Demography最新文献

Exposure to infectious diseases in early life has been linked to increased mortality risk in later life in high-disease settings, such as eighteenth- and nineteenth-century Europe. Less is known about the long-term effects of early-life disease exposure in milder disease environments. This study estimates heterogeneous effects from disease exposure in infancy on later-life mortality in twentieth-century Sweden, by socioeconomic status at birth and sex. Using historical population data for southern Sweden, we study 11,515 individuals who were born in 1905-1929 from age 1 until age 85. We measure exposure to disease using the local post-early neonatal mortality rate in the first 12 months after birth and apply flexible parametric survival models. For females, we find a negative effect on life expectancy (scarring) at ages 1-85 following high disease exposure in infancy, particularly for those born to unskilled workers. For males, we find no negative effect on later-life survival, likely because stronger mortality selection in infancy outweighs scarring. Thus, even as the incidence of infectious diseases declined at the start of the twentieth century, early-life disease exposure generated long-lasting negative but heterogeneous population health effects.

In this article, we reconstruct prospective intergenerational educational mobility and explore fertility's role in this process for women born between 1925 and 1950 in 12 European countries. We do so by combining high-quality retrospective data (Generations and Gender Survey) and low-requirement prospective datasets using an inferential method developed and advanced in prior research. Our analysis shows that the negative educational fertility gradient partly compensates for the inequality in prospective mobility rates between lower and higher educated women and is most pronounced in high-inequality contexts. However, fertility's role is small and declining and thus does not account for much of the differences in mobility rates between countries. We also explore the relative importance of sibship size effects in mediating the effect of fertility gradient, finding it negligible. Finally, we explore the correspondence between prospective and retrospective estimates in the reconstruction of prospective mobility rates and suggest why the former, when available, must be preferred.

Many claim a high prevalence of single motherhood plays a significant role in America's high child poverty. Using the Luxembourg Income Study, we compare the "prevalences and penalties" for child poverty across 30 rich democracies and within the United States over time (1979-2019). Several descriptive patterns contradict the importance of single motherhood. The U.S. prevalence of single motherhood is cross-nationally moderate and typical and is historically stable. Also, child poverty and the prevalence of single motherhood have trended in opposite directions in recent decades in the United States. More important than the prevalence of single motherhood, the United States stands out for having the highest penalty across 30 rich democracies. Counterfactual simulations demonstrate that reducing single motherhood would not substantially reduce child poverty. Even if there was zero single motherhood, (1) the United States would not change from having the fourth-highest child poverty rate, (2) the 41-year trend in child poverty would be very similar, and (3) the extreme racial inequalities in child poverty would not decline. Rather than the prevalence of single motherhood, the high penalty for single motherhood and extremely high Black and Latino child poverty rates, which exist regardless of single motherhood, are far more important to America's high child poverty.

The 2020 decennial census provides new insights into the demography of same-sex households and can shed light on ongoing debates in urban and gayborhood studies. Although the U.S. Census gives a vast undercount of the LGBTQ population, it is still the largest source of nationally representative data on same-sex households and is accessible over three time points (2000, 2010, 2020). In this research note, we use 2020 census data to examine the residential patterns of same-sex households down to the neighborhood level. By employing the index of dissimilarity, we present results for the 100 largest U.S. cities and 100 largest metropolitan areas that demonstrate moderate yet persistent segregation. In a continuation of prior trends, male same-sex households remain more segregated from different-sex households than do female same-sex households. We find moderate levels of within-group segregation by gender and marital status-representing new demographic trends. Finally, metropolitan areas have a higher dissimilarity index than cities, revealing greater levels of segregation when factoring in suburban areas. We discuss these trends in light of debates regarding the spatial organization of sexuality in residential contexts and outline future avenues for research utilizing recently released 2020 census data.

The introduction of unilateral divorce legislation (UDL) starting in the late 1960s led to spikes in U.S. divorce rates. We ask whether making divorce easier affected the educational structure of marriage. Using marriage and divorce certificate data covering 1970-1988, we provide new evidence on the evolution of the educational structure of marriage inflows (newlyweds) and outflows (divorces). Next, we leverage the timing of UDL introduction across states to estimate its effects on both flows. We find that UDL affected the educational structure of divorce but not of new marriages: it made generally unstable hypogamous couples (women married to less educated partners) less likely to divorce and made homogamous couples more stable than hypergamous ones (women married to more educated partners).

van Raalte et al. (2023) alerted demographers to the potential dangers of calculating cohort measures from the "diagonals" of gridded age-period (AP) data. In the case of cohort fertility, however, a minor change to the estimation procedure can mitigate the trend and cohort size biases that the authors identify. With an appropriate algorithm, researchers can estimate cohort fertility indices from AP data quite well.

Access to safe and stable housing is important for child and adult well-being. Yet many low-income households face severe challenges in maintaining stable housing. In this article, we examine the impact of the 2021 temporary expansion to the Child Tax Credit (CTC) on housing affordability and the living arrangements of families with low incomes. We employ a parameterized difference-in-differences method and leverage national data from a sample of parents who are receiving or recently received Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits (N = ∼20,500), many of whom became newly eligible for the CTC. We find that the monthly CTC reduced parents' past-due rent/mortgages (both amounts and incidence) and their reports of potential moves due to difficulties affording rent/mortgages. The CTC increased the likelihood that parents reported a change in their living arrangements and reduced their household size, both effects driven by fewer mothers living with a partner (and not a reduction in doubling up). We find some differences in effects by race and ethnicity and earnings. Our findings illustrate that the monthly credit improved low-income parents' ability to afford housing, gain residential independence from partners, and reduce the number of people residing in their household.

Macro-level events such as elections can improve or harm population health across existing axes of stratification through policy changes and signals of inclusion or threat. This study investigates whether rates of, and disparities in, adverse birth outcomes between racialized and nativity groups changed after Donald Trump's November 2016 election, a period characterized by increases in xenophobic and racist messages, policies, and actions in the United States. Using data from 15,568,710 U.S. births between November 2012 and November 2018, we find that adverse birth outcomes increased after Trump's election among U.S.- and foreign-born mothers racialized as Black, Hispanic, and Asian and Pacific Islander (API), compared with the period encompassing the two Obama presidencies. Results for Whites suggest no change or a slight decrease in adverse outcomes following Trump's election, yet this finding was not robust to checks for seasonality. Black-White, Hispanic-White, and API-White disparities in adverse birth outcomes widened among both U.S.- and foreign-born mothers after Trump's election. Our findings suggest that Trump's election was a racist and xenophobic macro-level political event that undermined the health of infants born to non-White mothers in the United States.

This research note examines historical trends in lifespan inequality and the intergenerational transmission of lifespan and longevity in the United States over the eighteenth, nineteenth, and twentieth centuries. We contribute to the literature by expanding the estimates of the familial component beyond parent-child associations to include multigenerational and horizontal classes of relatives of different sexes. We also examine how lifespan inequality and the role of the family in lifespan and longevity changed over time. We address the challenge of studying extended family networks in historical times by leveraging recent online crowdsourced genealogical data. Results confirm the presence of a familial component for all classes of relatives considered and highlight a stronger association for horizontal than for vertical relationships. Despite decreasing lifespan inequality, we find no evidence of decreased familial lifespan stratification throughout history. If anything, the results suggest a strengthening of the parent-child association. Finally, the results contribute to the debate on the representativeness and usability of crowdsourced genealogical data by emphasizing the importance of sample selection based on the quality of the information collected.

A burgeoning demographic literature documents the exceedingly high rates at which contemporary cohorts of women across the Global South experience the death of their children-even amid historic declines in child mortality. Yet, the patterning of maternal bereavement remains underinvestigated, as does the extent to which it replicates across generations of the same family. To that end, we ask: Are the surviving daughters of bereaved mothers more likely to eventually experience maternal bereavement? How does the intergenerational clustering of maternal bereavement vary across countries and cohorts? To answer these questions, we make use of Demographic and Health Survey Program data from 50 low- and middle-income countries, encompassing data on 1.05 million women and their mothers spanning three decadal birth cohorts. Descriptive results demonstrate that maternal bereavement is increasingly patterned intergenerationally across cohorts, with most women experiencing the same fate as their mothers. Multivariable hazard models further show that, on average, women whose mothers were maternally bereaved have significantly increased odds of losing a child themselves. In most countries, the association is stable across cohorts; however, in select countries, the risk associated with having a bereaved mother is shrinking among more recent birth cohorts.