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Motherhood and the Gender Productivity Gap 母性与性别生产力差距
2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-10-23 DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvad064
Yana Gallen
Abstract Using Danish matched employer-employee data, I compare the relative pay of men and women to their relative productivity as measured by production function estimation. I find that the gender “productivity gap” is 8%, implying that almost two thirds of the residual gender wage gap is due to productivity differences between men and women. Motherhood plays an important role, yet it also reveals a puzzle: the pay gap for mothers is entirely explained by productivity, whereas the gap for non-mothers is not. In addition, the decoupling of pay and productivity for women without children happens during their prime-child bearing years. These estimates are robust to a variety of specifications for the impact of observables on productivity, and robust to accounting for endogenous sorting of women into less productive firms using a control-function approach. This paper also provides estimates of the productivity gap across industries and occupations, finding the same general patterns for mothers compared to women without children within these subgroups.
使用丹麦匹配的雇主-雇员数据,我比较了男性和女性的相对工资和他们的相对生产力,通过生产函数估计来衡量。我发现性别“生产率差距”为8%,这意味着几乎三分之二的剩余性别工资差距是由于男女之间的生产率差异。母性扮演着重要的角色,但它也揭示了一个难题:母亲的收入差距完全可以用生产率来解释,而非母亲的收入差距却不能。此外,对于没有孩子的女性来说,工资和生产率的脱钩发生在她们的最佳生育年龄。这些估计对于可观察到的对生产率的影响的各种规格是稳健的,并且对于使用控制函数方法将妇女内生地分类到生产率较低的公司是稳健的。本文还提供了对不同行业和职业的生产率差距的估计,发现在这些子群体中,与没有孩子的女性相比,母亲的总体模式是相同的。
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引用次数: 1
Hard-to-Interpret Signals 难于理解的信号
2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-10-20 DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvad062
Larry G Epstein, Yoram Halevy
Abstract Decisions under uncertainty are often made with information whose interpretation is uncertain because multiple interpretations are possible. Individuals may perceive and handle uncertainty about interpretation differently and in ways that are not directly observable to a modeler. This paper identifies and experimentally examines behavior that can be interpreted as reflecting an individual’s attitude towards such uncertainty.
不确定性下的决策通常是根据信息做出的,而信息的解释是不确定的,因为可能有多种解释。个体可能以不同的方式感知和处理解释的不确定性,而建模者无法直接观察到这些不确定性。本文确定并实验检验了可以被解释为反映个人对这种不确定性的态度的行为。
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引用次数: 0
The Beauty of Uncertainty: The Rise of Insurance Contracts and Markets in Medieval Europe 不确定性之美:中世纪欧洲保险合同和市场的兴起
2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-10-16 DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvad059
Maristella Botticini, Pietro Buri, Massimo Marinacci
Abstract Maritime insurance developed in medieval Europe is the ancestor of all forms of insurance that appeared subsequently. We address the question of why modern insurance was first invented in medieval Europe, and neither earlier nor elsewhere. Drawing from insights from the literature on uncertainty aversion, we show that medieval merchants had to bear more frequently natural risks (they traveled longer distances) and new human risks with unknown probabilities (they faced unpredictable attacks by corsairs due to increased political fragmentation and commercial competition in Europe). The increased demand for protection in medieval seaborne trade met the supply of protection by a small group of wealthy merchants with a broad information network who could pool risks and profit from selling protection through a novel business device: the insurance contract. A new market—the market for insurance—was then born. Next, analyzing more than seven thousand insurance contracts redacted by notaries and about one hundred court proceedings housed in the archives of Barcelona, Florence, Genoa, Palermo, Prato, and Venice, we study the main features of medieval trade, the type of risks faced by merchants, and the characteristics of insurance contracts and markets from 1340 to 1500. The empirical analysis delivers two main findings. First, risks related to human activities (e.g., attacks by corsairs) seem to have had a relatively greater impact on insurance premia compared to natural risks (proxied by seasonal risks). Second, distance mattered but the route seems to have had a greater impact on insurance premia. Specific routes (e.g., in the Tyrrenian and the western Mediterranean) were more plagued by human risks, which were harder to avoid for the majority of merchants who did not have a broad information network compared to the few wealthy merchants, who became the key players in selling insurance in the early stages of the development of insurance markets.
中世纪欧洲发展起来的海上保险是后来出现的各种保险形式的鼻祖。我们要解决的问题是,为什么现代保险最早是在中世纪的欧洲发明的,而不是更早,也不是其他地方。根据文献对不确定性厌恶的见解,我们表明中世纪商人必须承受更频繁的自然风险(他们要走更远的距离)和未知概率的新人类风险(由于欧洲政治分裂和商业竞争加剧,他们面临不可预测的海盗袭击)。中世纪海上贸易对保护的需求不断增加,满足了一小群富有的商人提供的保护,他们拥有广泛的信息网络,可以通过一种新颖的商业手段——保险合同——来集中风险,并从出售保护中获利。一个新的市场——保险市场——由此诞生。接下来,我们分析了由公证人编辑的7000多份保险合同,以及巴塞罗那、佛罗伦萨、热那亚、巴勒莫、普拉托和威尼斯档案馆中保存的大约100份法庭诉讼,研究了中世纪贸易的主要特征、商人面临的风险类型,以及1340年至1500年间保险合同和市场的特征。实证分析提供了两个主要发现。首先,与自然风险(以季节性风险为代表)相比,与人类活动有关的风险(例如海盗袭击)似乎对保险费产生了相对更大的影响。其次,距离很重要,但路线似乎对保险费的影响更大。特定路线(例如,在第勒尼和西地中海)更容易受到人为风险的困扰,对于大多数没有广泛信息网络的商人来说,与少数富有的商人相比,这些商人在保险市场发展的早期阶段成为销售保险的主要参与者。
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引用次数: 0
Behavioral Macroeconomics VIA Sparse Dynamic Programming 基于稀疏动态规划的行为宏观经济学
2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-10-11 DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvad057
Xavier Gabaix
Abstract This paper proposes a tractable way to model boundedly rational dynamic programming. The agent uses an endogenously simplified, or “sparse,” model of the world and the consequences of his actions and acts according to a behavioral Bellman equation. The framework yields a behavioral version of some of the canonical models in macroeconomics and finance. In the life-cycle model, the agent initially does not pay much attention to retirement and undersaves; late in life, he progressively saves more, generating realistic dynamics. In the consumption-savings model, the consumer decides to pay little or no attention to the interest rate and more attention to his income. Ricardian equivalence and the Lucas critique partially fail because the consumer may not pay full attention to taxes and policy changes. In a Merton-style dynamic portfolio choice problem, the agent endogenously pays limited or no attention to the varying equity premium and hedging demand terms. Finally, in the neoclassical growth model, agents act on a simplified model of the macroeconomy; in equilibrium, fluctuations are larger and more persistent.
提出了一种易于处理的有界理性动态规划建模方法。代理使用一个内生性简化的,或“稀疏”的模型,世界和他的行为和行为的后果,根据行为Bellman方程。该框架产生了宏观经济学和金融学中一些经典模型的行为版本。在生命周期模型中,agent最初不太关注退休和储蓄不足;在生命的后期,他逐渐储蓄更多,产生现实的动态。在消费-储蓄模型中,消费者决定很少或不关注利率,而更关注自己的收入。李嘉图等价理论和卢卡斯批判在一定程度上是失败的,因为消费者可能不会完全关注税收和政策变化。在默顿型动态投资组合选择问题中,代理人内生地对股票溢价和套期保值需求条件的变化关注有限或不关注。最后,在新古典增长模型中,经济主体根据一个简化的宏观经济模型行动;在均衡状态下,波动更大、更持久。
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引用次数: 0
The Effect of Social Media on Elections: Evidence from the United States 社交媒体对选举的影响:来自美国的证据
2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-10-11 DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvad058
Thomas Fujiwara, Karsten Müller, Carlo Schwarz
Abstract We study how social media affects election outcomes in the United States. We use variation in the number of Twitter users across counties induced by early adopters at the 2007 South by Southwest (SXSW) festival, a key event in Twitter’s rise to popularity. We show that this variation is unrelated to observable county characteristics and electoral outcomes before the launch of Twitter. Our results indicate that Twitter lowered the Republican vote share in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, but had limited effects on Congressional elections and previous presidential elections. Evidence from survey data, primary elections, and text analysis of millions of tweets suggests that Twitter’s relatively liberal content may have persuaded voters with moderate views to vote against Donald Trump.
我们研究社交媒体如何影响美国的选举结果。我们使用了2007年西南偏南音乐节(SXSW)早期采用者引起的不同国家Twitter用户数量的变化,这是Twitter流行起来的关键事件。我们表明,在Twitter推出之前,这种变化与可观察到的县特征和选举结果无关。我们的研究结果表明,推特在2016年和2020年的总统选举中降低了共和党的选票份额,但对国会选举和之前的总统选举的影响有限。来自调查数据、初选和对数百万条推文的文本分析的证据表明,推特上相对自由的内容可能说服了持温和观点的选民投票反对唐纳德·特朗普。
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引用次数: 0
Inattention and the Taxation Bias 疏忽和税收偏见
2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-10-06 DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvad056
Jérémy Boccanfuso, Antoine Ferey
Abstract This paper shows that inattention to taxes generates a time-inconsistency problem in the choice of tax policy, leading to higher taxes in equilibrium. These discretionary tax increases are inefficient as they are deviations from the socially optimal commitment policy. We call these deviations a taxation bias. Combining sufficient statistics and structural approaches, we quantify the magnitude of this policy distortion for the U.S. redistributive tax-transfer system. We find that the taxation bias ranges between 3 and 8 percentage points, alters tax-transfer progressivity, and has significant welfare effects. Overall, our findings shed new light on the implications of inattention and misperceptions.
摘要本文研究了税收不关注在税收政策选择中产生的时间不一致性问题,从而导致均衡下的高税收。这些可自由支配的增税是低效的,因为它们偏离了社会最优承诺政策。我们称这些偏差为税收偏见。结合充分的统计数据和结构方法,我们量化了美国再分配税收转移系统的这种政策扭曲的程度。我们发现,税收偏差在3到8个百分点之间,改变了税收转移累进性,并具有显著的福利效应。总的来说,我们的发现揭示了注意力不集中和误解的含义。
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引用次数: 0
Pessimism, Disagreement, and Economic Fluctuations 悲观、分歧和经济波动
2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvad055
Guangyu Pei
Abstract The pessimistic bias and the cross-sectional dispersion of households’ subjective beliefs heighten during recessions. We provide empirical evidence for a dominant non-inflationary aggregate demand shock that accounts for the bulk of business-cycle fluctuations not only in real quantities but also in (1) pessimism—to what degree households are more pessimistic than the rational expectation benchmark and (2) disagreement—the cross-sectional dispersion of households’ beliefs. To rationalize the empirical findings, this paper develops a theory of ambiguity-driven business cycles, where the Bayesian formulation of the ambiguity shock can generate positive co-movements across real quantities together with counter-cyclical pessimism and disagreement within the real business-cycle framework. Our theory reproduces the salient features of the business cycles extended with survey data on households’ expectations. Quantitatively, the ambiguity shock alone accounts for a significant fraction of the business-cycle fluctuations in pessimism, disagreement, and real quantities.
经济衰退期间,家庭主观信念的悲观偏差和横截面离散度加剧。我们为主要的非通胀性总需求冲击提供了经验证据,该冲击不仅在实际数量上,而且在(1)悲观(家庭比理性预期基准更悲观的程度)和(2)分歧(家庭信念的横截面分散)方面解释了大部分商业周期波动。为了使实证结果合理化,本文发展了一种模糊驱动的商业周期理论,其中模糊冲击的贝叶斯公式可以在实际数量上产生积极的协同运动,以及反周期悲观主义和真实商业周期框架内的分歧。我们的理论通过对家庭预期的调查数据再现了商业周期的显著特征。从数量上讲,仅模糊性冲击就占了悲观主义、分歧和实际数量的商业周期波动的很大一部分。
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引用次数: 0
Trade Disruption, Industrialisation, and the Setting Sun of British Colonial Rule in India 贸易中断、工业化和英国在印度殖民统治的夕阳
2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-10-01 DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvad054
Roberto Bonfatti, Björn Brey
Abstract Colonial trade prompted the colonies to specialise in primary products. Did this eliminate industrialisation opportunities in the colonies, and did it make them more politically dependent on the coloniser? To answer these questions, we examine the impact of the World War I trade shock on industrial growth and support for the anti-colonial movement in India. We find that districts more exposed to a drop in imports experienced faster industrial growth in 1911–1921, thereafter remaining on a higher level of industrial employment. All evidence points to an increase in Indian productivities as the reason for this, suggesting that liberal trade policies may not have been optimal for colonial India. We also find that districts, which industrialised faster thanks to WWI were more likely to support the Indian National Congress. This is consistent with the view that specialisation in primary products made the colonies more politically dependent on the coloniser.
殖民地贸易促使殖民地专门生产初级产品。这是否消除了殖民地的工业化机会,是否使他们在政治上更加依赖殖民者?为了回答这些问题,我们研究了第一次世界大战对印度工业增长和反殖民运动支持的贸易冲击的影响。我们发现,受进口下降影响较大的地区在1911-1921年间工业增长较快,此后工业就业水平较高。所有证据都表明,印度生产率的提高是造成这种情况的原因,这表明,自由贸易政策对殖民时期的印度来说可能不是最理想的。我们还发现,由于第一次世界大战而工业化更快的地区更有可能支持印度国民大会党。这与一种观点是一致的,即初级产品的专业化使殖民地在政治上更加依赖殖民者。
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引用次数: 0
The Importance of Modeling Income Taxes Over Time: U.S. Reforms and Outcomes 所得税长期建模的重要性:美国的改革和结果
2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-15 DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvad053
Margherita Borella, Mariacristina De Nardi, Michael Pak, Nicolo Russo, Fang Yang
Abstract The structure of taxes and their burden have undergone large and frequent changes over time. We provide a brief history of U.S. federal income tax reform since the 1960s, calculate effective federal income tax rates for each wave of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, and discuss how effective taxation changed from 1969 to 2016. We show that most tax regimes are short-lived and that the variation in taxes over time and across groups is large. We also use an estimated dynamic model of couples and singles to show that the various tax regimes that we estimate imply very different labor market and saving behavior. These findings stress the importance of studying and modeling tax changes over time and across groups.
随着时间的推移,税收结构及其负担经历了巨大而频繁的变化。我们提供了自20世纪60年代以来美国联邦所得税改革的简史,计算了每一波收入动态小组研究的有效联邦所得税税率,并讨论了有效税收从1969年到2016年的变化。我们表明,大多数税收制度都是短暂的,税收随时间和不同群体的差异很大。我们还使用一对夫妇和单身人士的估计动态模型来表明,我们估计的各种税收制度意味着非常不同的劳动力市场和储蓄行为。这些发现强调了研究和模拟跨时间和跨群体税收变化的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Traumatic Experiences Adversely Affect Life Cycle Labor Market Outcomes of the Next Generation - Evidence from Wwii Nazi Raids 创伤性经历对下一代的生命周期劳动力市场结果有不利影响——来自二战纳粹袭击的证据
2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2023-09-05 DOI: 10.1093/jeea/jvad052
Vincenzo Atella, Edoardo Di Porto, Joanna Kopinska, Maarten Lindeboom
Abstract This paper examines the causal effect of a traumatic event experienced by pregnant women on the life-long labor market outcomes of their offspring. We exploit a unique natural experiment that involved randomly placed Nazi raids in municipalities in Italy during WWII. We link administrative data on male private sector workers to information about Nazi raids and war casualties. Our results suggest that prenatal exposure to traumatic events affects offspring earnings throughout the working career and in retirement. The lower earnings are due to lower educational attainment, the type of jobs held, and interruptions in working careers due to unemployment. We further find that prenatal exposure exacerbates the adverse effects of later-life job loss on earnings. We use a medical database on health expenditures to interpret the effect estimates. The prenatally exposed have higher medical expenditures on diseases of the nervous system and mental disorders, indicating that stress is likely to be an important factor driving our findings.
摘要本文探讨了孕妇创伤性事件对其后代终身劳动力市场结果的因果影响。我们利用了一个独特的自然实验,在二战期间,纳粹随机袭击了意大利的各个城市。我们将私营部门男性工人的行政数据与纳粹袭击和战争伤亡的信息联系起来。我们的研究结果表明,产前接触创伤性事件会影响后代在整个职业生涯和退休后的收入。较低的收入是由于较低的受教育程度,所从事的工作类型,以及由于失业而中断的工作生涯。我们进一步发现,产前暴露加剧了晚年失业对收入的不利影响。我们使用医疗支出的医疗数据库来解释效果估计。产前暴露的人在神经系统疾病和精神障碍方面的医疗支出更高,这表明压力可能是推动我们研究结果的重要因素。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of the European Economic Association
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