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Hitting the bullseye: Accurately measuring willingness to pay for innovations with open and closed direct questions 正中靶心:用开放式和封闭式直接问题准确衡量创新的支付意愿
IF 7 2区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijresmar.2023.12.003
Jonas Schmidt , Michael Steiner , Manfred Krafft , Nadine Eckel , Darren W. Dahl

Knowledge of a customer’s willingness to pay (WTP) at early stages of product development is key to the success of innovations. However, since innovative products do not exist yet, only the hypothetical WTP can be surveyed, inducing a measurement bias. Unfortunately, little is known about the factors that induce this bias and how it differs depending on the method utilized in measuring WTP. We address this gap by focusing on direct methods to survey hypothetical WTP. Based on anchoring theory and the corresponding psychological mechanisms for open questions as well as closed questions, we conducted two experiments, each comprised of a survey and a field study. The experiments differ regarding the product category and the product’s degree of innovativeness. Our results show that open questions are less accurate in estimating real WTP than closed questions. Further, our research offers insights into moderating factors that influence the efficacy of open and closed questions. For example, for customers with a very high product category knowledge, open questions are applicable, while closed questions result in higher accuracy when accounting for the customers’ cognitive abilities.

在产品开发的早期阶段了解客户的支付意愿(WTP)是创新成功的关键。然而,由于创新产品尚不存在,因此只能对假设的 WTP 进行调查,从而产生测量偏差。遗憾的是,人们对导致这种偏差的因素以及偏差因测量 WTP 所用方法的不同而产生的差异知之甚少。为了弥补这一不足,我们重点研究了调查假设 WTP 的直接方法。基于锚定理论以及开放式问题和封闭式问题的相应心理机制,我们进行了两项实验,每项实验都包括一项调查和一项实地研究。实验的产品类别和产品的创新程度各不相同。我们的结果表明,开放式问题在估算真实 WTP 方面不如封闭式问题准确。此外,我们的研究还对影响开放式问题和封闭式问题效果的调节因素提出了见解。例如,对于产品类别知识非常丰富的客户,开放式问题是适用的,而考虑到客户的认知能力,封闭式问题的准确性更高。
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引用次数: 0
Enhanced sales forecasting model using textual search data: Fusing dynamics with big data 利用文本搜索数据增强销售预测模型:动态与大数据的融合
IF 7 2区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-05-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijresmar.2024.05.007
Abhishek Borah, Oliver Rutz
Forecasting sales is an essential marketing function, and, for most businesses, sales are driven by own and competitive activities. Most firms use their own marketing efforts or a selection of their competitor’s marketing efforts for forecasting sales. Due to data availability limitations, data on the full set of competitors are rarely used when forecasting sales. The emergence of online search data provides access to a novel data source on own as well as never-before observed competitive activities. We propose a novel regularized dynamic forecasting model utilizing all available competitive search data in a market vs. constructing ad-hoc and potentially subjective smaller competitive sets. Our model addresses the inherent statistical issue that arises when including a large number of competitive effects and parsimoniously utilizes all competitive data. We demonstrate our model using data from the US automobile industry over a twelve-year period and forecast car-model sales for 14 exemplary car-models utilizing multiple search measures for all 374 potential competitive car-models. We show that our model fits and forecasts sales better than models not leveraging the full competitive search data, e.g., using subjective sets of relevant competitors or narrowly defined category competitors. We also find that market research done via novel large-language models (also called LLMs) to obtain a narrower set of competitors does not outperform our proposed model that includes the full set of competitors.
销售预测是一项重要的营销职能,对大多数企业来说,销售是由自身和竞争活动驱动的。大多数企业利用自身的营销活动或竞争对手的部分营销活动来预测销售额。由于数据可用性的限制,在预测销售额时很少使用全部竞争对手的数据。在线搜索数据的出现为我们提供了一个新的数据源,可以了解企业自身的竞争活动以及从未观察到的竞争活动。我们提出了一种新颖的正则化动态预测模型,利用市场上所有可用的竞争搜索数据,而不是构建临时的、可能带有主观性的较小竞争集。我们的模型解决了包含大量竞争效应时所产生的固有统计问题,并合理地利用了所有竞争数据。我们利用美国汽车行业 12 年的数据演示了我们的模型,并通过对所有 374 种潜在竞争车型的多种搜索措施,预测了 14 种典范车型的销量。我们的研究结果表明,我们的模型比没有利用全部竞争搜索数据的模型(例如,利用相关竞争对手的主观集合或狭义的类别竞争对手)更适合并能更好地预测销量。我们还发现,通过新颖的大型语言模型(也称 LLM)进行市场调研以获得较窄的竞争对手集合,其效果并不优于我们提出的包含全套竞争对手的模型。
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引用次数: 0
Acceptability lies in the eye of the beholder: Self-other biases in GenAI collaborations 可接受性取决于观察者的眼睛:GenAI 合作中的自他偏见
IF 5.9 2区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-05-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijresmar.2024.05.006

Since the release of ChatGPT, heated discussions have focused on the acceptable uses of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) in education, science, and business practices. A salient question in these debates pertains to perceptions of the extent to which creators contribute to the co-produced output. As the current research establishes, the answer to this question depends on the evaluation target. Nine studies (seven preregistered, total N = 4498) document that people evaluate their own contributions to co-produced outputs with ChatGPT as higher than those of others. This systematic self–other difference stems from differential inferences regarding types of GenAI usage behavior: People think that they predominantly use GenAI for inspiration, but others use it to outsource work. These self–other differences in turn have direct ramifications for GenAI acceptability perceptions, such that usage is considered more acceptable for the self than for others. The authors discuss the implications of these findings for science, education, and marketing.

自 ChatGPT 发布以来,关于在教育、科学和商业实践中如何使用可接受的生成式人工智能(GenAI)的讨论一直备受关注。这些争论中的一个突出问题涉及到创造者对联合产出的贡献程度。目前的研究表明,这个问题的答案取决于评估对象。九项研究(七项预先注册,总计 = 4498)表明,人们对自己在 ChatGPT 联合制作成果中的贡献的评价高于他人。这种系统性的自我-他人差异源于对 GenAI 使用行为类型的不同推断:人们认为自己主要使用 GenAI 来激发灵感,而其他人则使用 GenAI 来外包工作。这些自我与他人的差异反过来又直接影响了人们对GenAI可接受性的看法,例如,人们认为自己比他人更容易接受使用GenAI。作者讨论了这些发现对科学、教育和营销的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Where’s Waldo? A framework for quantifying the privacy-utility trade-off in marketing applications 沃尔多在哪里?量化营销应用中隐私与效用权衡的框架
IF 5.9 2区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-05-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijresmar.2024.05.003

Firms can rely on various data protection methods to comply with the General Data Protection Regulation’s (GDPR) anonymization directive. We develop a privacy attack to estimate customers’ privacy risk and find that data protection methods commonly used in practice do not offer a reliable guarantee of privacy protection. We therefore develop a framework that describes the use of deep learning to generate synthetic data that are both (differentially) private, and useful for marketing analysts. Empirically, we apply our framework to two privacy-sensitive marketing applications in which an analyst is faced with everyday managerial practices. In contrast to GDPR’s directive to minimize data collection, we show that customers’ privacy risk can be reduced by blending into a large crowd: a “Where’s Waldo” effect. Our framework provides a data protection method with a formal privacy guarantee and allows analysts to quantify, control, and communicate privacy risk levels with stakeholders, draw meaningful insights, and share data even under privacy regulations.

企业可以依靠各种数据保护方法来遵守《一般数据保护条例》(GDPR)的匿名化指令。我们开发了一种隐私攻击来估计客户的隐私风险,并发现实际中常用的数据保护方法并不能提供可靠的隐私保护保证。因此,我们开发了一个框架,描述了如何利用深度学习生成既(有区别地)保护隐私又对营销分析师有用的合成数据。在实证方面,我们将我们的框架应用于两个隐私敏感的营销应用中,在这两个应用中,分析师面临着日常的管理实践。与 GDPR 关于尽量减少数据收集的指令相反,我们表明,客户的隐私风险可以通过融入人群来降低:这就是 "Where's Waldo "效应。我们的框架提供了一种具有正式隐私保证的数据保护方法,使分析人员能够量化、控制隐私风险水平,并与利益相关者进行沟通,得出有意义的见解,并在符合隐私法规的情况下共享数据。
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引用次数: 0
Generative AI for scalable feedback to multimodal exercises 为多模态练习提供可扩展反馈的生成式人工智能
IF 5.9 2区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-05-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijresmar.2024.05.005

Detailed feedback on exercises helps learners become proficient but is time-consuming for educators and, thus, hardly scalable. This manuscript evaluates how well Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) provides automated feedback on complex multimodal exercises requiring coding, statistics, and economic reasoning. Besides providing this technology through an easily accessible web application, this article evaluates the technology’s performance by comparing the quantitative feedback (i.e., points achieved) from Generative AI models with human expert feedback for 4,349 solutions to marketing analytics exercises. The results show that automated feedback produced by Generative AI (GPT-4) provides almost unbiased evaluations while correlating highly with (r = 0.94) and deviating only 6 % from human evaluations. GPT-4 performs best among seven Generative AI models, albeit at the highest cost. Comparing the models’ performance with costs shows that GPT-4, Mistral Large, Claude 3 Opus, and Gemini 1.0 Pro dominate three other Generative AI models (Claude 3 Sonnet, GPT-3.5, and Gemini 1.5 Pro). Expert assessment of the qualitative feedback (i.e., the AI’s textual response) indicates that it is mostly correct, sufficient, and appropriate for learners. A survey of marketing analytics learners shows that they highly recommend the app and its Generative AI feedback. An advantage of the app is its subject-agnosticism—it does not require any subject- or exercise-specific training. Thus, it is immediately usable for new exercises in marketing analytics and other subjects.

对练习的详细反馈有助于学习者熟练掌握,但对教育者来说却非常耗时,因此很难推广。本手稿评估了生成式人工智能(AI)如何为需要编码、统计和经济推理的复杂多模态练习提供自动反馈。除了通过一个易于访问的网络应用程序提供这项技术外,本文还通过比较生成式人工智能模型和人类专家对 4349 个营销分析练习解决方案的定量反馈(即获得的分数)来评估该技术的性能。结果表明,生成式人工智能(GPT-4)产生的自动反馈提供了几乎无偏见的评价,同时与人类评价高度相关(r = 0.94),偏差仅为 6%。GPT-4 在七个生成式人工智能模型中表现最佳,尽管成本最高。将模型的性能与成本进行比较后发现,GPT-4、Mistral Large、Claude 3 Opus 和 Gemini 1.0 Pro 比其他三个生成式人工智能模型(Claude 3 Sonnet、GPT-3.5 和 Gemini 1.5 Pro)更胜一筹。专家对定性反馈(即人工智能的文字回复)的评估表明,这些反馈大多是正确、充分和适合学习者的。对市场分析学习者的调查显示,他们强烈推荐该应用程序及其生成式人工智能反馈。该应用程序的一个优点是不分学科,不需要任何针对特定学科或练习的培训。因此,它可以立即用于营销分析和其他科目的新练习。
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引用次数: 0
Consumer-driven climate mitigation: Exploring barriers and solutions in studying higher mitigation potential behaviors 消费者驱动的气候减缓:探索研究更高减排潜力行为的障碍和解决方案
IF 5.9 2区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-04-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijresmar.2024.04.001

A systematic review of sustainable consumer behaviors in five prominent consumer research journals revealed that green behaviors with greater potential for climate mitigation (e.g., plant-based consumption) have not been broadly studied, indicating promising opportunities for future research. In an exploratory survey, we conceptually replicate this finding using a sample of consumer researchers with a general interest in studying higher-potential behaviors. We explore potential explanations, including researchers' focus on construct-to-construct mapping, preference for behaviors they personally experience or find easy to implement, lack of clear incentives to study higher-potential behaviors, and inadequate understanding of mitigation potential. To help shift consumer researchers’ focus on higher-potential behaviors, we offer concrete recommendations, such as proactively considering mitigation potential both as authors and reviewers, and utilizing phenomenon-to-construct mapping for enhancing theoretical contributions. In sum, this research will help interested consumer researchers to provide more relevant answers to the urgent challenge of climate change mitigation.

通过对五本著名消费者研究期刊中的可持续消费行为进行系统回顾,我们发现具有更大气候减缓潜力的绿色行为(如植物性消费)尚未得到广泛研究,这为未来研究提供了大好机会。在一项探索性调查中,我们从概念上对这一发现进行了复制,使用的样本是对研究更高潜力行为具有普遍兴趣的消费者研究人员。我们探讨了潜在的解释,包括研究人员对建构-建构映射的关注、对他们亲身经历或认为易于实施的行为的偏好、缺乏研究高潜能行为的明确动机,以及对缓解潜能的认识不足。为了帮助消费者研究人员将注意力转移到更高潜力的行为上,我们提出了具体的建议,如作为作者和审稿人主动考虑缓解潜力,利用现象到结构的映射来加强理论贡献。总之,这项研究将帮助有兴趣的消费者研究人员为减缓气候变化这一紧迫挑战提供更有针对性的答案。
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引用次数: 0
Loss framing increases entity theorists’ vaccine uptake 损失框架增加了实体理论家的疫苗接种率
IF 7 2区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-04-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijresmar.2024.04.002
Shaobo Li, Nuoya Chen, Elaine Chan, Yang Guo
Although vaccination is an effective way to protect individuals against contagious diseases (e.g., COVID-19 and influenza), vaccine hesitancy remains widespread. This research seeks to understand why some individuals are hesitant to be vaccinated and proposes communication strategies to increase their vaccine uptake. Specifically, we examine how individuals’ implicit theory orientation (entity vs. incremental) drives their vaccine hesitancy and how different message framing techniques (gain vs. loss) can mitigate this tendency and increase vaccine uptake. Across six studies (N = 2,773, among which three studies were pre-registered), we demonstrate that entity (vs. incremental) theorists exhibit lower intentions for vaccination against various contagious diseases. Moreover, entity theorists’ vaccination intentions were higher when framing the consequences of not getting vaccinated as a loss than framing the benefits of getting vaccinated as a gain. In contrast, message framing does not affect incremental theorists’ intentions for vaccination. In conclusion, this research enhances our understanding of factors influencing vaccine uptake, sheds light on the interaction between implicit theory orientation and message framing in the context of infectious diseases and offers practical communication strategies for health officials and policymakers to address vaccine hesitancy.
虽然接种疫苗是保护个人免受传染性疾病(如 COVID-19 和流感)侵害的有效方法,但疫苗接种犹豫不决的现象仍然普遍存在。本研究试图了解一些人对接种疫苗犹豫不决的原因,并提出提高疫苗接种率的沟通策略。具体来说,我们研究了个人的内隐理论取向(实体与渐进)如何导致他们对疫苗犹豫不决,以及不同的信息框架技术(收益与损失)如何减轻这种倾向并提高疫苗接种率。通过六项研究(N = 2,773,其中三项研究为预先注册),我们证明了实体(与增量)理论者对各种传染病的疫苗接种意愿较低。此外,当把不接种疫苗的后果设定为损失时,实体论者的接种意愿要高于把接种疫苗的益处设定为收益时的接种意愿。相比之下,信息框架并不影响增量理论者的疫苗接种意愿。总之,这项研究加深了我们对疫苗接种影响因素的理解,揭示了传染病背景下内隐理论取向与信息框架之间的相互作用,并为卫生官员和政策制定者提供了实用的沟通策略,以解决疫苗接种犹豫不决的问题。
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引用次数: 0
Marketing strategies in reward-based crowdfunding: The role of demand uncertainties 奖励式众筹的营销策略:需求不确定性的作用
IF 7 2区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-03-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijresmar.2024.03.001
Peng Wang, Bikram Ghosh, Yong Liu
Reward-based crowdfunding has become an attractive option for entrepreneurs to launch new businesses. This paper examines crowdfunding entrepreneurs’ decision-making facing uncertain demands to shed light on the quality, pricing, and advertising strategies of crowdfunded products. At the core of our analysis are two fundamental mechanisms of reward-based crowdfunding (the All-Or-Nothing, or AON, funding model and ex-ante pricing) and their interactions with two prevalent demand uncertainties in new product development, namely market size uncertainty and consumer valuation uncertainty. Our results show that AON benefits the entrepreneur by safeguarding against both types of demand uncertainty. Ex-ante pricing, however, is harmful through the uncertainty in consumer valuation but not in market size. AON boosts product quality, price, and advertising spending while ex-ante pricing hinders these important marketing decisions. In further examining how market size versus consumer valuation uncertainty affects new product profitability, we find that greater uncertainty in market size can be profit-enhancing. However, the case of consumer valuation uncertainty is more nuanced, featuring a U-shaped impact on profitability. The paper offers insights and managerial implications to entrepreneurs, investors, and crowdfunding platforms.
以奖励为基础的众筹已成为创业者创办新企业的一个极具吸引力的选择。本文研究了众筹创业者面对不确定需求时的决策,以揭示众筹产品的质量、定价和广告策略。我们分析的核心是基于奖励的众筹的两个基本机制(即 "全有或全无"(AON)筹资模式和事前定价),以及它们与新产品开发中两个普遍存在的需求不确定性(即市场规模不确定性和消费者估值不确定性)之间的相互作用。我们的研究结果表明,AON 有利于创业者抵御这两种需求不确定性。然而,事前定价对消费者估值的不确定性有害,但对市场规模的不确定性无害。AON促进了产品质量、价格和广告支出,而事前定价则阻碍了这些重要的营销决策。在进一步研究市场规模与消费者估值的不确定性如何影响新产品的盈利能力时,我们发现,市场规模的不确定性越大,盈利能力越强。然而,消费者估值不确定性的情况更为微妙,对盈利能力的影响呈 U 型。本文为创业者、投资者和众筹平台提供了见解和管理启示。
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引用次数: 0
Sharing information with AI (versus a human) impairs brand trust: The role of audience size inferences and sense of exploitation 与人工智能(vs人类)共享信息损害品牌信任:受众规模推断和剥削感的作用
IF 7 2区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijresmar.2023.08.011
Deniz Lefkeli , Mustafa Karataş , Zeynep Gürhan-Canli

This research examines whether and why disclosing information to AI as opposed to humans influences an important brand-related outcome—consumers’ trust in brands. Results from two pilot studies and nine controlled experiments (n = 2,887) show that consumers trust brands less when they disclose information to AI as opposed to humans. The effect is driven by consumers’ inference that AI shares information with a larger audience, which increases consumers’ sense of exploitation. This, in turn, decreases their trust in brands. In line with our theorizing, the effect is stronger among consumers who are relatively more concerned about the privacy of their data. Furthermore, the negative consequences for brands can be mitigated when (1) customers are informed that the confidentiality of their information is protected, (2) AI is anthropomorphized, and (3) the disclosed information is relatively less relevant.

本研究探讨了向人工智能而非人类披露信息是否以及为何会影响与品牌相关的重要结果--消费者对品牌的信任。两项试点研究和九项对照实验(n = 2,887)的结果表明,当品牌向人工智能而非人类披露信息时,消费者对品牌的信任度较低。造成这种效应的原因是,消费者推断人工智能会与更多受众分享信息,从而增加了消费者的被利用感。这反过来又降低了他们对品牌的信任。与我们的理论相一致的是,这种效应在相对更关注数据隐私的消费者中更为强烈。此外,当(1)消费者被告知其信息的保密性受到保护,(2)人工智能被拟人化,(3)披露的信息相关性相对较低时,对品牌的负面影响就会减轻。
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引用次数: 0
The intended and unintended effects of synced advertising: When persuasion knowledge could help or backfire 同步广告的预期和非预期效果:说服知识何时起作用或起反作用
IF 7 2区 管理学 Q1 BUSINESS Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ijresmar.2023.07.001
Claire M. Segijn , Eunah Kim , Garim Lee , Chloe Gansen , Sophie C. Boerman

Developments in digital technologies have extended the abilities of marketers to collect, process, and share consumer data to optimize personalized messages across media in real time, a strategy known as synced advertising. Previous research has found promising effects related to synced advertising. At the same time, consumer knowledge appears to be low, and informing consumers could increase their critical attitudes towards synced ads. Our eye-tracking lab study (N = 163) showed that informing consumers on synced advertising helps them to understand and increase their knowledge about this new marketing strategy. Moreover, this strategy increases recall of the product mentioned on TV as well as perceived surveillance. Finally, we found that all participants closed the synced ad with an average of 6.5 s and fixated on it for an average of 1.3 s. This study contributes to the growing literature on synced advertising by empirically investigating the impact of consumer knowledge on the tensions and opportunities of this new marketing strategy.

数字技术的发展扩展了营销人员收集、处理和共享消费者数据的能力,从而实时优化跨媒体的个性化信息,这种策略被称为同步广告。以往的研究发现,同步广告具有良好的效果。与此同时,消费者对同步广告的认知度似乎不高,如果能让消费者了解相关信息,就能提高他们对同步广告的批判态度。我们的眼动追踪实验室研究(N = 163)表明,向消费者宣传同步广告有助于他们了解并增加对这种新营销策略的认识。此外,这种策略还能提高消费者对电视中提及的产品的回忆度以及感知到的监督度。最后,我们发现所有参与者关闭同步广告的时间平均为 6.5 秒,固定在广告上的时间平均为 1.3 秒。这项研究通过实证调查消费者知识对这种新营销策略的紧张和机遇的影响,为同步广告方面不断增长的文献做出了贡献。
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引用次数: 0
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International Journal of Research in Marketing
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