Demography最新文献

The proportion of U.S. children living in doubled-up households, in which a child lives with a parent plus adult kin or nonkin, has increased in the last 40 years. Although shared living arrangements are often understood as a strategy to cope with crises, no research to date has examined changes in children's living arrangements during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. We use the American Community Survey and the Current Population Survey to examine children's doubled-up living arrangements during 2020 and the extent to which children may have experienced "excess" doubling up relative to earlier years. We consider trends by household type (multigenerational, extended with other relatives, and nonrelative households) and differences by demographic characteristics (marital status, race and ethnicity, work status, education, age, and number of coresident children). We find evidence that more than half a million (509,600) children experienced "excess" doubling up in 2020. Greater than expected increases in doubled-up arrangements were driven by increases in multigenerational households, in particular among Black and Hispanic children, young children (under age six), those whose mothers never married, and those whose mothers were not working. Correlates of coresidence remained largely unchanged over time, although having a mother who had never married became a stronger correlate in 2020. Our findings suggest that both economic and instrumental needs likely explained the rise in multigenerational coresidence in 2020.

An increasingly hostile policy climate has reshaped abortion access in the United States. Recent literature has studied the effects of restrictive abortion policies on reproductive health outcomes. This study is the first to investigate the association between state-level abortion policy hostility and the pregnancy intentions of women with a pregnancy resulting in live birth. Data are from the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System survey, merged with a state-level legislative database from 2012-2018 and other state-level controls. Cross-sectional results reveal that a one-unit increase in abortion policy hostility is associated with a relative risk (odds) of having a live birth resulting from an unintended versus intended pregnancy that is 1.02 times as high (RRR = 1.02, 95% confidence interval = 1.01, 1.03). This result corresponds to a 13% increase in the predicted probability of having a live birth resulting from an unintended pregnancy between a zero-hostility and a maximum-hostility state. Models stratified by demographic and socioeconomic characteristics reveal that the association between abortion policy hostility and live birth resulting from an unintended pregnancy is particularly robust among women in younger, less educated, Medicaid, uninsured, and rural populations.

This article examines fertility and labor supply responses to a 2014 French policy reform that consisted of conditioning the amount of child allowances on household income. Employing regression discontinuity design and French administrative income data, I find that restricting family allowance eligibility criteria decreases fertility among the richest households. The results also highlight that receiving half the amount of the allowances or none leads to an increase in both male and female labor supply through an increase in overtime work. The implied change in earned income, due to an increase in weekly working hours, is found to be comparable to the euro value reduction in benefits. Auxiliary regression analyses show that the fertility decline reflects a decrease in the probability of having an additional child for parents rather than in the probability of becoming parents for households without children.

Prescription drug use has reached historic highs in the United States-a trend linked to increases in medicalization, institutional factors relating to the health care and pharmaceutical industries, and population aging and growing burdens of chronic disease. Despite the high and rising prevalence of use, no estimates exist of the total number of years Americans can expect to spend taking prescription drugs over their lifetimes. This study provides the first estimates of life course patterns of prescription drug use using data from the 1996-2019 Medical Expenditure Panel Surveys, the Human Mortality Database, and the National Center for Health Statistics. Newborns in 2019 could be expected to take prescription drugs for roughly half their lives: 47.54 years for women and 36.84 years for men. The number of years individuals can expect to take five or more drugs increased substantially. Americans also experienced particularly dramatic increases in years spent taking statins, antihypertensives, and antidepressants. There are also important differences in prescription drug use by race and ethnicity: non-Hispanic Whites take the most, Hispanics take the least, and non-Hispanic Blacks fall in between these extremes. Americans are taking drugs over a wide and expanding swathe of the life course, a testament to the centrality of prescription drugs in Americans' lives today.

Major changes in the educational distribution of the population and in institutions over the past century have affected the societal barriers to educational attainment. These changes can possibly result in stronger genetic associations. Using genetically informed, population-representative Finnish surveys linked to administrative registers, we investigated the polygenic associations and intergenerational transmission of education for those born between 1925 and 1989. First, we found that a polygenic index (PGI) designed to capture genetic predisposition to education strongly increased the predictiveness of educational attainment in pre-1950s cohorts, particularly among women. When decomposing the total contribution of PGI across different educational transitions, the transition between the basic and academic secondary tracks was the most important. This transition accounted for 60-80% of the total PGI-education association among most cohorts. The transition between academic secondary and higher tertiary levels increased its contribution across cohorts. Second, for cohorts born between 1955 and 1984, we observed that one eighth of the association between parental and one's own education is explained by the PGI. There was also an increase in the intergenerational correlation of education among these cohorts, which was partly explained by an increasing association between family education of origin and the PGI.

Recent studies have shown that U.S. Census- and American Community Survey (ACS)-based estimates of income segregation are subject to upward finite sampling bias (Logan et al. 2018; Logan et al. 2020; Reardon et al. 2018). We identify two additional sources of bias that are larger and opposite in sign to finite sampling bias: measurement error-induced attenuation bias and temporal pooling bias. The combination of these three sources of bias make it unclear how income segregation has trended. We formalize the three types of bias, providing a method to correct them simultaneously using public data from the decennial census and ACS from 1990 to 2015-2019. We use these methods to produce bias-corrected estimates of income segregation in the United States from 1990 to 2019. We find that (1) segregation is on the order of 50% greater than previously believed; (2) the increase from 2000 to the 2005-2009 period was much greater than indicated by previous estimates; and (3) segregation has declined since 2005-2009. Correcting these biases requires good estimates of the reliability of self-reported income and of the year-to-year volatility in neighborhood mean incomes.

Despite extensive research on cognitive impairment and limitations in basic activities of daily living, no study has investigated the burden of their co-occurrence (co-impairment). Using the Health and Retirement Study data and incidence-based multistate models, we study the population burden of co-impairment using three key indicators: mean age at onset, lifetime risk, and health expectancy. We examine patterns by gender, race, ethnicity, nativity, education, and their interactions for U.S. residents aged 50-100. Furthermore, we analyze what fractions of racial, ethnic, and nativity disparities in co-impairment are attributable to inequalities in educational attainment. Results reveal that an estimated 56% of women and 41% of men aged 50 will experience co-impairment in their remaining life expectancy. Men experience an earlier onset of co-impairment than women (74 vs. 77 years), and women live longer in co-impairment than men (3.4 vs. 1.9 years). Individuals who are Black, Latinx, and lower educated, especially those experiencing intersecting disadvantages, have substantially higher lifetime risk of co-impairment, earlier co-impairment onset, and longer life in co-impairment than their counterparts. Up to 75% of racial, ethnic, and nativity disparity is attributable to inequality in educational attainment. This study provides novel insights into the burden of co-impairment and offers evidence of dramatic disparities in the older U.S. population.

Given that surprisingly little is known about the demography of human kinship, we provide a demographic account of the kinship networks of individuals in Sweden in 2017 across sex and cohort between ages 0 and 102. We used administrative register data of the full population of Sweden to provide the first kinship enumeration for a complete population based on empirical data. We created ego-focused kinship networks of children, parents, siblings, grandchildren, grandparents, aunts and uncles, nieces and nephews, and cousins. We show the average number of kin of different types, the distribution of the number of kin, and changes in dispersion over time. A large share of all kin of an individual are horizontal kin, such as cousins. We observe the highest number of kin-on average, roughly 20-around age 35. We show differences between matrilineal and patrilineal kin and differences in the kinship structure arising from fertility with more than one childbearing partner, such as half-siblings. The results demonstrate substantial variability in kinship within a population. We discuss our findings in the context of other methods to estimate kinship.

The Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine for tuberculosis (TB) is widely used globally. Many high-income countries discontinued nationwide vaccination policies starting in the 1980s as the TB prevalence decreased. However, there is continued scientific interest in whether the general childhood immunity boost conferred by the BCG vaccination impacts adult health and mortality in low-TB contexts (known as nonspecific effects). While recent studies have found evidence of an association between BCG vaccination and survival to ages 34-45, it is unclear whether these associations are causal or driven by the unobserved characteristics of those who chose to voluntarily vaccinate. We use the abrupt discontinuation of mandatory BCG vaccination in Sweden in 1975 as a natural experiment to estimate the causal nonspecific effect of the BCG vaccine on cohort survival to midlife. Applying two complementary study designs, we find no evidence that survival to age 40 was affected by the discontinuation of childhood BCG vaccination. The results are consistent among both males and females and are robust to several sensitivity tests. Overall, despite prior correlational studies suggesting large nonspecific effects, we do not find any population-level evidence for a nonspecific effect of the BCG vaccine discontinuation on survival to age 40 in Sweden.

Narratives of demographic shifts overlook how societal changes shape the family trajectories of sexual minorities. Using sequence analysis, we describe how partnering and parenthood evolve over the life course of lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) women and men in the United Kingdom (N = 455) and how the types of these family trajectories changed across two birth cohorts (born before 1965 and in 1965-1979). We find five distinct trajectories between ages 18 and 40, wherein two thirds of the sample belonged to a family trajectory that did not involve living with children. Partnership-centered trajectories became more common across cohorts, and this increase came at the expense of trajectories characterized by singlehood among gay men and lesbian women. However, parenthood trajectories became less common among all LGB groups. Furthermore, family trajectories became more complex across cohorts, including more transitions, which coincides with trends in the general population. Yet we also find that family trajectories became less diverse among lesbian women and bisexual men, in contrast to the trend among gay men and the general population. The results demonstrate the dynamic, complex, and diverse nature of LGB individuals' family lives and why existing narratives of family-related demographic change should explicitly consider sexual minorities in demographic narratives.