Demography最新文献

Self-employment plays a crucial role in immigrants' economic assimilation. Previous studies examining immigrants' self-employment relied on estimates obtained from national surveys, which could contain measurement error. In this research note, we compare estimates of immigrant men's self-employment obtained from the Current Population Survey (CPS) with those from data linking respondents to their tax records. Our findings indicate that the CPS substantially underestimates the immigrant-native gap in self-employment. In some cases, the rate of self-employment for immigrants from administrative data is nearly double that obtained from survey data alone. Measurement error also appears to distort estimated differences in self-employment among immigrants by race, ethnicity, and national origin. The results highlight the greater importance of self-employment for the labor market integration of immigrant men than was previously known on the basis of survey data alone.

Young adult romantic relationships have undergone significant changes in recent decades, resulting in such distinct demographic trends as rising rates of relationship dissolution. Union dissolution during young adulthood can influence future relationship stability, financial well-being, and health. Reproductive experiences are an important factor that can shape relationship stability. Much of past research, however, has focused on the impact of childbearing on relationship stability while less attention has been paid to other reproductive experiences that could also shape relationship stability, such as pregnancy scares. A pregnancy scare is when a woman suspects she has an undesired pregnancy but later discovers she is not pregnant. This experience might increase or decrease relationship stability. Drawing on data collected from young women in the Relationship Dynamics and Social Life study, this analysis examines the association between pregnancy scares and union dissolution. Results suggest that pregnancy scares are negatively associated with union dissolution, and this relationship persists over time; however, this association varies by relationship type, with serious dating relationships experiencing the most protective benefits.

In July 2002, Danish reforms limited the marriage opportunities for all Danish and non-European Union (EU) citizens younger than 24 living in Denmark who wished (or whose parents wished for them) to marry someone from outside the EU. Before the reform, more than 80% of first- and second-generation immigrants from outside the EU married spouses from their parents' origin countries; the reform drastically changed their marriage market. We examine the policy's effects on subsequent marriage behavior, the transition to motherhood, human capital accumulation, and labor market activities using full-population administrative data on 578,380 Danish-born first- and second-generation non-EU immigrants born in 1972-1990 and a difference-in-differences design. We find that the policy delayed marriages among individuals with an immigrant background, extended premarital cohabitation, changed the composition of spouses, and delayed and decreased in-wedlock fertility. Finally, the duration of obtained formal education increased. Our results emphasize that reforms constraining access to external marriage markets can have lasting impacts on marriage demographics among immigrants.

This article explores the family policies-fertility nexus by assessing the potential impact of parental leaves, childcare services, and child benefits on fertility through a factorial survey experiment (FSE). We focus on Italy, where persistently low fertility rates are often linked to limited welfare support for families. We surveyed 4,022 respondents aged 20-44 and exposed them to various scenarios characterized by different family policy packages. We asked them to ascribe short-term fertility behavior to a fictitious couple under each scenario. Results show that each family-friendly policy envisioned positively impacts ascribed fertility. The availability of full-time, public childcare services seems more relevant than higher child benefits, whereas more generous and gender-equal parental leaves are perceived as less relevant. However, results suggest that only a consistent mix of financial benefits, parental leave schemes, and childcare provisions can boost fertility. In contrast, marginal changes in single policy levers are most likely ineffective. The FSE reveals that a couple's socioeconomic status is perceived as more important than family policies for fertility: ascribed fertility increases when both partners are employed and household income is high. We conclude by discussing the policy implications of our findings.

Inequality research has often used non-Hispanic Whites as the reference category in measuring U.S. racial and ethnic health disparities, with less attention paid to diversity among Whites. Immigration patterns over the last several decades have led to greater ethnic heterogeneity among Whites, which could be hidden by the aggregate category. Using data from the National Health Interview Survey (2000-2018), we disaggregate non-Hispanic Whites by nativity status (U.S.- and foreign-born) and foreign-born region of birth (Europe, Former Soviet Union, and the Middle East) to examine diversity in health among adults aged 30+ (n = 290,361). We find that foreign-born Whites do not have a consistent immigrant health advantage over U.S.-born Whites, and the presence of an advantage further varies by birth region. Immigrants from the Former Soviet Union (FSU) are particularly disadvantaged, reporting worse self-rated health and higher rates of hypertension (high blood pressure) than U.S.-born and European-born Whites. Middle Eastern immigrants also fare worse than U.S.-born Whites but have health outcomes more similar to European immigrants than to immigrants from the FSU. These findings highlight considerable diversity in health among White subgroups that is masked by the aggregate White category. Future research must continue to monitor growing heterogeneity among Whites and consider more carefully their use as an aggregate category for gauging racial inequality.

It is well-known that childbearing is associated with age at migration, but most research has focused on foreign-born women who migrated as adults. Much less is known about male immigrants or immigrants who arrived as children, despite the importance of studying these groups to understand theories of adaptation and socialization. This study addresses these gaps with a case study of Sweden, using longitudinal whole-population data to analyze the role of age at arrival in determining childbearing. The results suggest that age at arrival affects fertility across the childbearing life course, although there is little evidence of critical ages at arrival. These results hold for women and men, particularly for immigrants from higher fertility origins, with more ambiguous results for immigrants from lower fertility origins. The main findings also persist after examining sources of selection and reverse causality using sex-specific family fixed-effects models and separate analyses for specific countries of birth. Therefore, the study provides evidence of an underlying process of childhood socialization, followed by adaptation, that is common for women and men who migrate. Theoretical implications are discussed, including the need for further work on the determinants and mechanisms of adaptation.

Child maltreatment and child welfare system contact are both associated with an elevated risk of adverse outcomes in childhood, adolescence, and adulthood. Yet, data on variation in system contact are available for only a handful of countries, limiting knowledge about the societal correlates of system contact. As reported in this research note, we identified, collected, and harmonized administrative data on child welfare agency investigations, confirmed maltreatment, and placements into out-of-home care for 44 countries in the Global North. We analyzed 15 sociodemographic factors commonly associated with child maltreatment and child welfare system contact. Results support three core conclusions. First, data are much more available on late-stage system contact (e.g., foster care caseloads) than for early-stage system contact (e.g., investigations). Second, whereas early-stage contact tended to be on the rise in most countries, late-stage contact was stable or declining. Cross-national variation in these trends was generally less substantial than cross-national variation in levels of child welfare system contact, indicating relatively stable cross-national differences. Third, cross-national variation in out-of-home care largely reflected, but was not reducible to, regional and sociocultural variation: we find little evidence for universal drivers of foster care caseloads across the Global North.

India is a leading global hot spot for extreme heat waves induced by climate change. The social demography of India is centered on its caste hierarchy rooted in endogamous occupational groups. We investigate the association between caste and climate inequality by studying occupational exposure during the 2019 and 2022 heat waves. We combine high spatiotemporal resolution heat stress information from satellite imagery with a large nationally and regionally representative labor force survey with rich socioeconomic and demographic information (n > 100,000 individuals). The slope of the heat stress dose-workhours curve corresponding to the marginalized caste groups is between 25% and 150% steeper than that for dominant caste groups for UTCI (Universal Thermal Climate Index) thresholds between 26°C and 35°C. Our models control for other economic-demographic confounders, including age, gender, education, and economic status, besides political-geographic controls and fixed effects. Our robust evidence for the association between caste identity and exposure to heat stress shows why adaptation and mitigation plans in India must account for the hierarchical social order characterized by the "division of laborers" along caste lines rather than the mere division of labor. Methodologically, our analysis demonstrates the utility of pairing satellite imagery and detailed demographic data.

The evaluation of innovative web-based data collection methods that are convenient for the general public and that yield high-quality scientific information for demographic researchers has become critical. Web-based methods are crucial for researchers with nationally representative research objectives but without the resources of larger organizations. The web mode is appealing because it is inexpensive relative to in-person and telephone modes, and it affords a high level of privacy. We evaluate a sequential mixed-mode web/mail data collection, conducted with a national probability sample of U.S. adults from 2020 to 2022. The survey topics focus on reproductive health and family formation. We compare estimates from this survey to those obtained from a face-to-face national survey of population reproductive health: the 2017-2019 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG). This comparison allows for maximum design complexity, including a complex household screening operation (to identify households with persons aged 18-49). We evaluate the ability of this national web/mail data collection approach to (1) recruit a representative sample of U.S. persons aged 18-49; (2) replicate key survey estimates based on the NSFG, considering expected effects of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns and the alternative modes on the estimates; (3) reduce complex sample design effects relative to the NSFG; and (4) reduce the costs per completed survey.

From the late nineteenth century until the end of the twentieth century, the Canadian government collaborated with Christian churches to operate a network of boarding schools for Indigenous children to culturally and economically assimilate them. These children were taken from their families and placed into residential schools, where they were to be assimilated into the Eurocentric culture of the dominant society. Using a unique restricted-access database that asked Indigenous respondents about their family history with residential schools, in addition to questions on socioeconomic outcomes, I study the intergenerational effects of these schools. Despite previous research showing that residential schools increased human capital accumulation among attendees, I find that residential schools are associated with lower educational attainment among subsequent generations. I present evidence consistent with the notion that both cultural detachment and a breakdown in family relationships contributed to a reversal of the standard relationship between parents' and children's human capital. Encouragingly, I find suggestive evidence that greater access to cultural centers might buffer the harmful legacy of this historical trauma.