Pub Date : 2023-11-28DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.34
Angela Greulich, Laurent Toulemon
Measures of fertility by level of female education are currently only available for cohorts who have already completed childbearing age. In this article, we provide more timely measures of the educational gradient of fertility for Europe. To measure period fertility by education for the whole set of European countries, we mobilize data from the European Union’s Survey of Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC). A semi-retrospective approach serves to observe parity-specific fertility behavior of cohorts that are currently at childbearing age, while at the same time recording the educational level correctly. Bayesian statistics allow obtaining credible intervals for the age, education-and parity specific birth probabilities for each country. These birth probabilities are then combined into a multi-state life table to obtain parity-specific and total birth intensities by education. A post-stratification of birth probabilities leads us to be consistent with national fertility estimates. We reveal if there are significant differences between education groups in fertility within each European country, in how far these differentials vary between European countries and if heterogeneity in period fertility behavior is larger among the higher or the lower educated across Europe. We also show for which parity the heterogeneity between education groups is the largest. This study is based on data from Eurostat, EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions [2011,2012,2013]. The responsibility for all conclusions drawn from the data lies entirely with the authors.
{"title":"Measuring the educational gradient of period fertility in 28 European countries: A new approach based on parity-specific fertility estimates","authors":"Angela Greulich, Laurent Toulemon","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.34","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.34","url":null,"abstract":"Measures of fertility by level of female education are currently only available for cohorts who have already completed childbearing age. In this article, we provide more timely measures of the educational gradient of fertility for Europe. To measure period fertility by education for the whole set of European countries, we mobilize data from the European Union’s Survey of Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC). A semi-retrospective approach serves to observe parity-specific fertility behavior of cohorts that are currently at childbearing age, while at the same time recording the educational level correctly. Bayesian statistics allow obtaining credible intervals for the age, education-and parity specific birth probabilities for each country. These birth probabilities are then combined into a multi-state life table to obtain parity-specific and total birth intensities by education. A post-stratification of birth probabilities leads us to be consistent with national fertility estimates. We reveal if there are significant differences between education groups in fertility within each European country, in how far these differentials vary between European countries and if heterogeneity in period fertility behavior is larger among the higher or the lower educated across Europe. We also show for which parity the heterogeneity between education groups is the largest. This study is based on data from Eurostat, EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions [2011,2012,2013]. The responsibility for all conclusions drawn from the data lies entirely with the authors.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-11-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139223066","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-16DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.33
Michael Lachanski
Abstract
摘要
{"title":"Point estimation of certain measures in organizational demography using variable-r methods","authors":"Michael Lachanski","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.33","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.33","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"12 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139270345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-15DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.32
Seulki Choi, Da eun Kwan Kwan, Bongoh Kye
BACKGROUND The COVID-19 pandemic has had a notable impact on marriage and fertility intentions. Existing research has found that the impact of the pandemic on childbearing intentions and outcomes has varied across countries. Yet it remains unclear what the post-COVID-19 fertility rate would be if the changes in childbearing intentions observed during the pandemic translated into corresponding behavioral changes.
{"title":"The COVID-19 pandemic and fertility responses: TFR simulation analysis using parity progressions in South Korea","authors":"Seulki Choi, Da eun Kwan Kwan, Bongoh Kye","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.32","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.32","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND The COVID-19 pandemic has had a notable impact on marriage and fertility intentions. Existing research has found that the impact of the pandemic on childbearing intentions and outcomes has varied across countries. Yet it remains unclear what the post-COVID-19 fertility rate would be if the changes in childbearing intentions observed during the pandemic translated into corresponding behavioral changes.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"3 7","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136228307","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-10DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.31
Afua Durowaa-Boateng, Dilek Yildiz, Anne Goujon
Consistent and reliable time series of education-and age-specific fertility rates for the past are difficult to obtain in developing coun tries, although they are needed to evaluate the impact of women’s education on fertility along periods and cohorts. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian framework to reconstruct age-specific fertility rates by level of education using prior information from the birth history module of the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and the UN World Population Prospects. In our case study regions, we reconstruct age-and education-specific fertility rates which are consistent with the UN age specific fertility rates by four levels of education for 50 African and Latin American countries from 1970 to 2020 in five-year steps. Our results show that the Bayesian approach allows for estimating reliable education-and age-specific fertility rates using multiple rounds of the DHS surveys. The time series obtained confirm the main findings of the literature on fertility trends, and age and education specific differentials.
{"title":"A Bayesian model for the reconstruction of education- and age-specific fertility rates: An application to African and Latin American countries","authors":"Afua Durowaa-Boateng, Dilek Yildiz, Anne Goujon","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.31","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.31","url":null,"abstract":"Consistent and reliable time series of education-and age-specific fertility rates for the past are difficult to obtain in developing coun tries, although they are needed to evaluate the impact of women’s education on fertility along periods and cohorts. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian framework to reconstruct age-specific fertility rates by level of education using prior information from the birth history module of the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and the UN World Population Prospects. In our case study regions, we reconstruct age-and education-specific fertility rates which are consistent with the UN age specific fertility rates by four levels of education for 50 African and Latin American countries from 1970 to 2020 in five-year steps. Our results show that the Bayesian approach allows for estimating reliable education-and age-specific fertility rates using multiple rounds of the DHS surveys. The time series obtained confirm the main findings of the literature on fertility trends, and age and education specific differentials.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"60 20","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135091926","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-09DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.30
Eva Bernhardt, Frances Goldscheider, Malgorzata Switek
OBJECTIVES This paper examines how family-building transitions (union formation and first birth) affect the attitudes of Swedes toward work and parenthood. The literature finds that these life course transitions have a traditionalizing effect on gender roles. Is this also the case in Sweden, one of the most gender-equal countries in the world? METHODS Our study uses the longitudinal Young Adult Panel Study database. We run first-difference OLS regressions on the relationship between family-building transitions and work and parenthood attitudes, distinguishing men from women, and those with more education from those with less.
{"title":"Attitudes toward work and parenthood following family-building transitions in Sweden: Identifying differences by gender and education","authors":"Eva Bernhardt, Frances Goldscheider, Malgorzata Switek","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.30","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.30","url":null,"abstract":"OBJECTIVES This paper examines how family-building transitions (union formation and first birth) affect the attitudes of Swedes toward work and parenthood. The literature finds that these life course transitions have a traditionalizing effect on gender roles. Is this also the case in Sweden, one of the most gender-equal countries in the world? METHODS Our study uses the longitudinal Young Adult Panel Study database. We run first-difference OLS regressions on the relationship between family-building transitions and work and parenthood attitudes, distinguishing men from women, and those with more education from those with less.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":" 24","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135192396","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-08DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.29
Lyman Stone
BACKGROUND Amid low fertility rates in the industrialized world, some subpopulations have maintained high fertility rates. However, it has often been difficult to study these populations due to limitations in extant data sources. OBJECTIVE This paper will demonstrate a method of measuring key demographic indicators for Ultra-Orthodox Jews using demographic and language variables in the American Community Survey (ACS).
{"title":"Ultra-Orthodox fertility and marriage in the United States: Evidence from the American Community Survey","authors":"Lyman Stone","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.29","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.29","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND Amid low fertility rates in the industrialized world, some subpopulations have maintained high fertility rates. However, it has often been difficult to study these populations due to limitations in extant data sources. OBJECTIVE This paper will demonstrate a method of measuring key demographic indicators for Ultra-Orthodox Jews using demographic and language variables in the American Community Survey (ACS).","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":" 49","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135340730","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-11-02DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.28
Edward Telles, Albert Esteve, Andres Castro
BACKGROUND Intermarriage is a leading indicator of racialized relations. Scholarly literature has focused on the United States and shows that black–white intermarriage is especially low within that country. Surprisingly, there are no studies that compare black–white intermarriage across a broad range of countries around the world. OBJECTIVE How does black–white intermarriage compare in Brazil, Cuba, France, South Africa, the United States, and the United Kingdom circa 2010?
{"title":"Black–white intermarriage in global perspective","authors":"Edward Telles, Albert Esteve, Andres Castro","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.28","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.28","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND Intermarriage is a leading indicator of racialized relations. Scholarly literature has focused on the United States and shows that black–white intermarriage is especially low within that country. Surprisingly, there are no studies that compare black–white intermarriage across a broad range of countries around the world. OBJECTIVE How does black–white intermarriage compare in Brazil, Cuba, France, South Africa, the United States, and the United Kingdom circa 2010?","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"22 6","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135875174","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-18DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.27
Luis Rosero-Bixby
BACKGROUND The Nicoya region in Costa Rica has been identified as one of a handful of hotspots of extreme longevity. The evidence supporting this status comes mostly from observing the 1990 and 2000 decades and cohorts born before 1930. OBJECTIVE To determine how the longevity advantage of older men in Nicoya has progressed in the period 1990 to 2020 and in cohorts born from 1900 to 1950. METHODS Remaining length of life and adult mortality were estimated using new public administrative records from the electoral system and a Gompertz regression model. A new nationwide survival-time database of 550,000 adult Costa Ricans who were alive at any point during 1990–2020 was put together.
{"title":"The vanishing advantage of longevity in Nicoya, Costa Rica: A cohort shift","authors":"Luis Rosero-Bixby","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.27","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.27","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND The Nicoya region in Costa Rica has been identified as one of a handful of hotspots of extreme longevity. The evidence supporting this status comes mostly from observing the 1990 and 2000 decades and cohorts born before 1930. OBJECTIVE To determine how the longevity advantage of older men in Nicoya has progressed in the period 1990 to 2020 and in cohorts born from 1900 to 1950. METHODS Remaining length of life and adult mortality were estimated using new public administrative records from the electoral system and a Gompertz regression model. A new nationwide survival-time database of 550,000 adult Costa Ricans who were alive at any point during 1990–2020 was put together.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"31 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135824047","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-17DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.26
Vladimir Canudas-Romo, Wen Su, Mike Hollingshaus
BACKGROUND Two seminal studies in the 1980s, by Preston and Coale (1982) and Arthur and Vaupel (1984), generalized the Lotka equations developing the variable-r methods. OBJECTIVE Time changes in sex ratios (males:females) are studied from the perspective of the variable-r method to estimate the contributions of fertility, mortality, and net-migration. METHODS The time change in sex ratios can be calculated as a comparison of the growth rates of the sexes. The difference is then decomposed into population composition, and the age-specific components of fertility, mortality, and net migration. Thirteen countries with long historical demographic series are used to illustrate the time trends in sex ratios.
{"title":"Variable-r in sex ratios: Formulas in honor of Jim Vaupel","authors":"Vladimir Canudas-Romo, Wen Su, Mike Hollingshaus","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.26","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.26","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND Two seminal studies in the 1980s, by Preston and Coale (1982) and Arthur and Vaupel (1984), generalized the Lotka equations developing the variable-r methods. OBJECTIVE Time changes in sex ratios (males:females) are studied from the perspective of the variable-r method to estimate the contributions of fertility, mortality, and net-migration. METHODS The time change in sex ratios can be calculated as a comparison of the growth rates of the sexes. The difference is then decomposed into population composition, and the age-specific components of fertility, mortality, and net migration. Thirteen countries with long historical demographic series are used to illustrate the time trends in sex ratios.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"10 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135944193","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-11DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.25
Jonas Helgertz, John Robert Warren
BACKGROUND Smoking is a leading cause of premature death across contemporary developed nations, but few longitudinal individual-level studies have examined the long-term health consequences of exposure to smoking. OBJECTIVE We examine the effect of fetal and infant exposure to exogenous variation in smoking, brought about by state-level cigarette taxation, on adulthood and old-age mortality (ages 55 ‒ 73) among cohorts of boys born in the United States during the 1920s and 1930s.
{"title":"Early life exposure to cigarette smoking and adult and old-age male mortality: Evidence from linked US full-count census and mortality data","authors":"Jonas Helgertz, John Robert Warren","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.25","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.25","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND Smoking is a leading cause of premature death across contemporary developed nations, but few longitudinal individual-level studies have examined the long-term health consequences of exposure to smoking. OBJECTIVE We examine the effect of fetal and infant exposure to exogenous variation in smoking, brought about by state-level cigarette taxation, on adulthood and old-age mortality (ages 55 ‒ 73) among cohorts of boys born in the United States during the 1920s and 1930s.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"23 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136059206","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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