Demography最新文献

Inequality research has often used non-Hispanic Whites as the reference category in measuring U.S. racial and ethnic health disparities, with less attention paid to diversity among Whites. Immigration patterns over the last several decades have led to greater ethnic heterogeneity among Whites, which could be hidden by the aggregate category. Using data from the National Health Interview Survey (2000-2018), we disaggregate non-Hispanic Whites by nativity status (U.S.- and foreign-born) and foreign-born region of birth (Europe, Former Soviet Union, and the Middle East) to examine diversity in health among adults aged 30+ (n = 290,361). We find that foreign-born Whites do not have a consistent immigrant health advantage over U.S.-born Whites, and the presence of an advantage further varies by birth region. Immigrants from the Former Soviet Union (FSU) are particularly disadvantaged, reporting worse self-rated health and higher rates of hypertension (high blood pressure) than U.S.-born and European-born Whites. Middle Eastern immigrants also fare worse than U.S.-born Whites but have health outcomes more similar to European immigrants than to immigrants from the FSU. These findings highlight considerable diversity in health among White subgroups that is masked by the aggregate White category. Future research must continue to monitor growing heterogeneity among Whites and consider more carefully their use as an aggregate category for gauging racial inequality.

It is well-known that childbearing is associated with age at migration, but most research has focused on foreign-born women who migrated as adults. Much less is known about male immigrants or immigrants who arrived as children, despite the importance of studying these groups to understand theories of adaptation and socialization. This study addresses these gaps with a case study of Sweden, using longitudinal whole-population data to analyze the role of age at arrival in determining childbearing. The results suggest that age at arrival affects fertility across the childbearing life course, although there is little evidence of critical ages at arrival. These results hold for women and men, particularly for immigrants from higher fertility origins, with more ambiguous results for immigrants from lower fertility origins. The main findings also persist after examining sources of selection and reverse causality using sex-specific family fixed-effects models and separate analyses for specific countries of birth. Therefore, the study provides evidence of an underlying process of childhood socialization, followed by adaptation, that is common for women and men who migrate. Theoretical implications are discussed, including the need for further work on the determinants and mechanisms of adaptation.

India is a leading global hot spot for extreme heat waves induced by climate change. The social demography of India is centered on its caste hierarchy rooted in endogamous occupational groups. We investigate the association between caste and climate inequality by studying occupational exposure during the 2019 and 2022 heat waves. We combine high spatiotemporal resolution heat stress information from satellite imagery with a large nationally and regionally representative labor force survey with rich socioeconomic and demographic information (n > 100,000 individuals). The slope of the heat stress dose-workhours curve corresponding to the marginalized caste groups is between 25% and 150% steeper than that for dominant caste groups for UTCI (Universal Thermal Climate Index) thresholds between 26°C and 35°C. Our models control for other economic-demographic confounders, including age, gender, education, and economic status, besides political-geographic controls and fixed effects. Our robust evidence for the association between caste identity and exposure to heat stress shows why adaptation and mitigation plans in India must account for the hierarchical social order characterized by the "division of laborers" along caste lines rather than the mere division of labor. Methodologically, our analysis demonstrates the utility of pairing satellite imagery and detailed demographic data.

Child maltreatment and child welfare system contact are both associated with an elevated risk of adverse outcomes in childhood, adolescence, and adulthood. Yet, data on variation in system contact are available for only a handful of countries, limiting knowledge about the societal correlates of system contact. As reported in this research note, we identified, collected, and harmonized administrative data on child welfare agency investigations, confirmed maltreatment, and placements into out-of-home care for 44 countries in the Global North. We analyzed 15 sociodemographic factors commonly associated with child maltreatment and child welfare system contact. Results support three core conclusions. First, data are much more available on late-stage system contact (e.g., foster care caseloads) than for early-stage system contact (e.g., investigations). Second, whereas early-stage contact tended to be on the rise in most countries, late-stage contact was stable or declining. Cross-national variation in these trends was generally less substantial than cross-national variation in levels of child welfare system contact, indicating relatively stable cross-national differences. Third, cross-national variation in out-of-home care largely reflected, but was not reducible to, regional and sociocultural variation: we find little evidence for universal drivers of foster care caseloads across the Global North.

From the late nineteenth century until the end of the twentieth century, the Canadian government collaborated with Christian churches to operate a network of boarding schools for Indigenous children to culturally and economically assimilate them. These children were taken from their families and placed into residential schools, where they were to be assimilated into the Eurocentric culture of the dominant society. Using a unique restricted-access database that asked Indigenous respondents about their family history with residential schools, in addition to questions on socioeconomic outcomes, I study the intergenerational effects of these schools. Despite previous research showing that residential schools increased human capital accumulation among attendees, I find that residential schools are associated with lower educational attainment among subsequent generations. I present evidence consistent with the notion that both cultural detachment and a breakdown in family relationships contributed to a reversal of the standard relationship between parents' and children's human capital. Encouragingly, I find suggestive evidence that greater access to cultural centers might buffer the harmful legacy of this historical trauma.

The evaluation of innovative web-based data collection methods that are convenient for the general public and that yield high-quality scientific information for demographic researchers has become critical. Web-based methods are crucial for researchers with nationally representative research objectives but without the resources of larger organizations. The web mode is appealing because it is inexpensive relative to in-person and telephone modes, and it affords a high level of privacy. We evaluate a sequential mixed-mode web/mail data collection, conducted with a national probability sample of U.S. adults from 2020 to 2022. The survey topics focus on reproductive health and family formation. We compare estimates from this survey to those obtained from a face-to-face national survey of population reproductive health: the 2017-2019 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG). This comparison allows for maximum design complexity, including a complex household screening operation (to identify households with persons aged 18-49). We evaluate the ability of this national web/mail data collection approach to (1) recruit a representative sample of U.S. persons aged 18-49; (2) replicate key survey estimates based on the NSFG, considering expected effects of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns and the alternative modes on the estimates; (3) reduce complex sample design effects relative to the NSFG; and (4) reduce the costs per completed survey.

Demographic studies on healthy life expectancy often rely on the Markov assumption, which fails to consider the duration of exposure to risk. To address this limitation, models like the duration-dependent multistate life table (DDMSLT) have been developed. However, these models cannot be directly applied to left-censored survey data, as they require knowledge of the time spent in the initial state, which is rarely known because of survey design. This research note presents a flexible approach for utilizing this type of survey data within the DDMSLT framework to estimate multistate life expectancies. The approach involves partially dropping left-censored observations and truncating the duration length after which duration dependence is assumed to be minimal. Utilizing the U.S. Health and Retirement Study, we apply this approach to compute disability-free/healthy life expectancy (HLE) among older adults in the United States and compare duration-dependent models to the typical multistate model with the Markov assumption. Findings suggest that while duration dependence is present in transition probabilities, its effect on HLE is averaged out. As a result, the bias in this case is minimal, and the Markov assumption provides a plausible and parsimonious estimate of HLE.

This study assesses the initial effects of the 2016 Brexit referendum on the mobility of academic scholars to and from the United Kingdom (UK). We leverage bibliometric data from millions of Scopus publications to infer changes in the countries of residence of published researchers by the changes in their institutional affiliations over time. We focus on a selected sample of active and internationally mobile researchers whose movements are traceable for every year between 2013 and 2019 and measure the changes in their migration patterns. Although we do not observe a brain drain following Brexit, we find evidence that scholars' mobility patterns changed after Brexit. Among the active researchers in our sample, their probability of leaving the UK increased by approximately 86% if their academic origin (country of first publication) was an EU country. For scholars with a UK academic origin, their post-Brexit probability of leaving the UK decreased by approximately 14%, and their probability of moving (back) to the UK increased by roughly 65%. Our analysis points to a compositional change in the academic origins of the researchers entering and leaving the UK as one of the first impacts of Brexit on the UK and EU academic workforce.

Qualitative research has documented mothers' critical role in supporting adult children during and after incarceration. Yet, the implications of incarceration for mothers have been relatively unexplored. Wealth research has also largely overlooked the influence of adult children on parental wealth. Using linked mother-child data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79) and the NLSY79 Child and Young Adult study, we investigate whether a child's incarceration influences mothers' wealth and whether accounting for child incarceration history helps explain the racial wealth gap. We use an event-study analysis and fixed-effects models to assess the evidence that children's incarceration affects three forms of wealth: financial assets, homeownership, and home equity. We find significant relationships between child incarceration and maternal wealth, but the importance of current versus prior child incarceration depends on the type of wealth considered. We also find that child incarceration is much more detrimental in dollar terms for White women than for Black or Hispanic women, but the financial asset penalty associated with child incarceration is larger in percentage terms for Black women than for White women.

Although the growing prevalence of primary-earning mothers is well established, this article uses 1996 and 2014 Survey of Income and Program Participation data to show U.S. mothers' rate of transition to primary-earner status increased by nearly 50% over the observed period. The rate of transition to primary earning predominantly increased among mothers with some college experience and mothers racialized as White, largely catching up to the rate among mothers identifying as Black. A decomposition analysis determined that relationship instability in marital and cohabiting relationships accounts for less than 20% of the increased transition rate, although somewhat more for Hispanic mothers. Roughly 75% of the growth in maternal primary-earning spells was attributed to situations in which the mother's earnings increased in isolation or, for mothers with a partner, often paired with a decrease in the partner's earnings. This latter circumstance was particularly the case for mothers identifying as Black or Asian. Findings show that most of the growth in mothers becoming primary earners from the mid-1990s to the mid-2010s occurred not because mothers experienced more household economic changes (frequency), but because household economic changes often increased mothers' relative financial contributions (impact). The impact component accounted for the entire increased transition rate across mothers' educational attainment and racial and ethnic identity.