更重要的潜在预测偏差的文献中,对这些人群的研究不足。我们试图填补这些空白:我们有三个目标:(a)研究公共安全评估(PSA)分数在预测一个乡村化程度较高的县的审前结果方面的有效性;(b)比较美国原住民和白人的预测有效性并检验预测偏差;(c)比较男性和女性的预测有效性并检验预测偏差:我们的样本包括 4,570 起已结案的案件,涉及在 3.5 年内以个人担保金获释的人员。其中约三分之二为美国原住民和男性。作为常规审前实践的一部分,我们完成了 PSA 并收集了结果数据:在略高于三分之一的案件中,当事人在审前期间未能出庭或再次被捕。在全部样本中,PSA 分数在预测未出庭方面的有效性较差,但在预测再次被捕方面的有效性尚可。进一步的分析表明,在预测未出庭方面,种族和性别都存在预测偏差。相比之下,我们没有发现在预测新的刑事逮捕方面存在偏差的证据,尽管白人和男性的预测有效性稍好一些:我们的研究结果引起了人们对使用 PSA 分数为审前决定提供信息的关注,这些信息与农村社区和美国原住民的失败出庭风险有关。研究结果还强调了对依赖静态因素的担忧,以及对这些人群审前风险评估有效性进行研究的必要性。(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA,保留所有权利)。
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引用次数: 0
Does engaging in reason elaboration mitigate bias in mock jurors' evaluations of confession evidence? 参与理性阐述是否减轻了模拟陪审员对供词证据评估的偏见?
IF 3.2 2区 社会学 Q1 LAW Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1037/lhb0000595
Alexander D Perry, Amelia Mindthoff, Skye A Woestehoff, Christian A Meissner

Objective: Prior research suggests that jurors may commit the fundamental attribution error when evaluating confession evidence (i.e., failing to recognize the situational pressures inherent to coercive interrogations) and exhibit belief perseverance when presented with expert testimony or judicial instructions seeking to remediate juror knowledge. Given mixed findings regarding the use of safeguards that might assist jurors in rendering appropriate decisions, the current research examined the effectiveness of reason elaboration instructions.

Hypotheses: We hypothesized that instructing mock jurors to engage in reason elaboration (Experiments 1, 2, and 4: list reasons; Experiment 3: make an initial judgment and then list reasons for the opposite of their initial belief) for why an individual might confess may help them to become more sensitive to situational and dispositional confession risk factors. We expected that reason elaboration instructions would lead to fewer convictions when a coercive interrogation was presented, but not in cases in which a noncoercive interrogation was presented (i.e., a sensitivity effect).

Method: Across four experiments, jury-eligible participants (N = 1,319) read a murder trial transcript and then responded to items measuring perceived interrogation coerciveness, defendant vulnerability, and verdict decision. We manipulated interrogation approach (noncoercive vs. coercive) and reason listing for a true and/or false confession.

Results: Across all four experiments, mock jurors demonstrated appropriate knowledge of false confession risk factors, and there was no interactive effect of our reason elaboration task with interrogation condition.

Conclusions: Reason elaboration does not appear to be an effective safeguard for debiasing and improving sensitivity in jurors' evaluations of confession evidence. Jurors appeared relatively proficient in distinguishing between coercive and noncoercive interrogation tactics. Future research should assess alternative approaches that can leverage mock jurors' knowledge of appropriate risk factors and further improve their decision making. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved).

目的:先前的研究表明,陪审员在评估供词证据时可能会犯基本归因错误(即未能认识到强制审讯所固有的情境压力),并在面对专家证词或司法指示时表现出信念坚持,以寻求纠正陪审员的知识。鉴于关于使用可能有助于陪审员作出适当决定的保障措施的调查结果好坏参半,目前的研究审查了阐述理由指导的有效性。假设:我们假设指导模拟陪审员进行理由阐述(实验1、2和4:列出理由;实验3:对一个人可能坦白的原因做出初步判断,然后列出与他们最初的信念相反的原因,这可以帮助他们对情境和性格上的坦白风险因素变得更加敏感。我们预计,当出现强制审讯时,详细说明理由的指示会导致较少的定罪,但在出现非强制审讯的情况下则不然(即,敏感效应)。方法:在四个实验中,符合陪审团资格的参与者(N = 1319)阅读了一份谋杀案审判记录,然后对测量感知审讯胁迫性、被告脆弱性和判决决定的项目做出反应。我们操纵了审讯方式(非强制vs.强制),并列出了供出真假的原因。结果:在四个实验中,模拟陪审员对虚假供述的风险因素有适当的认识,我们的理由阐述任务与审讯条件没有交互作用。结论:理性阐述并不能有效保障陪审员对供词证据评价的偏向性和敏感性。陪审员似乎相对熟练地区分了强制和非强制审讯策略。未来的研究应评估替代方法,可以利用模拟陪审员的知识适当的风险因素,并进一步提高他们的决策。(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA,版权所有)。
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引用次数: 0
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Law and Human Behavior
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