Pub Date : 2023-09-05DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.17
Peter Fallesen, Marco Cozzani
BACKGROUND Following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic a host of countries saw drastic fertility declines, followed by a variety of fertility patterns. It remains unclear whether these initial baby busts have been recuperated, and, if so, whether the recuperation occurred homogenously across maternal age groups and parity categories. OBJECTIVE We assess period fertility recuperation as the cumulative difference between observed fertility trends and a predicted counterfactual trend simulating fertility patterns without the pandemic. We focus on Spain, the European country that suffered the most severe fertility decline during the pandemic.
{"title":"Partial fertility recuperation in Spain two years after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic","authors":"Peter Fallesen, Marco Cozzani","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.17","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.17","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND Following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic a host of countries saw drastic fertility declines, followed by a variety of fertility patterns. It remains unclear whether these initial baby busts have been recuperated, and, if so, whether the recuperation occurred homogenously across maternal age groups and parity categories. OBJECTIVE We assess period fertility recuperation as the cumulative difference between observed fertility trends and a predicted counterfactual trend simulating fertility patterns without the pandemic. We focus on Spain, the European country that suffered the most severe fertility decline during the pandemic.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48423528","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-01DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.16
Ryohei Mogi, James M. Raymo, M. Iwasawa, Shohei Yoda
BACKGROUND Growth in cohabiting unions and non-marital childbearing sits at the core of research on the second demographic transition and related discussions of family bifurcation and children’s diverging destinies. OBJECTIVE How should we think about these two highly influential and purportedly universal depictions of family change in low-fertility countries where the link between marriage and childbearing remains strong? Using data from large national surveys in Japan, we address this question by describing growing heterogeneity in pathways to first marriage, with a focus on the temporal ordering of cohabitation, pregnancy, engagement, initiation of living together as married, and registration of marriage.
{"title":"An alternative version of the second demographic transition? Changing pathways to first marriage in Japan","authors":"Ryohei Mogi, James M. Raymo, M. Iwasawa, Shohei Yoda","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.16","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.16","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND Growth in cohabiting unions and non-marital childbearing sits at the core of research on the second demographic transition and related discussions of family bifurcation and children’s diverging destinies. OBJECTIVE How should we think about these two highly influential and purportedly universal depictions of family change in low-fertility countries where the link between marriage and childbearing remains strong? Using data from large national surveys in Japan, we address this question by describing growing heterogeneity in pathways to first marriage, with a focus on the temporal ordering of cohabitation, pregnancy, engagement, initiation of living together as married, and registration of marriage.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70326228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-31DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.15
Ann Garbett, Sara Neal, Angela Luna Hernandez, N. Tzavidis
BACKGROUND In 2015 Mexico set a goal to halve its adolescent fertility rate and eliminate childbearing among girls 14 years and younger, but the ambitious goal is severely off track. National estimates show stagnation, and while implementation is targeted at the municipal level, little is known about adolescent fertility in Mexican municipalities. OBJECTIVE This study estimates trends in subnational parity-specific fertility from 1990 to 2020 at all adolescent ages in 2,469 Mexican municipalities. Importantly, the estimates include the fertility of younger adolescents, and parity progression ratios offer a more accurate picture of the true risk of repeat adolescent childbearing.
{"title":"Adolescence in flux: Unmasking 30 years of change in subnational parity-specific adolescent fertility in Mexico","authors":"Ann Garbett, Sara Neal, Angela Luna Hernandez, N. Tzavidis","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.15","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.15","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND In 2015 Mexico set a goal to halve its adolescent fertility rate and eliminate childbearing among girls 14 years and younger, but the ambitious goal is severely off track. National estimates show stagnation, and while implementation is targeted at the municipal level, little is known about adolescent fertility in Mexican municipalities. OBJECTIVE This study estimates trends in subnational parity-specific fertility from 1990 to 2020 at all adolescent ages in 2,469 Mexican municipalities. Importantly, the estimates include the fertility of younger adolescents, and parity progression ratios offer a more accurate picture of the true risk of repeat adolescent childbearing.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43539578","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-23DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.14
Chaoyang Yuan, Dong Zhang
BACKGROUND Family, schooling, and culture influence attitudes towards gender roles, which life experiences further reinforce. Cross-regional migration is an important life experience that can reshape gender role attitudes. However, little is known about how host-city cultures influence migrant workers’ gender role attitudes and the influencing mechanisms.
{"title":"Moving towards gender equality in China: The influence of migration experiences on rural migrants’ gender role attitudes","authors":"Chaoyang Yuan, Dong Zhang","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.14","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.14","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND Family, schooling, and culture influence attitudes towards gender roles, which life experiences further reinforce. Cross-regional migration is an important life experience that can reshape gender role attitudes. However, little is known about how host-city cultures influence migrant workers’ gender role attitudes and the influencing mechanisms.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45443060","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-22DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.13
H. Caswell
BACKGROUND Individual lifespans differ. Some of those differences are due to heterogeneity, some to stochasticity. Some of the heterogeneity is due to socioeconomic, physiological, or environmental differences; some to unobserved latent factors. All of these are, from time to time, called inequality. OBJECTIVE This paper aims to clarify the relations between heterogeneity, stochasticity, inequality of opportunity, and inequality of outcome in a wider context than has yet been attempted.
{"title":"The contributions of stochastic demography and social inequality to lifespan variability","authors":"H. Caswell","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.13","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.13","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND Individual lifespans differ. Some of those differences are due to heterogeneity, some to stochasticity. Some of the heterogeneity is due to socioeconomic, physiological, or environmental differences; some to unobserved latent factors. All of these are, from time to time, called inequality. OBJECTIVE This paper aims to clarify the relations between heterogeneity, stochasticity, inequality of opportunity, and inequality of outcome in a wider context than has yet been attempted.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"70326168","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
BACKGROUND Existing studies investigating children’s living arrangements after parental separation and geographic distance to the nonresident parent focus primarily on the situation shortly after separation. Little is known about how children’s residence with and distance to parents evolve with time elapsed since separation. OBJECTIVE We investigate for the first 10 years following parental separation with which parent the child lives and how far the child lives from the nonresident parent for Belgian children whose parents separated in their early childhood (0 to 6 years).
{"title":"Stability in children’s residential arrangements and distance to nonresident parents in the 10 years after parental separation","authors":"Zuzana Űilinčíková, Gabriela Caceres Ojeda Freitas, Christine Schnor","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.12","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND Existing studies investigating children’s living arrangements after parental separation and geographic distance to the nonresident parent focus primarily on the situation shortly after separation. Little is known about how children’s residence with and distance to parents evolve with time elapsed since separation. OBJECTIVE We investigate for the first 10 years following parental separation with which parent the child lives and how far the child lives from the nonresident parent for Belgian children whose parents separated in their early childhood (0 to 6 years).","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-08-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41944717","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-17DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.11
A. Menashe-Oren, P. Bocquier, Carren Ginsburg, Yacouba Compaoré, M. Collinson
BACKGROUND Children are born and grow up in households, where they receive essential care, including time, socio-psychological support, and economic resources. Children’s immediate environment, captured by household structure, changes over time. OBJECTIVE We evaluate the role of dynamic household structure in the risk of child death in southern and eastern Africa. METHODS We use longitudinal data from 15 Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems between 1990 and 2016, covering almost 282,000 under-5 year olds. We analyse under-5 mortality using semi-parametric Cox models accounting for time-varying household structure (household size and household typology) and controlling for maternal characteristics.
{"title":"The dynamic role of household structure on under-5 mortality in southern and eastern sub-Saharan Africa","authors":"A. Menashe-Oren, P. Bocquier, Carren Ginsburg, Yacouba Compaoré, M. Collinson","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.11","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.11","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND Children are born and grow up in households, where they receive essential care, including time, socio-psychological support, and economic resources. Children’s immediate environment, captured by household structure, changes over time. OBJECTIVE We evaluate the role of dynamic household structure in the risk of child death in southern and eastern Africa. METHODS We use longitudinal data from 15 Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems between 1990 and 2016, covering almost 282,000 under-5 year olds. We analyse under-5 mortality using semi-parametric Cox models accounting for time-varying household structure (household size and household typology) and controlling for maternal characteristics.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-08-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46886217","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-16DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.10
N. Maduekwe, O. Banjo, Mike O. Sangodapo, Aisha Abdulazeez
BACKGROUND Multidimensional issues confront the use of standard verbal autopsies (SVAs), such as the WHO’s verbal autopsy standards and the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium’s gold standard verbal autopsy, to improve the mortality data performance of civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs).
{"title":"Use of standard verbal autopsies to improve the mortality data capacity of civil registration and vital statistics systems in low- and middle-income countries: Analysis of key issues","authors":"N. Maduekwe, O. Banjo, Mike O. Sangodapo, Aisha Abdulazeez","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.10","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.10","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND Multidimensional issues confront the use of standard verbal autopsies (SVAs), such as the WHO’s verbal autopsy standards and the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium’s gold standard verbal autopsy, to improve the mortality data performance of civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs).","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47805829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-15DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.9
Marco Cozzani, S. Minardi, Giulia Corti, Nicola Barban
BACKGROUND Research has shown that the circumstances surrounding birth may influence the timing of death. In the northern hemisphere, children born in spring and summer have a shorter lifespan than those born in fall and winter. OBJECTIVE We describe the effect of month of birth on adult lifespan (50+) in the United States in three ways. First, we estimate it between and within groups of siblings, accounting for unobserved factors at the family level. Second, we estimate the effect of birth month across a period of about 200 years (1700 ‒ 1899). Third, we examine geographical variation in the effect of birth month across US census areas.
{"title":"Birth month and adult lifespan: A within-family, cohort, and spatial examination using FamiLinx data in the United States (1700–1899)","authors":"Marco Cozzani, S. Minardi, Giulia Corti, Nicola Barban","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.9","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND Research has shown that the circumstances surrounding birth may influence the timing of death. In the northern hemisphere, children born in spring and summer have a shorter lifespan than those born in fall and winter. OBJECTIVE We describe the effect of month of birth on adult lifespan (50+) in the United States in three ways. First, we estimate it between and within groups of siblings, accounting for unobserved factors at the family level. Second, we estimate the effect of birth month across a period of about 200 years (1700 ‒ 1899). Third, we examine geographical variation in the effect of birth month across US census areas.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47521720","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-09DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.8
Sarah R. Brauner-Otto, Chih-lan Winnie Yang, Ka-U Ng
BACKGROUND Across the globe, employment for pay outside the home plays a key role in the lives of women, and increasing the proportion of women involved in high-quality jobs is a critical component of reaching several sustainable development goals. While existing research from high-income societies demonstrates that women’s employment is not constant over the life course, relatively less is known about women’s employment trajectories in low-income countries. OBJECTIVE We examine employment trajectories among women in rural Nepal, accounting for job type, employment intensity, and earnings.
{"title":"Women’s employment trajectories in a low-income setting: Stratification and change in Nepal","authors":"Sarah R. Brauner-Otto, Chih-lan Winnie Yang, Ka-U Ng","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.8","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND Across the globe, employment for pay outside the home plays a key role in the lives of women, and increasing the proportion of women involved in high-quality jobs is a critical component of reaching several sustainable development goals. While existing research from high-income societies demonstrates that women’s employment is not constant over the life course, relatively less is known about women’s employment trajectories in low-income countries. OBJECTIVE We examine employment trajectories among women in rural Nepal, accounting for job type, employment intensity, and earnings.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48168434","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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