Demography最新文献

This research note focuses on accurately documenting the trends in educational resemblance between husbands and wives in South Korea over six decades, from 1960 to 2020. Having undergone rapid social changes in recent history, including industrialization, economic development, and educational expansion, Korea offers a compelling context for studying long-term changes in educational assortative mating across different stages of development. Using 2% microsamples from 13 census datasets collected between 1960 and 2020, we construct marriage tables cross-classifying six educational levels of husbands and wives, both aged 25 to 45. Log-multiplicative layer effect models are applied to assess the husband‒wife association, controlling for changing marginal distributions of both spouses' educational levels. Our analysis of 843,527 married couples shows that the association between husbands' and wives' education increases to a peak around 1995, after which it continuously declines. The inverted U-shape trend remains robust whether analyzing current or first marriages of varying duration and across different types of log-linear models. We provide theoretical and empirical discussions of major macro-level trends, especially the timing and gendered patterns of educational expansion, in Korea to contextualize the observed patterns of educational assortative mating.

The presence of exogamous consensual unions (marriages and cohabitations) is an important indicator of social closeness between groups. European research on intermarriage has focused on unions between minority groups and the native majority population, highlighting that religion, especially Islam, constitutes a bright boundary. In diversifying societies, however, opportunities for union formation between minority groups with distinct national origins are increasing. Yet, we know little about partnership patterns among these groups, particularly whether different Muslim groups coalesce through intergroup unions. Using full-population register data from the Netherlands (1999‒2023), we analyze union formation across any combination of the 21 largest national origin groups present on the partnership market. Our findings reveal that unions involving partners from Muslim groups originating from different countries remain strikingly rare overall compared with endogamy within national origin groups, indicating the persistence of national legacies rather than exclusively religious closure. Boundaries for union formation between Muslim groups do not weaken meaningfully across immigrant generations and time. Among non-Muslim groups, by contrast, unions are more commonly formed within broader panethnic "melting pots." Overall, these results underscore the need for a more nuanced understanding of religious boundaries and panethnicity in union formation in Europe.

The shift of immigration enforcement to local communities has amplified anti-immigrant sentiment and enabled the unprecedented expansion of mass deportation systems. This study examines one such effort-the 287(g) program, which empowers local law enforcement to enforce U.S. immigration laws-and its effects on the residential segregation of Latinos. Using a difference-in-differences design that compares counties that implemented 287(g) with applicant counties that did not implement, we find that these policies significantly slowed declines in Latino‒White segregation, particularly in early-adopting Southern counties, where enforcement was most aggressive. We detect no effects on Black‒White or Latino‒Black segregation. Our analysis also suggests that these effects are driven by shifts in residential mobility and migration behaviors among Latino households, as enforcement amplified economic vulnerability, fear, and spatial isolation. These results indicate that interior immigration enforcement functions as a structural barrier to Latino integration, with downstream consequences for racial stratification and neighborhood inequality.

Estimates of future migration patterns are of broad interest in demography. Forced migration, including refugee and asylum seekers, plays an important role in overall migration patterns but is notoriously difficult to forecast. Focusing on refugees and asylum seekers, we propose a modeling pipeline based on Bayesian hierarchical time-series modeling for projecting refugee population official statistics by country of origin using data from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. Our approach is based on a conceptual model of refugee and asylum seeker populations following growth and decline phases, separated by a peak. The growth and decline phases are modeled by logistic growth and decline through an interrupted logistic process model. We evaluate our method through a set of validation exercises that show it has good performance for forecasts at 1-, 5-, and 10-year horizons, and we present projections for 35 countries of origin of large refugee and asylum seeker populations.

China has the largest number of patients with dementia in the world, and the rate of growth is expected to escalate further as the population ages. The majority of dementia patients rely on their families for care and assistance. Using demographic models of kinship, we provide quantitative estimates of the burden of dementia, from 1990 up to 2050, by illustrating the number of kin accessible to dementia patients, the dementia prevalence among kinship networks, and the dependency ratio of kin with dementia to working-age kin without dementia. We then compare the estimates of dementia burden across 194 countries and territories, accounting for historical trends in, and future projections of, mortality, fertility, and dementia prevalence. Our findings suggest that, unlike in other aging societies, China's aging crisis is exacerbated by the fact that, in addition to the alarming rise in the number of older adults in need of care, the number of potential family caregivers is also dropping at an unprecedented pace. The increase in dementia dependency ratio is expected to exceed the increases in most other countries across East Asia, Western Europe, and the United States. These findings have important implications for understanding the evolution of care networks for older adults in China over time and from a cross-country comparative perspective.

A sizable number of children in low- and middle-income countries experience separation from their parents due to labor migration. While scholarship has examined parental migration effects during school years and adolescence, few studies have examined the effect of migration on developmental outcomes in early childhood, a critical period characterized by a high degree of developmental plasticity and sensitivity. In addition, almost all previous work has relied on cross-sectional data, treating migration-induced family living arrangements as a static, time-invariant measure. However, parental migration is often temporary and circular, exposing children to multiple transitions that vary in timing and duration. To address these two limitations in the literature, the present study follows a panel of more than 4,000 young children in the China Family Panel Survey from 2010 to 2018 and examines early childhood outcomes using a counterfactual causal-inference framework with time-varying exposure. My results show that the effect of parental migration on children's outcomes depends on whether one versus both parents migrated and at what child age the parental migration happened. Specifically, one-parent out-migration is less detrimental to child development than both-parent out-migration. Parental migration impacts specific developmental domains depending on children's sensitive periods of development, with early absence being most consequential for physical growth and later migration being most consequential for noncognitive skills. The study offers a causal framework to better understand migration as a time-varying process, contributes to family demography by theorizing parental migration as a unique source of family complexity, and deepens our understanding of the toll that parental absence takes on human capital.

In this research note we address measurement challenges in the study of residential segregation to advance our understanding of the segregation of Latino and Asian ethnic subgroups. Our primary purpose is to address some of the key methodological barriers to advancement in this area, and we also answer this question: Do we miss important patterns of segregation when we study Latino and Asian panethnic groups versus ethnic subgroups? Research has been hindered by problems with segregation index bias that are exacerbated when studying the segregation of smaller groups, as well as by a limited understanding of different patterns of uneven distribution that certain segregation indices, such as the dissimilarity index, cannot capture. Using a carefully chosen segregation index corrected for index bias, we find some variation in Latino and Asian ethnic subgroup segregation that warrants disaggregating panethnic groups, but more importantly we find that segregation of these groups is much lower than previously understood. This latter finding is because index bias and the choice of segregation index can have major impacts on our understanding of these patterns, with the separation index emerging as a superior method of measurement. These findings support the study of ethnic subgroup residential segregation, so long as researchers make careful decisions about segregation measurement.

Although a growing proportion of older adults lead active and productive lives until later ages, little is known about how they balance paid work, other forms of productive aging, family, and leisure, or how this balancing may affect the interconnectedness of different generations. Using longitudinal, population-based data from Denmark, we investigate informal intergenerational help provision over time and the factors influencing the observed change from 1997 to 2017 for adults aged 52-77. Applying the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition technique, we analyze trends in intergenerational help by older adults and examine whether changes in helping behavior are attributable to active aging or other changes within the population. We observe distinctly different helping behavior trends by age: a lower percentage of individuals aged 52-62 provided help in 2017 than in 1997, whereas a larger percentage of those aged 67-77 provided help in 2017 than in 1997. Although the increase in work participation does not add to declining levels of help to adult children, declining grandparenthood had a significant negative effect on helping behavior. In contrast, for those with grandchildren, helping behavior intensified over time.

A growing body of research provides evidence of extensive economic and health disparities faced by migrant farmworkers and their families, underscoring the need for livable wages, health insurance, and better working conditions. Recently, programs have provided payment to workers from corporate-supported premiums, yet no studies have explored the impacts of such programs on the health of the communities they target. In this study, we investigate whether the implementation of a workers' rights organization program within the agriculture industry promoted health in farmworker communities by evaluating changes in infant health outcomes. Using restricted birth records data from the National Vital Statistics System from 2006 to 2018, we show that the adoption of the Fair Food Program was associated with reductions in low-weight births among foreign-born mothers from Latin America. These results underscore how strengthening labor and employment conditions for birthing parents can mitigate possible long-term or latent adverse health outcomes among U.S.-born children.

Adverse childbearing experiences, such as preterm births and neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) stays, are especially prevalent among Black and Hispanic pregnant people. In this research note, we provide a novel way of considering racial and ethnic patterns regarding adverse childbearing experiences by analyzing the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79; N = 3,637). We use latent class analysis to identify four specific classes of adverse experiences that are unequally distributed within and across racial and ethnic groups. These four classes-Minimal Complications, High Childbearing Complications, Complex Gestation, and Increased Medicalized Interventions-represent unique types of reproductive health outcomes and interactions within the reproductive health care system. Distributions across these classes reveal which racial and ethnic groups are most at risk for multiple pregnancy and gestational complications (e.g., late pregnancy losses, closely spaced births), highly medicalized childbearing experiences (e.g., C-sections, NICU stays), and a broad constellation of adverse childbearing-related outcomes. Our research note draws attention to how specific childbearing experiences cluster together, reflecting broader racial and ethnic structures and potentially mattering for future health and well-being outcomes.