Demography最新文献

The impact of immigrant parents' premigration family background on their second-generation children residing in destination countries remains underexplored in the literature on historical social mobility. Using multigenerational historical survey records from the Japanese American Research Project, this study investigates the influence of premigration socioeconomic and cultural background of Japan-born grandparents and parents on the social mobility of second-generation Japanese Americans born in the continental United States in the early twentieth century. The analysis reveals the enduring effects of family premigration socioeconomic status, as indicated by occupation and education, and culture conducive to upward mobility, proxied by samurai ancestry, on second-generation Japanese Americans' educational and income levels. These effects may extend back to their nonmigrant grandparents and possibly contrast with their European second-generation immigrant counterparts, who typically experienced upward mobility regardless of their family background. The results point to the critical role of origin-country socioeconomic status and culture in immigrant social mobility research, particularly for populations whose negative reception has hindered their resource access in their new countries.

Retirement is a critical life event for older people. Health scholars have scrutinized the health effects of retirement, but its consequences on age-related diseases and mortality are unclear. We extend this body of research by integrating measurements of biological age, representing the physiological decline preceding disease onset. Using data from the UK Biobank and a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, we estimated the effects of retirement on two biomarker-based biological age measures. Results showed that retirement significantly increases biological age for those induced to retire by the State Pension eligibility by 0.871-2.503 years, depending on sex and specific biological age measurement. Given the emerging scientific discussion about direct interventions to biological age to achieve additional improvements in population health, the positive effect of retirement on biological age has important implications for an increase in the State Pension eligibility age and its potential consequences on population health, public health care policy, and older people's labor force participation. Overall, this study provides novel empirical evidence contributing to the question of what social factors make people old.

Fertility rates among individuals in their 20s have fallen sharply across Europe over the past 50 years. The implications of delayed first births for fertility levels in modern family regimes remain little understood. Using microsimulation models of childbearing and partnership for the 1970-1979 birth cohorts in Italy, Great Britain, Sweden, and Norway, we implement fictive scenarios that reduce the risk of having a first child before age 30 and examine fertility recovery mechanisms for aggregate fertility indicators (the proportion of women with at least one, two, three, or four children; cohort completed fertility rate). Exposure to a first birth increases systematically in the ages following the simulated reduction in first-birth risks, leading to a structural recovery in childbearing that varies across countries according to their fertility and partnership regimes. Full recovery requires an increase in late first-birth risks, with greater increases in countries where late family formation is uncommon and average family sizes are larger: in scenarios where early fertility declines substantially (a linear decline from 50% at age 15 to 0% at age 30), first-birth risks above age 30 would have to increase by 54% in Great Britain, 40% in Norway and Sweden, and 20% in Italy to keep completed fertility constant.

Cohabitation and marriage are critical milestones during the transition to adulthood; however, there is limited research on the timing of young adults' first same-sex unions. There is some evidence that same-sex unions may be delayed, particularly for men. Further, formation of both same- and different-sex dating relationships, common among sexual minority young adults, may also extend to cohabitation and marriage. We used the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health to predict the timing of a first romantic union, defined as a cohabitation or marriage, among sexual minority young adults. We then distinguished between women and men and the timing of a different-sex versus a same-sex union. Compared with heterosexual young adults, lesbian and gay young adults entered a union at later ages (driven by men), whereas bisexual young adults entered a union at younger ages (driven by women). Lesbian and gay young adults who entered a first union with a same-sex partner did so at later ages than those who entered a first union with a different-sex partner. Results suggest that patterns of sexual minority dating relationship formation might extend to unions.

In this research note, we describe the results of the first validation study of the U.S. Census Bureau's new Community Resilience Estimates (CRE), which uses Census microdata to develop a tract-level vulnerability index for the United States. By employing administrative microdata to link Social Security Administration mortality records to CRE, we show that CRE quartiles provide more stable predictions of COVID-19 excess deaths than single demographic categorizations such as race or age, as well as other vulnerability measures including the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency's National Risk Index (NRI). We also use machine learning techniques to show that CRE provides more predictive power of COVID-19 excess deaths than standard socioeconomic predictors of vulnerability such as poverty and unemployment, as well as SVI and NRI. We find that a 10-percentage-point increase in a key CRE risk measure is associated with one additional death per neighborhood during the initial outbreak of COVID-19 in the United States. We conclude that, compared with alternative measures, CRE provides a more accurate predictor of community vulnerability to a disaster such as a pandemic.

A population's current growth rate is determined jointly by changes in fertility, mortality, and migration. This overall growth rate is also the average of age-specific growth rates, which can be decomposed into the result of historical changes in fertility, mortality, and migration. However, doing so requires more than 100 years of historical data, meaning that such analyses are possible only in a select few populations. In this research note, we propose an adapted version of the variable-r model to measure contributions to the population growth rate for countries with shorter demographic series. In addition, we extend this model to explore the contribution of subnational changes to the national population growth rate. Our results demonstrate that the age-specific growth rates obtained from short historical series, say 25 years, closely match those of the longer series. These abbreviated age-specific growth rates closely resemble the growth rate at birth of their respective cohorts, which is the major determinant of population growth, except at older ages where mortality becomes the main explanatory element. Exploring subnational populations, we find considerable heterogeneity in the age profile of the components of growth and find that the most populous regions tend to have an outsized impact on national-level growth.

The average age of infant deaths, a10, and the average number of years lived-in the age interval-by those dying between ages 1 and 5, a41, are important quantities allowing the construction of any life table including these ages. In many applications, the direct calculation of these parameters is not possible, so they are estimated using the infant mortality rate-or the death rate from 0 to 1-as a predictor. Existing methods are general approximations that do not consider the full variability in the age patterns of mortality below the age of 5. However, at the same level of mortality, under-five deaths can be more or less concentrated during the first weeks and months of life, thus resulting in very different values of a10 and a41. This article proposes an indirect estimation of these parameters by using a recently developed model of under-five mortality and taking advantage of a new, comprehensive database by detailed age-which is used for validation. The model adapts to a variety of inputs (e.g., rates, probabilities, or the proportion of deaths by sex or for both sexes combined), providing more flexibility for the users and increasing the precision of the estimates. This fresh perspective consolidates a new method that outperforms all previous approaches.

Despite rising numbers of only children in China, little is known about their family dynamics and well-being in adulthood-for example, how often they marry other only children and whether those in siblingless families have worse or better health than others. Theoretical expectations produce opposing predictions: siblings might provide social and emotional support and reduce parental caregiving pressures, but only children might receive more support from parents and grandparents. Using the 2010 China Family Panel Study, we examine marital sorting on Chinese adults' number of siblings and test whether sibling availability and sibling sorting are associated with subjective physical and mental health. Despite general perceptions that China has an exceedingly high prevalence of adults with no siblings that might produce very small families, results demonstrate a low prevalence of siblingless couples (i.e., both spouses are only children). Married adults with no siblings or siblings-in-law have better subjective physical health but similar levels of subjective mental health relative to their counterparts with siblings. The health advantages of siblingless marital unions are greater for rural and female adults. Declining sibling prevalence in China will shape future family demographic dynamics but appears less detrimental to population health than sometimes assumed.

We evaluate the performance of a widely used technique for imputing the legal immigration status of U.S. immigrants in survey data-the logical imputation method. We validate this technique by implementing it in a nationally representative survey of U.S. farmworkers that includes a well-regarded measure of legal status. When using this measure as a benchmark, the imputation algorithm correctly identifies the legal status of 78% of farmworkers. Of all the variables included in the algorithm, we find that Medicaid participation poses the greatest challenge for accuracy. Using the American Community Survey, we show that increased Medicaid enrollments stemming from the implementation of the Affordable Care Act in 2014 led to sizable changes in the share of immigrants imputed as legal over time and across space. We explore the implications of these changes for two previous studies and conclude that including Medicaid criteria in the imputation algorithm can significantly impact research findings. We also provide tools to gauge the sensitivity of results.