Abstract This paper shows that inattention to taxes generates a time-inconsistency problem in the choice of tax policy, leading to higher taxes in equilibrium. These discretionary tax increases are inefficient as they are deviations from the socially optimal commitment policy. We call these deviations a taxation bias. Combining sufficient statistics and structural approaches, we quantify the magnitude of this policy distortion for the U.S. redistributive tax-transfer system. We find that the taxation bias ranges between 3 and 8 percentage points, alters tax-transfer progressivity, and has significant welfare effects. Overall, our findings shed new light on the implications of inattention and misperceptions.
{"title":"Inattention and the Taxation Bias","authors":"Jérémy Boccanfuso, Antoine Ferey","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad056","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad056","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper shows that inattention to taxes generates a time-inconsistency problem in the choice of tax policy, leading to higher taxes in equilibrium. These discretionary tax increases are inefficient as they are deviations from the socially optimal commitment policy. We call these deviations a taxation bias. Combining sufficient statistics and structural approaches, we quantify the magnitude of this policy distortion for the U.S. redistributive tax-transfer system. We find that the taxation bias ranges between 3 and 8 percentage points, alters tax-transfer progressivity, and has significant welfare effects. Overall, our findings shed new light on the implications of inattention and misperceptions.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135302167","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The pessimistic bias and the cross-sectional dispersion of households’ subjective beliefs heighten during recessions. We provide empirical evidence for a dominant non-inflationary aggregate demand shock that accounts for the bulk of business-cycle fluctuations not only in real quantities but also in (1) pessimism—to what degree households are more pessimistic than the rational expectation benchmark and (2) disagreement—the cross-sectional dispersion of households’ beliefs. To rationalize the empirical findings, this paper develops a theory of ambiguity-driven business cycles, where the Bayesian formulation of the ambiguity shock can generate positive co-movements across real quantities together with counter-cyclical pessimism and disagreement within the real business-cycle framework. Our theory reproduces the salient features of the business cycles extended with survey data on households’ expectations. Quantitatively, the ambiguity shock alone accounts for a significant fraction of the business-cycle fluctuations in pessimism, disagreement, and real quantities.
{"title":"Pessimism, Disagreement, and Economic Fluctuations","authors":"Guangyu Pei","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad055","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad055","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The pessimistic bias and the cross-sectional dispersion of households’ subjective beliefs heighten during recessions. We provide empirical evidence for a dominant non-inflationary aggregate demand shock that accounts for the bulk of business-cycle fluctuations not only in real quantities but also in (1) pessimism—to what degree households are more pessimistic than the rational expectation benchmark and (2) disagreement—the cross-sectional dispersion of households’ beliefs. To rationalize the empirical findings, this paper develops a theory of ambiguity-driven business cycles, where the Bayesian formulation of the ambiguity shock can generate positive co-movements across real quantities together with counter-cyclical pessimism and disagreement within the real business-cycle framework. Our theory reproduces the salient features of the business cycles extended with survey data on households’ expectations. Quantitatively, the ambiguity shock alone accounts for a significant fraction of the business-cycle fluctuations in pessimism, disagreement, and real quantities.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135458560","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Colonial trade prompted the colonies to specialise in primary products. Did this eliminate industrialisation opportunities in the colonies, and did it make them more politically dependent on the coloniser? To answer these questions, we examine the impact of the World War I trade shock on industrial growth and support for the anti-colonial movement in India. We find that districts more exposed to a drop in imports experienced faster industrial growth in 1911–1921, thereafter remaining on a higher level of industrial employment. All evidence points to an increase in Indian productivities as the reason for this, suggesting that liberal trade policies may not have been optimal for colonial India. We also find that districts, which industrialised faster thanks to WWI were more likely to support the Indian National Congress. This is consistent with the view that specialisation in primary products made the colonies more politically dependent on the coloniser.
{"title":"Trade Disruption, Industrialisation, and the Setting Sun of British Colonial Rule in India","authors":"Roberto Bonfatti, Björn Brey","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad054","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad054","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Colonial trade prompted the colonies to specialise in primary products. Did this eliminate industrialisation opportunities in the colonies, and did it make them more politically dependent on the coloniser? To answer these questions, we examine the impact of the World War I trade shock on industrial growth and support for the anti-colonial movement in India. We find that districts more exposed to a drop in imports experienced faster industrial growth in 1911–1921, thereafter remaining on a higher level of industrial employment. All evidence points to an increase in Indian productivities as the reason for this, suggesting that liberal trade policies may not have been optimal for colonial India. We also find that districts, which industrialised faster thanks to WWI were more likely to support the Indian National Congress. This is consistent with the view that specialisation in primary products made the colonies more politically dependent on the coloniser.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136119566","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Margherita Borella, Mariacristina De Nardi, Michael Pak, Nicolo Russo, Fang Yang
Abstract The structure of taxes and their burden have undergone large and frequent changes over time. We provide a brief history of U.S. federal income tax reform since the 1960s, calculate effective federal income tax rates for each wave of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, and discuss how effective taxation changed from 1969 to 2016. We show that most tax regimes are short-lived and that the variation in taxes over time and across groups is large. We also use an estimated dynamic model of couples and singles to show that the various tax regimes that we estimate imply very different labor market and saving behavior. These findings stress the importance of studying and modeling tax changes over time and across groups.
{"title":"The Importance of Modeling Income Taxes Over Time: U.S. Reforms and Outcomes","authors":"Margherita Borella, Mariacristina De Nardi, Michael Pak, Nicolo Russo, Fang Yang","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad053","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad053","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The structure of taxes and their burden have undergone large and frequent changes over time. We provide a brief history of U.S. federal income tax reform since the 1960s, calculate effective federal income tax rates for each wave of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, and discuss how effective taxation changed from 1969 to 2016. We show that most tax regimes are short-lived and that the variation in taxes over time and across groups is large. We also use an estimated dynamic model of couples and singles to show that the various tax regimes that we estimate imply very different labor market and saving behavior. These findings stress the importance of studying and modeling tax changes over time and across groups.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135438418","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Vincenzo Atella, Edoardo Di Porto, Joanna Kopinska, Maarten Lindeboom
Abstract This paper examines the causal effect of a traumatic event experienced by pregnant women on the life-long labor market outcomes of their offspring. We exploit a unique natural experiment that involved randomly placed Nazi raids in municipalities in Italy during WWII. We link administrative data on male private sector workers to information about Nazi raids and war casualties. Our results suggest that prenatal exposure to traumatic events affects offspring earnings throughout the working career and in retirement. The lower earnings are due to lower educational attainment, the type of jobs held, and interruptions in working careers due to unemployment. We further find that prenatal exposure exacerbates the adverse effects of later-life job loss on earnings. We use a medical database on health expenditures to interpret the effect estimates. The prenatally exposed have higher medical expenditures on diseases of the nervous system and mental disorders, indicating that stress is likely to be an important factor driving our findings.
{"title":"Traumatic Experiences Adversely Affect Life Cycle Labor Market Outcomes of the Next Generation - Evidence from Wwii Nazi Raids","authors":"Vincenzo Atella, Edoardo Di Porto, Joanna Kopinska, Maarten Lindeboom","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad052","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad052","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper examines the causal effect of a traumatic event experienced by pregnant women on the life-long labor market outcomes of their offspring. We exploit a unique natural experiment that involved randomly placed Nazi raids in municipalities in Italy during WWII. We link administrative data on male private sector workers to information about Nazi raids and war casualties. Our results suggest that prenatal exposure to traumatic events affects offspring earnings throughout the working career and in retirement. The lower earnings are due to lower educational attainment, the type of jobs held, and interruptions in working careers due to unemployment. We further find that prenatal exposure exacerbates the adverse effects of later-life job loss on earnings. We use a medical database on health expenditures to interpret the effect estimates. The prenatally exposed have higher medical expenditures on diseases of the nervous system and mental disorders, indicating that stress is likely to be an important factor driving our findings.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135320060","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract To assess the life-cycle welfare effects of pension reforms, we provide a dynamic stochastic model of saving, portfolio choice, and retirement featuring a rich characterisation of the pension system. Relying on the exogenous variation from a sequence of Italian pension reforms, we identify and estimate the model, which is then used to draw implications of alternative pension policies. The validated model predicts substantial social security wealth effects on retirement, with the offset between public pension wealth and private savings softened when households can adjust their retirement decisions. We further find important distributional effects of pension reforms, with households’ welfare decreasing more the later in the working life they face the reform. Our findings have implications for the design of pension policies and the support they might generate.
{"title":"The Life-Cycle Effects of Pension Reforms: a Structural Approach","authors":"Claudio Daminato, Mario Padula","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad049","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad049","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract To assess the life-cycle welfare effects of pension reforms, we provide a dynamic stochastic model of saving, portfolio choice, and retirement featuring a rich characterisation of the pension system. Relying on the exogenous variation from a sequence of Italian pension reforms, we identify and estimate the model, which is then used to draw implications of alternative pension policies. The validated model predicts substantial social security wealth effects on retirement, with the offset between public pension wealth and private savings softened when households can adjust their retirement decisions. We further find important distributional effects of pension reforms, with households’ welfare decreasing more the later in the working life they face the reform. Our findings have implications for the design of pension policies and the support they might generate.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135205540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract To better understand institutional differences across space and time, we propose a two-dimensional framework of the power structure among three players in society: the degree of absolute power of the Ruler over the Elites and the People, and the degree of asymmetry between the latter two in terms of their everyday rights and power. Within this framework, we show that a more absolutist Ruler prefers a more balanced Elite-People relationship. This theory helps in particular to reconcile views on the comparison between imperial China and premodern Europe that would seem contradictory in one-dimensional or two-estate frameworks: the Ruler’s absolute power was weaker in Europe, whereas the Elite-People relationship was more balanced in China. Our approach also helps more generally to interpret specific institutions and other variations in power structures.
{"title":"A Theory of Power Structure and Institutional Compatibility: China vs. Europe Revisited","authors":"Ruixue Jia, Gérard Roland, Yang Xie","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad050","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad050","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract To better understand institutional differences across space and time, we propose a two-dimensional framework of the power structure among three players in society: the degree of absolute power of the Ruler over the Elites and the People, and the degree of asymmetry between the latter two in terms of their everyday rights and power. Within this framework, we show that a more absolutist Ruler prefers a more balanced Elite-People relationship. This theory helps in particular to reconcile views on the comparison between imperial China and premodern Europe that would seem contradictory in one-dimensional or two-estate frameworks: the Ruler’s absolute power was weaker in Europe, whereas the Elite-People relationship was more balanced in China. Our approach also helps more generally to interpret specific institutions and other variations in power structures.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135205443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract As children transition to adulthood, do they remain a major determinant of parental labor supply? To answer this question, we examine how college costs affect the labor supply of mothers and fathers by exploiting the roll-out of nine generous state merit aid programs in the United States from 1993 to 2004, which made college more affordable. Mothers of college-age children decreased their annual hours of work after the introduction of these state-wide programs, while fathers did not adjust their labor supply. Mothers of college-going children were entirely responsible for the decline in hours of work, where mothers of children who did not go to college experienced no change in hours of work. The decline in labor supply was mainly due to adjustments among high-income, married, more educated, and white mothers, whose labor supply was more elastic to college costs.
{"title":"Time to Grow UP? Adult Children as Determinants of Parental Labor Supply","authors":"Breno Braga, Olga Malkova","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad051","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract As children transition to adulthood, do they remain a major determinant of parental labor supply? To answer this question, we examine how college costs affect the labor supply of mothers and fathers by exploiting the roll-out of nine generous state merit aid programs in the United States from 1993 to 2004, which made college more affordable. Mothers of college-age children decreased their annual hours of work after the introduction of these state-wide programs, while fathers did not adjust their labor supply. Mothers of college-going children were entirely responsible for the decline in hours of work, where mothers of children who did not go to college experienced no change in hours of work. The decline in labor supply was mainly due to adjustments among high-income, married, more educated, and white mothers, whose labor supply was more elastic to college costs.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135452281","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pierre Cahuca, Stéphane Carcillo, Berengere Patault, Flavien Moreau
Abstract This paper documents the existence of judge-specific differences on granting compensation for wrongful dismissal and shows that their consequences are different for small low-performing firms than for other firms. Pro-worker judge bias reduces job creation for all firms, increases the destruction of permanent jobs in small and low-performing firms but reduces it in large high-performing firms. Pro-worker bias reduces employment and survival for small and low-performing firms but has no significant effects on these outcomes for the other firms. The probability that permanent incumbent workers keep their job in firms judged by a pro-worker judge increases in large and high-performing firms, while it decreases in small, poorly performing firms.
{"title":"Judge Bias in Labor Courts and Firm Performance","authors":"Pierre Cahuca, Stéphane Carcillo, Berengere Patault, Flavien Moreau","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad046","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad046","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper documents the existence of judge-specific differences on granting compensation for wrongful dismissal and shows that their consequences are different for small low-performing firms than for other firms. Pro-worker judge bias reduces job creation for all firms, increases the destruction of permanent jobs in small and low-performing firms but reduces it in large high-performing firms. Pro-worker bias reduces employment and survival for small and low-performing firms but has no significant effects on these outcomes for the other firms. The probability that permanent incumbent workers keep their job in firms judged by a pro-worker judge increases in large and high-performing firms, while it decreases in small, poorly performing firms.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135894824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract With relational contracts, increased uncertainty with no change in factor prices is shown to reduce investment in the long run even if the parties are risk neutral. This contrasts with models based on the impact of financial risk on the cost of capital and on the option value arising from irreversible investment. For the latter, Bloom et al. (Econometrica, 2018) find that a negative first-moment shock, in addition to increased uncertainty, best matches the data. This paper develops a relational contract model to demonstrate the impact of uncertainty on investment, depending on whether investment is general or specific. It then uses a specification calibrated with parameters from Bloom et al. (Econometrica, 2018) to show that this model can generate effects on productivity and investment of the magnitude of the negative aggregate shock in that paper purely with an increase in uncertainty.
{"title":"Uncertainty, Investment and Productivity with Relational Contracts","authors":"James Malcomson","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad048","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract With relational contracts, increased uncertainty with no change in factor prices is shown to reduce investment in the long run even if the parties are risk neutral. This contrasts with models based on the impact of financial risk on the cost of capital and on the option value arising from irreversible investment. For the latter, Bloom et al. (Econometrica, 2018) find that a negative first-moment shock, in addition to increased uncertainty, best matches the data. This paper develops a relational contract model to demonstrate the impact of uncertainty on investment, depending on whether investment is general or specific. It then uses a specification calibrated with parameters from Bloom et al. (Econometrica, 2018) to show that this model can generate effects on productivity and investment of the magnitude of the negative aggregate shock in that paper purely with an increase in uncertainty.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135896059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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