Pub Date : 2024-01-04DOI: 10.4054/demres.2024.50.1
E. Mussino, Sven Drefahl, Matthew Wallace, S. Billingsley, S. Aradhya, Gunnar Andersson
{"title":"Lives saved, lives lost, and under-reported COVID-19 deaths: Excess and non-excess mortality in relation to cause-specific mortality during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Sweden","authors":"E. Mussino, Sven Drefahl, Matthew Wallace, S. Billingsley, S. Aradhya, Gunnar Andersson","doi":"10.4054/demres.2024.50.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2024.50.1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"43 20","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2024-01-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139385105","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-15DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.42
Jessie Yeung, Monica Alexander, Tim Riffe
BACKGROUND The Rogers–Castro model migration schedule is a key model for migration trends over the life course. It is applied in a wide variety of settings by demographers to examine the relationship between age and migration intensity. This model is nonlinear and can have up to 13 parameters, which can make estimation difficult. Existing techniques for parameter estimation can lead to issues such as nonconvergence, sensitivity to initial values, or optimization algorithms that do not reach the global optimum. OBJECTIVE We propose a new method of estimating Rogers–Castro model migration schedule parameters that overcomes most common difficulties.
{"title":"Bayesian implementation of Rogers–Castro model migration schedules: An alternative technique for parameter estimation","authors":"Jessie Yeung, Monica Alexander, Tim Riffe","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.42","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.42","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND The Rogers–Castro model migration schedule is a key model for migration trends over the life course. It is applied in a wide variety of settings by demographers to examine the relationship between age and migration intensity. This model is nonlinear and can have up to 13 parameters, which can make estimation difficult. Existing techniques for parameter estimation can lead to issues such as nonconvergence, sensitivity to initial values, or optimization algorithms that do not reach the global optimum. OBJECTIVE We propose a new method of estimating Rogers–Castro model migration schedule parameters that overcomes most common difficulties.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"3 9","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138996083","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-14DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.41
H. Caswell, Rachel Margolis, Ashton M. Verdery
{"title":"The formal demography of kinship V: Kin loss, bereavement, and causes of death","authors":"H. Caswell, Rachel Margolis, Ashton M. Verdery","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.41","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.41","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"68 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138971301","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-13DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.40
Frans Willekens
BACKGROUND The public sector publishes vast amounts of open data and metadata. APIs (application programming interfaces) are transforming the way data are collected, documented, and disseminated. The transformation is slow, however, due to differences in communication protocol, data definition, and data format. The development is of particular relevance to demography, being a data-intensive science. It paves the way to the automation of data acquisition and the integration of data acquisition and data analysis. Together with the parallel development of literate programming, which allows the integration of text and computer code in a single document, programmatic access to data makes workflows transparent, verifiable, and easy to replicate by others. The Statistical Data and Metadata Exchange (SDMX) standard, which has emerged as a popular option for data and metadata exchange, makes finding and retrieving data and metadata easy and swift. Query strings form URLs with a standardised syntax.
{"title":"Programmatic access to open statistical data for population studies: The SDMX standard","authors":"Frans Willekens","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.40","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.40","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND The public sector publishes vast amounts of open data and metadata. APIs (application programming interfaces) are transforming the way data are collected, documented, and disseminated. The transformation is slow, however, due to differences in communication protocol, data definition, and data format. The development is of particular relevance to demography, being a data-intensive science. It paves the way to the automation of data acquisition and the integration of data acquisition and data analysis. Together with the parallel development of literate programming, which allows the integration of text and computer code in a single document, programmatic access to data makes workflows transparent, verifiable, and easy to replicate by others. The Statistical Data and Metadata Exchange (SDMX) standard, which has emerged as a popular option for data and metadata exchange, makes finding and retrieving data and metadata easy and swift. Query strings form URLs with a standardised syntax.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"3 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139005575","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-12DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.39
Dominika Perdoch Sladká
BACKGROUND Research shows that marital plans influence marital behavior. However, romantic partners may differ in their marital plans, and these differences can affect relationship outcomes. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between agreement in short-term marital plans and partnership transitions in German opposite-sex couples and to find whether there is a gender difference in the relationship between marital plans and the risk of marriage or dissolution. METHOD
{"title":"Marital plans and partnership transitions among German opposite-sex couples: Couple agreement and gender differences","authors":"Dominika Perdoch Sladká","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.39","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.39","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND Research shows that marital plans influence marital behavior. However, romantic partners may differ in their marital plans, and these differences can affect relationship outcomes. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between agreement in short-term marital plans and partnership transitions in German opposite-sex couples and to find whether there is a gender difference in the relationship between marital plans and the risk of marriage or dissolution. METHOD","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"24 16","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139009275","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-08DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.38
Jacob Martin, J. Aburto, I˜naki Permanyer
BACKGROUND Indicators of lifespan inequality, such as the life table entropy or variance of age at death, provide a measure of inequality in the timing of death. A range of indicators of relative and absolute inequality exist, and their evolution over time and sensitivity to changes in age-specific mortality have been studied. However, the coefficient of variation, a relative indicator defined as the standard deviation divided by the mean of the age at death distribution, has yet to be studied
{"title":"Dynamics of the coefficient of variation of the age at death distribution","authors":"Jacob Martin, J. Aburto, I˜naki Permanyer","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.38","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.38","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND Indicators of lifespan inequality, such as the life table entropy or variance of age at death, provide a measure of inequality in the timing of death. A range of indicators of relative and absolute inequality exist, and their evolution over time and sensitivity to changes in age-specific mortality have been studied. However, the coefficient of variation, a relative indicator defined as the standard deviation divided by the mean of the age at death distribution, has yet to be studied","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"54 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138587149","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-07DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.37
Robert Schoen
OBJECTIVE Few methods are available for analyzing populations with changing rates. Here hyperstable models are presented and substantially extended to facilitate such analyses. METHODS Hyperstable models, where a known birth trajectory yields a consistent set of age-specific birth rates, are set out in both discrete and continuous form. Mathematical analysis is used to find new relationships between model functions for a range of birth trajectories. RESULTS Hyperstable population projection matrices can create bridges that project any given initial population to any given ending population. New, explicit relationships are found between period and cohort births for exponential, polynomial, and sinusoidal birth trajectories. In quadratic and cubic models, the number of cohort births equals the number of period births a generation later, with a modest adjustment. In sinusoidal models, cohort births equal the number of period births a generation later, modified by a factor related to cycle length.
{"title":"Analyzing hyperstable population models","authors":"Robert Schoen","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.37","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.37","url":null,"abstract":"OBJECTIVE Few methods are available for analyzing populations with changing rates. Here hyperstable models are presented and substantially extended to facilitate such analyses. METHODS Hyperstable models, where a known birth trajectory yields a consistent set of age-specific birth rates, are set out in both discrete and continuous form. Mathematical analysis is used to find new relationships between model functions for a range of birth trajectories. RESULTS Hyperstable population projection matrices can create bridges that project any given initial population to any given ending population. New, explicit relationships are found between period and cohort births for exponential, polynomial, and sinusoidal birth trajectories. In quadratic and cubic models, the number of cohort births equals the number of period births a generation later, with a modest adjustment. In sinusoidal models, cohort births equal the number of period births a generation later, modified by a factor related to cycle length.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"40 5","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138593545","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
BACKGROUND Following the rapid increase of asylum seekers arriving in the European Union in 2015/16, policymakers have invested heavily in improving their foresight and forecasting capabilities. A common method to elicit expert predictions are Delphi surveys. This approach has attracted concern in the literature, given the high uncertainty in experts’ predictions. However, there exists limited guidance on specific design choices for future-related Delphi surveys. OBJECTIVE We test whether or not small adjustments to the Delphi survey can increase certainty (i.e., reduce variation) in expert predictions on immigration to the EU in 2030.
{"title":"Reducing uncertainty in Delphi surveys: A case study on immigration to the EU","authors":"Rhea Ravenna Sohst, Eduardo Acostamadiedo, Jasper Tjaden","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.36","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.36","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND Following the rapid increase of asylum seekers arriving in the European Union in 2015/16, policymakers have invested heavily in improving their foresight and forecasting capabilities. A common method to elicit expert predictions are Delphi surveys. This approach has attracted concern in the literature, given the high uncertainty in experts’ predictions. However, there exists limited guidance on specific design choices for future-related Delphi surveys. OBJECTIVE We test whether or not small adjustments to the Delphi survey can increase certainty (i.e., reduce variation) in expert predictions on immigration to the EU in 2030.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"89 11","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138595957","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-12-01DOI: 10.4054/demres.2023.49.35
A. Recio Alcaide, César Pérez López, Francisco Bolúmar Montrull
BACKGROUND Changes in birth seasonality patterns have been documented in several countries, whether long-lasting or temporary. In Spain, a decline in and absence of birth seasonality was reported in 1941–2000. This study extends the analysis to the full period of available monthly data, exploring changes in birth seasonality in Spain, its connection to social/health phenomena, and its related effects.
{"title":"Changes in birth seasonality in Spain: Data from 1863–1870 and 1900–2021","authors":"A. Recio Alcaide, César Pérez López, Francisco Bolúmar Montrull","doi":"10.4054/demres.2023.49.35","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4054/demres.2023.49.35","url":null,"abstract":"BACKGROUND Changes in birth seasonality patterns have been documented in several countries, whether long-lasting or temporary. In Spain, a decline in and absence of birth seasonality was reported in 1941–2000. This study extends the analysis to the full period of available monthly data, exploring changes in birth seasonality in Spain, its connection to social/health phenomena, and its related effects.","PeriodicalId":48242,"journal":{"name":"Demographic Research","volume":"16 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.1,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"138626375","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"社会学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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