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Investigating the application of generalized additive models to discrete-time event history analysis for birth events 研究广义加性模型在出生事件离散时间事件历史分析中的应用
IF 2.1 3区 社会学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2022-10-28 DOI: 10.4054/demres.2022.47.22
Joann Ellison, A. Berrington, Erengul Dodd, J. Forster
BACKGROUND Discrete-time event history analysis (EHA) is the standard approach taken when modelling fertility histories collected in surveys, where the date of birth is often recorded imprecisely. This method is commonly used to investigate the factors associated with the time to a first or subsequent conception or birth. Although there is an emerging trend towards the smooth incorporation of continuous covariates in the broader literature, this is yet to be formally embraced in the context of birth events. OBJECTIVE We investigate the formal application of smooth methods implemented via generalized additive models (GAMs) to the analysis of fertility histories. We also determine whether and where GAMs offer a practical improvement over existing approaches. We fit parity-specific logistic GAMs to data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study, learning about the effects of age, period, time since last birth, educational qualification, and country of birth. First, we select the most parsimonious GAMs that fit the data sufficiently well. Then we compare them with corresponding models that use the existing methods of categorical, polynomial, and piecewise linear spline representations in terms of fit, complexity, and substantive insights gained.
背景离散时间事件历史分析(EHA)是对调查中收集的生育历史进行建模时采用的标准方法,其中出生日期通常记录不准确。这种方法通常用于调查与第一次或随后的受孕或分娩时间相关的因素。尽管在更广泛的文献中出现了平稳合并连续协变量的新趋势,但在出生事件的背景下,这还没有被正式接受。目的探讨通过广义加性模型(GAMs)实现的光滑方法在生育史分析中的正式应用。我们还确定GAMs是否以及在哪里提供了对现有方法的实际改进。我们对来自英国家庭纵向研究(UK Household Longitudinal Study)的数据进行了特定于均等的logistic GAMs拟合,了解了年龄、时期、上次出生后的时间、教育程度和出生国家的影响。首先,我们选择最简洁的GAMs,它与数据拟合得足够好。然后,我们将它们与使用分类、多项式和分段线性样条表示的现有方法的相应模型在拟合、复杂性和获得的实质性见解方面进行比较。
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引用次数: 0
When investment backfires: Unbalanced sex ratios and mental health among boys in rural areas 当投资适得其反:农村地区男孩的性别比例失衡和心理健康问题
IF 2.1 3区 社会学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2022-10-26 DOI: 10.4054/demres.2022.47.21
Hantao Wu, Ting Li
BACKGROUND In China, a key feature of demographic transition is the abnormally high sex ratio, resulting in a shortage of brides. In addition, depressive symptoms among Chinese adolescents have risen sharply in the last decade, and among these adolescents, boys in rural areas are most likely to be depressed. OBJECTIVE In this study, we investigate the phenomenon of depression in a large number of rural boys. We hypothesize that upon perceiving the strong competition in the local marriage market, rural parents tend to increase educational investment to improve their sons’ relative standing in the market, thereby leading to high pressure and depression among rural boys. we constructed a difference-in-differences model featuring rich fixed to absorb invariant confounding factors and cohort trends across To ensure the of we studied the first the child’s gender.
背景在中国,人口结构转型的一个关键特征是性别比例异常高,导致新娘短缺。此外,在过去十年中,中国青少年的抑郁症状急剧上升,在这些青少年中,农村地区的男孩最容易抑郁。目的本研究调查了大量农村男孩的抑郁现象。我们假设,在感知到当地婚姻市场的激烈竞争后,农村父母倾向于增加教育投资,以提高儿子在市场上的相对地位,从而导致农村男孩的高压和抑郁。我们构建了一个差异中的差异模型,该模型具有丰富的固定到吸收不变的混杂因素和跨性别的队列趋势。
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引用次数: 0
Culture portability from origin to destination country: The gender division of domestic work among migrants in Italy 从原籍国到目的地国的文化可移植性:意大利移民家务劳动的性别划分
IF 2.1 3区 社会学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2022-10-25 DOI: 10.4054/demres.2022.47.20
E. Brini, Anna Zamberlan, P. Barbieri
BACKGROUND The relative importance of a cultural component in the gender division of unpaid labour is still debated. OBJECTIVE Drawing on the epidemiological approach to the study of culture, we investigate the cultural component of gender inequality by examining whether gender asymmetries in housework and childcare in families with a migrant background relate to gender equity in the country of origin. METHODS Through multilevel models based on microlevel data (Istat SCIF survey), we examine the extent to which the division of household labour between immigrant partners living in Italy relates to gender equity in their origin country, proxied by the Global Gender Gap Index. We further analyse the changing importance of gender equity in the country of origin at different lengths of stay in the destination country. the coefficient related to overall housework, and points to the presence of fine-grained distinctions between specific activities. Results for childcare tasks corroborate descriptive and aggregate findings: gender equity in the origin country relates positively and strongly (also compared to housework) to male engagement in both general childcare (beta = 0.034) and children’s education (beta = 0.039).
背景在无偿劳动的性别划分中,文化因素的相对重要性仍然存在争议。目的利用流行病学方法研究文化,我们通过研究移民背景家庭在家务和育儿方面的性别不对称是否与原籍国的性别公平有关,来调查性别不平等的文化成分。方法通过基于微观层面数据的多层次模型(Istat SCIF调查),我们以全球性别差距指数为代表,考察了居住在意大利的移民伴侣之间的家庭劳动分工与原籍国性别公平的关系。我们进一步分析了在目的地国停留不同时间的原籍国性别平等重要性的变化。该系数与整体家务劳动有关,并指出特定活动之间存在细微差别。儿童保育任务的结果证实了描述性和综合性研究结果:原籍国的性别公平(也与家务劳动相比)与男性参与一般儿童保育(β=0.034)和儿童教育(β=0.039)呈正相关。
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引用次数: 2
Influenza mortality in French regions after the Hong Kong flu pandemic 香港流感大流行后法国各地区的流感死亡率
IF 2.1 3区 社会学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2022-10-12 DOI: 10.4054/demres.2022.47.19
F. Bonnet, Josselin Thuilliez, Hippolyte d’Albis
BACKGROUND Influenza mortality has dramatically decreased in France since the 1950s. Annual death rates peaked during two pandemics: the Asian flu (1956–1957) and the Hong Kong flu (1969–1970). OBJECTIVE This study’s objective is to evaluate whether the second pandemic created a structural change in the dynamics of influenza mortality in France. We employ a new database on influenza mortality since 1950 at the subnational level (90 geographic areas) to estimate statistical models to find out whether a structural change happened and to explain the differences in mortality rates across geographic areas. Influenza mortality increased between 1950 and 1969 and decreased from 1970 onward.
背景自20世纪50年代以来,法国的流感死亡率急剧下降。年死亡率在两次大流行期间达到顶峰:亚洲流感(1956年至1957年)和香港流感(1969年至1970年)。目的本研究的目的是评估第二次流感大流行是否造成了法国流感死亡率动态的结构性变化。我们使用了一个关于1950年以来国家以下一级(90个地理区域)流感死亡率的新数据库来估计统计模型,以查明是否发生了结构性变化,并解释不同地理区域死亡率的差异。流感死亡率在1950年至1969年间增加,从1970年开始下降。
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引用次数: 0
Female sterilization in the life course: Understanding trends and differentials in early sterilization 女性生命过程中的绝育:了解早期绝育的趋势和差异
IF 2.1 3区 社会学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2022-10-07 DOI: 10.4054/demres.2022.47.18
S. Johnsen, M. Sweeney
Socioeconomically disadvantaged women and women of color are more likely than other women both to undergo contraceptive sterilization and to desire sterilization reversal. Although younger age at sterilization is associated with greater likelihood of regret, we know little about socioeconomic and racial/ethnic differences in sterilization timing within the life course. OBJECTIVE We examine racial, ethnic, and educational differences in the prevalence of sterilization and its timing in the life course. birth, parity, and history of unintended childbearing). We model early sterilization using logistic regression, limiting the sample to sterilized women only in order to consider the life timing of sterilization separately from its overall likelihood of occurrence at some point in the life course. We pool data over the entire period from 1995 to 2019 to increase sample sizes and limit the sample to older women, age 40 to 44, in order to observe respondents toward the end of their reproductive lives.
社会经济上处于不利地位的妇女和有色人种妇女比其他妇女更有可能接受避孕绝育和希望逆转绝育。虽然年龄越小,后悔的可能性越大,但我们对社会经济和种族/民族在生命过程中绝育时间的差异知之甚少。目的:我们研究种族、民族和教育程度在绝育流行率及其在生命过程中的时间上的差异。出生、胎次和意外生育史)。我们使用逻辑回归对早期绝育进行建模,将样本限制在绝育妇女中,只是为了将绝育的生命时间与其在生命过程中某个时刻发生的总体可能性分开考虑。我们汇集了1995年至2019年整个时期的数据,以增加样本量,并将样本限制在40岁至44岁的老年女性中,以观察受访者在生育期结束时的情况。
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引用次数: 0
Endogamy and relationship dissolution: Does unmarried cohabitation matter? 内婚制与关系破裂:未婚同居重要吗?
IF 2.1 3区 社会学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2022-09-27 DOI: 10.4054/demres.2022.47.17
Layla Van den Berg, D. Mortelmans
BACKGROUND Previous studies on the role of partner choice in relationship dissolution have shown that exogamous marriages often have higher divorce risks. Yet, given that these studies focus only on marriages, it remains unclear whether the same dynamics can be seen in unmarried cohabiting couples, or what the exact role of a premarital cohabitation period is. OBJECTIVE This paper aims to examine whether the link between union dissolution and endogamy differs across relationship types by comparing marriages with and without a period of premarital cohabitation and unmarried cohabiting couples. Based on survival analyses and multivariate event history models, this study analyzes union dissolution risks among married and unmarried cohabiting couples with at least one partner of Belgian, Southern European, Turkish, Moroccan, Congolese, Burundian, or Rwandan descent. We use longitudinal data from the Belgian National and Social Security registers for a sample of couples formed between 1999 and 2001. The results indicated that exogamous direct marriages have substantially higher risks of relationship dissolution. Yet, differences in dissolution risks between exogamous and endogamous couples with and without a migrant background become smaller or disappear entirely when unmarried cohabitation is involved.
背景先前关于伴侣选择在关系破裂中的作用的研究表明,异族通婚往往有更高的离婚风险。然而,鉴于这些研究只关注婚姻,目前尚不清楚未婚同居夫妇是否也能看到同样的动态,或者婚前同居期的确切作用是什么。目的通过比较有婚前同居期和没有婚前同居期的婚姻和未婚同居期的婚姻,探讨婚姻解体与内婚制之间的联系在不同的关系类型中是否存在差异。基于生存分析和多变量事件历史模型,本研究分析了至少有一方是比利时人、南欧人、土耳其人、摩洛哥人、刚果人、布隆迪人或卢旺达人后裔的已婚和未婚同居夫妇的婚姻破裂风险。我们使用的纵向数据来自比利时国家和社会保障登记的夫妇样本在1999年和2001年之间形成。结果表明,异族通婚的直接婚姻关系破裂的风险要高得多。然而,当涉及到未婚同居时,有或没有移民背景的外婚和内婚夫妇在离婚风险方面的差异会变小或完全消失。
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引用次数: 0
Legal status and health disparities: An examination of health insurance coverage among the foreign-born 法律地位和健康差距:对外国出生人口健康保险覆盖情况的调查
IF 2.1 3区 社会学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2022-09-20 DOI: 10.4054/demres.2022.47.16
Christal Hamilton, Claire E. Altman, James D. Bachmeier, Cody Spence
OBJECTIVE This paper employs a statistical matching procedure to impute the legal status of foreignborn adults in US Census surveys in order to estimate migration status disparities in health insurance coverage. METHODS Using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, we impute the legal/citizenship (migration) status of immigrants in the National Health Interview Survey. RESULTS Results from the pooled data document disparities in health insurance coverage among four citizen/legal status groups: naturalized citizens, lawful permanent residents, legal nonimmigrants, and unauthorized immigrants. Naturalized citizens had the highest rate of health insurance coverage, followed by legal immigrants, legal nonimmigrants, and unauthorized immigrants. CONTRIBUTIONS The paper presents revised pre–Affordable Care Act (ACA) estimates of health insurance coverage among the foreign-born that are crucial for evaluating the impact of the ACA on reducing or exacerbating disparities in health coverage among migration status groups. 1 Center on Poverty and Social Policy, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA. Email: cgh2139@columbia.edu. 2 Department of Health Sciences and Truman School of Public Affairs, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO, USA. 3 Department of Sociology, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA, USA. Hamilton et al.: Legal status and health disparities 454 https://www.demographic-research.org
目的采用统计匹配程序估算美国人口普查中外国出生成年人的法律地位,以估计移民身份在健康保险覆盖方面的差异。方法使用收入和项目参与调查的数据,我们在全国健康访谈调查中计算移民的合法/公民身份(移民)身份。结果汇总数据的结果记录了四种公民/合法身份群体(归化公民、合法永久居民、合法非移民和非法移民)健康保险覆盖率的差异。入籍公民的医疗保险覆盖率最高,其次是合法移民、合法非移民和非法移民。本文提出了修订后的平价医疗法案(ACA)出台前对外国出生人口健康保险覆盖率的估计,这对于评估ACA对减少或加剧移民身份群体健康保险差距的影响至关重要。1哥伦比亚大学贫困与社会政策研究中心,美国纽约;电子邮件:cgh2139@columbia.edu。2密苏里大学卫生科学系和杜鲁门公共事务学院,美国密苏里州哥伦比亚3天普大学社会学系,美国费城;汉密尔顿等人:法律地位和健康差距454 https://www.demographic-research.org
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引用次数: 1
Women's economic empowerment in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence from cross-national population data 撒哈拉以南非洲妇女的经济赋权:来自跨国人口数据的证据
IF 2.1 3区 社会学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2022-09-15 DOI: 10.4054/demres.2022.47.15
Eunice Williams, S. Padmadas, Heini Vaisanen
BACKGROUND Women’s economic empowerment (WEE) has attracted high-level policy interest, and is recognized as a central, cross-cutting outcome, and the cornerstone for achieving Sustainable Development Goals. However, it lacks a standardised definition and standard, measurable, and comparable indicators, and is plagued by large data gaps, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). OBJECTIVE We examine the extent of WEE in SSA. Our goal is to identify WEE country typologies explaining the variation in and contributing domains of WEE in each country. Using in we apply principal component analysis to generate a WEE based better understand contributors underlying and derive country typologies.
背景妇女经济赋权(WEE)引起了高层政策的关注,并被公认为一项核心的、贯穿各领域的成果,是实现可持续发展目标的基石。然而,它缺乏标准化的定义和标准、可衡量和可比的指标,并且受到巨大数据差距的困扰,尤其是在撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)。目的检测SSA中WEE的程度。我们的目标是确定WEE国家类型,解释每个国家WEE的变化和贡献领域。在中,我们应用主成分分析来生成基于WEE的数据,更好地理解潜在的贡献者并推导出国家类型。
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引用次数: 4
The association between childlessness and voting turnout in 38 countries 38个国家的无子女与投票率之间的关系
IF 2.1 3区 社会学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2022-09-13 DOI: 10.4054/demres.2022.47.14
Ryohei Mogi, B. Arpino
OBJECTIVE This descriptive study aims to analyse the association between childlessness and voting turnout. METHODS We used the first nine rounds of the European Social Survey and logistic regression models to estimate the association between childlessness and having voted in the last national elections using data from 38 countries. Our results show that childlessness is negatively associated with voting turnout in general. The association is stronger among individuals who are in the late reproductive lifespan (ages 35 to 39, 40 to 44, and 45 to 49), males, and those with lower education. The analyses show also considerable heterogeneity across countries but without a clear pattern.
目的本描述性研究旨在分析无子女与投票率之间的关系。方法我们使用前九轮欧洲社会调查和逻辑回归模型,使用来自38个国家的数据来估计无子女与在上次全国选举中投票之间的关系。我们的研究结果表明,一般来说,无子女与投票率呈负相关。在生殖寿命较晚的个体(35至39岁、40至44岁和45至49岁)、男性和受教育程度较低的人中,这种联系更强。分析还显示,各国之间存在相当大的异质性,但没有明确的模式。
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引用次数: 1
Disentangling the Swedish fertility decline of the 2010s 解开2010年代瑞典生育率下降的谜团
IF 2.1 3区 社会学 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2022-08-10 DOI: 10.4054/demres.2022.47.12
Sofi Ohlsson‐Wijk, G. Andersson
BACKGROUND The downward fertility trend in Western countries during the 2010s is puzzling, not least in the Nordic region. OBJECTIVE In order to better understand its driving forces, we examine whether the decline is driven by differential behavior or compositional changes across sociodemographic population subgroups, for the empirical case of Sweden. METHODS Event-history techniques are applied to register data of the Swedish-born population to provide an in-depth analysis of the sociodemographic profile of the fertility decline.
背景2010年代西方国家的生育率下降趋势令人费解,尤其是在北欧地区。目的为了更好地理解其驱动力,我们以瑞典的实证案例为例,研究了这种下降是由社会人口亚组的差异行为还是组成变化驱动的。方法将事件历史技术应用于瑞典出生人口的登记数据,以深入分析生育率下降的社会人口学特征。
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引用次数: 3
期刊
Demographic Research
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