Abstract To assess the life-cycle welfare effects of pension reforms, we provide a dynamic stochastic model of saving, portfolio choice, and retirement featuring a rich characterisation of the pension system. Relying on the exogenous variation from a sequence of Italian pension reforms, we identify and estimate the model, which is then used to draw implications of alternative pension policies. The validated model predicts substantial social security wealth effects on retirement, with the offset between public pension wealth and private savings softened when households can adjust their retirement decisions. We further find important distributional effects of pension reforms, with households’ welfare decreasing more the later in the working life they face the reform. Our findings have implications for the design of pension policies and the support they might generate.
{"title":"The Life-Cycle Effects of Pension Reforms: a Structural Approach","authors":"Claudio Daminato, Mario Padula","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad049","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad049","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract To assess the life-cycle welfare effects of pension reforms, we provide a dynamic stochastic model of saving, portfolio choice, and retirement featuring a rich characterisation of the pension system. Relying on the exogenous variation from a sequence of Italian pension reforms, we identify and estimate the model, which is then used to draw implications of alternative pension policies. The validated model predicts substantial social security wealth effects on retirement, with the offset between public pension wealth and private savings softened when households can adjust their retirement decisions. We further find important distributional effects of pension reforms, with households’ welfare decreasing more the later in the working life they face the reform. Our findings have implications for the design of pension policies and the support they might generate.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":"54 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135205540","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract To better understand institutional differences across space and time, we propose a two-dimensional framework of the power structure among three players in society: the degree of absolute power of the Ruler over the Elites and the People, and the degree of asymmetry between the latter two in terms of their everyday rights and power. Within this framework, we show that a more absolutist Ruler prefers a more balanced Elite-People relationship. This theory helps in particular to reconcile views on the comparison between imperial China and premodern Europe that would seem contradictory in one-dimensional or two-estate frameworks: the Ruler’s absolute power was weaker in Europe, whereas the Elite-People relationship was more balanced in China. Our approach also helps more generally to interpret specific institutions and other variations in power structures.
{"title":"A Theory of Power Structure and Institutional Compatibility: China vs. Europe Revisited","authors":"Ruixue Jia, Gérard Roland, Yang Xie","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad050","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad050","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract To better understand institutional differences across space and time, we propose a two-dimensional framework of the power structure among three players in society: the degree of absolute power of the Ruler over the Elites and the People, and the degree of asymmetry between the latter two in terms of their everyday rights and power. Within this framework, we show that a more absolutist Ruler prefers a more balanced Elite-People relationship. This theory helps in particular to reconcile views on the comparison between imperial China and premodern Europe that would seem contradictory in one-dimensional or two-estate frameworks: the Ruler’s absolute power was weaker in Europe, whereas the Elite-People relationship was more balanced in China. Our approach also helps more generally to interpret specific institutions and other variations in power structures.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135205443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract As children transition to adulthood, do they remain a major determinant of parental labor supply? To answer this question, we examine how college costs affect the labor supply of mothers and fathers by exploiting the roll-out of nine generous state merit aid programs in the United States from 1993 to 2004, which made college more affordable. Mothers of college-age children decreased their annual hours of work after the introduction of these state-wide programs, while fathers did not adjust their labor supply. Mothers of college-going children were entirely responsible for the decline in hours of work, where mothers of children who did not go to college experienced no change in hours of work. The decline in labor supply was mainly due to adjustments among high-income, married, more educated, and white mothers, whose labor supply was more elastic to college costs.
{"title":"Time to Grow UP? Adult Children as Determinants of Parental Labor Supply","authors":"Breno Braga, Olga Malkova","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad051","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract As children transition to adulthood, do they remain a major determinant of parental labor supply? To answer this question, we examine how college costs affect the labor supply of mothers and fathers by exploiting the roll-out of nine generous state merit aid programs in the United States from 1993 to 2004, which made college more affordable. Mothers of college-age children decreased their annual hours of work after the introduction of these state-wide programs, while fathers did not adjust their labor supply. Mothers of college-going children were entirely responsible for the decline in hours of work, where mothers of children who did not go to college experienced no change in hours of work. The decline in labor supply was mainly due to adjustments among high-income, married, more educated, and white mothers, whose labor supply was more elastic to college costs.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":"19 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135452281","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pierre Cahuca, Stéphane Carcillo, Berengere Patault, Flavien Moreau
Abstract This paper documents the existence of judge-specific differences on granting compensation for wrongful dismissal and shows that their consequences are different for small low-performing firms than for other firms. Pro-worker judge bias reduces job creation for all firms, increases the destruction of permanent jobs in small and low-performing firms but reduces it in large high-performing firms. Pro-worker bias reduces employment and survival for small and low-performing firms but has no significant effects on these outcomes for the other firms. The probability that permanent incumbent workers keep their job in firms judged by a pro-worker judge increases in large and high-performing firms, while it decreases in small, poorly performing firms.
{"title":"Judge Bias in Labor Courts and Firm Performance","authors":"Pierre Cahuca, Stéphane Carcillo, Berengere Patault, Flavien Moreau","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad046","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad046","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper documents the existence of judge-specific differences on granting compensation for wrongful dismissal and shows that their consequences are different for small low-performing firms than for other firms. Pro-worker judge bias reduces job creation for all firms, increases the destruction of permanent jobs in small and low-performing firms but reduces it in large high-performing firms. Pro-worker bias reduces employment and survival for small and low-performing firms but has no significant effects on these outcomes for the other firms. The probability that permanent incumbent workers keep their job in firms judged by a pro-worker judge increases in large and high-performing firms, while it decreases in small, poorly performing firms.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135894824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract With relational contracts, increased uncertainty with no change in factor prices is shown to reduce investment in the long run even if the parties are risk neutral. This contrasts with models based on the impact of financial risk on the cost of capital and on the option value arising from irreversible investment. For the latter, Bloom et al. (Econometrica, 2018) find that a negative first-moment shock, in addition to increased uncertainty, best matches the data. This paper develops a relational contract model to demonstrate the impact of uncertainty on investment, depending on whether investment is general or specific. It then uses a specification calibrated with parameters from Bloom et al. (Econometrica, 2018) to show that this model can generate effects on productivity and investment of the magnitude of the negative aggregate shock in that paper purely with an increase in uncertainty.
{"title":"Uncertainty, Investment and Productivity with Relational Contracts","authors":"James Malcomson","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad048","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad048","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract With relational contracts, increased uncertainty with no change in factor prices is shown to reduce investment in the long run even if the parties are risk neutral. This contrasts with models based on the impact of financial risk on the cost of capital and on the option value arising from irreversible investment. For the latter, Bloom et al. (Econometrica, 2018) find that a negative first-moment shock, in addition to increased uncertainty, best matches the data. This paper develops a relational contract model to demonstrate the impact of uncertainty on investment, depending on whether investment is general or specific. It then uses a specification calibrated with parameters from Bloom et al. (Econometrica, 2018) to show that this model can generate effects on productivity and investment of the magnitude of the negative aggregate shock in that paper purely with an increase in uncertainty.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135896059","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Elin Halvorsen, Hans A Holter, Serdar Ozkan, Kjetil Storesletten
Abstract This paper examines whether nonlinear and non-Gaussian features of earnings dynamics are caused by hours or hourly wages. Our findings from the Norwegian administrative and survey data are as follows: (i) Nonlinear mean reversion in earnings is driven by the dynamics of hours worked rather than wages since wage dynamics are close to linear, while hours dynamics are nonlinear—negative changes to hours are transitory, while positive changes are persistent. (ii) Large earnings changes are driven equally by hours and wages, whereas small changes are associated mainly with wage shocks. (iii) Both wages and hours contribute to negative skewness and high kurtosis for earnings changes, although hour-wage interactions are quantitatively more important. (iv) When considering household earnings and disposable household income, the deviations from normality are mitigated relative to individual labor earnings: changes in disposable household income are approximately symmetric and less leptokurtic.
{"title":"Dissecting Idiosyncratic Earnings Risk","authors":"Elin Halvorsen, Hans A Holter, Serdar Ozkan, Kjetil Storesletten","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad047","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad047","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper examines whether nonlinear and non-Gaussian features of earnings dynamics are caused by hours or hourly wages. Our findings from the Norwegian administrative and survey data are as follows: (i) Nonlinear mean reversion in earnings is driven by the dynamics of hours worked rather than wages since wage dynamics are close to linear, while hours dynamics are nonlinear—negative changes to hours are transitory, while positive changes are persistent. (ii) Large earnings changes are driven equally by hours and wages, whereas small changes are associated mainly with wage shocks. (iii) Both wages and hours contribute to negative skewness and high kurtosis for earnings changes, although hour-wage interactions are quantitatively more important. (iv) When considering household earnings and disposable household income, the deviations from normality are mitigated relative to individual labor earnings: changes in disposable household income are approximately symmetric and less leptokurtic.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134931136","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Reflecting on the First 20 Years of the Journal of the European Economic Association","authors":"Romain Wacziarg","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad045","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad045","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46011057","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper, we develop a life cycle model that features pecuniary and non-pecuniary investments in health in order to rationalize the socioeconomic gradients in health and life expectancy in the United States. Agents accumulate health capital, which affects labor productivity, utility, the distribution of medical spending shocks, and life expectancy. We find that unequal health insurance coverage plays a negligible role in generating the observed gaps in health and longevity. Universal health insurance increases preventive medical spending but not time spent in health promoting activities, as individuals are no longer worried about avoiding high curative medical expenditure shocks due to increased health insurance coverage. Our findings suggest that differences in lifetime income, preferences and health shocks are the main determinants of inequality in life expectancy.
{"title":"Can Wealth Buy Health? A Model of Pecuniary and Non-Pecuniary Investments in Health","authors":"Panos Margaris, Johanna Wallenius","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad044","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad044","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 In this paper, we develop a life cycle model that features pecuniary and non-pecuniary investments in health in order to rationalize the socioeconomic gradients in health and life expectancy in the United States. Agents accumulate health capital, which affects labor productivity, utility, the distribution of medical spending shocks, and life expectancy. We find that unequal health insurance coverage plays a negligible role in generating the observed gaps in health and longevity. Universal health insurance increases preventive medical spending but not time spent in health promoting activities, as individuals are no longer worried about avoiding high curative medical expenditure shocks due to increased health insurance coverage. Our findings suggest that differences in lifetime income, preferences and health shocks are the main determinants of inequality in life expectancy.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-08-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48937441","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A. Chevalier, Benjamin Elsner, Andreas Lichter, Nico Pestely
We study the effect of forced migration on public policy setting in the migrant-receiving country. After World War II, eight million expelled Germans arrived in West Germany within five years. We use regional variation in the population share of forced migrants across West German cities to estimate the effect of this inflow on cities’ taxation and spending decisions. To identify a causal effect, we pursue an instrumental variable strategy that leverages push factors of the expulsions while being orthogonal to local conditions in the destination regions. Our results show that cities with high inflows of forced migrants increased spending on welfare and education, decreased spending on infrastructure, raised local taxes, and incurred more debt. Part of these effects can be attributed to shifts in political preferences. The migrants held voting rights upon arrival and supported parties that explicitly catered to their interests and needs.
{"title":"Forced Migration and Local Public Policies: Evidence from Post-War West Germany","authors":"A. Chevalier, Benjamin Elsner, Andreas Lichter, Nico Pestely","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad043","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad043","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We study the effect of forced migration on public policy setting in the migrant-receiving country. After World War II, eight million expelled Germans arrived in West Germany within five years. We use regional variation in the population share of forced migrants across West German cities to estimate the effect of this inflow on cities’ taxation and spending decisions. To identify a causal effect, we pursue an instrumental variable strategy that leverages push factors of the expulsions while being orthogonal to local conditions in the destination regions. Our results show that cities with high inflows of forced migrants increased spending on welfare and education, decreased spending on infrastructure, raised local taxes, and incurred more debt. Part of these effects can be attributed to shifts in political preferences. The migrants held voting rights upon arrival and supported parties that explicitly catered to their interests and needs.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-07-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47693646","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Standard economic models view risk taking and time discounting as two independent dimensions of decision making. However, mounting experimental evidence demonstrates striking parallels in patterns of risk taking and time discounting behavior and systematic interaction effects, which suggests that there may be common underlying forces driving these interactions. Here we show that the inherent uncertainty associated with future prospects together with individuals’ proneness to probability weighting generates a unifying framework for explaining a large number of puzzling behavioral findings: delay-dependent risk tolerance, aversion to sequential resolution of uncertainty, preferences for the timing of the resolution of uncertainty, the differential discounting of risky and certain outcomes, hyperbolic discounting, subadditive discounting, and the order dependence of prospect valuation. Furthermore, all these phenomena can be accommodated by the same set of preference parameter values and plausible levels of inherent uncertainty.
{"title":"Risk in Time: The Intertwined Nature of Risk Taking and Time Discounting","authors":"Thomas Epper, Helga Fehr-Duda","doi":"10.1093/jeea/jvad041","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvad041","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 Standard economic models view risk taking and time discounting as two independent dimensions of decision making. However, mounting experimental evidence demonstrates striking parallels in patterns of risk taking and time discounting behavior and systematic interaction effects, which suggests that there may be common underlying forces driving these interactions. Here we show that the inherent uncertainty associated with future prospects together with individuals’ proneness to probability weighting generates a unifying framework for explaining a large number of puzzling behavioral findings: delay-dependent risk tolerance, aversion to sequential resolution of uncertainty, preferences for the timing of the resolution of uncertainty, the differential discounting of risky and certain outcomes, hyperbolic discounting, subadditive discounting, and the order dependence of prospect valuation. Furthermore, all these phenomena can be accommodated by the same set of preference parameter values and plausible levels of inherent uncertainty.","PeriodicalId":48297,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the European Economic Association","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.6,"publicationDate":"2023-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48789853","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：