Demography最新文献

The latter half of the twentieth century saw dramatic increases in mothers' labor force participation rates, accompanied by declining job quality and increasing labor market inequality. Despite evidence of growing labor market inequality in wages and benefits, less is known about how job quality changed with respect to work schedules. This study tests the hypothesis that mothers' employment in jobs with nonstandard schedules increased between 1988 and 2019 and that such schedules are increasingly concentrated among mothers with lower education levels, single mothers, and mothers of color, who are overrepresented in low-wage jobs. We find that mothers' employment in jobs with nonstandard schedules stayed relatively flat at 15% to 16%, and the prevalence of weekend work increased from 15% to 18%. Moreover, we find growing disparities in who works nonstandard schedules. The propensity to work such schedules increased among mothers with less than a college degree, single mothers living without other adults, and Black mothers relative to mothers with a college degree, married mothers, and White mothers, respectively. Additionally, mothers are more likely to work nonstandard schedules for involuntary reasons than before the Great Recession.

Research indicates that a new pattern of motherhood well-being advantage emerged in the 2010s for U.S. women. Although scholars have argued that maternal mental health worsened during the COVID-19 pandemic, whether the parenthood mental health gap changed during the pandemic is unclear. Using data from the National Health Interview Survey (N  =  29,241), this study examines the parenthood gap in yearly and quarterly changes in anxiety and depression during 2019-2021 for women aged 18-59, with attention to variation by partnership status. The results show that changes in anxiety and depression prevalence were similar across parental and partnership statuses, with indications that maternal advantages expanded among women who were single. In October-December 2020, anxiety prevalence increased more for single women without minor children of their own living in the household ("nonmothers") than for single or partnered mothers. In April-June 2021, anxiety declined among mothers, especially single mothers, but remained higher than before the pandemic among single nonmothers. Some of these group differences in anxiety changes became nonsignificant after we controlled for household economic conditions, which were better in 2021 than in 2019 for all groups, particularly single mothers. In sum, trends in motherhood mental health advantages continued throughout the pandemic.

Will the extra years of life gained by the increase in life expectancy be lived in good or poor health? Because forecasts support social, economic, and medical decisions, as well as individuals' choices, there is a clear rationale for forecasting healthy life expectancy (HLE). However, only a limited number of models are available to forecast HLE. We suggest two models to forecast health and mortality simultaneously and coherently. One model is based on the Sullivan method to estimate HLE, and the second one is based on the multistate life table method. Both models use Compositional Data Analysis to account for the coherence between health and mortality. Mortality and health at age 50 and older is forecast for French, Spanish, Swedish, and United Kingdom females. Both models provide nonsignificantly different estimates and forecasts of HLE, in most cases. In addition, the models can improve forecast accuracy compared with other forecast models.

Measures of kinship size are increasingly common in sociodemographic studies. The size and structure of older adults' kinship networks can be ascertained via direct observation in a social survey or modeled using demographic techniques. Each approach has advantages and disadvantages, but whether the two provide comparable estimates of kinship size is an open question. In this research note, we answer this question using social survey data and demographic models to estimate the size of older adults' kinship networks in 22 European countries. We find an impressively high association between the two approaches, with important variations by the kin type considered. We discuss the reasons for the divergence in the estimates and provide guidance for researchers interested in using either approach to quantify kinship size.

Paid parental benefits, with individually earmarked time for mothers and fathers, aim to promote gender equality in labor force participation, wages, and childcare. The Canadian province of Québec expanded parental benefits over and above the federal policy in 2006 with the Québec Parental Insurance Plan (QPIP), which introduced paid paternity leave and lower eligibility criteria as its key features. This policy aimed to increase gender equality by encouraging fathers to use parental benefits and expanding coverage to low-income parents. Using Canadian administrative data and exploiting the policy changes in 2006 as a natural experiment, we examine the effects of Québec's extended parental benefits policy on parents' employment and earnings over 10 years after the transition to parenthood. First, we find that fathers' use of parental benefits had positive long-run effects on mothers' and fathers' earnings 8-10 years after a first birth. Second, we find that among women with low earnings before the transition to parenthood, QPIP increased the likelihood of employment 1-7 years after a first birth. This article provides the first evidence that a policy dramatically expanding parental benefits and encouraging use among both parents can have long-term positive effects on parents' labor market outcomes.

We examine whether union dissolution is associated with partners' (mis)match on political preferences, defined as self-reported closeness, intention to vote, or reported vote for a specific party. Previous studies have shown that partners' heterogamy by ethnicity, education, and other dimensions increases the risk of union dissolution because of differences between partners in lifestyles, attitudes, and beliefs or because of disapproval from family and community members. We posit that similar arguments can apply to political heterogamy and test this hypothesis using UK data from the British Household Panel Study and the UK Household Longitudinal Study. The data offer a unique opportunity to assess the role of heterogamy by political preferences while controlling for heterogamy in other domains and for other partners' characteristics over a long period (1991-2019). The data also facilitate a more specific analysis of the referendum on the United Kingdom's permanence in the European Union (known as the Brexit referendum). We find a positive association between political heterogamy and union dissolution, which is as strong as some other forms of heterogamy. The role of diverging opinions on the Brexit referendum in union dissolutions appears to be even more important than the role of partners' differing party preferences.

Although the mean U.S. ideal family size has remained relatively stable in recent years, reflecting a widespread preference for two-child families, we know very little about the strength of this preference among young adults. To examine the relative strength of preferences for family size relative to other attributes of family life, in this research note we conduct a forced-choice online conjoint survey experiment using a nationally representative sample of 1,785 U.S. women aged 18-35. We find that when family size is included as one of six attributes in a family scenario, the probability of preferring scenarios with two children is not significantly different from the probability of preferring scenarios with zero-, one-, or three-child families, net of other attributes; four-child scenarios are significantly less preferred than two-child scenarios. Evaluation of the relative magnitude of different attribute effect sizes shows that a preference for two-child scenarios is comparatively less important than preference for many of the other attributes. Our findings suggest that even if the mean ideal family size remains at or above two children in standard survey research, preferences for two-child families are surprisingly weak in hypothetical scenarios that account for competing family demands.

The number and age of kin determine the companionship and support individuals provide or receive. Over recent decades, fertility and mortality rates have changed considerably, with varying speeds across countries. We investigate the changes in kinship networks in response to time-varying demographic rates, with a focus on the speed of change. We start with stylized demographic trajectories to determine the separate effects of fertility and mortality. First, we find that differences in the number of living kin depend strongly on the speed of fertility decline. In a fast fertility transition (as in China), a 65-year-old could have 20% fewer daughters than a 70-year-old in a specific year. However, in a slow transition (as in India), this difference is only 7%. Second, the speed of fertility decline has large effects on the mean and variability of the ages of kin. Third, a cohort perspective provides valuable insight into the changes in the number and age of kin. Fourth, we show how changes in the age pattern of mortality affect kinship for individuals at different ages. We use these conclusions to examine and understand kin dynamics based on empirical demographic data from four illustrative countries (Thailand, Indonesia, Ghana, and Nigeria).

Prior research has consistently documented a more pronounced negative impact of parental separation on educational attainment among children from families with high socioeconomic status (SES). This study leverages molecular data to investigate how the parental separation penalty on educational attainment varies by SES and children's genetic propensity for education. We replicate the analysis on two distinct datasets, the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health and the Health and Retirement Study. We use parametric (ordinary least-squares and logit) and nonparametric models (LOWESS), with college attainment and years of education as the dependent variables and the mother's education as an indicator of family SES. Our results show that the parental separation penalty clusters among high-SES students with a low genetic propensity for education. For high-SES students with nonseparated parents, the probability of college attainment and completing more years of education is largely independent of their genetic propensity for education but decreases if they have a low genetic propensity for education and their parents separate. These findings suggest that when high-SES parents separate, they experience a reduced capacity to compensate for their children's low genetic propensity for education to boost college attainment and years of education.

We examine the prevalence of gender transitions in Sweden over time and document the sociodemographic characteristics of people transitioning in different periods. Using administrative data covering the transgender population from 1973 through 2020, we analyze two common events in a gender transition: the earliest diagnosis of gender incongruence and the change of legal gender. Our research note presents three main findings. First, the measured prevalence rates of diagnoses and legal gender changes are relatively low in all periods, although they have increased substantially since the early 2010s. Second, the recent increase in transition prevalence is most pronounced among people in early adulthood; in particular, young transgender men drive an increase in overall transition rates through 2018, followed by moderate declines in 2019 and 2020. Third, transgender men and women have substantially lower socioeconomic outcomes than cisgender men and women, regardless of the age at which they transition or the historical period. They are also considerably less likely to be in a legal union or reside with children. These findings highlight the continued economic and social vulnerability of the transgender population.