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Evaluating accessibility benefits and ridership of bike-transit integration through a social equity lens 从社会公平的角度评估自行车与公交一体化的无障碍优势和乘客数量
IF 7.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-07-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2024.102150
Luyu Liu , Jinhyung Lee , Harvey J. Miller

Integration of bike usage and transit services is an effective way to enhance accessibility for both transportation modes. Using high-resolution transit data, the study analyzes bike-transit multimodal accessibility and usage patterns through a social equity lens. Two types of accessibility increment are studied: bicycle increment to public transit – the benefits of using bicycle for transit riders, and transit increment to cycling – the merits of using transit for cyclists. Results show that bike-transit integration benefits both public transit riders and cyclists, expanding their accessible opportunities by up to 70% and enabling longer trips for cyclists while providing continuous benefits for public transit users. Meanwhile, better infrastructure significantly improves multimodal accessibility, resulting in more increment for public transit riders but less increment for cyclists. The paper also shows the spatiotemporal patterns of multimodal ridership. The research highlights disparities in bike-transit activities for Black communities due to inadequate local biking infrastructure. Black people majority neighborhoods enjoy less increment compared to other neighborhoods for shorter and very long trips; they also have disproportionately lower multimodal ridership despite much higher transit ridership and better transit access. Enhancing biking infrastructure in these areas can improve physical accessibility increment and promote social equity. The paper provides practical insights for transit planning, emphasizing the importance of connecting bike lanes and creating safer streets for cycling.

整合自行车使用和公交服务是提高两种交通方式可达性的有效途径。这项研究利用高分辨率的公交数据,从社会公平的角度分析了自行车-公交多式联运的可达性和使用模式。研究了两类可达性增量:自行车对公共交通的增量--公共交通乘客使用自行车的好处,以及公共交通对自行车的增量--自行车使用者使用公共交通的好处。研究结果表明,自行车与公共交通的结合既有利于公共交通乘客,也有利于骑自行车的人,可将他们的无障碍出行机会扩大多达 70%,并使骑自行车的人能够进行更长时间的出行,同时为公共交通用户带来持续的益处。同时,更好的基础设施能显著改善多式联运的可达性,从而为公共交通乘客带来更多增量,但为骑自行车者带来的增量较少。论文还展示了多式联运乘客的时空模式。研究强调,由于当地自行车基础设施不足,黑人社区的自行车交通活动存在差异。与其他社区相比,黑人占多数的社区在短途和长途旅行中享受的增量较少;尽管他们的公交乘坐率要高得多,而且交通便利,但他们的多式联运乘坐率也低得不成比例。加强这些地区的自行车基础设施建设,可以提高实际可达性增量,促进社会公平。本文为公交规划提供了实用的见解,强调了连接自行车道和为骑行创造更安全街道的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
A spatially-explicit sensitivity analysis of urban definitions: Uncovering implicit assumptions in the Degree of Urbanisation 城市定义的空间敏感性分析:揭示城市化程度中的隐含假设
IF 7.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-07-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2024.102149
Céline Van Migerode , Ate Poorthuis , Ben Derudder

We introduce a spatially-explicit sensitivity framework to uncover potential biases in urban delineation approaches. Our starting point is that there is no broadly shared agreement on how to define or delineate urban areas, neither in terms of methods nor in terms of thresholds or criteria. Deciding on delineation criteria thus inevitably involves making certain assumptions that may unwittingly reproduce urban realities experienced by those expressing them, and have spatially unequally distributed implications. Understanding how specific criterion choices shape our understanding of ‘the urban’ and how, why, and – especially – where a definition leads to specific sensitivities is therefore key, especially when the definition is utilised beyond its intended application. Our framework to uncover these sensitivities is spatially explicit in the sense that it does not rely on aggregate statistics but instead focuses on the sensitivity of the ‘urban’ classification of individual spatial units at the finest spatial granularity. Applying the framework to the definition of the Degree of Urbanisation reveals that sensitivity is indeed not equally distributed across the world. Certain regions (e.g., areas around Dallas – Fort Worth) and specific types of urbanisation (e.g., desakota regions in Pacific Asia) exhibit higher sensitivity than others. We discuss how these sensitivities may embody certain implicit assumptions in the definition, and examine their broader theoretical implications.

我们引入了一个空间明确的敏感性框架,以揭示城市划分方法中的潜在偏差。我们的出发点是,对于如何定义或划定城市区域,无论是在方法上还是在阈值或标准上,都没有达成广泛的共识。因此,在决定划分标准时,不可避免地要做出某些假设,而这些假设可能会在不知不觉中再现表达这些假设的人所经历的城市现实,并产生空间分布不均的影响。因此,了解具体的标准选择如何形成我们对 "城市 "的理解,以及定义如何、为何、尤其是如何导致特定的敏感性是关键,尤其是当定义的使用超出了其预期应用范围时。我们揭示这些敏感性的框架在空间上是明确的,因为它并不依赖于总体统计数据,而是在最细微的空间粒度上关注单个空间单位的 "城市 "分类的敏感性。将该框架应用于 "城市 "的定义,可以发现敏感性在全球的分布并不均衡。某些地区(如达拉斯沃斯堡周边地区)和特定类型的城市化(如太平洋亚洲的德萨科塔地区)比其他地区表现出更高的敏感性。我们将讨论这些敏感性如何体现定义中的某些隐含假设,并研究其更广泛的理论意义。
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引用次数: 0
The cost of climate change: A generalized cost function approach for incorporating extreme weather exposure into public transit accessibility 气候变化的成本:将极端天气风险纳入公共交通可达性的通用成本函数方法
IF 7.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-07-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2024.102145
Naser Ahmed , Jinhyung Lee , Luyu Liu , Junghwan Kim , Kee Moon Jang , Jinfei Wang

Public transit offers urban populations physical accessibility to resources and opportunities. However, at the same time, transit trips often expose users to extreme environmental conditions, such as extreme heat and cold since transit journeys usually include out-of-vehicle trip segments including walking and waiting. Such exposure can be considered as environmental health costs because exposure to weather extremes can lead to adverse health outcomes. Even worse, climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. In this context, how can we make public transit accessibility measures ready for climate change? This paper attempts to answer this question by developing a generalized cost function approach combining travel time and environmental health costs into an integrated measure of dual accessibility: a measure of the travel costs of accessing a fixed number of destinations. We synthesize transport science, environmental health, remote sensing, and urban climatology to empower the proposed framework. To demonstrate the utility of the proposed method, we carry out an example study that incorporates transit passengers' extreme cold exposure into accessibility measures in the city of Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. Further, we perform a social equity analysis to investigate whether the increase in total integrated costs (i.e., decrease in accessibility) due to the inclusion of environmental health costs disproportionately affects socially disadvantaged population groups. The proposed method enables a more realistic and practical measurement of public transit accessibility under climate change; thereby, improving the readiness and resilience of our society and transport systems for future challenges.

公共交通为城市居民提供了获取资源和机会的实际便利。但与此同时,由于公交出行通常包括步行和等候等车外出行环节,因此公交出行往往会使用户暴露在极端的环境条件下,如酷暑和严寒。这种暴露可被视为环境健康成本,因为暴露在极端天气下会导致不良的健康后果。更糟糕的是,气候变化正在增加极端天气事件的强度和频率。在这种情况下,我们如何才能使公共交通无障碍措施为气候变化做好准备?本文试图通过开发一种广义成本函数方法来回答这个问题,该方法将旅行时间和环境健康成本结合在一起,形成了一种双重可达性的综合衡量标准:一种对到达固定数量目的地的旅行成本的衡量标准。我们综合运用了交通科学、环境健康、遥感和城市气候学等学科的知识,为所提出的框架赋能。为了证明所提方法的实用性,我们在加拿大马尼托巴省温尼伯市开展了一项实例研究,将公交乘客的极寒暴露纳入可达性测量中。此外,我们还进行了社会公平分析,以调查由于纳入环境健康成本而导致的总综合成本的增加(即无障碍程度的降低)是否会对社会弱势群体造成过大的影响。所提出的方法能够更现实、更实用地衡量气候变化下的公共交通可达性,从而提高我们的社会和交通系统应对未来挑战的准备程度和复原能力。
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引用次数: 0
Jointly spatial-temporal representation learning for individual trajectories 个体轨迹的时空联合表征学习
IF 7.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-07-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2024.102144
Fei Huang , Jianrong Lv , Yang Yue

Individual trajectories, capturing significant human-environment interactions across space and time, serve as vital inputs for geospatial foundation models (GeoFMs). However, existing attempts at learning trajectory representations often encoded trajectory spatial-temporal relationships implicitly, which poses challenges in learning and representing spatiotemporal patterns accurately. Therefore, this paper proposes a joint spatial-temporal graph representation learning method (ST-GraphRL) to formalize structurally-explicit while learnable spatial-temporal dependencies into trajectory representations. The proposed ST-GraphRL consists of three compositions: (i) a weighted directed spatial-temporal graph to explicitly construct mobility interactions over space and time dimensions; (ii) a two-stage joint encoder (i.e., decoupling and fusion), to learn entangled spatial-temporal dependencies by independently decomposing and jointly aggregating features in space and time; (iii) a decoder guides ST-GraphRL to learn mobility regularities and randomness by simulating the spatial-temporal joint distributions of trajectories. Tested on three real-world human mobility datasets, the proposed ST-GraphRL outperformed all the baseline models in predicting movements' spatial-temporal distributions and preserving trajectory similarity with high spatial-temporal correlations. Furthermore, analyzing spatial-temporal features in latent space, it affirms that the ST-GraphRL can effectively capture underlying mobility patterns. The results may also provide insights into representation learnings of other geospatial data to achieve general-purpose data representations, promoting the progress of GeoFMs.

个体轨迹记录了人类与环境在空间和时间上的重要互动,是地理空间基础模型(GeoFMs)的重要输入。然而,现有的轨迹表征学习尝试往往对轨迹的时空关系进行隐式编码,这给准确学习和表征时空模式带来了挑战。因此,本文提出了一种空间-时间图联合表征学习方法(ST-GraphRL),将结构明确且可学习的空间-时间依赖关系形式化到轨迹表征中。所提出的 ST-GraphRL 由三部分组成:(i) 加权有向时空图,用于明确构建空间和时间维度上的移动性交互;(ii) 两阶段联合编码器(即解耦和融合),通过独立分解和联合聚合空间和时间特征来学习纠缠的时空依赖关系;(iii) 解码器,通过模拟轨迹的时空联合分布来引导 ST-GraphRL 学习移动性的规律性和随机性。在三个真实世界的人类移动数据集上进行测试后发现,所提出的 ST-GraphRL 在预测移动的时空分布和保持高时空相关性的轨迹相似性方面优于所有基线模型。此外,通过分析潜在空间中的时空特征,证实 ST-GraphRL 可以有效捕捉潜在的移动模式。这些结果还可以为其他地理空间数据的表示学习提供启示,从而实现通用数据表示,推动地理空间模型的发展。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring spatial complexity: Overlapping communities in South China's megaregion with big geospatial data 探索空间复杂性:利用地理空间大数据探索华南特大区域的重叠社区
IF 7.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-07-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2024.102143
Chenyu Fang , Xinyue Gu , Lin Zhou , Wei Zhang , Xing Liu , Shuhua Liu , Martin Werner

Overlapping structures, often overlooked, are crucial in shaping comprehensive urban development and broader megaregional strategies. To address the gap, this study conducts the overlapping communities analysis in the Pearl River Delta (PRD), a megaregion in South China, using big geospatial data from 2018. A novel Overlapping Community Detection based on Density Peaks (OCDDP) is employed to generate multiple communities with diverse functions for different nodes in the commuting network of 60 sub-city divisions. We identify eight overlapping communities in PRD characterized by two categories of communities predominantly centered around Shenzhen and Guangzhou, revealing a bicentric spatial structure. Notably, central sub-cities are characterized by a low-overlap attribute, while peripheral sub-cities manifest a high-overlap tendency. Furthermore, the study investigates the driving forces behind these communities through ridge regression to analyze the impacts of various spatial flows, including policies, investment amount and times, branch funding and number, travel cost, and travel distance, co-patenting, and search index. This part found that four Shenzhen-centric communities are primarily driven by travel cost, co-patenting, branch funding, and number, while the four Guangzhou-centric communities are influenced by co-patenting, investment amount, and times. This study emphasizes differentiated functional linkages and the need for precise policy positioning and resource allocation, paving the way for a coordinated and holistic approach to megaregional development.

重叠结构往往被忽视,但却对城市综合发展和更广泛的特大区域战略的形成至关重要。针对这一空白,本研究利用 2018 年的地理空间大数据,对华南特大区域珠江三角洲(PRD)进行了重叠群落分析。研究采用了一种新颖的基于密度峰的重叠群落检测(OCDDP)方法,为60个副城分区通勤网络中的不同节点生成具有不同功能的多个群落。我们在珠三角发现了 8 个重叠群落,其中两类群落主要以深圳和广州为中心,揭示了一种双中心空间结构。值得注意的是,中心次级城市具有低重叠属性,而外围次级城市则表现出高重叠倾向。此外,研究还通过山脊回归分析了各种空间流动的影响,包括政策、投资金额和次数、分支机构资金和数量、旅行成本和旅行距离、共同专利和搜索指数等,从而探究了这些群落背后的驱动力。该部分发现,以深圳为中心的四个社区主要受旅行成本、联合专利、分支机构资金和数量的驱动,而以广州为中心的四个社区则受联合专利、投资金额和时间的影响。本研究强调了差异化的功能联系以及准确的政策定位和资源配置的必要性,为大区域发展的协调性和整体性铺平了道路。
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引用次数: 0
Identifying the spatio-temporal dynamics of mega city region range and hinterland: A perspective of inter-city flows 确定特大城市区域范围和腹地的时空动态:城市间流动的视角
IF 7.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2024.102146
Haoyu Hu , Jianfa Shen , Hengyu Gu , Junwei Zhang

Mega city regions (MCRs) have emerged in many countries in the process of urbanisation. Understanding the spatio-temporal dynamics of MCRs is crucial for sustainable urban development. However, the spatial scales and boundaries of these MCRs remain poorly defined, and their temporal dynamics have received limited attention. To address these gaps, we propose a new framework and GSMA algorithm that considers inter-city flows to identify MCRs' central cities, ranges and hinterlands. By utilising comprehensive data of over 30 million inter-city flow records covering 369 cities from Amap and Tencent, calibrated with official data from the Ministry of Transport, we identify 10 MCRs and 16 central cities in China, providing a clearer understanding of the spatial ranges and core areas of MCRs. We find that MCR ranges show relative stability during routine activities and expansions during holiday periods. Compared with previous methods, the proposed framework and algorithm have two prominent advantages. First, our methodology incorporates the directional characteristics of flows into the identification of MCRs' central cities. Second, we strike a balance between enlarging regional influence and tightening the internal connections in MCR delineation. In addition, by incorporating temporal changes in inter-city flows, the study reveals the temporal dynamics of MCRs which reflects the intricate interplay between human activities and urban system dynamics.

在城市化进程中,许多国家都出现了超大城市区域(MCRs)。了解特大城市区域的时空动态对城市的可持续发展至关重要。然而,这些特大城市区域的空间尺度和边界仍然没有得到很好的界定,它们的时空动态也只得到了有限的关注。为了弥补这些不足,我们提出了一个新的框架和金沙国际娱乐网址算法,该框架和算法考虑了城市间的流动,以识别多中心城市群的中心城市、范围和腹地。通过利用 Amap 和腾讯提供的涵盖 369 个城市的 3000 多万条城市间流量记录的综合数据,并与交通运输部的官方数据进行校准,我们确定了中国的 10 个多式联运中心和 16 个中心城市,从而更清晰地了解了多式联运的空间范围和核心区域。我们发现,在日常活动期间,多式联运中心的范围相对稳定,而在节假日期间则有所扩大。与之前的方法相比,我们提出的框架和算法有两个突出优势。首先,我们的方法将人流的方向性特征纳入了多式联运中心城市的识别中。其次,在多区域中心城市的划分中,我们在扩大区域影响力和加强内部联系之间取得了平衡。此外,通过纳入城市间人流的时间变化,本研究揭示了多区域中心城市的时间动态,反映了人类活动与城市系统动态之间错综复杂的相互作用。
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引用次数: 0
Learning the rational choice perspective: A reinforcement learning approach to simulating offender behaviours in criminological agent-based models 学习理性选择观点:在犯罪学代理模型中模拟罪犯行为的强化学习方法
IF 7.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-06-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2024.102141
Sedar Olmez , Dan Birks , Alison Heppenstall , Jiaqi Ge

Over the past 15 years, environmental criminologists have explored the application of agent-based models (ABMs) of crime events and various theoretical frameworks applied to understand them. Models have supported criminological theorising and, in some cases, been applied to make predictions about the impact of interventions devised to reduce crime. However, decision-making frameworks utilised in criminological ABMs have typically been implemented through traditional techniques such as condition-action rules. While these models have provided significant insights, they neglect a crucial component of theoretical accounts of offending, the notion that offenders are learning agents whose behavioural dynamics change over time and space. In response, this article presents an ABM of residential burglary in which offender agents utilise reinforcement learning (RL) to learn behaviours. This solution enables offender agents to learn from individual-level perceptions of the environment and, given these perceptions, develop behavioural responses that benefit themselves. The model includes conceptualisations of the Routine Activity Theory (RAT), Crime Pattern Theory (CPT) and a utility function, Target Attractiveness, which acts as a behavioural mould to nudge offender agents to learn behaviours in keeping with the Rational Choice Perspective (RCP). Trained behaviours are then tested by introducing crime prevention interventions into the model and examining the reactions of offender agents. In keeping with empirical studies of offending, experimental results demonstrate that offender agents utilising RL learn to offend at targets where rewards outweigh risks and effort, offend close to home, frequently victimise high-rewarding targets, and conversely learn to avoid offending in areas associated with high levels of risk and effort.

在过去 15 年中,环境犯罪学家探索了犯罪事件代理模型(ABMs)的应用,以及用于理解犯罪事件的各种理论框架。模型为犯罪学理论研究提供了支持,在某些情况下,还被用于预测为减少犯罪而设计的干预措施的影响。不过,犯罪学人工智能模型中使用的决策框架通常是通过条件-行动规则等传统技术实现的。虽然这些模型提供了重要的见解,但它们忽略了犯罪理论中的一个重要组成部分,即罪犯是学习主体,其行为动态会随着时间和空间的变化而变化。作为回应,本文介绍了一种住宅盗窃的人工智能模型,其中罪犯代理利用强化学习(RL)来学习行为。该解决方案使罪犯代理能够从个人层面对环境的感知中学习,并根据这些感知制定对自己有利的行为对策。该模型包括常规活动理论(RAT)、犯罪模式理论(CPT)和效用函数 "目标吸引力"(Target Attractiveness)的概念。然后,通过在模型中引入犯罪预防干预措施并检查罪犯代理人的反应,对训练行为进行测试。实验结果表明,利用 RL 的罪犯代理人学会了在回报大于风险和努力的目标处犯罪、在离家近的地方犯罪、经常使高回报目标受害,并学会了避免在与高风险和高努力相关的地区犯罪,这与犯罪方面的实证研究是一致的。
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引用次数: 0
Parameterizing agent-based models using an online game 利用在线游戏为基于代理的模型设定参数
IF 7.1 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-06-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2024.102142
Niko Yiannakoulias , Michel Grignon , Tara Marshall

Agent-based models (ABMs) of human systems are often parameterized using real-world data. For some ABMs this is not possible because the reality upon which the models are based does not exist or is not generalizable from one setting to another. In this paper we implement an online decision game to parameterize an agent-based model of pedestrian and cyclist route choice decisions in a neighbourhood. Our conceptual framework is to use an experimental game to log decision-making behaviour, summarize this behaviour into a decision model, and then transfer this model to an ABM. The product of this framework is an ABM with agents informed by human decision making made within the game, rather than the real world. The results of our analysis suggest that the decision model is consistent with some general theory about decision making, but the ABM illustrates some unique and contextually specific patterns of flow. ABMs parameterized with game data may be useful for forecasting the effects of change on urban transportation infrastructure.

基于代理的人类系统模型(ABM)通常使用真实世界的数据进行参数化。对于某些 ABM 而言,这是不可能的,因为模型所基于的现实并不存在,或者无法从一个环境推广到另一个环境。在本文中,我们实施了一个在线决策游戏,对基于代理的邻里行人和骑自行车者路线选择决策模型进行参数化。我们的概念框架是利用实验游戏记录决策行为,将这些行为总结为决策模型,然后将该模型转移到人工智能模型中。这一框架的产物是一个人工智能模型,其代理信息来自游戏中的人类决策,而非现实世界。我们的分析结果表明,决策模型与一些关于决策的一般理论是一致的,但人工智能模型展示了一些独特的、与具体情况相关的流程模式。以游戏数据为参数的 ABM 可能有助于预测变化对城市交通基础设施的影响。
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引用次数: 0
UrbanClassifier: A deep learning-based model for automated typology and temporal analysis of urban fabric across multiple spatial scales and viewpoints UrbanClassifier:基于深度学习的模型,用于跨空间尺度和视角对城市结构进行自动类型学和时间分析
IF 6.8 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-06-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2024.102132
Zhou Fang , Ying Jin , Shuwen Zheng , Liang Zhao , Tianren Yang

The field of urban morphology, crucial for understanding the evolutionary trajectories of cityscapes, has traditionally depended on manual classification methods. The surge in deep learning and computer vision technologies presents an opportunity to automate and enhance urban typo-morphology studies. This research addresses three critical shortcomings in the current body of work: the neglect of urban fabric's three-dimensional qualities, the homogeneity of spatial scales in dataset creation and the dependence on a single-perspective for urban fabric classification. A novel deep learning-based model, UrbanClassifier, is introduced, trained on a substantial dataset that encapsulates the three-dimensionality of urban fabric along with morphological types and development periods. Extensive experimentation across four European cities highlights the model's ability to incorporate diverse spatial scales and viewpoints in urban fabric analysis. The UrbanClassifier exemplifies a method integrating features from various scales and perspectives, thus laying the groundwork for scalable and accessible urban typo-morphology studies, aiding practitioners in discerning the spatio-temporal evolution of urban fabric.

城市形态学对了解城市景观的演变轨迹至关重要,但该领域传统上一直依赖人工分类方法。深度学习和计算机视觉技术的迅猛发展为城市错字形态研究的自动化和增强提供了机遇。这项研究解决了当前工作中的三个关键缺陷:忽视城市肌理的三维特质、数据集创建中空间尺度的单一性以及城市肌理分类对单一视角的依赖。本文介绍了一种基于深度学习的新型模型--UrbanClassifier,该模型在大量数据集上进行了训练,囊括了城市结构的三维性、形态类型和发展时期。在四个欧洲城市进行的广泛实验突出表明,该模型能够将不同的空间尺度和视角纳入城市结构分析。UrbanClassifier 是将不同尺度和视角的特征整合在一起的方法的典范,从而为可扩展和可访问的城市错字形态研究奠定了基础,有助于从业人员辨别城市结构的时空演变。
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引用次数: 0
How can SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) interpretations improve deep learning based urban cellular automata model? SHAP(SHapley Additive exPlanations)解释如何改进基于深度学习的城市蜂窝自动机模型?
IF 6.8 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES Pub Date : 2024-05-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2024.102133
Changlan Yang , Xuefeng Guan , Qingyang Xu , Weiran Xing , Xiaoyu Chen , Jinguo Chen , Peng Jia

Interpretations of the urban cellular automata (CA) model aim to ensure that its predictive behaviors are consistent with real-world processes. Current urban CA interpretations have revealed the impacts of driving factors on land development suitability, or neighborhood effects and random perturbation on simulation results. However, three limitations remain unresolved: (1) the interpretations of deep learning (DL)-based urban CA are seldom integrated with the prerequired feature selection, (2) the input features from different urban CA modules are still explained by separate approaches, and (3) the interpretation results are rarely derived at the cell level to uncover spatially varying urban land development patterns. This study proposes a SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP)-based urban CA interpretation framework to address these challenges and improve urban CA. This framework uses model-level SHAP importance to identify dominant features from different modules for constructing the final simulation model. Then, cell-level SHAP importance is used to uncover spatially varying driving forces of urban expansion. The framework's effectiveness is rigorously tested and confirmed using a convolution neural network CA (CNN-CA) model for Dongguan City. The experimental results demonstrate that (1) SHAP-based model interpretation improves feature selection for DL-based urban CA. The figure of merit for CNN-CA calibrated using SHAP-based important features improves by 3%, outperforming the tested baseline methods. (2) SHAP measures the impacts of each feature from different CA modules in a whole. In this case, physical factors are much more important at the model level than proximity and accessibility factors, while neighborhood effect is the second most crucial factor. (3) Cell-level SHAP interpretations uncover spatially different urban land development patterns. For example, due to the extensive industrial land development in the northern Songshan Lake Zone, in the CNN-CA model, proximity to major roads within this region is associated with positive SHAP-based contribution share on cell-level urban expansion.

对城市细胞自动机(CA)模型的解释旨在确保其预测行为与现实世界的过程相一致。当前的城市细胞自动机模型解释揭示了驱动因素对土地开发适宜性的影响,或邻里效应和随机扰动对模拟结果的影响。然而,有三个局限性问题仍未得到解决:(1)基于深度学习(DL)的城市核算分析的解释很少与预设的特征选择相结合;(2)来自不同城市核算分析模块的输入特征仍由不同的方法解释;(3)解释结果很少在单元水平上得出,以揭示空间变化的城市土地开发模式。本研究提出了基于 SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)的城市气候变化解释框架,以应对这些挑战并改进城市气候变化。该框架使用模型级 SHAP 重要性来识别不同模块的主要特征,从而构建最终的模拟模型。然后,利用单元级 SHAP 重要性揭示城市扩张的空间驱动力。使用东莞市的卷积神经网络 CA(CNN-CA)模型对该框架的有效性进行了严格测试和确认。实验结果表明:(1) 基于 SHAP 的模型解释改进了基于 DL 的城市 CA 的特征选择。使用基于 SHAP 的重要特征校准的 CNN-CA 的优越性提高了 3%,优于测试的基线方法。(2) SHAP 从整体上衡量不同 CA 模块中每个特征的影响。在这种情况下,物理因素在模型层面的重要性远远高于邻近性和可达性因素,而邻里效应则是第二重要的因素。(3) 单元层面的 SHAP 解释揭示了空间上不同的城市土地开发模式。例如,在 CNN-CA 模型中,由于松山湖北部地区的工业用地开发规模较大,靠近该区域内的主要道路与基于 SHAP 的单元级城市扩张贡献份额正相关。
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Computers Environment and Urban Systems
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