Demography最新文献

Sea-level rise is likely to worsen the impacts of hurricanes, storm surges, and tidal flooding on coastal access to basic services. We investigate the historical impact of tidal flooding on mortality rates of the elderly population in coastal Florida using administrative records of individual deaths, demographics, and residential location combined with tidal gauge and high-resolution elevation data. We incorporate data capturing storm and precipitation events into our empirical model to distinguish between disruptions from routine sunny-day flooding and less predictable tropical storm-induced flooding. We find that a 1-standard-deviation (20-millimeter) increase in tidal flooding depth increases mortality rates by 0.46% to 0.60% among those aged 65 or older. Our estimates suggest that future sea-level rises may contribute to an additional 130 elderly deaths per year in Florida relative to 2019, all else being equal. The enhanced risk is concentrated among residents living more than nine minutes away from the nearest hospital. Results suggest that tidal flooding may augment elderly mortality risk by delaying urgent medical care.

Investigations into household structure in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) provide important insight into how families manage domestic life in response to resource allocation and caregiving needs during periods of rapid sociopolitical and health-related challenges. Recent evidence on household structure in many LMICs contrasts with long-standing viewpoints of worldwide convergence to a Western nuclearized household model. Here, we adopt a household-centered theoretical and methodological framework to investigate longitudinal patterns and dynamics of household structure in a rural South African setting during a period of high AIDS-related mortality and socioeconomic change. Data come from the Agincourt Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System (2003-2015). Using latent transition models, we derived six distinct household types by examining conditional interdependency between household heads' characteristics, members' age composition, and migration status. More than half of households were characterized by their complex and multigenerational profiles, with considerable within-typology variation in household size and dependency structure. Transition analyses showed stability of household types under female headship, while higher proportions of nuclearized household types dissolved over time. Household dissolution was closely linked to prior mortality experiences-particularly, following death of a male head. Our findings highlight the need to better conceptualize and contextualize household changes across populations and over time.

The measurement of sexual and gender identity in the United States has been evolving to generate more precise demographic estimates of the population and a better understanding of health and well-being. Younger cohorts of sexual- and gender-diverse adults are endorsing identities outside of the lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) labels. Current population-level surveys often include a category such as "something else" without providing further details, and doing so inadequately captures these diverse identities. In this research note, our analysis of the most recent federal data source to incorporate sexual and gender identity measures-the Household Pulse Survey-reveals that younger birth cohorts are more likely to select "something else" for their sexual identity and "none of these" for their gender identity. The observed sexual and gender identity response patterns across birth cohorts underscore the importance of developing and applying new strategies to directly measure sexual- and gender-diverse adults who identify with identities outside of those explicitly captured on surveys. The integration of sexual and gender identity measures in population-level surveys carries broader implications for civil rights and for addressing health inequities and therefore must be responsive to cohort differences in identification.

Married individuals have better health and lower mortality than nonmarried people. Studies show that when cohabitants are distinguished from other nonmarried groups, health differences between partnered and nonpartnered individuals become even more pronounced. Some researchers have argued that partnered individuals have better health and lower mortality because a partnership offers protective effects (protection); others have posited that partnered people have better health and lower mortality because healthy persons are more likely to form a union and less likely to dissolve it (selection). This study contributes to this debate by investigating health and mortality by partnership status in England and Wales and analyzing the causes of mortality differences. We use combined data from the British Household Panel Survey and the UK Household Longitudinal Study and apply a simultaneous-equations hazard model to control for observed and unobserved selection into partnerships. We develop a novel approach to identify frailty based on self-rated health. Our analysis shows that partnered individuals have significantly lower mortality than nonpartnered people. We observe some selection into and out of unions on unobserved health characteristics, but the mortality differences by partnership status persist. The study offers strong support for the marital protection hypothesis and extends it to nonmarital partnerships.

This study investigates the effects of welfare reform-a major policy shift in the United States that increased low-income mothers' employment and reliance on earnings instead of cash assistance-on the quality of the home environments mothers provide for their preschool-age children. Using empirical methods designed to identify plausibly causal effects, we estimate the effects of welfare reform on validated survey and observational measures of maternal behaviors that support children's cognitive skills and emotional adjustment and the material goods that parents purchase to stimulate their children's skill development. The results suggest that welfare reform did not affect the amount of time and material resources mothers devoted to cognitively stimulating activities with their young children. However, it significantly decreased emotional support provision scores, by approximately 0.3-0.4 standard deviations. The effects appear to be stronger for mothers with lower human capital. The findings provide evidence that welfare reform came at a cost to children in the form of lower quality parenting. They also underscore the importance of considering quality, and not just quantity, in assessing the effects of maternal work-incentive policies on parenting and children's home environments.

This manuscript examines the relationship between child mortality and subsequent fertility using longitudinal data on births and childhood deaths occurring among 15,291 Tanzanian mothers between 2000 and 2015. Generalized hazard regression analyses assess the effect of child loss on the hazard of conception, adjusting for child-level, mother-level, and contextual covariates. Results show that time to conception is most reduced if an index child dies during the subsequent birth interval, representing the combined effect of biological and volitional replacement. Deaths occurring during prior birth intervals were associated with accelerated time to conception during future intervals, consistent with hypothesized insurance effects of anticipating future child loss, but this effect is smaller than replacement effects. The analysis reveals that residence in areas of relatively high child mortality is associated with hastened parity progression, again consistent with the insurance hypothesis. Investigation of high-order interactions suggests that insurance effects tend to be greater in low-mortality communities, replacement effects tend to be stronger in high-mortality community contexts, and wealthier families tend to exhibit a weaker insurance response but a stronger replacement response to childhood mortality relative to poorer families.

Migration is selective, resulting in inequalities between migrants and nonmigrants. However, investigating migration selection is empirically challenging because combined pre- and post-migration data are rarely available. We propose an alternative approach to assessing internal migration selection by integrating genetic data, enabling an investigation of migration selection with cross-sectional data collected post-migration. Using data from the UK Biobank, we utilized standard tools from statistical genetics to conduct a genome-wide association study (GWAS) for migration distance. We then calculated genetic correlations to compare GWAS results for migration with those for other characteristics. Given that individual genetics are determined at conception, these analyses allow a unique exploration of the association between pre-migration characteristics and migration. Results are generally consistent with the healthy migrant literature: genetics correlated with longer migration distance are associated with higher socioeconomic status and better health. We also extended the analysis to 53 traits and found novel correlations between migration and several physical health, mental health, personality, and sociodemographic traits.

In this study, we provide an assessment of data accuracy from the 2020 Census. We compare block-level population totals from a sample of 173 census blocks in California across three sources: (1) the 2020 Census, which has been infused with error to protect respondent confidentiality; (2) the California Neighborhoods Count, the first independent enumeration survey of census blocks; and (3) projections based on the 2010 Census and subsequent American Community Surveys. We find that, on average, total population counts provided by the U.S. Census Bureau at the block level for the 2020 Census are not biased in any consistent direction. However, subpopulation totals defined by age, race, and ethnicity are highly variable. Additionally, we find that inconsistencies across the three sources are amplified in large blocks defined in terms of land area or by total housing units, blocks in suburban areas, and blocks that lack broadband access.

This research note presents a new perspective on the rural mortality penalty in the United States. While previous work has documented a growing rural mortality penalty, there has been a lack of attention to heterogeneity in trends at the intersection of region, race, and ethnicity. We use age-adjusted mortality rates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to examine the rural mortality penalty by region, race, and ethnicity for 1999-2016 (N = 44,792,050 deaths) and stratify by 2006 National Center for Health Statistics metropolitan-nonmetropolitan classifications. We find substantial variation at the intersection of region, race, and ethnicity, revealing heterogeneity in the rural penalty and-in some cases-a rural mortality advantage. For the Black/African American population, the rural mortality penalty is observed only in the South. On the other hand, for Hispanic/Latino populations, a small but persistent rural mortality penalty is present only in the South and the West. There is a rural mortality penalty in all regions for White and American Indian/Alaska Native populations. However, for the latter, there is substantial variation in the magnitude of the penalty by region of residence. This research documents heterogeneous patterns when the rural mortality penalty is analyzed by region, race, and ethnicity in the United States.

An influential literature on the Developmental Origins of Health and Disease (DOHaD) has documented that poor conditions in utero lead to higher risk of cardiovascular disease at older ages. Evidence from low-income countries (LICs) has hitherto been missing, despite the fact that adverse in utero conditions are far more common in LICs. We find that Malawians exposed in utero to the 1949 Nyasaland famine have better cardiovascular health 70 years later. These findings highlight the potential context specificity of the DOHaD hypothesis, with in utero adversity having different health implications among aging LIC individuals who were exposed to persistent poverty.