Pub Date : 2023-12-07DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.37
Robert Schoen
OBJECTIVE Few methods are available for analyzing populations with changing rates. Here hyperstable models are presented and substantially extended to facilitate such analyses. METHODS Hyperstable models, where a known birth trajectory yields a consistent set of age-specific birth rates, are set out in both discrete and continuous form. Mathematical analysis is used to find new relationships between model functions for a range of birth trajectories. RESULTS Hyperstable population projection matrices can create bridges that project any given initial population to any given ending population. New, explicit relationships are found between period and cohort births for exponential, polynomial, and sinusoidal birth trajectories. In quadratic and cubic models, the number of cohort births equals the number of period births a generation later, with a modest adjustment. In sinusoidal models, cohort births equal the number of period births a generation later, modified by a factor related to cycle length.
{"title":"Analyzing hyperstable population models","authors":"Robert Schoen","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.37","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.37","url":null,"abstract":"OBJECTIVE Few methods are available for analyzing populations with changing rates. Here hyperstable models are presented and substantially extended to facilitate such analyses. METHODS Hyperstable models, where a known birth trajectory yields a consistent set of age-specific birth rates, are set out in both discrete and continuous form. Mathematical analysis is used to find new relationships between model functions for a range of birth trajectories. RESULTS Hyperstable population projection matrices can create bridges that project any given initial population to any given ending population. New, explicit relationships are found between period and cohort births for exponential, polynomial, and sinusoidal birth trajectories. In quadratic and cubic models, the number of cohort births equals the number of period births a generation later, with a modest adjustment. In sinusoidal models, cohort births equal the number of period births a generation later, modified by a factor related to cycle length.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"40 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138593545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
BACKGROUND Following the rapid increase of asylum seekers arriving in the European Union in 2015/16, policymakers have invested heavily in improving their foresight and forecasting capabilities. A common method to elicit expert predictions are Delphi surveys. This approach has attracted concern in the literature, given the high uncertainty in experts’ predictions. However, there exists limited guidance on specific design choices for future-related Delphi surveys. OBJECTIVE We test whether or not small adjustments to the Delphi survey can increase certainty (i.e., reduce variation) in expert predictions on immigration to the EU in 2030.
{"title":"Reducing uncertainty in Delphi surveys: A case study on immigration to the EU","authors":"Rhea Ravenna Sohst, Eduardo Acostamadiedo, Jasper Tjaden","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.36","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.36","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND Following the rapid increase of asylum seekers arriving in the European Union in 2015/16, policymakers have invested heavily in improving their foresight and forecasting capabilities. A common method to elicit expert predictions are Delphi surveys. This approach has attracted concern in the literature, given the high uncertainty in experts’ predictions. However, there exists limited guidance on specific design choices for future-related Delphi surveys. OBJECTIVE We test whether or not small adjustments to the Delphi survey can increase certainty (i.e., reduce variation) in expert predictions on immigration to the EU in 2030.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"89 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138595957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-01DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.35
A. Recio Alcaide, César Pérez López, Francisco Bolúmar Montrull
BACKGROUND Changes in birth seasonality patterns have been documented in several countries, whether long-lasting or temporary. In Spain, a decline in and absence of birth seasonality was reported in 1941–2000. This study extends the analysis to the full period of available monthly data, exploring changes in birth seasonality in Spain, its connection to social/health phenomena, and its related effects.
{"title":"Changes in birth seasonality in Spain: Data from 1863–1870 and 1900–2021","authors":"A. Recio Alcaide, César Pérez López, Francisco Bolúmar Montrull","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.35","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.35","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND Changes in birth seasonality patterns have been documented in several countries, whether long-lasting or temporary. In Spain, a decline in and absence of birth seasonality was reported in 1941–2000. This study extends the analysis to the full period of available monthly data, exploring changes in birth seasonality in Spain, its connection to social/health phenomena, and its related effects.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"16 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138626375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-28DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.34
Angela Greulich, Laurent Toulemon
Measures of fertility by level of female education are currently only available for cohorts who have already completed childbearing age. In this article, we provide more timely measures of the educational gradient of fertility for Europe. To measure period fertility by education for the whole set of European countries, we mobilize data from the European Union’s Survey of Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC). A semi-retrospective approach serves to observe parity-specific fertility behavior of cohorts that are currently at childbearing age, while at the same time recording the educational level correctly. Bayesian statistics allow obtaining credible intervals for the age, education-and parity specific birth probabilities for each country. These birth probabilities are then combined into a multi-state life table to obtain parity-specific and total birth intensities by education. A post-stratification of birth probabilities leads us to be consistent with national fertility estimates. We reveal if there are significant differences between education groups in fertility within each European country, in how far these differentials vary between European countries and if heterogeneity in period fertility behavior is larger among the higher or the lower educated across Europe. We also show for which parity the heterogeneity between education groups is the largest. This study is based on data from Eurostat, EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions [2011,2012,2013]. The responsibility for all conclusions drawn from the data lies entirely with the authors.
{"title":"Measuring the educational gradient of period fertility in 28 European countries: A new approach based on parity-specific fertility estimates","authors":"Angela Greulich, Laurent Toulemon","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.34","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.34","url":null,"abstract":"Measures of fertility by level of female education are currently only available for cohorts who have already completed childbearing age. In this article, we provide more timely measures of the educational gradient of fertility for Europe. To measure period fertility by education for the whole set of European countries, we mobilize data from the European Union’s Survey of Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC). A semi-retrospective approach serves to observe parity-specific fertility behavior of cohorts that are currently at childbearing age, while at the same time recording the educational level correctly. Bayesian statistics allow obtaining credible intervals for the age, education-and parity specific birth probabilities for each country. These birth probabilities are then combined into a multi-state life table to obtain parity-specific and total birth intensities by education. A post-stratification of birth probabilities leads us to be consistent with national fertility estimates. We reveal if there are significant differences between education groups in fertility within each European country, in how far these differentials vary between European countries and if heterogeneity in period fertility behavior is larger among the higher or the lower educated across Europe. We also show for which parity the heterogeneity between education groups is the largest. This study is based on data from Eurostat, EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions [2011,2012,2013]. The responsibility for all conclusions drawn from the data lies entirely with the authors.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139223066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-16DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.33
Michael Lachanski
Abstract
摘要
{"title":"Point estimation of certain measures in organizational demography using variable-r methods","authors":"Michael Lachanski","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.33","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.33","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139270345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-15DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.32
Seulki Choi, Da eun Kwan Kwan, Bongoh Kye
BACKGROUND The COVID-19 pandemic has had a notable impact on marriage and fertility intentions. Existing research has found that the impact of the pandemic on childbearing intentions and outcomes has varied across countries. Yet it remains unclear what the post-COVID-19 fertility rate would be if the changes in childbearing intentions observed during the pandemic translated into corresponding behavioral changes.
{"title":"The COVID-19 pandemic and fertility responses: TFR simulation analysis using parity progressions in South Korea","authors":"Seulki Choi, Da eun Kwan Kwan, Bongoh Kye","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.32","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.32","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND The COVID-19 pandemic has had a notable impact on marriage and fertility intentions. Existing research has found that the impact of the pandemic on childbearing intentions and outcomes has varied across countries. Yet it remains unclear what the post-COVID-19 fertility rate would be if the changes in childbearing intentions observed during the pandemic translated into corresponding behavioral changes.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"3 7","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136228307","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-10DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.31
Afua Durowaa-Boateng, Dilek Yildiz, Anne Goujon
Consistent and reliable time series of education-and age-specific fertility rates for the past are difficult to obtain in developing coun tries, although they are needed to evaluate the impact of women’s education on fertility along periods and cohorts. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian framework to reconstruct age-specific fertility rates by level of education using prior information from the birth history module of the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and the UN World Population Prospects. In our case study regions, we reconstruct age-and education-specific fertility rates which are consistent with the UN age specific fertility rates by four levels of education for 50 African and Latin American countries from 1970 to 2020 in five-year steps. Our results show that the Bayesian approach allows for estimating reliable education-and age-specific fertility rates using multiple rounds of the DHS surveys. The time series obtained confirm the main findings of the literature on fertility trends, and age and education specific differentials.
{"title":"A Bayesian model for the reconstruction of education- and age-specific fertility rates: An application to African and Latin American countries","authors":"Afua Durowaa-Boateng, Dilek Yildiz, Anne Goujon","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.31","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.31","url":null,"abstract":"Consistent and reliable time series of education-and age-specific fertility rates for the past are difficult to obtain in developing coun tries, although they are needed to evaluate the impact of women’s education on fertility along periods and cohorts. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian framework to reconstruct age-specific fertility rates by level of education using prior information from the birth history module of the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and the UN World Population Prospects. In our case study regions, we reconstruct age-and education-specific fertility rates which are consistent with the UN age specific fertility rates by four levels of education for 50 African and Latin American countries from 1970 to 2020 in five-year steps. Our results show that the Bayesian approach allows for estimating reliable education-and age-specific fertility rates using multiple rounds of the DHS surveys. The time series obtained confirm the main findings of the literature on fertility trends, and age and education specific differentials.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"60 20","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135091926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-09DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.30
Eva Bernhardt, Frances Goldscheider, Malgorzata Switek
OBJECTIVES This paper examines how family-building transitions (union formation and first birth) affect the attitudes of Swedes toward work and parenthood. The literature finds that these life course transitions have a traditionalizing effect on gender roles. Is this also the case in Sweden, one of the most gender-equal countries in the world? METHODS Our study uses the longitudinal Young Adult Panel Study database. We run first-difference OLS regressions on the relationship between family-building transitions and work and parenthood attitudes, distinguishing men from women, and those with more education from those with less.
{"title":"Attitudes toward work and parenthood following family-building transitions in Sweden: Identifying differences by gender and education","authors":"Eva Bernhardt, Frances Goldscheider, Malgorzata Switek","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.30","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.30","url":null,"abstract":"OBJECTIVES This paper examines how family-building transitions (union formation and first birth) affect the attitudes of Swedes toward work and parenthood. The literature finds that these life course transitions have a traditionalizing effect on gender roles. Is this also the case in Sweden, one of the most gender-equal countries in the world? METHODS Our study uses the longitudinal Young Adult Panel Study database. We run first-difference OLS regressions on the relationship between family-building transitions and work and parenthood attitudes, distinguishing men from women, and those with more education from those with less.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":" 24","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135192396","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-08DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.29
Lyman Stone
BACKGROUND Amid low fertility rates in the industrialized world, some subpopulations have maintained high fertility rates. However, it has often been difficult to study these populations due to limitations in extant data sources. OBJECTIVE This paper will demonstrate a method of measuring key demographic indicators for Ultra-Orthodox Jews using demographic and language variables in the American Community Survey (ACS).
{"title":"Ultra-Orthodox fertility and marriage in the United States: Evidence from the American Community Survey","authors":"Lyman Stone","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.29","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.29","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND Amid low fertility rates in the industrialized world, some subpopulations have maintained high fertility rates. However, it has often been difficult to study these populations due to limitations in extant data sources. OBJECTIVE This paper will demonstrate a method of measuring key demographic indicators for Ultra-Orthodox Jews using demographic and language variables in the American Community Survey (ACS).","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":" 49","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135340730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-02DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.28
Edward Telles, Albert Esteve, Andres Castro
BACKGROUND Intermarriage is a leading indicator of racialized relations. Scholarly literature has focused on the United States and shows that black–white intermarriage is especially low within that country. Surprisingly, there are no studies that compare black–white intermarriage across a broad range of countries around the world. OBJECTIVE How does black–white intermarriage compare in Brazil, Cuba, France, South Africa, the United States, and the United Kingdom circa 2010?
{"title":"Black–white intermarriage in global perspective","authors":"Edward Telles, Albert Esteve, Andres Castro","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.28","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.28","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND Intermarriage is a leading indicator of racialized relations. Scholarly literature has focused on the United States and shows that black–white intermarriage is especially low within that country. Surprisingly, there are no studies that compare black–white intermarriage across a broad range of countries around the world. OBJECTIVE How does black–white intermarriage compare in Brazil, Cuba, France, South Africa, the United States, and the United Kingdom circa 2010?","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"22 6","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135875174","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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