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Daily Diversity Flows: Racial and Ethnic Context Between Home and Work. 日常多样性流动:家庭与工作之间的种族和民族背景。
IF 3.6 1区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11567098
Chris Hess, Matt Hall

The racial and ethnic diversification of the U.S. population has transformed the demographic makeup of communities and rapidly increased exposure to diversity in American neighborhoods. Although diversity exposure occurs throughout people's daily lives, the conventional approach to describing diversity only at places of residence potentially understates the full extent of this phenomenon. In this study, we explore short-term, within-day changes in the diversity of different neighborhoods by considering U.S. workers' work and residential locations. Using estimates for daytime and nighttime populations among metropolitan census tracts, our empirical analyses investigate the extent to which the process of daytime mobility for work relates to changes in the racial and ethnic diversity of different spaces. Our results indicate widespread daily shifts toward diversity for most neighborhood types, especially those with residential (nighttime) populations that are predominantly Black, Latino, or Asian. We find that patterns of intraday diversification experienced minor declines across recent decades but are present in most metropolitan areas. Our findings also show that intraday changes in racial and ethnic diversity overlap with nonracial forms of daily diversity change. Further, average within-day changes in diversity are more pronounced in areas with greater residential segregation.

美国人口的种族和民族多样化改变了社区的人口构成,并迅速增加了美国社区的多样性。虽然人们在日常生活中都会接触到多样性,但只在居住地描述多样性的传统方法可能低估了这一现象的全部程度。在本研究中,我们通过考虑美国工人的工作地点和居住地点,探讨了不同社区多样性在一天之内的短期变化。利用对大都市人口普查区白天和夜间人口的估计,我们的实证分析调查了白天工作流动过程与不同空间种族和民族多样性变化的关系。我们的研究结果表明,在大多数社区类型中,尤其是那些黑人、拉丁裔或亚裔人口占主导地位的居住区(夜间),每天都在普遍向多样性转变。我们发现,近几十年来,日间多样化模式略有下降,但在大多数大都市地区依然存在。我们的研究结果还表明,种族和民族多样性的日内变化与非种族形式的日多样性变化相重叠。此外,在居住隔离程度较高的地区,多样性的日内平均变化更为明显。
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引用次数: 0
The Fertility Transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Role of Structural Change. 撒哈拉以南非洲的生育率转型:结构变革的作用》。
IF 3.6 1区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11587285
Nicolas Büttner, Michael Grimm, Isabel Günther, Kenneth Harttgen, Stephan Klasen

Despite recent economic growth and reductions in child mortality in many African countries, the region has experienced a slow fertility transition. In this study, we explore whether the slow structural economic change on the continent can explain this discrepancy. We construct a unique panel dataset combining Demographic and Health Surveys and nighttime light intensity data (an indicator of industrialization) from 57 countries at the subnational region level over three decades to analyze the drivers of fertility transitions across low- and middle-income countries. Our results confirm that household wealth, reduced child mortality, and female primary education are crucial for fertility declines. However, our analysis also highlights the importance of indicators of structural economic change, including the share of labor in nonagricultural occupations, industrialization, the share of women with higher education, and the formalization of the economy. Our simulations suggest that if high-fertility countries in sub-Saharan Africa underwent structural economic transformations comparable to those of other low- and middle-income countries with low fertility rates, their fertility levels could fall by 1 to 1.6 children.

尽管许多非洲国家最近实现了经济增长,儿童死亡率也有所下降,但该地区的生育率转型却十分缓慢。在本研究中,我们探讨了非洲大陆缓慢的经济结构变化是否可以解释这种差异。我们构建了一个独特的面板数据集,结合三十年来 57 个国家在次国家区域层面的人口与健康调查和夜间光照强度数据(工业化指标),分析了中低收入国家生育率转型的驱动因素。我们的结果证实,家庭财富、儿童死亡率降低和女性初等教育对生育率下降至关重要。然而,我们的分析也凸显了经济结构变化指标的重要性,包括非农业职业的劳动力比例、工业化、受过高等教育的女性比例以及经济的正规化。我们的模拟表明,如果撒哈拉以南非洲的高生育率国家经历与其他低生育率的中低收入国家相当的经济结构转型,其生育率水平可能会下降 1 到 1.6 个孩子。
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引用次数: 0
A Data Portrait of Cisgender, Transgender, and Gender-Nonconforming Populations in the United States: A Research Note. 美国同性、变性和性别不符人群的数据画像:研究说明。
IF 3.6 1区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11569501
Lawrence Stacey

The transgender population is a critically underresearched population in the United States, owing to rare measures on national and state-level surveys that ask about sex and gender or transgender identification. Consequently, we know relatively less about the sociodemographic, socioeconomic, family, and health lives of gender minorities. In this research note, I use population-level data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System to provide a data portrait of cisgender, transgender, and gender-nonconforming populations on a range of sociodemographic (e.g., sexual identity, race and ethnicity), socioeconomic (e.g., education, homeownership), family (e.g., union status), and health (e.g., number of poor mental health days) characteristics. Results reveal that gender minorities are younger than cisgender men and cisgender women and are disproportionately sexual minorities and people of color. Gender minority groups also experience lower socioeconomic status, report drastically different family lives, and bear the burden of worse health compared with cisgender people. I conclude by contending that descriptive research of this nature can illuminate compositional differences between cisgender and gender minority populations, provide rationales for adjusting for certain characteristics, and highlight potential explanatory mechanisms to make better sense of well-established findings (e.g., the transgender health disadvantage).

在美国,变性人群体是一个研究严重不足的群体,这是因为在国家和州一级的调查中,很少有关于性和性别或变性身份的调查。因此,我们对性别少数群体的社会人口、社会经济、家庭和健康生活的了解相对较少。在本研究报告中,我利用美国疾病控制和预防中心行为风险因素监测系统的人口级数据,提供了顺性性别、跨性别和性别不符人群在社会人口(如性身份、种族和民族)、社会经济(如教育、房屋所有权)、家庭(如婚姻状况)和健康(如精神健康不良天数)等方面的数据特征。结果显示,性别少数群体的年龄小于顺性别男性和顺性别女性,而且在性取向上属于少数群体和有色人种的比例过高。性别少数群体的社会经济地位也较低,他们报告的家庭生活也大相径庭,与顺性别者相比,他们承受着更糟糕的健康负担。最后,我认为这种性质的描述性研究可以揭示顺性别人群和性别少数人群之间的构成差异,为调整某些特征提供依据,并突出潜在的解释机制,从而更好地理解已被证实的研究结果(如变性人的健康劣势)。
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引用次数: 0
Eight Decades of Educational Assortative Mating: A Research Note. 教育同类交配八十年:研究说明。
IF 3.5 1区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-09-18 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11558914
Noah Hirschl,Christine R Schwartz,Elia Boschetti
Recent social and economic trends in the United States, including increasing economic inequality, women's growing educational advantage, and the rise of online dating, have ambiguous implications for patterns of educational homogamy. In this research note, we examine changes in educational assortative mating in the United States over the last eight decades (1940 to 2020) using the U.S. decennial censuses and the American Community Survey, extending and expanding earlier work by Schwartz and Mare. We find that the rise in educational homogamy noted by Schwartz and Mare has not continued. Increases in educational homogamy stalled around 1990 and began reversing in the 2000s. We find a growing tendency for marriages to cross educational boundaries, but a college degree remains the strongest dividing line to intermarriage. A key trend explaining this new pattern is women's increasing tendency to marry men with less education than themselves. If not for this trend, homogamy would have continued increasing until the early 2010s. We also show substantial heterogeneity by race, ethnicity, and nativity and among same- versus different-sex couples.
美国最近的社会和经济趋势,包括经济不平等的加剧、女性教育优势的增加以及在线约会的兴起,对教育同配模式产生了模糊的影响。在本研究报告中,我们利用美国十年一次的人口普查和美国社区调查,研究了过去八十年(1940 年至 2020 年)美国教育同配现象的变化,延伸并扩展了 Schwartz 和 Mare 早期的研究成果。我们发现,Schwartz 和 Mare 所指出的教育同配现象的上升并没有持续下去。教育同配现象的增长在 1990 年左右停滞,并在 2000 年代开始逆转。我们发现,婚姻跨越教育界限的趋势越来越明显,但大学学历仍然是通婚的最强分界线。解释这种新模式的一个关键趋势是,女性越来越倾向于嫁给教育程度比自己低的男性。如果没有这一趋势,同妻现象会一直持续到 2010 年代初。我们还显示了不同种族、民族、出生地以及同性和异性配偶之间的巨大异质性。
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引用次数: 0
Intergenerational Power Shift and the Rise of Nonarranged Marriages Among Refugees. 代际权力转移与难民非协议婚姻的兴起。
IF 3.5 1区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-09-17 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11555087
Andrew D Foster,Merve Betül Gökçe,Murat Güray Kırdar
The experiences of war and refugee status can alter intrafamily dynamics, with implications for family formation, including marriage. We use the nationally representative Syrian Migrant Sample of the 2018 Turkey Demographic Health Survey (TDHS-S) to conduct a duration analysis of marriage outcomes among Syrian refugees in Turkey, tracking women throughout their residence in prewar Syria (before the conflict began in 2011), postwar Syria (after the conflict began but before arrival in Turkey), and Turkey. We find that early marriage was more prominent among refugees who were unmarried at the time of migration than among those married before migration; the mean marriage age dropped from 19.6 in prewar Syria to 19.1 in postwar Syria and 18.1 in Turkey. Using the TDHS-S and prewar Syrian surveys, we show that this finding aligns with the observed declines in household income and young women's opportunity cost of marriage. Our duration analysis also reveals a notable shift from traditional arranged marriages to more modern marriage forms among refugees in Turkey. An intergenerational power shift might drive the shift toward nonarranged marriages. After arrival in Turkey, wealth and employment of parents decline among refugees. In contrast, Syrian youth in Turkey have higher age-adjusted employment rates than in prewar Syria. Moreover, nonarranged marriages increase more among demographic groups with stronger intergenerational power shifts than among groups with weaker shifts.
战争经历和难民身份会改变家庭内部动态,对包括婚姻在内的家庭组建产生影响。我们利用2018年土耳其人口健康调查(TDHS-S)中具有全国代表性的叙利亚移民样本,对土耳其境内叙利亚难民的婚姻结果进行了持续时间分析,跟踪妇女在战前叙利亚(2011年冲突开始前)、战后叙利亚(冲突开始后但抵达土耳其前)和土耳其的整个居住过程。我们发现,与移民前已婚的难民相比,移民时未婚的难民早婚现象更为突出;平均结婚年龄从战前叙利亚的 19.6 岁降至战后叙利亚的 19.1 岁和土耳其的 18.1 岁。通过使用 TDHS-S 和战前叙利亚调查,我们发现这一结果与观察到的家庭收入和年轻女性结婚机会成本的下降相吻合。我们的持续时间分析还揭示了土耳其难民从传统包办婚姻向更现代的婚姻形式的显著转变。代际间的权力转移可能会推动向非包办婚姻的转变。抵达土耳其后,难民父母的财富和就业率都有所下降。相比之下,土耳其境内叙利亚青年的年龄调整后就业率高于战前的叙利亚。此外,与代际权力转移较弱的群体相比,代际权力转移较强的人口群体中的非包办婚姻增加得更多。
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引用次数: 0
Intergenerational Transmission of Divorce in Sweden, 1920-2015. 1920-2015 年瑞典离婚的代际传递。
IF 3.5 1区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-09-13 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11550717
Maria Stanfors,Martin Bergvall
Many studies demonstrate an intergenerational transmission of divorce with a focus primarily on more recent decades; however, the extent to which this relationship is deeply rooted or has changed over time remains unclear. Explanations, including sociodemographic and interpersonal factors, have been offered as links between parental divorce and the stability of offspring's marriage. We use individual-level longitudinal data from the Scanian Economic-Demographic Database to estimate the intergenerational transmission of divorce among first marriages in Sweden over the period 1920-2015. Our investigation focuses on the correlation between parental divorce and offspring's divorce during the transition from a low- to a high-divorce regime. Findings reveal surprising stability in the transmission despite fundamental societal change over the years. Notably, the risk of divorce is highest when either the wife or both spouses have experienced parental divorce. Moreover, the transmission of divorce across time appears to be stronger and more stable for women than for men. These results suggest the intergenerational transmission of divorce is part of the divorce transition and highlight the role of women's independence in this intricate but not yet fully understood process.
许多研究表明,离婚会代代相传,主要集中在最近几十年;然而,这种关系在多大程度上根深蒂固或随着时间的推移而发生变化,仍然不清楚。父母离婚与后代婚姻稳定性之间的联系有多种解释,包括社会人口因素和人际关系因素。我们利用斯堪的纳维亚经济-人口数据库(Scanian Economic-Demographic Database)中的个人层面纵向数据,估算了 1920-2015 年间瑞典初婚者离婚的代际传播情况。我们的研究重点是父母离婚与后代离婚之间的相关性,即在从低离婚率向高离婚率过渡的过程中,父母离婚与后代离婚之间的相关性。研究结果表明,尽管多年来社会发生了根本性的变化,但这种传导关系却具有惊人的稳定性。值得注意的是,当妻子或夫妻双方都经历过父母离婚时,离婚风险最高。此外,与男性相比,女性离婚的跨代传递似乎更强、更稳定。这些结果表明,离婚的代际传递是离婚过渡的一部分,并强调了妇女的独立性在这一错综复杂但尚未完全理解的过程中的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Changes in Family Structure and Increasing Care Gaps in the United States, 2015-2050. 2015-2050 年美国家庭结构的变化和护理差距的扩大。
IF 3.5 1区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11551558
Huijing Wu,Rachel Margolis,Ashton Verdery,Sarah E Patterson
Research on caregiving in the United States has not clearly identified the scope of the gap between care needed and care received and the changes implied by ongoing and anticipated shifts in family structure. This article examines the magnitude of contemporary gaps in care among older adults in the United States and how they are likely to evolve through 2050. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study (1998-2014) to estimate care gaps, operationalized as having difficulties with activities of daily living (ADLs) or instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) but not receiving care. We also estimate variation in care gaps by family structure. Then, we use data from demographic microsimulation to explore the implications of demographic and family changes for the evolution of care gaps. We establish that care gaps are common, with 13% and 5% of adults aged 50 or older reporting a care gap for ADLs and IADLs, respectively. Next, we find that adults with neither partners nor children have the highest care gap rates. Last, we project that the number of older adults with care gaps will increase by more than 30% between 2015 and 2050-twice the rate of population growth. These results provide a benchmark for understanding the scope of the potential problem and considering how care gaps can be filled.
有关美国照料问题的研究尚未明确确定所需照料与所获照料之间的差距范围,以及家庭结构正在发生和预期发生的变化所带来的变化。本文研究了当代美国老年人护理差距的程度,以及到 2050 年这些差距可能会如何演变。我们利用健康与退休研究(Health and Retirement Study,1998-2014 年)的数据来估算照护差距,即在日常生活活动(ADLs)或工具性日常生活活动(IADLs)中遇到困难但没有得到照护。我们还估算了不同家庭结构在护理缺口方面的差异。然后,我们利用人口微观模拟数据来探讨人口和家庭变化对护理差距演变的影响。我们发现护理缺口很常见,50 岁及以上的成年人中分别有 13% 和 5% 的人报告在日常活动和非日常活动方面存在护理缺口。接下来,我们发现既无伴侣也无子女的成年人的护理缺口率最高。最后,我们预测,在 2015 年至 2050 年期间,存在护理缺口的老年人数量将增加 30% 以上,是人口增长率的两倍。这些结果为了解潜在问题的范围以及考虑如何填补护理缺口提供了一个基准。
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引用次数: 0
Contextual Boundaries: Skin Tone Stratification and Skill Transferability Among Mexicans in the Age of Mass Migration. 语境边界:大规模移民时代墨西哥人的肤色分层和技能可转移性》(Contextual Boundaries: Skin Tone Stratification and Skill Transferability Among Mexicans in the Age of Mass Migration)。
IF 3.5 1区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11547756
Peter Catron,María Vignau Loría,Sarah Farr
An extensive literature has focused on the association between human, social, and economic capital and better immigrant economic attainment, and how these characteristics contribute to stratification among members of the same group. However, few studies have explored how racialization processes contribute to these within-group differences. We examine the role of intragroup differences in skin tone in stratifying outcomes among Mexican immigrants in the early twentieth century. We create a new dataset of 1910-1940 Mexican border-crossing records that we then link to the U.S. 1940 census. We use characteristics at entry to predict income in 1940 and find that-in line with dominant assimilation theories-standard measures of capital are associated with within-group attainment differences. However, we also find skin tone to be a source of within-group stratification: being perceived as having darker skin is associated with lower subsequent economic attainment than being perceived as having lighter skin. Furthermore, whereas human and social capital transcended context to allow migrants to transfer those skills anywhere, the effect of skin tone was significant only in Texas and not in other major receiving places like California. We argue that although standard measures of assimilation typically predict later outcomes, the stratifying effect of skin tone has long been a feature of Mexican immigration.
大量文献集中研究了人力资本、社会资本和经济资本与更好的移民经济地位之间的联系,以及这些特征如何导致同一群体成员之间的分层。然而,很少有研究探讨种族化过程是如何导致这些群体内差异的。我们研究了 20 世纪初墨西哥移民中肤色的群体内差异在分层结果中的作用。我们创建了一个 1910-1940 年墨西哥过境记录的新数据集,然后将其与美国 1940 年人口普查联系起来。我们利用入境时的特征来预测 1940 年的收入,发现与主流同化理论一致的是,标准的资本衡量标准与群体内的成就差异相关。然而,我们还发现肤色是群体内分层的一个来源:与被认为肤色较浅的人相比,被认为肤色较深的人随后的经济成就较低。此外,虽然人力资本和社会资本超越了环境,使移民可以将这些技能转移到任何地方,但肤色的影响只在得克萨斯州显著,而在加利福尼亚州等其他主要接收地并不显著。我们认为,虽然同化的标准措施通常可以预测以后的结果,但肤色的分层效应一直是墨西哥移民的一个特点。
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引用次数: 0
Revisiting the Occupational Health Impact of Right-to-Work Laws: A Research Note. 重新审视工作权法对职业健康的影响:研究说明。
IF 3.5 1区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11556182
Emma Zang,Qinyou Hu,Zitong Wang
This research note reevaluates the occupational health impact of right-to-work (RTW) legislation, incorporating recent developments in causal inference techniques. In an era marked by an uptick in the adoption of anti-union legislation and increases in workplace fatalities and injuries, it is particularly urgent to examine the extent to which RTW laws affect workers' health. Using a state-year-level dataset spanning 28 years and collected from multiple data sources, we apply an innovative generalized synthetic control method to overcome several limitations of the traditional two-way fixed-effects approach to examine the effect of RTW laws on occupational fatal injuries as well as various other health outcomes. Robustness checks were conducted using a wide range of alternative methods for two-way fixed-effects adjustments. In contrast with findings from previous studies, we found null effects on occupational fatal injuries, as well as on all other health outcomes. Overall, our results indicate that findings from previous studies are based on very thin empirical evidence, with potentially underestimated standard errors and unobserved confounders. Our results highlight the importance of revisiting research questions using updated methodological tools.
本研究报告结合因果推论技术的最新发展,重新评估了工作权(RTW)立法对职业健康的影响。在反工会立法增多、工作场所伤亡事故增加的时代,研究工作权法对工人健康的影响尤为迫切。我们利用从多个数据源收集到的跨度长达 28 年的州级数据集,采用创新的广义合成控制方法,克服了传统双向固定效应方法的若干局限性,考察了复工法对职业致命伤害以及其他各种健康结果的影响。使用多种双向固定效应调整替代方法进行了稳健性检验。与以往研究结果不同的是,我们发现该法对职业性致命伤害以及所有其他健康结果的影响均为零。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,以往的研究结果基于非常薄弱的经验证据,可能存在低估的标准误差和未观察到的混杂因素。我们的结果凸显了使用最新方法工具重新审视研究问题的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
The Distribution of Carceral Harm: County-Level Jail Incarceration and Mortality by Race, Sex, and Age. Carceral Harm 的分布:按种族、性别和年龄划分的县级监狱监禁和死亡率。
IF 3.5 1区 社会学 Q1 DEMOGRAPHY Pub Date : 2024-09-11 DOI: 10.1215/00703370-11555025
Anneliese N Luck
Jail incarceration remains an overlooked yet crucial component of the U.S. carceral system. Although a growing literature has examined the mortality costs associated with residing in areas with high levels of incarceration, far less is known about how local jails shape this burden at the intersection of race, sex, and age. In this study, I examine the relationship between county-level jail incarceration and age-specific mortality for non-Hispanic Black and White men and women, uniquely leveraging race-specific jail rates to account for the unequal racial distribution of jail exposures. This study finds evidence of positive associations between mortality and jail incarceration: this association peaks in late adulthood (ages 50-64), when increases in jail rates are associated with roughly 3% increases in mortality across all race-sex groups. However, patterns vary at the intersection of race, sex, and age. In particular, I find more marked and consistent penalties among women than among men. Additionally, a distinctly divergent age pattern emerges among Black men, who face insignificant but negative associations at younger ages but steep penalties at older ages-significantly larger among those aged 65 or older relative to their White male and Black female counterparts. Evidence further suggests that the use of race-neutral incarceration measures in prior work may mask the degree of harm associated with carceral contexts, because the jail rate for the total population underestimates the association between jail rates and mortality across nearly all race-age-sex combinations. These findings highlight the need for future ecological research to differentiate between jail and prison incarceration, consider the demographic distribution of incarceration's harms, and incorporate racialized measures of exposure so that we may better capture the magnitude of harm associated with America's carceral state.
监狱监禁仍然是美国carceral系统中一个被忽视却又至关重要的组成部分。尽管越来越多的文献研究了居住在高监禁率地区与死亡率相关的成本,但对于地方监狱如何在种族、性别和年龄的交叉点上形成这种负担,人们所知甚少。在本研究中,我考察了县级监狱监禁与非西班牙裔黑人和白人男女特定年龄死亡率之间的关系,利用特定种族的监狱服刑率来解释监狱暴露的不平等种族分布。这项研究发现了死亡率与监狱监禁之间正相关的证据:这种关联在成年晚期(50-64 岁)达到顶峰,此时监狱监禁率的增加与所有种族-性别群体约 3% 的死亡率增加相关。然而,在种族、性别和年龄的交叉点上,模式却有所不同。特别是,我发现女性比男性受到的惩罚更明显、更一致。此外,在黑人男性中出现了明显不同的年龄模式,他们在较年轻时面临不显著的负相关,但在较年长时则面临急剧的惩罚--与白人男性和黑人女性相比,65 岁或以上的黑人男性面临的惩罚明显更大。有证据进一步表明,之前的研究中使用种族中立的监禁措施可能会掩盖与监禁环境相关的危害程度,因为总人口的监禁率低估了几乎所有种族-年龄-性别组合的监禁率与死亡率之间的关联。这些发现突出表明,未来的生态学研究需要区分监狱和监禁,考虑监禁危害的人口分布,并纳入种族化的暴露测量,这样我们才能更好地把握与美国监禁状态相关的危害程度。
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