Demography最新文献

Past research suggests that resilience to health hazards increases with age, potentially because less resilient individuals die at earlier ages, leaving behind their more resilient peers. Using lifetime cigarette smoking as a model health hazard, we examined whether accelerated epigenetic aging (indicating differences in the speed of individuals' underlying aging process) helps explain age-related resilience in a nationally representative sample of 3,783 older U.S. adults from the Health and Retirement Study. Results of mediation moderation analyses indicated that participants aged 86 or older showed a weaker association between lifetime cigarette smoking and mortality relative to participants aged 76-85 and a weaker association between smoking and multimorbidity relative to all younger cohorts. This moderation effect was mediated by a reduced association between smoking pack-years and epigenetic aging. This research helps identify subpopulations of particularly resilient individuals and identifies epigenetic aging as a potential mechanism explaining this process. Interventions in younger adults could utilize epigenetic aging estimates to identify the most vulnerable individuals and intervene before adverse health outcomes, such as chronic disease morbidity or mortality, manifest.

Academics and policymakers have suggested making flexible work arrangements (FWAs) the default in workplaces to promote a family-friendly workplace culture conducive to having and raising children. However, systematic research investigating how FWAs, as a long-term approach to negotiating work-family spheres, are related to fertility among dual-earner heterosexual couples is limited. Drawing on the linked-lives perspective, we theorize the relationship between FWAs and fertility among couples and potential variation depending on the interplay of both spouses' work and family characteristics. We test our hypotheses using longitudinal couple-level dyadic data in the United Kingdom (2010-2022). We find that although FWA availability alone is unrelated to fertility, wives' (not husbands') FWA use is significantly associated with a higher probability of experiencing a first birth. Moreover, the effect of wives' FWA use is particularly pronounced when both spouses work in professional and managerial occupations and when husbands contribute a larger proportion of income and at least equal housework. This study reveals a gendered effect of FWAs on fertility across work-family arrangements, deepening our understanding of couple-level dynamics in the fertility process.

Population aging is an important and increasingly relevant area of study for demographers. A growing body of research seeks to determine how long-term changes in births, mortality, and migration-the three drivers of any demographic process-have shaped the present aging situation. Using variable-r decomposition and cohort data, this research note presents a formula for the change in the old-age dependency ratio to determine the extent to which relative changes in births, as well as in mortality and migration rates, contribute to aging. This perspective provides a careful and in-depth picture of aging and contributes to the debate concerning whether changes in births or mortality have had the strongest effect on population aging. When applied to Australia, the United States, and several European populations, the decomposition of the old-age dependency ratio shows that aging occurred in all populations and that changes in both births and mortality contributed to this aging. Analysis of these populations demonstrates that although they differed regarding which of these factors contributed more, changes in births prevailed as the more significant factor. In nearly all populations, migration decreased the rate of population aging.

Diverging mortality trends at different ages motivate the monitoring of lifespan inequality alongside life expectancy. Conclusions are ambiguous when life expectancy and lifespan inequality move in the same direction or when inequality measures display inconsistent trends. We propose using nonparametric dominance analysis to obtain a robust ranking of age-at-death distributions. Application to U.S. period life tables for 2006-2021 reveals that, until 2014, more recent years generally dominate earlier years, implying improvement if longer lifespans that are less unequally distributed are considered better. Improvements were more pronounced for non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic individuals than for non-Hispanic White individuals. Since 2014, for all subpopulations-particularly Hispanics-earlier years often dominate more recent years, indicating worsening age-at-death distributions if shorter and more unequal lifespans are considered worse. Dramatic deterioration of the distributions in 2020-2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic is most evident for Hispanic individuals.

The economic consequences of divorce and separation for women are commonly associated with the chronic strain model, according to which women's losses are large and persistent. This research note shifts the focus to a crisis model highlighting women's potential of, and routes to, recovery from initial losses. Drawing on German Socio-Economic Panel data (1984-2021) on women in marital and cohabiting unions (N ∼ 27,000 women, N ∼ 3,400 divorces and separations), we use fixed-effects regression models and event-history models to analyze changes in equivalized monthly household income and poverty risk across the process of divorce and separation. Results show that most women recovered from their initial economic declines. Although initial losses were common and often sizable, large fractions of women eventually returned to or exceeded the household income expected in the absence of divorce and separation. Recovery was facilitated by the "traditional" route of repartnering and the "modern" route of women mobilizing their productive skills. Both routes appeared more important than the absence of barriers, such as children in the household. We conclude that for the majority of women, the economic consequences of divorce and separation are better described as a temporary crisis than as a chronic strain.

International migration is increasingly characterized by the need to evade threats to survival. Nevertheless, demographic understandings of how families-rather than individuals alone-decide to migrate or separate in response to threats remain limited. Focusing on the recent humanitarian crisis in Venezuela, we analyze 2012-2016 data on Venezuelans in Venezuela and 2018-2020 data on UNHCR (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees)-registered Venezuelans in nine receiving countries to illuminate the evolution of threats Venezuelans sought to evade, how threat evasion transformed households away from previous norms, the selection of migrants into different receiving countries and household structures, and demographic disparities in migrants' odds of reporting changes to their household because of specific migration-related processes (e.g., leaving someone in Venezuela, leaving someone in another country). Results underscore a simultaneous escalation of economic, safety, and political concerns that informed Venezuelans' increasing intentions to out-migrate. Where Venezuelans migrated and who ended up in their households abroad varied by demographic background and migration experiences. Among UNHCR-registered Venezuelans, 43% left family members in Venezuela, and more than 10% left or were left behind by members in another country. Such household separations, however, were unevenly distributed across factors such as age, gender, and country of reception.

Labor migration has a profound effect on families, but evidence documenting the impact of migration on women left behind is still lacking. Utilizing the Matlab Health and Socioeconomic Surveys, we examined the roles of migration and families in four domains of empowerment for women in Bangladesh. We found that women with international migrant spouses saw significant improvements in economic empowerment, mobility, and decision-making relative to women with coresident spouses (p < .0001). However, women who lived in multigenerational households with their parents or in-laws experienced significant reductions in empowerment across these three domains. Both having a migrant spouse and living in a multigenerational household had negative effects on beliefs about gender equivalence and reduced joint decision-making for women. Results, which were robust to migration selection controls (including propensity approaches), indicate that the benefits of migration for women left behind might be diluted by family structures that perpetuate unequal gender dynamics.

A growing proportion of individuals adopt family caregiving roles. Family caregivers are the primary providers of long-term care in the United States yet limited federal policy supports exist, despite the known negative impacts of caregiving. There is also limited information about the prevalence of youth/young adult caregivers and the impacts of caregiving at formative ages in the United States. Our objective is to estimate the prevalence of youth caregivers and examine the association of caregiving with educational investments. We use the American Time Use Survey (2013-2019) to identify and describe youth caregivers (aged 15-18) and young adult caregivers (aged 19-22) and compare them with non-caregiving peers. We estimate that there are approximately 1,623,000 youth caregivers and 1,986,000 young adult caregivers, corresponding to 9.2% and 12.7% of these age groups, respectively. However, there is a wide range in the estimated prevalence per year, from approximately 364,000 to 2.8 million youth caregivers and from 353,000 to 2.2 million young adult caregivers, depending on caregiver definition. Unlike adult caregivers, we find that young men and women were nearly equally likely to provide care. We also find that non-White individuals are disproportionately represented as youth caregivers. Compared with non-caregiving peers, both youth and young adult caregivers are less likely to be enrolled in school and, among those enrolled in school, spend significantly less time on educational activities. Considering the association of caregiving among youth/young adults and education, policies supporting youth and young adult caregivers are critical.

Despite the persistence of relationships between historical racist violence and contemporary Black-White inequality, research indicates, in broad strokes, that the slavery-inequality relationship in the United States has changed over time. Identifying the timing of such change across states can offer insights into the underlying processes that generate Black-White inequality. In this study, we use integrated nested Laplace approximation models to simultaneously account for spatial and temporal features of panel data for Southern counties during the period spanning 1900 to 2018, in combination with data on the concentration of enslaved people from the 1860 census. Results provide the first evidence on the timing of changes in the slavery-economic inequality relationship and how changes differ across states. We find a region-wide decline in the magnitude of the slavery-inequality relationship by 1930, with declines traversing the South in a northeasterly-to-southwesterly pattern over the study period. Different paces in declines in the relationship across states suggest the expansion of institutionalized racism first in places with the longest-standing overt systems of slavery. Results provide guidance for further identifying intervening mechanisms-most centrally, the maturity of racial hierarchies and the associated diffusion of racial oppression across institutions, and how they affect the legacy of slavery in the United States.