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Risk assessment of child-pornography-exclusive offenders. 专门从事儿童色情制品犯罪者的风险评估。
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 LAW Pub Date : 2023-08-01 DOI: 10.1037/lhb0000537
Nicholas Scurich, Daniel A Krauss

Objectives: A sizeable percentage of federally sentenced child pornography offenders have no history of other criminal offenses (hereinafter "child-pornography-exclusive offenders"). There is a critical legal need to assess the recidivism risk of this population. The Child Pornography Offender Risk Tool (CPORT) is a commonly used actuarial instrument developed specifically to assess the risk of recidivism among child pornography offenders.

Hypotheses: We hypothesized that there would be a sound scientific basis supporting the use of the CPORT in the United States as well as research demonstrating its applicability to child-pornography-exclusive offenders, given that the instrument is currently being used in forensic settings.

Method: We critically examined all of the existing empirical studies that constitute the research base of the CPORT.

Results: The empirical studies of the CPORT suffer from at least three significant limitations: extremely small samples of recidivists, inordinate amounts of missing data, and potentially outdated samples. Further, none of the studies have tested the CPORT in a sample of offenders in the United States. An illustrative example of how the instrument has been misapplied in forensic settings and courtroom testimony is provided.

Conclusions: These issues make it inappropriate to use the CPORT on child-pornography-exclusive offenders in the United States at this time. We conclude by describing avenues for future research that can advance our understanding of this distinct and growing population of offenders. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

目标:相当大比例的联邦判处儿童色情犯罪者没有其他刑事犯罪史(以下简称“儿童色情犯罪者”)。对这一人群的再犯风险进行评估是一项至关重要的法律需要。儿童色情犯罪者风险工具(CPORT)是一种常用的精算工具,专门用于评估儿童色情犯罪者的再犯风险。假设:我们假设在美国使用CPORT是有可靠的科学依据的,而且考虑到该工具目前正在法医环境中使用,也有研究表明它适用于只涉及儿童色情的罪犯。方法:对构成CPORT研究基础的所有现有实证研究进行批判性分析。结果:CPORT的实证研究至少存在三个显著的局限性:累犯样本极小,数据缺失量过大,样本可能过时。此外,这些研究都没有在美国的罪犯样本中测试CPORT。提供了一个说明该工具如何在法医环境和法庭证词中被误用的例子。结论:这些问题使得目前在美国将CPORT用于专门针对儿童色情的罪犯是不合适的。最后,我们描述了未来研究的途径,可以促进我们对这一独特的和不断增长的罪犯群体的理解。(PsycInfo数据库记录(c) 2023 APA,版权所有)。
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引用次数: 2
Estimation of eyewitness error rates in fair and biased lineups. 在公平和有偏见的阵容中估计目击者的错误率。
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 LAW Pub Date : 2023-08-01 DOI: 10.1037/lhb0000538.supp
R. J. Fitzgerald, C. Tredoux, Stefana Juncu
OBJECTIVEThe risk of mistaken identification for innocent suspects in lineups can be estimated by correcting the overall error rate by the number of people in the lineup. We compared this nominal size correction to a new effective size correction, which adjusts the error rate for the number of plausible lineup members.HYPOTHESESWe hypothesized that (a) increasing lineup bias would increase misidentifications of a designated innocent suspect; (b) with the effective size correction, increasing lineup bias would also increase the estimate of innocent-suspect misidentifications; and (c) with the nominal size correction, lineup bias would have no effect on the estimate of innocent-suspect misidentifications.METHODIn a reanalysis of previous literature, we obtained 10 data sets from Open Science Framework. In three new experiments (Ns = 686, 405, and 1,531, respectively), participants observed a staged crime and completed a fair or biased lineup.RESULTSIn the reanalysis of previous literature, less than four of six lineup members were identified frequently enough to be classified as plausible, M = 3.78, 95% confidence interval [CI: 2.20, 5.36]. In the new experiments, increasing lineup bias increased mistaken identifications of a designated innocent suspect, odds ratio (OR) = 5.50, 95% CI [2.77, 10.95] and also increased the effective size-corrected estimate of innocent-suspect misidentifications, OR = 3.04, 95% CI [2.13, 4.33]. With the nominal size correction, lineup bias had no effect on the estimate of innocent-suspect misidentifications, OR = 0.84, 95% CI [0.60, 1.18].CONCLUSIONSMost lineups include a combination of plausible and implausible lineup members. Contrary to the nominal size correction, which ignores implausible lineup members, the effective size correction is sensitive to implausible lineup members and accounts for lineup bias when estimating the risk of innocent suspect misidentifications. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).
目的通过根据队列中的人数校正总体错误率,可以估计队列中无辜嫌疑人被错误识别的风险。我们将这种标称大小校正与新的有效大小校正进行了比较,该校正调整了合理阵容成员数量的错误率。假设我们假设(a)阵容偏见的增加会增加对指定无辜嫌疑人的误认;(b) 在有效的尺寸校正下,增加阵容偏差也会增加对无辜嫌疑人误认的估计;以及(c)在标称大小校正的情况下,排列偏差不会对无辜嫌疑人误认的估计产生影响。方法在对以往文献的重新分析中,我们从开放科学框架中获得了10个数据集。在三个新的实验中(Ns分别为686、405和1531),参与者观察到了一个阶段性犯罪,并完成了一个公平或有偏见的阵容。结果在对先前文献的重新分析中,六个队列成员中只有不到四个被频繁地识别为可信,M=3.78,95%置信区间[CI:2.20,5.36]。在新的实验中,增加的队列偏倚增加了对指定无辜嫌疑人的错误识别,比值比(OR)=5.50,95%置信区间[2.77,10.95],还增加了对无辜嫌疑人误认的有效大小校正估计值,OR=3.04,95%置信区间+2.13,4.33]。在标称大小校正的情况下,阵容偏差对无辜嫌疑人误认的估计值没有影响,OR=0.84,95%可信区间[0.60,1.18]。结论大多数阵容包括可信和不可信阵容成员的组合。与忽略不可信的阵容成员的名义规模修正相反,有效规模修正对不可信的队伍成员敏感,并在估计无辜嫌疑人误认的风险时考虑了阵容偏差。(PsycInfo数据库记录(c)2023 APA,保留所有权利)。
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引用次数: 0
The relationship between victim impact statements and judicial decision making: An archival analysis of sentencing outcomes. 被害人影响陈述与司法决策的关系:量刑结果档案分析。
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 LAW Pub Date : 2023-08-01 DOI: 10.1037/lhb0000535
Gena K Dufour, Marguerite Ternes, Veronica Stinson

Objective: Victim impact statements (VISs) are testimonies that convey the emotional, physical, and financial harm that victims have suffered as the result of a crime. Although VISs are often presented to the court at sentencing, it is unclear whether they impact judicial decisions regarding sentencing.

Hypotheses: We did not have any formal a priori hypothesis but instead examined five research questions. The first two explored whether the relationship between the victim and the offender, as well as the type of crime, was associated with differences in the likelihood of VIS submission. The following two explored whether the presence of a VIS was associated with differences in sentencing outcomes (incarceration, probation, ancillary orders, parole eligibility). The final research question explored whether the number of VISs and the delivery format (oral vs. written) was associated with differences in sentencing outcomes.

Method: We coded and analyzed 1,332 sentencing rulings across Canada from 2016 to 2018 that included the phrase "impact statement." We coded for 87 variables, including information about the VIS, the victims and offenders, crime type, and sentencing outcomes.

Results: Overall, VISs are more likely to be delivered in cases in which the crime is more severe. Once we controlled for the type of crime, sentencing outcomes were unrelated to the presence of VISs. Sentences were longer when VISs were delivered orally than in written format and when more than one statement was submitted.

Conclusions: The relationship between VISs and sentencing outcomes is closely tied to several extralegal factors and should be investigated further. This research offers insight into the mechanics of victim evidence at sentencing. The findings of this study have implications for lawyers, researchers, judges, victims, offenders, and other stakeholders in our legal systems. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

目的:受害者影响陈述(VISs)是传达受害者因犯罪而遭受的情感、身体和经济伤害的证词。虽然在量刑时经常向法院提交vis,但尚不清楚它们是否会影响有关量刑的司法决定。假设:我们没有任何正式的先验假设,而是检查了五个研究问题。前两项研究探讨了受害者和罪犯之间的关系,以及犯罪类型,是否与VIS服从可能性的差异有关。接下来的两个研究探讨了VIS的存在是否与量刑结果(监禁、缓刑、辅助命令、假释资格)的差异有关。最后的研究问题探讨了vis的数量和交付形式(口头与书面)是否与量刑结果的差异有关。方法:我们对2016年至2018年加拿大各地包含“影响陈述”一词的1332项判决进行了编码和分析。我们编码了87个变量,包括VIS、受害者和罪犯、犯罪类型和量刑结果的信息。结果:总体而言,在犯罪更严重的情况下,vis更有可能被交付。一旦我们控制了犯罪类型,量刑结果与vis的存在无关。口头陈述的句子要比书面陈述的句子长,而且要提交一份以上的陈述。结论:vis与量刑结果的关系与几个法外因素密切相关,应进一步研究。这项研究提供了对量刑时受害者证据机制的深入了解。这项研究的结果对律师、研究人员、法官、受害者、罪犯和我们法律体系中的其他利益相关者都有影响。(PsycInfo数据库记录(c) 2023 APA,版权所有)。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamic risk and differential impacts of probation: Examining age, race, and gender as responsivity factors. 动态风险和不同的缓刑影响:检查年龄,种族和性别作为反应性因素。
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 LAW Pub Date : 2023-08-01 DOI: 10.1037/lhb0000534
Ashlee R Barnes-Lee, Marva V Goodson, Nordia A Scott

Objective: Juvenile courts that apply the risk-need-responsivity (RNR) model should periodically reassess youths and observe reductions in risk. There is a gap in knowledge concerning the reliable implementation of the specific responsivity principle of the RNR model, which emphasizes considering youths' unique characteristics to support rehabilitation success. In the present study, we aimed to identify whether specific responsivity factors (i.e., age, gender, and race/ethnicity) and supervision experiences (i.e., time under supervision and participation in judicial programs) effect changes in risk scores.

Hypotheses: We anticipated that (a) time under supervision would be negatively associated with dynamic risk, (b) participation in judicial programs would be positively associated with dynamic risk, and (c) race/ethnicity (not age or gender) would moderate the relationship between supervision experiences and dynamic risk.

Method: The sample consisted of 360 youths who served probation in a midwestern court. We tested multilevel models to determine differential impacts of supervision experiences on dynamic risk across responsivity factors, controlling for initial risk scores and offense seriousness.

Results: Partially confirming our hypotheses, results showed that spending longer periods on probation and being referred to judicial programs were both associated with negative changes in risk scores (i.e., risk scores increased over time). There was no effect of age or gender; however, race/ethnicity predicted dynamic risk. The average change in risk score was 1.81 units lower for historically marginalized youths (b = -1.82, SE = 0.68, p = .01), and the magnitude of the effect was significantly driven by multiracial youths. As expected, race/ethnicity moderated the relationship between time on probation and changes in risk scores.

Conclusions: Findings indicate that improper application of the specific responsivity principle of the RNR model may diminish desired rehabilitation outcomes. Closing this theory-to-practice gap would improve court supervision experiences for all youths. In future studies, researchers should continue investigating specific responsivity factors and the dynamic validity of risk assessment. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

目的:应用风险-需求-反应(RNR)模型的少年法院应定期重新评估青少年并观察风险的降低。关于RNR模型的具体响应原则的可靠实施存在知识空白,该模型强调考虑青少年的独特特征以支持康复成功。在本研究中,我们旨在确定特定的反应性因素(如年龄、性别和种族/民族)和监督经历(如被监督的时间和参与司法项目)是否会影响风险评分的变化。假设:我们预计(a)监管时间与动态风险负相关,(b)参与司法项目与动态风险正相关,(c)种族/民族(不是年龄或性别)会调节监管经历与动态风险之间的关系。方法:样本包括360名在中西部法院服缓刑的青少年。在控制初始风险评分和犯罪严重程度的情况下,我们测试了多层模型来确定监管经历对动态风险的不同影响。结果:部分证实了我们的假设,结果表明,在缓刑期间花费更长的时间和被提交司法程序都与风险评分的负变化相关(即风险评分随着时间的推移而增加)。没有年龄和性别的影响;然而,种族/民族预测动态风险。历史边缘化青年的风险评分平均变化低1.81个单位(b = -1.82, SE = 0.68, p = 0.01),且多种族青年的影响程度显著提高。正如预期的那样,种族/民族调节了缓刑时间和风险分数变化之间的关系。结论:研究结果表明,RNR模型的特异反应性原则应用不当可能会降低预期的康复效果。缩小这种理论到实践的差距将改善所有青少年的法庭监督经验。在未来的研究中,研究者应继续研究具体的反应性因素和风险评估的动态效度。(PsycInfo数据库记录(c) 2023 APA,版权所有)。
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引用次数: 0
Supplemental Material for The Relationship Between Victim Impact Statements and Judicial Decision Making: An Archival Analysis of Sentencing Outcomes 受害者影响声明与司法决策之间的关系》补充材料:量刑结果档案分析
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 LAW Pub Date : 2023-06-22 DOI: 10.1037/lhb0000535.supp
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引用次数: 0
The influence of polygraphs on evaluators' decisions regarding sexually violent persons. 测谎仪对评估人员就有性暴力行为者做出决定的影响。
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 LAW Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1037/lhb0000530
Christopher T A Gillen, Alinna J Card, Jason W Smith, Gina Ambroziak, James C Mundt, Carlie Servais

Objective: This study examined the degree to which polygraph results affected evaluators' decisions regarding patients committed as sexually violent persons (SVPs) in Wisconsin. Specifically, we examined evaluators' opinions on patients' significant progress in treatment (SPT), suitability for supervised release, and suitability for discharge.

Hypotheses: We hypothesized that having failed a polygraph during the prior year would predict evaluators' opinions that patients did not meet criteria for SPT, supervised release, and discharge from civil commitment even after analyses controlled for other factors related to evaluators' decision making. Similarly, we hypothesized that patients taking and passing polygraphs in the year before the evaluations would predict positive recommendations for the aforementioned outcomes.

Method: All patients civilly committed under Wisconsin's SVP statute who had a Treatment Progress Report (TPR) and a Chapter 980.07 evaluation completed by a state-employed forensic evaluator in 2017 were eligible for this study; we selected a random sample of 158 participants. TPR and 980.07 evaluation reports were coded to reflect evaluators' opinions regarding SPT, supervised release, and/or discharge. All polygraph types and outcomes completed within the review period were coded.

Results: Results indicated that taking and passing polygraphs significantly predicted favorable evaluator opinions regarding SPT after analyses controlled for other potentially relevant factors. Polygraphs were not significantly predictive of discharge or supervised release recommendations after analyses controlled for other factors.

Conclusions: Some polygraph outcomes may affect specific evaluator opinions regarding treatment progress. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

目的:本研究调查了测谎结果在多大程度上影响了评估人员对威斯康星州性暴力犯罪(SVP)患者做出的决定。具体来说,我们研究了评估人员对患者治疗方面的重大进展(SPT)、是否适合监督释放以及是否适合出院的看法:我们假设,即使在分析控制了与评估员决策相关的其他因素后,上一年测谎失败仍会预测评估员认为患者不符合SPT、监督释放和解除民事羁留标准的意见。同样,我们假设患者在评估前一年接受并通过测谎会预测上述结果的积极建议:所有根据威斯康星州 SVP 法规被民事定罪的患者,只要在 2017 年由州政府聘用的法医评估师完成了治疗进展报告(TPR)和第 980.07 章评估,都有资格参与本研究;我们随机抽取了 158 名参与者。我们对 TPR 和 980.07 评估报告进行了编码,以反映评估员对 SPT、监督释放和/或出院的意见。对审查期内完成的所有测谎类型和结果进行了编码:结果表明,在分析控制了其他可能的相关因素后,接受并通过测谎能显著预测评估员对 SPT 的好评。在对其他因素进行控制分析后,测谎对出狱或监管释放建议的预测作用不大:结论:某些测谎结果可能会影响评估人员对治疗进展的具体看法。(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA,保留所有权利)。
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引用次数: 0
Racial/ethnic disparities of the pact in predicting recidivism and court dispositions for justice-involved youth. 契约在预测涉法青少年累犯和法庭处置方面的种族/族裔差异。
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 LAW Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1037/lhb0000533
Nan Li, Sascha Hein, Diana Quintana, Matthew Shelton, Elena L Grigorenko

Objective: Responding to the concern about racial/ethnic disparities (R/ED) in the use of risk assessment instruments (RAIs) in justice systems, previous research has overwhelmingly tested the extent to which RAI scores consistently predict recidivism across race and ethnicity (predictive bias). However, little is known about R/ED in the association between RAI measures and court dispositions (disparate application) for justice-involved youths. This study investigated predictive bias and disparate application of three risk measures-criminal history, social history, and the overall risk level-produced by the Positive Achievement Change Tool (PACT) for White, Black, and Hispanic justice-involved youths.

Hypotheses: Given the mixed evidence in existing research for predictive bias and lack of evidence for disparate application, we did not make any specific hypothesis but conducted exploratory analyses. From a clinical perspective, however, we anticipated little or no evidence to support predictive bias and disparate application of the PACT among White, Black, and Hispanic youths in the jurisdiction we examined.

Method: The sample consisted of 5,578 youths (11.4% White, 43.9% Black, and 44.7% Hispanic) who completed the PACT while in the Harris County Juvenile Probation Department, Texas. The outcome variables included recidivism (general and violent reoffending) and court dispositions (deferred adjudication, probation without placement, and probation with placement). We ran a series of moderating binary logistic regression models and moderating ordinal logistic regression models to evaluate predictive bias and disparate application.

Results: Race and ethnicity influenced how the criminal history score related to violent recidivism: This compromised the validity of the score as a predictor of recidivism. Moreover, evidence showed that the overall risk of reoffending was associated with harsher sanctioning decisions for Black and Hispanic youths than for White youths.

Conclusion: Ensuring that RAI results are consistently interpreted and used in informing decisions is as important as ensuring that RAI scores function equally well in predicting recidivism regardless of race and ethnicity. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

目的:针对司法系统在使用风险评估工具(RAIs)时存在的种族/族裔差异(R/ED)问题,以往的研究绝大多数都测试了 RAI 分数在多大程度上能够一致地预测不同种族和族裔的累犯情况(预测偏差)。然而,对于涉法青少年的风险评估指标与法庭处置(差异应用)之间的关联,人们对种族/族裔的情况知之甚少。本研究调查了白人、黑人和西班牙裔涉法青少年的犯罪史、社会史和积极成就改变工具(PACT)产生的总体风险水平这三种风险测量的预测偏差和差异应用:鉴于现有研究中关于预测偏差的证据参差不齐,且缺乏关于差异应用的证据,我们没有提出任何具体的假设,而是进行了探索性分析。不过,从临床角度来看,我们预计几乎没有证据支持在我们所研究的辖区内,白人、黑人和西班牙裔青少年中存在预测性偏差和对 PACT 的不同应用:样本包括在德克萨斯州哈里斯县青少年缓刑部完成 PACT 的 5578 名青少年(白人占 11.4%,黑人占 43.9%,西班牙裔占 44.7%)。结果变量包括累犯(一般累犯和暴力累犯)和法庭处置(延期判决、无安置缓刑和有安置缓刑)。我们运行了一系列调节性二元逻辑回归模型和调节性序数逻辑回归模型,以评估预测偏差和不同适用情况:结果:种族和民族影响了犯罪史评分与暴力再犯的关系:结果:种族和民族影响了犯罪史得分与暴力再犯的关系:这损害了犯罪史得分作为再犯预测指标的有效性。此外,有证据表明,与白人青少年相比,黑人和西班牙裔青少年的总体再犯罪风险与更严厉的处罚决定有关:结论:确保对 RAI 结果进行一致的解释并将其用于决策,与确保 RAI 分数在预测累犯方面发挥同样重要的作用,而不论其种族和族裔如何。(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA,保留所有权利)。
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引用次数: 0
Developing consensus for culturally informed forensic mental health assessment: Experts' opinions on best practices. 就有文化依据的法医心理健康评估达成共识:专家对最佳做法的意见。
IF 2.4 2区 社会学 Q1 LAW Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1037/lhb0000531
Amanda M Fanniff, Taylor York, Renee Gutierrez

Objective: Individuals with minoritized identities are overrepresented in legal system contexts; thus, forensic mental health professionals conduct evaluations of examinees with a diversity of identities. Professional and ethical guidelines direct that these evaluations be completed in a culturally informed manner, yet many professionals still identify a need for specific guidance on how to do so. In the present study, we sought to establish consensus regarding best practices in incorporating culture into forensic mental health evaluations.

Hypotheses: Given the exploratory nature of this research, no formal hypotheses were tested. We expected that participants would concur that some practices are important to completing culturally informed forensic evaluations.

Method: We recruited two samples. Nine people with joint expertise in cultural considerations and forensic evaluations participated in a Delphi-type poll. More than half reported a minoritized racial/ethnic identity, and all identified as a man (56%) or woman (44%). Experts were surveyed regarding importance (two rounds) and relevance (one round) of recommended practices. They contributed seven additional relevant practices. Twenty-one board-certified forensic psychologists completed a one-time survey of their perceptions of best practices. These psychologists primarily identified as White (90%), and most did not identify as Hispanic or Latine (80%). They all identified as men (45%) or women (55%). This sample was asked to rate the importance of a list of practices refined during the Delphi-type poll.

Results: The majority of practices were considered important or very important by experts and board-certified psychologists. Consensus is most clear for 28 practices with means, medians, and modes all in the "important" to "very important" range at all time points.

Conclusions: There is wide agreement on the importance of particular methods for incorporating cultural considerations in each phase of the forensic evaluation process. Forensic psychologists can use this information to self-evaluate and improve their practice and to inform training. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

目的:在法律系统中,具有少数群体身份的人所占比例过高;因此,法医心理健康专业人员要对具有不同身份的受检者进行评估。专业和道德准则规定,这些评估应以文化知情的方式完成,但许多专业人员仍然认为需要关于如何完成评估的具体指导。在本研究中,我们试图就将文化纳入法医心理健康评估的最佳实践达成共识:鉴于本研究的探索性质,我们没有测试正式的假设。我们预计,参与者会同意某些做法对于完成有文化背景的法医评估非常重要:我们招募了两个样本。九位在文化因素和法医评估方面具有共同专长的人士参加了德尔菲式民意调查。半数以上的人报告了自己的少数种族/民族身份,所有的人都认为自己是男性(56%)或女性(44%)。专家们就推荐做法的重要性(两轮)和相关性(一轮)接受了调查。他们提供了七种额外的相关实践。21 名经委员会认证的法医心理学家就他们对最佳实践的看法完成了一次性调查。这些心理学家的主要身份是白人(90%),大多数不认为自己是西班牙裔或拉丁裔(80%)。他们都认为自己是男性(45%)或女性(55%)。该样本被要求对德尔菲式民意调查中改进的一系列做法的重要性进行评分:结果:大多数实践被专家和委员会认证的心理学家认为重要或非常重要。有 28 项实践的平均值、中位数和模数在所有时间点均处于 "重要 "到 "非常重要 "的范围内,共识最为明显:结论:对于在法医评估过程的每个阶段纳入文化因素的特定方法的重要性存在广泛共识。法医心理学家可以利用这些信息来自我评估和改进他们的实践,并为培训提供参考。(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, 版权所有)。
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引用次数: 0
Counseling services leading to desistance by way of a change in certainty perceptions and cognitive agency beliefs. 通过改变确定性观念和认知机构信念,咨询服务可导致放弃。
IF 2.5 2区 社会学 Q1 LAW Pub Date : 2023-06-01 Epub Date: 2023-02-20 DOI: 10.1037/lhb0000525
Glenn D Walters

Objective: The purpose of this study was to determine whether receiving counseling services reduced future offending in a group of seriously delinquent youths through a process of chaining. In this process, a youth's perceived certainty of punishment and an increase in their cognitive agency or control mediated the services-offending relationship.

Hypothesis: The main hypothesis was that where perceptions of certainty preceded cognitive agency beliefs (perceived certainty → cognitive agency), the (target) pathway would be significant, and where cognitive agency beliefs preceded perceptions of certainty (cognitive agency → perceived certainty), the (comparison) pathway would be nonsignificant. The difference between the target and comparison pathways was also predicted to be significant.

Method: This study modeled change in 1,354 (1,170 boys, 184 girls) justice-involved youths from the Pathways to Desistance study. The number of counseling services accessed by a participant within 6 months of the baseline (Wave 1) interview served as the independent variable, and self-reported offending 12-18 months later (Wave 4) served as the dependent variable. Perceived certainty of punishment and cognitive agency were cross-lagged at Waves 2 and 3 and served as mediators.

Results: Consistent with the research hypothesis, results showed that the total indirect effect from services to delinquency through perceived certainty and cognitive agency was significant, the total indirect effect from services to cognitive agency to perceived certainty was nonsignificant, and the difference between the two effects was significant.

Conclusions: The results of this study suggest that turning points do not have to be major life events to bring about desistance and that chaining in which perceptions of certainty precede cognitive agency beliefs may play a vital role in the change process. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

研究目的本研究旨在确定接受咨询服务是否会通过连锁过程减少一群严重犯罪青少年未来的犯罪行为。在这一过程中,青少年对惩罚的确定性的感知以及他们认知能动性或控制力的增强在服务与犯罪之间起到了中介作用:主要假设是,如果确定性感知先于认知代理信念(确定性感知→认知代理),则(目标)路径将显著;如果认知代理信念先于确定性感知(认知代理→确定性感知),则(比较)路径将不显著。预计目标途径和比较途径之间的差异也将是显著的:本研究对 "通往脱罪之路 "研究中的 1,354 名(1,170 名男孩,184 名女孩)涉法青少年的变化进行了建模。参与者在基线(第 1 波)访谈后 6 个月内接受咨询服务的次数作为自变量,12-18 个月后(第 4 波)自我报告的犯罪情况作为因变量。感知到的惩罚确定性和认知代理在第 2 波和第 3 波交叉滞后,并作为中介变量:与研究假设一致,结果表明,通过感知到的确定性和认知代理,从服务到犯罪的总间接效应是显著的,从服务到认知代理再到感知到的确定性的总间接效应是不显著的,而这两种效应之间的差异是显著的:本研究的结果表明,转折点并不一定是人生中的重大事件才会带来戒断,在改变过程中,确定性感知先于认知代理信念的连锁反应可能起着至关重要的作用。(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, 版权所有)。
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引用次数: 0
Developing a model of guilty plea decision-making: Fuzzy-trace theory, gist, and categorical boundaries. 建立认罪决策模型:模糊轨迹理论、要旨和分类界限。
IF 2.4 2区 社会学 Q1 LAW Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1037/lhb0000532
Tina M Zottoli, Rebecca K Helm, Vanessa A Edkins, Michael T Bixter

Objectives: To date, most research on plea bargaining has used some form of the shadow of the trial (SOT) model to frame defendant decisions. In this research, we proposed and tested a new conceptual model of plea decision-making, based on fuzzy-trace theory (FTT), for the context in which a nondetained, guilty defendant chooses between a guilty plea or trial, where both the plea and potential trial sentence entail incarceration.

Hypotheses: We predicted that plea decisions would be affected by (a) meaningful, categorical changes in conviction probability (e.g., low to moderate, moderate to high), as opposed to more granular changes within categories and (b) the presence and magnitude of categorical distinctions between plea offer and potential trial sentence rather than fine-grained differences between individual offers.

Method: We conducted three vignette-based experiments (Study 1: N = 1,701, Study 2: N = 1,098, Study 3: N = 1,232), using Mechanical Turk participants. In Studies 1 and 2, we manipulated potential trial sentence and conviction probability, asking participants to indicate either the maximum plea sentence they would accept (Study 1) or whether they would plead guilty to a specific offer (Study 2). In Study 3, we manipulated plea discount and potential trial sentence and measured plea acceptance.

Results: Maximum acceptable plea sentences were similar within and different between "groupings" of meaningfully similar conviction probabilities (Study 1). Plea rates were similar within and different between groupings that comprised plea offers of similarly meaningful distance from the potential trial sentence (Study 3). The results also provide insight into the plea rates that might be expected under different combinations of the independent variables (Studies 2 and 3).

Conclusions: These results support a new conceptual model of plea decision-making that may be better suited to explaining case-level differences in plea outcomes than the SOT model and suggest that future research extending this model to a wider range of contexts would be fruitful. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

目的:迄今为止,关于认罪求情协议的大多数研究都使用某种形式的审判阴影(SOT)模型来框定被告的决策。在本研究中,我们基于模糊轨迹理论(FTT),提出并测试了一个新的认罪求情决策概念模型,该模型适用于未被拘留的有罪被告在认罪求情或审判之间做出选择的情况,在这种情况下,认罪求情和潜在的审判判决都会导致监禁:我们预测,认罪决定将受到以下因素的影响:(a)定罪概率的有意义的分类变化(如从低到中,从中度到高度),而不是分类内更细化的变化;(b)认罪提议和潜在审判判决之间的分类差异的存在和程度,而不是单个提议之间的细化差异:我们使用 Mechanical Turk 参与者进行了三项基于小插图的实验(研究 1:N = 1,701;研究 2:N = 1,098;研究 3:N = 1,232)。在研究 1 和研究 2 中,我们操纵了潜在的审判量刑和定罪概率,要求参与者指出他们愿意接受的最高认罪量刑(研究 1)或他们是否会对特定提议认罪(研究 2)。在研究 3 中,我们操纵了认罪折扣和潜在审判刑期,并测量了认罪接受度:结果:在定罪概率有意义地相似的 "组别 "内和 "组别 "之间,可接受的最大认罪量刑相似而不同(研究 1)。认罪率在认罪提议与潜在审判量刑之间具有相似意义的 "组别 "内相似,而在不同组别之间则不同(研究 3)。研究结果还揭示了在不同的自变量组合下可能出现的认罪率(研究2和研究3):这些结果支持了一种新的认罪求情决策概念模型,该模型可能比SOT模型更适合解释认罪求情结果在案件层面上的差异,并表明未来将该模型扩展到更广泛背景下的研究将是富有成效的。(PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved)。
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Law and Human Behavior
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