On 5 June 2017, an airspace blockade was imposed on the State of Qatar by Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (neighboring countries), and Egypt. We exploit this exogenous increase in air transportation costs toward non-blockading countries to examine the effect of increased travel distance, due to re-routing, on bilateral trade. Based on a gravity model estimated using a Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator, we find a distance elasticity of imports between −0.3 and −0.5. Overcoming the limitations of cross-sectional studies and taking advantage of this quasi-natural experiment, our findings are robust and revise downward previous estimates of the distance elasticity.
{"title":"The gravity of distance: evidence from a trade embargo","authors":"Afnan Al-Malk, Jean-François Maystadt, Maurizio Zanardi","doi":"10.1093/jeg/lbae033","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbae033","url":null,"abstract":"On 5 June 2017, an airspace blockade was imposed on the State of Qatar by Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (neighboring countries), and Egypt. We exploit this exogenous increase in air transportation costs toward non-blockading countries to examine the effect of increased travel distance, due to re-routing, on bilateral trade. Based on a gravity model estimated using a Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator, we find a distance elasticity of imports between −0.3 and −0.5. Overcoming the limitations of cross-sectional studies and taking advantage of this quasi-natural experiment, our findings are robust and revise downward previous estimates of the distance elasticity.","PeriodicalId":48251,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Geography","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142360143","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We revisit the natural experiments of division and unification of Germany. The negative shock to local market access following the division of Germany led to a fast and strong downward adjustment of the size of West German cities near the new border. In contrast, the positive shock of reunification did not lead to any change in their relative size. Even three decades after reunification, no convergence can be observed. We show that local subsidies to East Germany could have contributed to this asymmetry in time.
{"title":"When market access gains do not spur urban growth","authors":"Marius Klein, Ferdinand Rauch","doi":"10.1093/jeg/lbae032","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbae032","url":null,"abstract":"We revisit the natural experiments of division and unification of Germany. The negative shock to local market access following the division of Germany led to a fast and strong downward adjustment of the size of West German cities near the new border. In contrast, the positive shock of reunification did not lead to any change in their relative size. Even three decades after reunification, no convergence can be observed. We show that local subsidies to East Germany could have contributed to this asymmetry in time.","PeriodicalId":48251,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Geography","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142321645","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Stefan Geskus, Matthijs B Punt, Thomas Bauwens, Rense Corten, Koen Frenken
In recent decades, renewable energy cooperatives have substantially increased their share of renewable energy production. The operation of these cooperatives requires collective action, potentially supported by local social capital. We investigate whether municipal-level bonding and bridging social capital explain the differences in the prevalence of renewable energy cooperatives across Dutch municipalities. We measure social capital directly from social network structures within and between municipalities, thus overcoming limitations of using proxies. Our empirical results reveal that bonding rather than bridging social capital supports renewable energy cooperatives, shedding new light on the role these types of social capital play in regional development.
{"title":"Does social capital foster renewable energy cooperatives?","authors":"Stefan Geskus, Matthijs B Punt, Thomas Bauwens, Rense Corten, Koen Frenken","doi":"10.1093/jeg/lbae031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbae031","url":null,"abstract":"In recent decades, renewable energy cooperatives have substantially increased their share of renewable energy production. The operation of these cooperatives requires collective action, potentially supported by local social capital. We investigate whether municipal-level bonding and bridging social capital explain the differences in the prevalence of renewable energy cooperatives across Dutch municipalities. We measure social capital directly from social network structures within and between municipalities, thus overcoming limitations of using proxies. Our empirical results reveal that bonding rather than bridging social capital supports renewable energy cooperatives, shedding new light on the role these types of social capital play in regional development.","PeriodicalId":48251,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Geography","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142275568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In urban economics, transportation costs are a key determinant of land value. However, in virtual worlds, these costs are generally limited by the users’ ability to teleport. Drawing from urban and attention economic literature, we propose a theoretical model microfounded on user behavior. The model suggests that the relative value of land parcels hinges on their potential to attract visitors. Our empirical analysis supports this by demonstrating that location remains crucial in virtual worlds and highlighting the role of the teleportation threshold. We discuss the model’s general applicability, reaffirming the significance of location within most virtual worlds.
{"title":"Land valuation in the metaverse: location matters","authors":"Mitchell Goldberg, Peter Kugler, Fabian Schär","doi":"10.1093/jeg/lbae027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbae027","url":null,"abstract":"In urban economics, transportation costs are a key determinant of land value. However, in virtual worlds, these costs are generally limited by the users’ ability to teleport. Drawing from urban and attention economic literature, we propose a theoretical model microfounded on user behavior. The model suggests that the relative value of land parcels hinges on their potential to attract visitors. Our empirical analysis supports this by demonstrating that location remains crucial in virtual worlds and highlighting the role of the teleportation threshold. We discuss the model’s general applicability, reaffirming the significance of location within most virtual worlds.","PeriodicalId":48251,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Geography","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142085181","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article studies the effect of return initiatives in rural regions of Germany on interregional return migration. The initiatives aim to increase return migration by, amongst other things, providing information on local employment opportunities and personal support to workers interested in returning to find a job in the former rural region of residence. Analysing administrative data on individual labour market trajectories through survival analysis and difference-in-differences estimation, we find that return initiatives, on average, promote interregional return migration. Among the considered workers, particularly those in the middle and at the top of the wage distribution are more likely to return.
{"title":"Welcome back! The impact of ‘return initiatives’ on return migration to rural regions","authors":"Moritz Meister, Jan Cornelius Peters, Anja Rossen","doi":"10.1093/jeg/lbae028","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbae028","url":null,"abstract":"This article studies the effect of return initiatives in rural regions of Germany on interregional return migration. The initiatives aim to increase return migration by, amongst other things, providing information on local employment opportunities and personal support to workers interested in returning to find a job in the former rural region of residence. Analysing administrative data on individual labour market trajectories through survival analysis and difference-in-differences estimation, we find that return initiatives, on average, promote interregional return migration. Among the considered workers, particularly those in the middle and at the top of the wage distribution are more likely to return.","PeriodicalId":48251,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Geography","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142085072","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Miquel-Àngel Garcia-López, Ilias Pasidis, Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal
We study whether highway and railroad improvements cause population suburbanization in Europe’s cities. We construct a unique population and transportation dataset covering 579 cities from 29 European countries for the period 1961–2011. In order to make a causal inference, we rely on historical instruments. Our average results indicate that highways, but not railroads, were responsible for the suburbanization process: each additional highway ray decreased the share of the central city population by 5 percentage points, whereas new railroads had no impact. The heterogeneity analyses provide evidence of different patterns based on the time of the investment, the city’s size and density, and its geographical location.
{"title":"Suburbanization and transportation in European cities","authors":"Miquel-Àngel Garcia-López, Ilias Pasidis, Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal","doi":"10.1093/jeg/lbae029","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbae029","url":null,"abstract":"We study whether highway and railroad improvements cause population suburbanization in Europe’s cities. We construct a unique population and transportation dataset covering 579 cities from 29 European countries for the period 1961–2011. In order to make a causal inference, we rely on historical instruments. Our average results indicate that highways, but not railroads, were responsible for the suburbanization process: each additional highway ray decreased the share of the central city population by 5 percentage points, whereas new railroads had no impact. The heterogeneity analyses provide evidence of different patterns based on the time of the investment, the city’s size and density, and its geographical location.","PeriodicalId":48251,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Geography","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142042438","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Konstantin Boss, Andre Groeger, Tobias Heidland, Finja Krueger, Conghan Zheng
We develop monthly asylum seeker flow forecasting models for 157 origin countries to the EU27, using machine learning and high-dimensional data, including digital trace data from Google Trends. Comparing different models and forecasting horizons and validating out-of-sample, we find that an ensemble forecast combining Random Forest and Extreme Gradient Boosting algorithms outperforms the random walk over horizons between 3 and 12 months. For large corridors, this holds in a parsimonious model exclusively based on Google Trends variables, which has the advantage of near real-time availability. We provide practical recommendations how our approach can enable ahead-of-period asylum seeker flow forecasting applications.
{"title":"Forecasting bilateral asylum seeker flows with high-dimensional data and machine learning techniques","authors":"Konstantin Boss, Andre Groeger, Tobias Heidland, Finja Krueger, Conghan Zheng","doi":"10.1093/jeg/lbae023","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbae023","url":null,"abstract":"We develop monthly asylum seeker flow forecasting models for 157 origin countries to the EU27, using machine learning and high-dimensional data, including digital trace data from Google Trends. Comparing different models and forecasting horizons and validating out-of-sample, we find that an ensemble forecast combining Random Forest and Extreme Gradient Boosting algorithms outperforms the random walk over horizons between 3 and 12 months. For large corridors, this holds in a parsimonious model exclusively based on Google Trends variables, which has the advantage of near real-time availability. We provide practical recommendations how our approach can enable ahead-of-period asylum seeker flow forecasting applications.","PeriodicalId":48251,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Geography","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141915170","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Luigi Buzzacchi, Antonio De Marco, Marcello Pagnini
This article offers new evidence on agglomeration economies by examining the link between total factor productivity (TFP) and employment density in Italy. We investigate whether and how the TFP–density nexus contributes to explaining a relevant share of the marked productivity gap between the northern and the southern Italian regions. We estimate TFP for a large sample of manufacturing firms and then aggregate it at the level of local labour market areas. We tackle the endogeneity issues stemming from the presence of omitted covariates and reverse causation with an innovative set of diagnostic tests and an instrumental variable approach that relies on geological and historical data. Our estimate of the TFP elasticity to the spatial concentration of economic activities is about 0.045, a magnitude comparable to those measured for other developed countries. We also show that no significant heterogeneity emerges in the intensity of agglomeration economies across the country and that the positive TFP difference in favour of the firms located in the North is not due to the tougher competition taking place in those areas.
{"title":"Agglomeration and the Italian North–South divide","authors":"Luigi Buzzacchi, Antonio De Marco, Marcello Pagnini","doi":"10.1093/jeg/lbae025","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbae025","url":null,"abstract":"This article offers new evidence on agglomeration economies by examining the link between total factor productivity (TFP) and employment density in Italy. We investigate whether and how the TFP–density nexus contributes to explaining a relevant share of the marked productivity gap between the northern and the southern Italian regions. We estimate TFP for a large sample of manufacturing firms and then aggregate it at the level of local labour market areas. We tackle the endogeneity issues stemming from the presence of omitted covariates and reverse causation with an innovative set of diagnostic tests and an instrumental variable approach that relies on geological and historical data. Our estimate of the TFP elasticity to the spatial concentration of economic activities is about 0.045, a magnitude comparable to those measured for other developed countries. We also show that no significant heterogeneity emerges in the intensity of agglomeration economies across the country and that the positive TFP difference in favour of the firms located in the North is not due to the tougher competition taking place in those areas.","PeriodicalId":48251,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Geography","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141910371","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Aidong Zhao, Huub Ploegmakers, Jan Rouwendal, Xianlei Ma
This article analyzes the role of production factor land in the production process. Using a novel dataset of 20,205 newly established firms in the Chinese manufacturing sector from 2007 to 2014, our production function estimates suggest the existence of a sizable gap (averaging 50 USD/m2) between the marginal productivity of land and its user cost. Basic economic theory suggests a possible relationship with China’s minimum investment intensity (MII) regulation. An analysis using changes in MII limits over time and the resulting discontinuities at county borders confirms that larger gaps are significantly associated with increases in MII limits. Thus, the results of this study suggest that MII regulation leads to allocative inefficiency of land.
{"title":"Land investment regulation and allocative efficiency: evidence from the Chinese manufacturing sector","authors":"Aidong Zhao, Huub Ploegmakers, Jan Rouwendal, Xianlei Ma","doi":"10.1093/jeg/lbae024","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbae024","url":null,"abstract":"This article analyzes the role of production factor land in the production process. Using a novel dataset of 20,205 newly established firms in the Chinese manufacturing sector from 2007 to 2014, our production function estimates suggest the existence of a sizable gap (averaging 50 USD/m2) between the marginal productivity of land and its user cost. Basic economic theory suggests a possible relationship with China’s minimum investment intensity (MII) regulation. An analysis using changes in MII limits over time and the resulting discontinuities at county borders confirms that larger gaps are significantly associated with increases in MII limits. Thus, the results of this study suggest that MII regulation leads to allocative inefficiency of land.","PeriodicalId":48251,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Geography","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141877373","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Between 2010 and 2019, the global number of forcibly displaced individuals doubled, prompting countries to sign migration deals. Under these agreements, transit or origin countries halt migrants in exchange for support. The 2017 Italy–Libya deal outsourced search and rescue operations in the Central Mediterranean to the Libyan Coast Guard (LCG), aiming to stop migrants from reaching Italy. Using a spatial difference-in-differences design, we find an increase in the probability of observing a deadly incident in areas patrolled by the LCG post-deal. Descriptive evidence suggests a shift in routes, diverting a significant portion of migration to the Western Mediterranean Route.
{"title":"Externalizing rescue operations at sea: The migration deal between Italy and Libya","authors":"Diego Zambiasi, Emanuele Albarosa","doi":"10.1093/jeg/lbae022","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbae022","url":null,"abstract":"Between 2010 and 2019, the global number of forcibly displaced individuals doubled, prompting countries to sign migration deals. Under these agreements, transit or origin countries halt migrants in exchange for support. The 2017 Italy–Libya deal outsourced search and rescue operations in the Central Mediterranean to the Libyan Coast Guard (LCG), aiming to stop migrants from reaching Italy. Using a spatial difference-in-differences design, we find an increase in the probability of observing a deadly incident in areas patrolled by the LCG post-deal. Descriptive evidence suggests a shift in routes, diverting a significant portion of migration to the Western Mediterranean Route.","PeriodicalId":48251,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Geography","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-07-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141725902","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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