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Dynamic information design in an entry game 入门博弈中的动态信息设计
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-05-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2025.106018
Xuelin Li , Martin Szydlowski , Fangyuan Yu
We study dynamic Bayesian persuasion in an entry game. A sender publicly reveals information to an adopter and a competitor who decide when to irreversibly enter or exit a market. When the sender's loss from competition is small, the sender first provides information to attract the adopter, and then aims to reveal sufficiently negative information to deter the competitor. Otherwise, the optimal policy is reversed. The sender first aims to provide negative information to deter the competitor and then to reveal positive information to attract the adopter. We interpret the optimal policy as inducing hype cycles, and show that hype cycles are more severe in stagnant industries or with higher threat of competition.
我们研究了一个入门博弈中的动态贝叶斯说服。发送者公开向接受者和竞争者透露信息,由后者决定何时不可逆转地进入或退出市场。当发送者在竞争中损失较小时,发送者首先提供信息以吸引接受者,然后旨在揭示足够的负面信息以阻止竞争者。否则,最优策略将被逆转。发送者的目的首先是提供负面信息来威慑竞争对手,然后揭示积极的信息来吸引接受者。我们将最优政策解释为诱导炒作周期,并表明炒作周期在停滞行业或竞争威胁较高的行业中更为严重。
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引用次数: 0
Universal social welfare orderings and risk 普遍的社会福利秩序和风险
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-05-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2025.106014
Marc Fleurbaey , Stéphane Zuber
How can social prospects be evaluated and compared when there may be a risk on i) the actual allocations that people will receive, ii) the existence of these future people, and iii) their preferences? This paper investigates this question, which can arise when considering policies, such as climate policy, that affect people who do not yet exist. We start from the observation that there is no social ordering that meets minimal requirements of fairness, social rationality, and respect for people's ex ante preferences. We explore three ways around this impossibility. First, if we drop the ex ante Pareto requirement, we can obtain fair ex post criteria that take an (arbitrary) expected utility of an equally-distributed equivalent level of well-being. Second, if the social ordering is not an expected utility, we can obtain fair ex ante criteria that evaluate uncertain individual prospects with a certainty-equivalent measure of well-being. Third, if we accept that interpersonal comparisons rely on VNM utility functions even in absence of risk, we can construct expected utility social orderings that satisfy a version of Pareto ex ante.
当存在以下风险时,如何评估和比较社会前景:(1)人们将获得的实际分配,(2)这些未来人的存在,(3)他们的偏好?本文调查了这个问题,在考虑政策时可能会出现这个问题,比如气候政策,影响到那些还不存在的人。我们的出发点是观察到,没有一种社会秩序能够满足公平、社会理性和尊重人们事前偏好的最低要求。我们探索了三种解决这种不可能性的方法。首先,如果我们放弃事前帕累托要求,我们可以获得公平的事后标准,该标准采用平均分配的等效福利水平的(任意)预期效用。其次,如果社会秩序不是一种预期效用,我们可以获得公平的事前标准,用确定性等效的福祉衡量来评估不确定的个人前景。第三,如果我们承认即使在没有风险的情况下,人际比较也依赖于VNM效用函数,我们就可以构建满足事前帕累托理论的期望效用社会排序。
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引用次数: 0
Business cycles fluctuations in three-sector intertemporal equilibrium models 三部门时际均衡模型中的商业周期波动
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-05-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2025.106010
Kazuo Nishimura , Florian Pelgrin , Alain Venditti
This paper introduces a novel mechanism driving endogenous business cycle fluctuations within a frictionless three-sector intertemporal equilibrium model. We emphasize the critical role of consumer preferences as a primary driver of cyclical dynamics by considering a consumption bundle composed of a pure consumption good and a mixed consumption-investment good that simultaneously serves as both a final consumption good and a capital-accumulating investment good. Endogenous fluctuations naturally arise from sectoral capital intensity differences, an intertemporal consumption trade-off between the two goods, or the interaction of both mechanisms. We offer a detailed characterization of the economy's dynamics, identifying the Hopf bifurcation conditions that trigger persistent cyclical behavior. Additionally, we explore the periodicity of the resulting limit cycles, providing insights into how shifts in preferences and sectoral complementarities can generate self-sustained macroeconomic fluctuations.
本文在无摩擦三部门跨期均衡模型中引入了一种驱动内生商业周期波动的新机制。我们通过考虑由纯消费产品和消费-投资混合产品组成的消费束,强调消费者偏好作为周期动态主要驱动力的关键作用。内生波动自然来自部门资本密集度差异、两种商品之间的跨期消费权衡或两种机制的相互作用。我们提供了经济动态的详细特征,确定了引发持续周期性行为的霍普夫分岔条件。此外,我们还探讨了由此产生的极限周期的周期性,为偏好和部门互补性的变化如何产生自我维持的宏观经济波动提供了见解。
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引用次数: 0
Discrete/continuous choice models and representative consumer theory 离散/连续选择模型和代表性消费者理论
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-05-01 Epub Date: 2025-04-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2025.106012
Jean-Pierre Dubé , Joonhwi Joo , Kyeongbae Kim
We establish the integrability of demand for a broad class of discrete/continuous choice, additive, homothetic random-utility models of individual consumer behavior with perfect substitutes preferences (linear indifference curves) and divisible goods. We derive the corresponding indirect utility function and then establish a representative consumer formulation for this entire class of models. The representative consumer is always normative, facilitating aggregate welfare analysis. These findings should be of interest to the literature in macro, trade, industrial organization, labor, and ideal price index measurement that use representative consumer models, such as CES and its variants. Our results generalize such representative consumer formulations to the broad, empirically-relevant class of models of behavior that are routinely used in the discrete/continuous choice analysis of micro data, including specifications that do not suffer from the IIA property and that allow for heterogeneous consumer preferences and incomes. These flexible discrete/continuous choice formulations also overcome many of the known limitations of CES and its variants for equilibrium prices and markups, trade liberalization effects and welfare analysis. We also discuss quasi-linear integrability in the case where products are indivisible and integrability no longer holds. If we relax homotheticity, we find that integrability generically fails to hold except in the special case of IIA preferences.
我们建立了一大类具有完全替代偏好(线性无差异曲线)和可分商品的个人消费者行为的离散/连续选择、加性、同质随机效用模型的需求可积性。我们推导了相应的间接效用函数,然后为这类模型建立了一个具有代表性的消费者公式。代表性消费者总是规范性的,有利于总福利分析。这些发现应该对宏观、贸易、产业组织、劳动力和使用代表性消费者模型(如CES及其变体)的理想价格指数测量方面的文献感兴趣。我们的研究结果将这些具有代表性的消费者公式推广到广泛的、与经验相关的行为模型类别,这些模型通常用于微观数据的离散/连续选择分析,包括不受IIA属性影响的规范,以及允许异质性消费者偏好和收入的规范。这些灵活的离散/连续选择公式也克服了CES及其变体在均衡价格和加价、贸易自由化影响和福利分析方面的许多已知限制。我们还讨论了在乘积不可分且可积性不再成立的情况下的拟线性可积性。如果我们放宽同性,我们发现除了在IIA偏好的特殊情况下,一般的可积性不成立。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal monetary policy in production networks with distortions 扭曲生产网络中的最优货币政策
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-02-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2025.105979
Zhihao Xu , Changhua Yu
This paper studies optimal monetary policy in a multisector economy with input-output linkages and distortions. Our model incorporates both the supply side and the demand side effects of monetary policy. We derive a tractable sufficient statistic for the supply side effect, which comprises two reallocation channels resulting from substitution between sectoral products for households and firms, and substitution between labor and intermediate inputs in production. The optimal monetary policy induces an inflation bias that stems from both an aggregate wedge and the supply side effect, and targets an inflation index by assigning higher weights to (i) larger sectors, (ii) sectors with stickier prices, and (iii) sectors with less distortions. Our quantitative results indicate that production networks play a crucial role in generating both the supply and demand effects of monetary policy.
本文研究了具有投入产出联系和扭曲的多部门经济中的最优货币政策。我们的模型同时考虑了货币政策的供给侧和需求侧影响。我们为供给侧效应导出了一个易于处理的充分统计数据,其中包括家庭和企业部门产品之间的替代以及劳动力和生产中中间投入之间的替代所产生的两个再配置渠道。最优货币政策诱导了一种通胀偏差,这种偏差源于总量楔形效应和供给侧效应,并通过给(i)较大的部门、(ii)价格粘性较大的部门和(iii)扭曲程度较小的部门分配更高的权重来确定通胀指数。我们的定量结果表明,生产网络在产生货币政策的供给和需求效应方面起着至关重要的作用。
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引用次数: 0
The screening role of market tightness in a competitive search equilibrium with adverse selection 市场紧度在逆向选择竞争均衡中的筛选作用
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2025.105995
Hung-Chi Chang , Yiting Li
This paper revisits Guerrieri, Shimer, and Wright (2010) (GSW) to study screening in a competitive search market with adverse selection. GSW show that there exists a unique separating equilibrium in which each type applies to a different contract, and their key sorting assumption involves a single-crossing property on agents' preferences. We show that GSW's main results hold under a weaker assumption on preference heterogeneity, called generalized sorting, and weakening the sorting assumption relies on explicitly considering the screening role of market tightness. The assumption can be weakened further if we assume that agents' matching probability strictly increases in market tightness. In addition to providing theoretical insights, we study examples to demonstrate how generalized sorting facilitates the study of market imperfections under search and informational frictions. In our examples, indivisibility, price limits, and the minimum wage violate GSW's sorting assumption but remain tractable under generalized sorting. Thus, an additional contribution of this paper is the expansion in applicability of GSW's approach.
本文回顾了Guerrieri, Shimer, and Wright (2010) (GSW)在逆向选择竞争搜索市场中的筛选研究。GSW表明存在一种独特的分离均衡,其中每种类型适用于不同的契约,其关键排序假设涉及代理偏好的单交叉特性。我们发现,GSW的主要结果是在偏好异质性较弱的假设下成立的,即广义排序假设,而弱化排序假设依赖于明确考虑市场紧缩的筛选作用。如果我们假设代理的匹配概率在市场紧俏时严格增加,则可以进一步削弱这一假设。除了提供理论见解外,我们还研究了一些例子,以证明广义分类如何有助于研究搜索和信息摩擦下的市场不完善性。在我们的例子中,不可分割性、价格限制和最低工资违反了GSW的分类假设,但在广义分类下仍然是可处理的。因此,本文的另一个贡献是扩展了GSW方法的适用性。
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引用次数: 0
Revenue effects of ambiguity in multi-unit auctions 多单位拍卖中模糊性对收益的影响
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2025.105996
Daniel Bougt , Gagan Ghosh , Heng Liu
We study the effect of ambiguity on expected revenue in multi-unit auctions where bidders have independent private values, maxmin preferences, and single-unit demand. If the set of priors is suitably rich, we show that the discriminatory or ‘pay-as-bid’ auction has the highest expected revenue, followed by the sequential first-price auction and then the sequential second-price auction. The uniform price auction with the ‘highest losing bid’ pricing rule does the worst. Our results also extend to some open auction formats.
我们研究了在投标人具有独立的私人价值、最大偏好和单单位需求的多单位拍卖中,模糊性对预期收益的影响。如果先验集足够丰富,我们表明歧视性或“按出价付费”拍卖具有最高的预期收入,其次是顺序第一价格拍卖,然后是顺序第二价格拍卖。采用“最高输标”定价规则的统一价格拍卖表现最差。我们的研究结果也适用于一些公开拍卖形式。
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引用次数: 0
Offshoring and the distribution of skills 离岸外包和技能分配
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2025.105994
Hiroshi Goto , Yan Ma , Nobuyuki Takeuchi
We develop a two-sector model to explore how skill distribution affects trade in final goods and offshoring. We show that when countries differ in skill abundance, wage disparities create opportunities for offshoring. In contrast, when countries vary in skill diversity but share the same median skill, symmetric skill distributions render offshoring infeasible. We also find that offshoring can result in the relative price under offshoring being lower than each country's autarky relative price if the gap between the median skill levels of the two countries is sufficiently large. Finally, we demonstrate that an individual's industry of employment primarily determines how they are affected by trade in final goods, whereas their occupation (tasks) shapes how they are impacted by offshoring.
我们开发了一个两部门模型来探索技能分配如何影响最终产品贸易和离岸外包。我们表明,当国家在技能丰富程度上存在差异时,工资差异为离岸外包创造了机会。相反,当各国的技能多样性不同,但技能中位数相同时,对称的技能分布使得离岸外包不可行。我们还发现,如果两国的技能水平中位数差距足够大,离岸外包可能导致离岸外包下的相对价格低于各自国家的相对价格。最后,我们证明了个人的就业行业主要决定了他们如何受到最终产品贸易的影响,而他们的职业(任务)则决定了他们如何受到离岸外包的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamic consistency and rectangularity for the smooth ambiguity model 光滑模糊模型的动态一致性和矩形性
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2025.105991
Andrei Savochkin , Alexander Shklyaev , Alexey Galatenko
We study the Smooth Ambiguity decision criterion in the dynamic setting to understand when it can satisfy the Dynamic Consistency and Consequentialism properties. These properties allow one to rewrite the decision criterion recursively and solve for optimal decisions by Dynamic Programming. Our result characterizes the possibility of having these properties through a condition that resembles Epstein and Schneider's (2003) rectangularity condition for the maxmin model. At the same time, we show that Dynamic Consistency and Consequentialism can be achieved for Smooth Ambiguity preferences in a narrower set of scenarios than one would hope for.
我们研究了动态环境下的平滑模糊决策准则,以了解它何时能满足动态一致性和结果主义性质。这些特性允许人们递归地重写决策准则,并通过动态规划求解最优决策。我们的结果通过类似于Epstein和Schneider(2003)的maxmin模型的矩形条件来表征具有这些属性的可能性。与此同时,我们表明动态一致性和结果主义可以在比人们希望的更窄的场景中实现平滑模糊偏好。
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引用次数: 0
Information orders in screening problems 筛选中的信息顺序问题
IF 1.4 3区 经济学 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2025-04-01 Epub Date: 2025-03-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2025.105993
Andreas Asseyer
This paper studies information orders in screening models. I amend a general screening problem with a signal about the agent's type. The principal prefers one signal to another for any preferences of principal and agent if and only if the signals are ranked by Blackwell's order. Under a standard regularity condition, a novel information order – the hazard rate spread (HRS) order – characterizes a robust ranking of signals by the principal. I relate the HRS order to well-known information orders and provide sufficient conditions for other welfare measures than the principal's payoff to increase or decrease in the HRS order.
本文研究筛选模型中的信息顺序。我用一个关于代理类型的信号修正了一个一般的筛选问题。对于委托人和代理人的任何偏好,当且仅当信号按布莱克威尔的顺序排列时,委托人更喜欢一个信号而不是另一个信号。在标准正则性条件下,提出了一种新的信息顺序——危险率扩散(HRS)顺序,其特征是由主体对信号进行鲁棒排序。我将HRS订单与众所周知的信息订单联系起来,并为在HRS订单中增加或减少本金支付以外的其他福利措施提供了充分的条件。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Journal of Economic Theory
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