Demography最新文献

This article presents an analysis of the relationship between kin propinquity, residential mobility, and the persistence of segregation among ancestry groups living in Stockholm, Sweden. Residential segregation between Swedish and non-Swedish ancestry groups is established when immigrants first settle in Stockholm, which creates disparities in the spatial distribution of kin for the children of immigrants compared with their Swedish counterparts. Using agent-based models, we show how preferences to live near kin are sufficient to maintain existing segregation but are not sufficient to generate it. We then apply discrete choice models of residential mobility to longitudinal residential history data from Swedish population registers to estimate the effects of kin on the neighborhood choices of movers, ages 18‒30, during the 1998‒2017 period. We find that people are more likely to move to neighborhoods that are near to kin, net of controls for sorting by ancestry, socioeconomic status, and life course characteristics. Counterfactual simulations of residential mobility show that kin propinquity contributes to higher levels of segregation between Swedish and non-Swedish ancestry groups. These effects are larger for groups already experiencing high levels of segregation from the Swedish majority. We situate these findings in the emerging literature on social structural sorting.

China has the largest number of patients with dementia in the world, and the rate of growth is expected to escalate further as the population ages. The majority of dementia patients rely on their families for care and assistance. Using demographic models of kinship, we provide quantitative estimates of the burden of dementia, from 1990 up to 2050, by illustrating the number of kin accessible to dementia patients, the dementia prevalence among kinship networks, and the dependency ratio of kin with dementia to working-age kin without dementia. We then compare the estimates of dementia burden across 194 countries and territories, accounting for historical trends in, and future projections of, mortality, fertility, and dementia prevalence. Our findings suggest that, unlike in other aging societies, China's aging crisis is exacerbated by the fact that, in addition to the alarming rise in the number of older adults in need of care, the number of potential family caregivers is also dropping at an unprecedented pace. The increase in dementia dependency ratio is expected to exceed the increases in most other countries across East Asia, Western Europe, and the United States. These findings have important implications for understanding the evolution of care networks for older adults in China over time and from a cross-country comparative perspective.

Begum et al. (2018) examined gender bias in parental attitudes using an experimental approach in rural Bangladesh. Households were reported as randomly assigned to treatment conditions in a lab-in-the-field allocation task. We show that the group assignment was inherited from Islam (2019), a previous, nonrandomized experiment conducted in the same region. The lack of randomization contradicts the design descriptions provided by the authors in Begum et al. (2018) and elsewhere and raises concerns about the validity of comparisons across treatment groups. This also points to serious shortcomings in the reporting and transparency of the study design-issues that mirror those that led to the retraction of Islam (2019) from the European Economic Review.

Estimates of future migration patterns are of broad interest in demography. Forced migration, including refugee and asylum seekers, plays an important role in overall migration patterns but is notoriously difficult to forecast. Focusing on refugees and asylum seekers, we propose a modeling pipeline based on Bayesian hierarchical time-series modeling for projecting refugee population official statistics by country of origin using data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. Our approach is based on a conceptual model of refugee and asylum seeker populations following growth and decline phases, separated by a peak. The growth and decline phases are modeled by logistic growth and decline through an interrupted logistic process model. We evaluate our method through a set of validation exercises that show it has good performance for forecasts at 1-, 5-, and 10-year horizons, and we present projections for 35 countries of origin of large refugee and asylum seeker populations.

In this research note we address measurement challenges in the study of residential segregation to advance our understanding of the segregation of Latino and Asian ethnic subgroups. Our primary purpose is to address some of the key methodological barriers to advancement in this area, and we also answer this question: Do we miss important patterns of segregation when we study Latino and Asian panethnic groups versus ethnic subgroups? Research has been hindered by problems with segregation index bias that are exacerbated when studying the segregation of smaller groups, as well as by a limited understanding of different patterns of uneven distribution that certain segregation indices, such as the dissimilarity index, cannot capture. Using a carefully chosen segregation index corrected for index bias, we find some variation in Latino and Asian ethnic subgroup segregation that warrants disaggregating panethnic groups, but more importantly we find that segregation of these groups is much lower than previously understood. This latter finding is because index bias and the choice of segregation index can have major impacts on our understanding of these patterns, with the separation index emerging as a superior method of measurement. These findings support the study of ethnic subgroup residential segregation, so long as researchers make careful decisions about segregation measurement.

Adverse childbearing experiences, such as preterm births and neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) stays, are especially prevalent among Black and Hispanic pregnant people. In this research note, we provide a novel way of considering racial and ethnic patterns regarding adverse childbearing experiences by analyzing the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79; N = 3,637). We use latent class analysis to identify four specific classes of adverse experiences that are unequally distributed within and across racial and ethnic groups. These four classes-Minimal Complications, High Childbearing Complications, Complex Gestation, and Increased Medicalized Interventions-represent unique types of reproductive health outcomes and interactions within the reproductive health care system. Distributions across these classes reveal which racial and ethnic groups are most at risk for multiple pregnancy and gestational complications (e.g., late pregnancy losses, closely spaced births), highly medicalized childbearing experiences (e.g., C-sections, NICU stays), and a broad constellation of adverse childbearing-related outcomes. Our research note draws attention to how specific childbearing experiences cluster together, reflecting broader racial and ethnic structures and potentially mattering for future health and well-being outcomes.

A large body of research shows that parental unemployment has negative consequences for children's mental health. However, we know much less about the reverse pattern in intergenerational crossover effects. This study fills the gap by showing how unemployment among adult children is related to parents' mental health, and how this relationship is moderated by the geographical distance separating parents from their children. We analyze longitudinal data from seven of the first eight waves of the SHARE survey for 16 European countries from 2004 to 2020. Our analytic sample consists of 299,755 distinct observations for 78,837 parent-child dyads. We employ correlated random-effects models, which control for unobserved fixed-in-time confounders and allow for interacting time-varying observed characteristics in an appropriate way. Our results show that, generally, adult children's unemployment affects parental mental health negatively. Adult children's unemployment has particularly strong negative consequences for the mental health of mothers who coreside with their children. Regarding fathers, relatively larger effects emerge in the group with children who live near enough to have regular interactions but not close enough to provide direct instrumental support. Our findings highlight the role of coresidence and distance in shaping the interrelatedness of economic well-being and health across generations.

This study examines the relationship between community violence and the use and provision of contraception in Mexico, where family planning is a long-standing policy priority and the "war on drugs" has led to chronically high levels of violence. We adopt a two-step approach. First, we investigate the association between women's exposure to violence and first contraceptive use. Combining individual-level data (n  =  86,219) from two waves of the National Survey of Demographic Dynamics (ENADID) with information on monthly municipality-level homicides in event-history models, we analyze the timing and method of women's first contraceptive use and the source of first contraception. Second, leveraging rare data from Mexico's Ministry of Health in clinic fixed-effects models, we study the association between homicides and contraceptive provision from public clinics. Results show strong positive associations between community violence and both the transition to first contraceptive use and the contraceptive provision of reversible methods. These relationships are stronger in the long term; one more homicide per 10,000 population during the past five years is associated with triple the risk of initiating contraceptive use and two to three more reversible contraception users served in each public clinic per month. The findings suggest increasing contraceptive vigilance and fertility regulation preferences-but also healthcare system resilience-in times of insecurity.